47 Observations for the 2012 NFL Season

[Cudders]

It runs a bit long (as usual), and I rambled in some spots, but I came up with a preseason list of forty-seven observations, ending with my preseason Super Bowl XLVII pick. I don’t expect anyone to read every word, so I bolded the beginning of each section to make it easier to skim over.

1.) Most Valuable Player: Drew Brees. Despite their tumultuous off-season, I’m not writing off the Saints. In fact, I think this team might be even more talented than their Super Bowl-winning counterparts. Now that his contract situation is sorted out, Brees is a prime candidate to post another monster, video game-esque campaign. Given the circumstances surrounding the team, if New Orleans achieves some team success and Brees performs at his usual level, he’s the frontrunner for the award. The media just wouldn’t be able to resist the convenient narrative of a “coachless” team succeeding on the back of its ultra-valuable, superstar quarterback.

2.) Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brady. This concession is a true toss-up between Brady and Rodgers for me. I don’t think it’s likely another skill player, be it a healthy Arian Foster or Calvin Johnson, can come close to matching the kind of production necessary to dethrone the elite quarterbacks. And these three quarterbacks are all producing at historic levels right now. I give the slight edge to Brady because I believe the Patriots will ride the easiest schedule in the NFL to the best regular season record and he’ll have comparable numbers to boot. It’s so, so close though.

3.) Defensive Player of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul. It’s been unbelievable to watch JPP evolve into one of the most complete, dominant defensive ends in football. When he was coming out, his freakish athleticism and tools were salivating, but I never figured he would cement himself as such a multi-dimensional game-changer so soon. He’s an offensive linemen’s nightmare. Long arms, quick hands, explosive, powerful, and a developing repertoire of pass rush moves. Considering his capable supporting cast along the line in New York, he will see more one-on-ones than he should and has an excellent chance to lead the pack in sacks, which is what this award rewards most of the time.

As a runner-up, I’ll take DeMarcus Ware. He’s too good to not win one at some point in his career. He’s the most versatile 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Exceptional at rushing the passer and dropping into coverage and quite solid at setting the edge, too.

4.) Breakout Offensive Star: Robert Meachem. Meachem established himself as a productive part of New Orleans’ wide receiver committee, but I think he’s capable of even bigger things in San Diego. He generated a lot of explosive gains for the Saints offense and is a proven deep threat that can stretch seams. He’s underrated as an all-around receiver though. He can run the entire route tree and I expect that he’ll replace or exceed Vincent Jackson’s production. A stat line somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 REC / 1200 YDS / 10 TD wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest bit.

5.) Breakout Defensive Star: Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins is part of the new wave of safeties. A former corner that can accept some man responsibilities, roam as a centerfielder, and won’t compromise the defense down the middle in the running game. He’s instinctive and versatile. Given to a creative coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo, Jenkins is a dangerous defensive chess piece. With the opportunities this scheme should afford, I expect Jenkins to make things happen on the backend of the Saints defense and solidify himself as a top safety.

6.) Most Underrated: Jay Cutler and Calais Campbell. Jay Cutler has quietly played some very good football with the Bears. In fact, since going to Chicago, I think he’s entrenched himself as a top ten quarterback. Everyone knows about his legendary cannon, but Cutler has become more than just a gunslinger with a huge arm. He has made his teammates better and managed to survive behind a disjointed line that would have gotten most quarterbacks killed. And he did it while his offensive coordinator continued to dial up slow-developing routes off five- or seven-step drops that just exacerbated the unit’s fundamental problems. Cutler hasn’t just had some impressive games here and there. Cutler has had a string of impressive games and he’s sprinkled in some MVP-caliber performances, too.

On the defensive end, Calais Campbell deserves a lot more love than he gets. Outside of Haloti Ngata and Justin Smith, there’s not a better five-technique in the NFL and Campbell is still dripping with frightening potential. He’s got a massive frame with surprising suddenness for that size and active hands and feet. He’s versatile enough to line up at a bunch of different spots along both fronts. Five-technique, three-technique, one-technique, or as a base end in a traditional 4-3. He can fill all of those roles in certain situations and let coordinators be flexible. He can generate pressure, he can stuff the run, he can eat space to free up teammates, and he can make an impact on special teams. Even if the box score doesn’t reflect it each time out, Campbell has developed into a disruptive force that leaves his fingerprints all over the game.

7.) Most Overrated: DeSean Jackson and Clay Matthews III. DeSean Jackson isn’t close to being a number one receiver. He’s a good-to-great number two, depending on the situation opposite him. He’s too one-dimensional to be considered more than that. And he’s not even as elite in that regard as most people consider him. I’ve heard him called the best deep threat in the NFL more than once and he wouldn’t even crack the top five for me. He’s got the kind of rare, blistering speed to get behind defenses and separate, but that’s not the sole facet of an elite deep threat. If a secondary maintains coverage integrity and challenges him downfield, Jackson is largely neutralized. He’s not the type of receiver that wins 50-50 balls. He’s super fast and takes the top off and creates some space and works well with what the Eagles do, sure, but he’s not as good as his press clippings would seem to suggest.

Clay Matthews III is a similar case. Now, Matthews is a great piece of the puzzle in Dom Capers’ defense, but he doesn’t belong in the conversation of best edge rushers. There’s a clear separation between him and the best of the best. He still contributes a lot of things to a defense though. He just isn’t a top-flight pass rusher or a strong run defender. That said, in all fairness, his value has returned to a more reasonable level and he is relentless in his approach, so I don’t see him disappearing soon. But some of the extravagant claims that have been made on his behalf are so far past ridiculous that I still can’t forget them.

8.) Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning. If Manning has a clean bill of health as reported, he’s a virtual lock to win. I can’t recall a more publicized incident of a superstar being sidelined for a season and then the subsequent circus surrounding their return from injured reserve. From the multiple neck fusion surgeries to the whispers of retirement to the end of an era in Indianapolis to the unseating of Tebow in Denver. If Manning is healed up and prepared for the week-to-week rigors, he will make the Broncos a much better football team. Despite their postseason berth and miraculous win over Pittsburgh, Denver still wasn’t a team poised to do serious damage. Now, with Manning under center and good building blocks on defense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Broncos push some of the more established contenders.

9.) Coach of the Year: Gary Kubiak. If it weren’t for Jim Harbaugh’s impressive NFL debut, Kubiak would’ve been an excellent choice for this award last season. He endured a rash of injuries at impact positions on both sides of the ball and still steered the Texans to their franchise’s first postseason appearance. I expect Kubiak to replicate Houston’s regular season success and make even more noise in the second season. In fact, the Texans are one of the three teams I can see coming out of the AFC.

As a dark horse, Joe Vitt wouldn’t surprise me either, but I think the six-game suspension works against him in the end. Much like Brees, it’s an angle that the media could ride though.

10.) The Hot Seat: Andy Reid and Norv Turner. The pressure on Reid has ramped up to the point of redlining. After their prized haul of free agents and subsequent letdown and current preseason predictions, Reid needs to deliver a deep postseason run to save his job. This roster is too talented to be just a mid-table team. Reid made a bunch of questionable coaching decisions last season and if the Eagles don’t live up to their expectations again, something will have to change in Philadelphia to placate the frenzied fans and local media. And it’s easier to change the coach than it is the high-priced personnel.

As for Norv Turner, I’m not even sure how he has held onto his job for this long. The man is an undisputed offensive genius, but he’s not head coach material. He’s too soft. Faced with a stronger division than ever, and a mediocre track record, I don’t see how he is still standing once the dust settles. He would need a miraculous run to save him now. That said, after San Diego axes him, he will become one of the hottest commodities in the NFL because offensive coordinators like Norv Turner are hard to find. And Turner is a mastermind that can transform an entire unit. His schemes are brilliant and he knows how to develop quarterbacks well. He’ll be one of the biggest difference-makers available next off-season. Think Wade Phillips. Same situation, different side of the ball.

11.) Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck. Entering the NFL and experiencing immediate success as a passer is a big-time advantage for the award, so I think someone like Trent Richardson would need a combination of factors to happen for him to win it. For all intents and purposes, it’s a two-horse race between Luck and Robert Griffin III. At this point, I favor Luck because he’s the more polished product. He’s got more experience managing the game, a better command of the passing game’s subtleties, and an easier slate of divisional games. RGIII isn’t as familiar with the intermediate passing game and tends to react slower in the pocket when under pressure. Although, I don’t doubt Shanahan tailors the scheme to put him in positions to succeed as a rookie. Those naked bootlegs are perfect for RGIII. And he’s got dizzying potential to win voters over.

12.) Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly. Kuechly is a fairly safe pick. Linebackers usually have the most seamless transition to the NFL and Kuechly is one of the most NFL-ready prospects I’ve seen at the position. He’s got an impressive blend of instincts and athleticism. Plus, he plays even faster than he times. His first step almost always takes him in the direction of the football. With the Panthers gravitating toward the national spotlight, I expect Kuechly to shine brightly next to Beason and receive well-deserved accolades. He’s a throwback, three-down linebacker and those are a dying breed in this era of specialization.

13.) Mid-Round Rookie Watch: Joe Adams and Josh Chapman. Joe Adams is electric. I love him as a slot for Cam Newton and I believe he can produce in that situation right from the start. He is an explosive athlete, but Petrino’s offense at Arkansas endowed him wither better receiving skills than he’s given credit for. He has a lot of experience working the inside of the field and his route-running shows it. He gears up and down for variance and snaps out of his breaks to create separation. He was such an excellent pick for the Panthers.

Josh Chapman is another mid-rounder that I think can make immediate, noticeable contributions. The Colts are starved for defensive starters and Chapman fills a huge hole in the middle of Chuck Pagano’s new 3-4 defense. Chapman is tough as nails, stout at the point of attack, and wide. In terms of nose tackle prospects, I thought Chapman was the most prepared for NFL action. The Colts should consider it a blessing that he fell to them in the fifth.

14.) Best Draft Classes: Steelers and Eagles. These two franchises struck the perfect balance and patched present holes with potential immediate contributors without mortgaging their futures.

For the Steelers, I loved the David DeCastro and Mike Adams picks. Their offensive line has been somewhat of a sore spot and both rookies have an excellent chance to contribute from the start and become long-term fixtures up front. Both are mauling road-graders and I like that Pittsburgh is attempting to add some toughness back to that line. Their third and fourth picks even have short-term and long-term upside. Sean Spence has the skill set to be a sub-package specialist for them and Alameda Ta’amu brings much-needed size in the middle, even though I think he’s a little too undisciplined as a run-plugger at this point. I’m interested to see how undrafted free agent Robert Golden does as well. The defensive backfield is their biggest question mark and Golden has experience playing at both corner and safety.

I feel the Eagles nailed their selections, too. I loved just about each of them. Fletcher Cox falling to fourteen was unbelievable for them. He is another big cog along that line and I think Jim Washburn molds him into something special. If he can provide some push up the gut, that defensive line could be straight filth. One of their biggest issues last season on defense was lackluster linebacker production, which effectively caps the overall upside of the Wide-9 scheme because it relies heavily on smart second level play. I was a huge fan of Mychal Kendricks as a prospect and I think they’ve found an instant upgrade there with him. Vinny Curry has a very good combination of explosiveness and relentlessness and it’s never a bad idea to stock up on pass rushers. Brandon Boykin profiles as a useful slot corner. Marvin McNutt fills a role next to speedsters like Jackson and Maclin, much like Jason Avant. Brandon Washington is a versatile, swing lineman for depth purposes. Chris Polk is a complement to LeSean and Dion Lewis if his checkered medical past works itself out. Even Nick Foles is a worthwhile quarterback to stash behind Vick and attempt to develop. From top-to-bottom, I loved this class.

15.) On the Clock: Jacksonville Jaguars. I can’t envision a realistic scenario that leads to Jacksonville picking outside of the top five next April. In fact, I think the Jaguars are a solid choice for the first overall selection. Their quarterback situation is an absolute mess with Blaine Gabbert. Their best offensive weapon is disgruntled and a logical candidate for a letdown season. Their wide receiver corps is loaded with a bunch of mediocre or unproven options. And, while their defense is quite solid across the board, it figures to be left on the field and expected to shoulder the load. I just don’t see much upside from this bunch. The offense is just too much of a question mark. If Maurice Jones-Drew shows wear from the beating he took last season or begins to suffer nagging injuries from missing camp, the Jaguars will struggle to accomplish much on the offensive end on a consistent basis. And Gabbert hasn’t shown he’s capable of elevating a unit for even small stretches.

The Vikings are notable contenders for the same honor though. The NFC North is brutal and their non-divisional schedule is no cupcake either. Most of their “winnable” games appear to be frontloaded. Couple that with being a green team in transition, and I see some struggles on the horizon.

16.) The Patriots addressed some of their defensive concerns in the off-season, but that wasn’t their most impactful addition. Brandon Lloyd was their biggest addition. As pathetic as their defense was last season, the team was still within reach of winning the Super Bowl because of that offense. And their strength just got even stronger. Last season, the Patriot wide receivers struggled to create consistent separation on the outside. Lloyd comes into New England with familiarity in the system and an ability to win one-on-ones on the perimeter. He gives Brady another toy to play with on Sunday and makes that offense tougher to defend. And further improvement in the offensive department, where New England has thrived, can be just as big as shoring up some of those defensive deficiencies.

With regard to first-rounders Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower, I don’t see either being the catalyst to a shocking defensive turnaround in New England. Early reports from training camp seem to suggest that the Patriots are planning to play a lot of 4-3 this year. While I love Jones in that front, it makes the Hightower pick somewhat of a head-scratcher because I don’t feel it maximized value. Even more so when considering the Patriots have a capable stack-and-shed linebacker in Brandon Spikes and New England surrendered extra picks to get Hightower. Now, Hightower can be a downhill run-thumper in the 4-3, but that role in that defense doesn’t hold a first-round grade. It will be interesting to see where Hightower fits in third-down situations. I wouldn’t want to trust him much in coverage and I was never impressed with what he showed rushing the passer in college. That said, I think Hightower has some untapped athletic potential. He’s listed at 270 lbs. right now. That’s far too big. There’s no reason for him to be that huge. If he can cut some of that weight and gain some lateral explosiveness, I think he becomes a better linebacker and a more useful pick.

While I’m a big supporter of Chandler Jones and loved the aggressiveness involved in moving up to get him, his biggest asset right now is his stellar run defense. He’s got ridiculous pass rush potential. He needs some seasoning though before he can be a reliable boost in that area. And that’s what New England’s defense craves most. This team needs to find a pass rusher somewhere to be a much-improved unit. I think the best-case scenario for Jones is that he takes to the finer points quick and becomes a better pass rusher in time for the postseason run. Overall, Jones is an awesome cornerstone going forward, I’m just a little skeptical of his initial impact. Excited to see what Belichick makes of him in the long-term though.

17.) Buffalo has an underrated collection of defensive talent. For starters, I love the defensive line and that’s the core of most great defenses. Mario was a monstrous free agent coup. He’s an elite edge-setter with elite edge-rushing upside. That’s the kind of signing that can transform a team’s fortunes. With Dareus and Williams on the inside, I think the Bills can wreak havoc with the front four and ease the burden on the rest of the defense, which features some promising defensive backs that Buffalo has been collecting. If a couple members of that backfield take a step forward, this unit is capable of vaulting up the charts.

Pair that with Chan’s offense that features a top ten, all-around running back and a spread variant that serves as somewhat of an equalizer, and I think Buffalo looks to be a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot.

18.) The Jets are a recipe for disaster. And most of it starts at quarterback. A tandem of Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow does nothing to inspire confidence in me and it’s not like their running game has proven to be a dependable crutch for them, so I think this team struggles to move the ball. Sanchez just isn’t a good quarterback and he hasn’t made real strides since an overrated rookie season and the talent level around him has undergone a sharp decline. Perhaps he becomes a bit better if Sparano lessens the load, but he’s never been an efficient passer to begin with. Not to mention, his weapons include an oft-disgruntled Santonio Holmes and a bunch of unproven prospects. If Sanchez sputters out of the gate, this situation could snowball quick and we could see Tebow sooner rather than later.

Which might not be the worst thing for the Jets. It would signal the end of the Sanchez era. Plus, if this team is going to win, its formula has to include a hard commitment to pounding the ball, controlling the clock, and at least maintaining its defensive prowess despite accruing another season of age. Almost adopt the Bronco blueprint. Win with some of the ugliest football imaginable. Tebow’s skill set fits into that kind of conceptual picture.

19.) Miami shouldn’t be afraid of starting Tannehill this season. It’s a well-supported illusion that “raw” quarterbacks need to spend all of their time as a rookie on the sideline. There are certain examples where I believe it might have aided a quarterback’s long-term prospectus, but I’m also a firm believer in the idea that certain people are destined for success or failure no matter what. I think there’s something to be said for being baptized on the field and developed in the crucible of competition. Certain quarterbacks are fragile and will break under pressure and others will rise above and be stronger for it. If a quarterback has a truly special makeup, he’ll succeed in the face of adversity, not survive in the absence of it.

That said, from what I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be afraid of starting Tannehill at some point. Sitting him at the start of the season is fine. But to stick to a predetermined date just for the sake of sticking to it is foolish. The Fins don’t figure to be contenders this season and Tannehill is their future. It makes sense for him to get some valuable experience under his belt. The biggest issue I saw with Tannehill at Texas A&M was post-snap validation of safeties and downfield coverage shells. That’s not something that can just be fixed with hours upon hours spent in the film room because it’s not all theoretical. He needs to adjust to the speed of the game and that takes practical experience.

Besides, the notion that he will crumble is overblown. Right now, Tannehill has a better pocket presence than Robert Griffin III. I’ve seen no one suggest RGIII sit.

20.) Pittsburgh is the favorite in the AFC North. Pittsburgh has kind of flown under the radar during the off-season, but I expect the Steelers to field an improved squad come September and establish themselves as favorites for the division. Roethlisberger is a true franchise quarterback. I’ve heard all of the rotator cuff stuff, but it’s a complete non-issue. He’s got a fantastic receiving corps that fit with him in Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery. Their committee of running backs is as unproven as it gets, but their offensive line has gotten better overall and stronger at the point attack. I expect Haley to deploy Rainey in a playmaker role, much like McCluster with the Chiefs, and that’s his best NFL fit by far. As for the defense, I have faith in LeBeau pushing the right buttons and keeping that unit as strong as ever. I don’t like the defensive backfield on paper, but I haven’t for quite some time, and it’s never hindered them from being a top defense because that front seven takes a lot of pressure off them.

Overall, this team is a little like the Giants to me. It features an elite quarterback guiding an offense with a questionable ground game and a fearsome front seven that can put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and both those elements are capable of taking over games from week-to-week.

21.) But Baltimore is still dangerous. I’m just not as confident in Flacco and their pass rush. That’s what it comes down to for me. For what it’s worth, I think Flacco is their second best skill player and a top-half quarterback in the NFL, but the pieces around him (outside of Rice) aren’t studs and I’m not sold he’s the type of signal-caller that can elevate an offense above and beyond their means for the whole season.

The defense worries me though, too. The losses of Pagano and Suggs are massive. That’s their mastermind and their best pass rusher. It’s hard to replace both of those without a decline in production. The Ravens defense had experienced a philosophical revitalization under Pagano and the possible candidates for replacement are dubious. Kindle has potential, but he’s a second-rounder that hasn’t stepped on the field and shown it. And I’m not Upshaw’s biggest fan. He’s a solid, technical pass rusher with strong hands and natural power, but he doesn’t have dynamic ability. He’s not going to anchor a pass rush.

That said, I love their backend. Baltimore has one of the absolute best secondaries in the NFL.

22.) The Bengals are pretenders. And it’s because I still don’t have faith in Dalton. Granted, he was much better as a rookie than I ever anticipated him being, but I’m still not sold enough to jump on the Bengals’ bandwagon. He maximizes his talent and does a lot of the little things right, I admit. I can’t shake the feeling that his upside is similar to Chad Pennington though, and that doesn’t excite me much. Someone that is good enough to take care of an offense and get his team to the postseason now and then, but can’t be relied on from season-to-season to be the franchise’s pace-setter.

Plus, Cincinnati’s 0-7 record against non-mediocre teams is sobering. I expect them to start fast and Mike Zimmer to continue to get run out of defensive retreads, but I think this team dips back below .500 again.

23.) The Browns are going to struggle in the win-loss ledger, but I expect them to be competitive and progress. For as much flak as the pick got, and much of it was well-deserved, the fact that Brandon Weeden is an upgrade over Colt seemed to get lost in the incessant Browns-bashing. Quarterback production was the biggest issue for this team last season and the offense was among the worst in the NFL for that reason. Each offensive possession was a complete chore. Nothing flowed from down-to-down or drive-to-drive or game-to-game.

Weeden has a superior skill set that can alleviate some of those inadequacies. Being equipped with a much stronger arm that can push the ball downfield being the biggest difference. Colt succeeded at running a short spread of sorts as a rookie, but he didn’t adapt once coordinators constricted Cleveland’s underneath concepts. Weeden has the arm to at least challenge defenses and contest the deep areas of the field.

Weeden is a solid scheme fit. In general, I’m just not a fan of sifting through castoffs to find a scheme fit at quarterback. I’d rather find an obvious talent and tailor the scheme to what he does well. That said, Cleveland has made a concerted effort to attract a lot of “quarterback people” to the organization. It’s their job to camouflage Weeden’s weaknesses and highlight his strengths now. And the Browns have the personnel groupings to run a quick-strike offense predicated on precise timing with three- or five-step drops and strong run action components. Which brings me to…

Trent Richardson. Richardson has an elite skill set that can change an offense. He’s got all critical running back attributes. Compact build to handle being saddled with an NFL workload. Runs low to the ground with very quick, active feet and gymnastic balance. Power and toughness are perfect fits for the division. Underrated burst and short-area quickness. Naturalness as a blocker and receiver, too. With Richardson, the Browns are getting a handful of seasons with a potential top five runner in the backfield. (And that’s the overlooked subtext of the Weeden pick. Cleveland doesn’t want to squander the prime of Richardson’s career. Because of his age, Weeden is perceived as a more polished product and thus the best win-now option. That’s the reason the Browns drafted him. On that front, I don’t reject their premise. I reject their evaluation.)

Combine an improved offense with a defense that’s showcased some scrappiness and stinginess, and I think the Browns are tough competitors in most games. However, given their strict strength of schedule and inexperience with each other, it wouldn’t surprise me if this team still finds itself back at the top of the draft. Sometimes progress isn’t reflected in the win column, but this team is adding more and more talent.

The loss of Phil Taylor certainly stings though. The mountains in the middle of that line make things much easier on the rest of the unit and the depth behind him is quite questionable.

24.) Houston is a true championship contender. If it weren’t for Matt Schaub going down, I think Houston has a compelling case for coming out of the AFC, but ifs and buts are meaningless in NFL circles. The point is the Texans aren’t a fluke.

The offense is rock-solid and reliable. Matt Schaub is an above average quarterback, Arian Foster is the best running back in the NFL, pass-catching depth was added, and I expect the zone-blocking scheme to minimize some of their off-season losses along the line. The biggest concern I have with this unit is Andre Johnson’s health and whether he’s reached the wrong side of his peak or he’s just battling a string of ill-timed injuries right now. Because an in-form, elite Andre Johnson modifies the landscape of Houston’s offense. It makes them that much more multiple and formidable.

This defensive unit is the obvious difference between these Houston teams and their predecessors though. These offenses have sleepwalked to sterling numbers before, but the defenses could never hold up their end of the bargain. Until Wade Phillips transformed this unit. J.J. Watt is a top five 3-4 defensive end and perfect for his role as a one-gap penetrator. Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed are both gifted athletes that Wade can sculpt into a supreme pass-rushing bookend. Jonathan Joseph erased a lot of their backend woes and cemented himself as an upper-echelon corner. With a full off-season of defensive integration, I would be quite surprised if this unit regressed.

25.) The Chiefs have a talented roster…except where it matters most. And that lowers their ceiling. Matt Cassel can be a capable caretaker, but I don’t think he’s good enough for legitimate title aspirations. He would need all-time great performances from certain aspects of the team to accomplish that. That said, I think the supporting talent is there to make the Chiefs postseason contenders.

The Chiefs have the best one-two punch at running back, a stable of talented receivers with the potential to mix up personnel groupings and isolate mismatches, a revamped offensive line, and established defensive talent at each level. On the whole, this is a well-rounded football team with age on their side. Outside of Cassel, arguments could be made that this is one of the most talented teams in the NFL.

And that’s what Pioli needs to work toward addressing above all else. A big-time quarterback is the last cornerstone this team is missing. It’s now his job to exhaust each avenue and option that might lead to a quarterback upgrade because this team has a championship window if it acquires one.

(On an unrelated note, I’m curious to see how Romeo Crennel handles his second campaign on the sidelines. With the Browns, Romeo mismanaged himself and his in-game responsibilities. He detached himself from defensive duties and those units were unimaginative and frustrating to watch. Now he’s got experience with things like clock management and he’s armed with the knowledge that delegating didn’t net him the defensive results he’s accustomed to. From what I’ve heard, he’s keeping defensive duties on his plate this season. That’s a good sign. Disappointments from previous experiences don’t have to define future opportunities.)

26.) San Diego’s talent decline has gone unnoticed. That’s the reason A.J. Smith’s fate should be tied to Norv Turner’s. This team’s gradual fall from consistent Super Bowl contendership is just as much a function of Smith’s failings as Turner’s. A handful of seasons ago, this team had difference-makers all over the field. But now, those difference-makers have either aged or retired or gone elsewhere and the Chargers have somehow retained their label as one of the most talented teams in the NFL.

27.) While the Eagles are ultra-talented, I don’t trust them to compete for the Lombardi. Because I don’t trust Michael Vick when it counts. He’s made noticeable strides as a passer in Philadelphia, but he’s still not reliable enough for me, and that’s without considering how dinged up he gets from standard punishment. Passers in the NFL succeed within structure. Improvisation is a great supplemental skill for a quarterback to have. It shouldn’t be one of the first attributes listed when talking about one though. And while Vick has improved as a signal-caller, he still hasn’t proven he can beat teams from the pocket on a consistent basis. He still has inaccurate stretches and rattles under pressure and doesn’t make the required adjustments. Constrict the pocket, preserve gap responsibilities, and force him to lean on that arm in muddied situations.

That said, this team is too talented to not win some games. There’s explosiveness all over the place on offense. There will be games where the offense hangs up points in bunches and looks downright unbeatable. And the defensive side of the ball should be improved and perform up to its potential. The linebacker corps looks much better on paper and it sounds like the backfield is going to be put in situations that suit their skill sets. If the corners are allowed to press, and the linebackers are much smarter in their assignments, that defensive line and its depth could just wreak havoc in the Wide-9 scheme. We’ll see how Juan Castillo calls it though. The defense has disgusting potential.

I just don’t consider them a top five or so team because I don’t believe Vick can do it in consecutive weeks once the calendar turns past December.

28.) I can’t figure out the Giants. It’s so hard to put a finger on this team’s pulse for me. Last season, I was convinced Fewell would continue mishandle his defensive assets and their astonishing lack of running game would come back to bite them. Oops. That didn’t happen.

If I had to guess, I’d venture this team recaptures their 2008 form and comes out with a chip on their shoulder. I still think there’s a belief out there that this team isn’t all that talented and lucked into their Super Bowl title in five seasons. This team performs best when there’s something out there for them to prove to the world. The hungrier the Giants are, the more dangerous the Giants are.

Eli is a top five quarterback. Until he won last year’s Super Bowl, he was absolutely one of the game’s most underrated players. I have zero doubts about him elevating those players and getting them to fire on all cylinders. Nicks and Cruz is a symbiotic relationship. Cruz gets such favorable inside coverage because most people don’t realize how much of an all-around beast Hakeem Nicks is. And I expect Cruz to draw some of that attention back this season and free Nicks up to make things happen on the outside.

As for the defense, it has near limitless potential if used to the fullest of their abilities. Their defensive line depth is borderline absurd. The Giants can rotate seven or eight legit linemen and keep bodies fresh into the fourth quarter of games and the late stages of the season. Shaun Rogers has been a mediocre option for the past couple seasons, but if the Giants can salvage what little he has left, that line could be getting a wide load with a serious interior push that can collapse the pocket and make things easier on those edge rushers. New York has great matchup linebackers, and if the reports of Mark Herzlich looking like a junior at Boston College again are true, then the second level is more or less solidified. The corners and safeties are talented and their sub-package matches up with a wide range of offenses, but Fewell has to utilize them right. These corners need to be at the line of scrimmage and putting pressure on their man. The soft, eight-man zones need to stop. Considering their defensive success once Fewell switched things up, I have a hard time believing he would revert back to what wasn’t working, but I guess we’ll see.

29.) If Dallas realizes their window is closing, eliminating mental mistakes should be their biggest focus. The talent is there to take down the division and make some noise in the postseason. Mental mistakes just kill this team from season-to-season though. You can usually count on some teams finding ways to beat themselves and the Cowboys always seem to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Jason Garrett needs to emphasize discipline and recalibrate this roster to become more detail-oriented. Little adjustments can often make the biggest differences. You can’t consistently beat yourself when the overall margin for error is already so narrow in the NFL.

Romo is a quality, top ten quarterback that can win some games by himself. Murray flashed a lot of two-way ability and Jones isn’t shabby as a bullpen back. Dez, Austin, and Witten are a top-of-the-line receiving trio. Plus, the Cowboys defense has the ability to apply pressure, especially if their overhauled secondary extends extra flexibility. Rob Ryan has the talent to play around defensively and get fairly creative with his schemes.

This team just needs to eliminate their own unforced errors first and foremost.

30.) The Packers offense sets the floor and the defense sets the ceiling. This offense is dominant enough to drag the Packers to the postseason as long as Rodgers is their quarterback. Green Bay’s offensive chemistry is too impressive to deny over the entirety of a season. Last year, Rodgers made more indefensible throws than any other quarterback. He was operating with surgical precision and that offense was regarded as an unstoppable juggernaut.

But when rust accumulated on the offense, the defense couldn’t pick up the slack and the Packers were one-and-done despite going 15-1. It just reinforces the point that it’s extremely hard to win a championship when one unit is clearly inferior to their counterparts. Because every year there comes a pivotal point where the other must respond and carry the load. Green Bay’s offense won shootouts when they needed to. When the Packers needed a tighter defensive game, the defense didn’t deliver.

To me, much of this season rides on Dom Capers. I think Capers is such an innovative defensive mind. He’s one of the pioneers of some of the league’s staple, aggressive concepts from odd-fronts. He gets a lot out of his units and isn’t overwhelmed from an X’s and O’s perspective. He puts his people in the right position and makes smart adjustments in response to the offense. If someone is going to find a creative solution to fix this unit’s problem with the talent at his disposal, Capers is a sound choice.

His biggest problem is that his personnel failed him last season. His coverage units regressed big-time and his unorthodox base sacrificed too much size for too little range. And when offensive lines geared their protections toward shutting Matthews down and slid blockers to his side, the pass rush broke down and became inconsistent, too. It was a perfect storm for the Packers where one problem trickled down and polluted the other. Green Bay’s most likely remedies are first-rounder Nick Perry developing into a viable pass rusher opposite of Clay Matthews and a couple of their youngsters in the secondary discovering their confidence again and playing better.

They don’t even need to be dominant. This offense doesn’t need the ’85 Bears, ’91 Eagles, ’00 Ravens, or even the ’11 Niners defenses backing them. The Packers just need a defense that’s good enough to slow some teams down and give their offense a chance to win some lower-scoring games. That’s all. And Green Bay doesn’t even need them to be feisty from the get-go. That defense can be a work in progress for much of the season. They just need to field a steadier defense come playoff time.

31.) Chicago shouldn’t be considered a sleeper. That’s an above average football team and a serious contender to clinch a postseason berth. Cutler is an underrated quarterback that’s brought the Bears to the NFC Championship Game and now he’s surrounded with the best talent he’s had since arriving in Chicago. Brandon Marshall is a head case, but he’s a talented head case whose upside and past experience as Cutler’s favorite target justifies the risk. With Cutler at the helm and Forte and Marshall at his side, this offense has the potential to be real multiple in its approach to attacking defenses. Not to mention, it can’t be stressed how important losing Martz for to this team. Even if Tice is terrible, it’s still addition through subtraction. And that defense is the definition of dependable. I don’t love their scheme, but Chicago has made it work for a long time and I don’t foresee a sudden drop-off now.

Overall, I think the Bears are one of the easiest team to sum up in a few parts. This team goes as Cutler, Forte, Marshall, Peppers, Urlacher, and Briggs go. There are some other complements need to do their jobs, sure, but those are the core pieces that drive them.

32.) I don’t think the Lions will make a return trip to the postseason, but I don’t expect a precipitous drop either. It’s something that happens each season. A perennial cellar-dweller breaks out and puts together a good run. Then, in the following season, said team is knocked down from their perch due to a harder schedule and a higher respect level around the league.

I don’t think Detroit replicates their team success from last season. But I don’t think this team plummets and returns to being the old Lions either because Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are two of the best building blocks in the entire NFL and that combination is lethal enough to keep them afloat on their own. I think this team finds itself in that 7-9 to 9-7 range at season’s end. Winning a good amount of games, but dropping some to contending teams and being eliminated from the postseason picture.

The main hesitance I have with the Lions is the same as a lot of people. I don’t see how this team covers at an NFL level. That backend is as threadbare as I’ve seen. With as efficient and prevalent as the pass is in the modern NFL, that’s a huge handicap to have to overcome. Even if the defensive line shows up, I’m not sure it will be enough to cover it. This backfield needs to be the target of an overall talent infusion. Once Detroit does that, I think the Lions will be right back in the hunt.

33.) Despite all of the distractions, New Orleans is primed for a big-time run. I’m all-in on the Saints this season. I understand it’s an unconventional arrangement and situation, but I can’t ignore this team’s talent level. I think this squad is more talented than their Super Bowl-winning counterparts, and the potential exists for this team to be galvanized since their perception is that an external force is out to get them.

On offense, I trust Drew Brees and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. I don’t think this offense goes on another record-setting tear, but Brees and Carmichael have worked with each other since 2009. By now, they’ve got a rapport of their own and they’ve worked alongside Payton enough to share his philosophy and vision. With two of the biggest mismatches in offensive football in Graham and Sproles and a reliable trio of receivers to manipulate personnel groupings, I trust Brees and Carmichael to muster enough offense to be one of the better units in the league again.

And I believe in Steve Spagnuolo. Much like Wade Phillips, I believe Spags is a coordinator that can change an entire defense’s fortunes. Spags manufactures tough schemes that maximize his talent and brings a controlled aggression that is spectacular to see. He tiptoes the fine line between aggression and carelessness and remains unpredictable while doing it. He can attack an offense with a dozen different blitzes out of the same formation or with the same blitz out of a dozen different formations. He’s one of the few defensive coordinators that won’t back down from being the first to act, too. If Spags is allowed to sink his teeth into this unit and make it his own, then I expect the Saints defense to be tough and generate some extra possessions for that offense.

34.) Cam Newton has made Carolina a hot preseason pick, but his assumed development is the biggest misnomer in the NFL. This is something that I’ve noticed during the off-season. It is just assumed that Cam Newton is going to continue to develop. Development in the NFL doesn’t follow a clear linear progression though. We’ve seen people plateau within their first few seasons before. We’ve seen people burn out after exploding onto the scene before. We’ve seen people succeed, struggle, and then find success again. Being a rookie sensation doesn’t equate to a setback-proof, career-long development arc.

We’ve even seen a similar situation in the past couple seasons. When Michael Vick took over for Kevin Kolb as Philadelphia’s starter and went nuts on the NFL for four or so weeks, fans and pundits alike heralded it as the dawn of a brand new era. Vick was even a top five quarterback on a lot of lists. Guess what? Vick isn’t even a top ten quarterback. But, at the time, it was just assumed that Vick could continue his torrid pace and wouldn’t fall off or plateau.

That said, I was a much, much bigger fan of Cam than I ever was Vick. Cam’s arm talent is much better, he’s built like a tank, and he’s got superlative intangibles on top of all his other gifts. But I don’t think it’s asinine to suggest that Cam isn’t bulletproof. He’s susceptible to the pitfalls of immediate success and he could be a candidate for plateauing. His physical tools and current skill set are enough to suggest he should be a good quarterback, but the actual upside of an NFL quarterback is largely determined by how well they compartmentalize and process multi-layered information in a very short window of time. That was one of Cam’s biggest concerns as a prospect. One season, no matter how impressive, doesn’t just slam that book shut.

Granted, I’m not even suggesting that Cam has plateaued. He strikes me as a tireless worker and, for the record, I do think he’s going to get better. I’m just not sold on him as a future elite quarterback and pointing out that I’ve never seen such a maligned draft prospect given such a benefit of the doubt regarding their development going into the sophomore season.

35.) A pair of new coordinators will determine the fate of the Falcons. Under Mularkey and VanGorder, Atlanta was the most vanilla team in the NFL. They had pretty good talent, but they generally lacked dynamic playmakers and schematic creativity. While I still believe they need the former, the latter can certainly get better.

On offense, Julio Jones and Roddy White can be one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL, but I’m not sold yet that Matt Ryan is the type of quarterback to truly carry an offense through the air. I want to see how he performs now that he’s unshackled from some of Mularkey’s dry play-calling. Because he’s definitely a smart guy that you can win with under center. I’m hoping Koetter starts to phase out Michael Turner in favor of Jacquizz Rodgers. Quizz is a better, more versatile option at this point.

On defense, Atlanta needs to scale back the amount of zone coverage their back seven sits in. I understand that it suits Brent Grimes and now Asante Samuel well, but top-notch quarterbacks will recognize patterns and pick up on pre-snap indicators and proceed to torch it. It has a place, and can even be used as the predominant coverage, but the looks and shells need to be varied. I expect Nolan will be more aggressive where he can. The biggest issue with the defense is uninspiring front seven talent and the line in particular Outside of Weatherspoon, there’s not someone that scares me. The Falcons need a premium pass rusher to replace Abraham and remodel this defense.

36.) The revamped Buccaneers will struggle to see dividends this season. Greg Schiano was an interesting hire that caught me off-guard, but I love the thought process behind it, even if it was an unpopular hire. He seems to be a respected football mind and a disciplinarian that demands more out of the people around him than Raheem Morris did. And that was a distinct impetus for their sudden implosion. Schiano should instill discipline to that locker room and hold that team accountable instead of letting the power structure fail and result in the wrong voices being heard.

But I don’t see that transformation and their free agent splashes translating to on-field success in the first season of the program. In a weaker division, I think this would be an excellent dark horse. The NFC South is brutal though and the other teams in their division have rosters that are just as strong talent-wise or even stronger.

37.) San Francisco will take a step back, but should still be considered the frontrunners for the NFC West crown. I know there’s a faction out there that doesn’t trust the Niners at all, but this team has resurfaced from their dark days and they’re here to stay for the foreseeable future. Their defense, which I thought was the best in the NFL last season, is returning all eleven starters. Their special teams, which are among the league’s most dominant, wins the battle of field position and relieves pressure for both units. And their coaching staff, which outcoached and outmaneuvered a lot of established staffs, is back. Those are three very good indicators of sustainability and they imply San Francisco isn’t going anywhere.

Now, some other realities. The Niners rode a ridiculous turnover differential to their surprise 13-3 record last season, forcing mistakes and then capitalizing on short fields on offense. Even though they’re returning their entire defense and they put an emphasis on playing smart offensive football, history suggests that posting back-to-back, overwhelming marks in turnover differential is highly unlikely. It’s a natural ebb and flow.

The other factor is Alex Smith. He was the most insulated, protected quarterback out of all the postseason signal-callers. The Niners just don’t ask him to do as much as his counterparts and that leads to a certain degree of distrust for Smith and, through osmosis, a certain distrust for the offense in general. And quarterbacks that fluctuate are somewhat of a gamble because so much of offensive production and potential is predicated on quarterback performance. I’ve seen a brilliant Alex Smith and a mediocre Alex Smith.

In general, I’m in the camp that believes Smith is a capable caretaker and his maturation last season impressed me, but it’s a fair point to question. I just think Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage and an improved group of weapons prevent a regression and keep this team in contention for a Super Bowl.

38.) The Cardinals and Seahawks are near carbon clones. Both are stuck in an underrated division and feature strong defenses and promising offenses, but both are encumbered with unsolved quarterback situations. More so the Cardinals. I’ve never been sold on Kolb. But if Kolb can show he’s worth what Arizona gave up for him, the Cardinals are legit. Wells and Williams is a balanced backfield and Fitzgerald and Floyd is a dynamic duo in the making. Plus, Arizona’s defense has a good mix of young playmakers and veteran presence at every level.

I trust the Seahawks to reach their upside a little more though. I don’t ever see Matt Flynn being spectacular, but he’s got a powerful ground game to lean on as a crutch and a solid committee of receivers. On defense, Seattle boasts a young secondary that has emerged as one of the very best in the NFL. If a consistent pass rush materializes, this unit could cement itself. That’s why I’m so curious to see how they use Bruce Irvin. In my opinion, Irvin was too incomplete and unpolished to take in the top twenty. But, reach or not, he has a load of potential as a pass rusher based on his athleticism. Carroll identified a need on his team and tried to address it. We’ll see how it pans out now. Lately, everything Pete has touched has turned to gold.

39.) It’s a make-or-break season for Sam Bradford and the Rams. Even though St. Louis doesn’t figure to be a playoff contender this year, the Rams will be a compelling storyline. With potentially four high picks in the next two drafts, St. Louis will be in a position to add a few impact players and build a championship-caliber core. What remains to be seen is whether Sam Bradford is the quarterback of the future or not. After a disappointing sophomore season in a passer-friendly system and a coaching change, Bradford’s future is a little cloudy. Jeff Fisher isn’t married to Bradford. If Bradford struggles again this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if Fisher shops him and drafts his own quarterback to groom.

Regardless, the Rams are at a crossroads and the upcoming season will untangle a lot of things.

40.) The NFC is a much deeper, more competitive conference than the AFC. The NFC is stronger than the AFC division-by-division. In the AFC, I see eight or so legitimate postseason contenders. In the NFC, I can buy playoff arguments for eleven or twelve teams. Even projected bottom-feeders like Tampa and Washington can be tough, week-to-week teams that can hang with some of the entrenched contenders.

41.) AFC Wild Card: (3) Steelers over (6) Chiefs and (4) Broncos over (5) Bills.

42.) NFC Wild Card: (6) Giants over (3) Eagles and (5) Bears over (4) Niners.

43.) AFC Divisional Round: (1) Patriots over (4) Broncos and (2) Texans over (3) Steelers.

44.) NFC Divisional Round: (6) Giants over (1) Packers and (2) Saints over (5) Bears.

45.) AFC Championship Game: (1) Patriots over (2) Texans.

46.) NFC Championship Game: (2) Saints over (6) Giants.

47.) Super Bowl XLVII: (1) Patriots 24, (2) Saints 20.

MVP: Tom Brady.

[armageddon]

39.) It’s a make-or-break season for Sam Bradford and the Rams. Even though St. Louis doesn’t figure to be a playoff contender this year, the Rams will be a compelling storyline. With potentially four high picks in the next two drafts, St. Louis will be in a position to add a few impact players and build a championship-caliber core. What remains to be seen is whether Sam Bradford is the quarterback of the future or not. After a disappointing sophomore season in a passer-friendly system and a coaching change, Bradford’s future is a little cloudy. Jeff Fisher isn’t married to Bradford. If Bradford struggles again this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if Fisher shops him and drafts his own quarterback to groom



Passer friendly system ? You mean a decimated o-line and terrible receivers who couldn't catch ? And a coordinator who kept him in a 7 step drop with no time to throw and nobody to throw to ? Man, if that's passer friendly, I would hate to see non- passer friendly.

[NY+Giants=NYG]

In that scenerio, I think the Saints would kill NE. And if we did play them, our chances of winning would be the same as getting hit by lightning twice on the same day, at the same time, at the same location.


But for our team, it's simple it comes down to injuries at one specific position, and Fewell. Our offense will always be good, it's the defensive side of the ball that needs to get their head out of their butt, and it starts with the DC.

It always has been the DC.

Tim Lewis, Spags, Bill Sheridan, and now Perry Fewell.

Spags was the best for us, but got promoted. The other bums got fired, and Fewell needs to actually do well and stick. That means getting his side of the ball to play well, and starts with him and his play calling and just basic running of the defense.

If that side of the ball plays well, then we will be good to go.

Oh, and great job by the way! I always like when members go the extra mile and create comprehensive posts. So + rep for you!

[Rosebud]

Still reading through, but having skipped ahead to the giants section, you're drastically under-estimating Perry Fewell's ability to **** **** up. I'm absolutely convinced we'll not just see a return of his absurdly complex option-coverages, but also his marvelous 3 man rush.

[AntoinCD]

Love the write up on the Pats.

In regards to the Lloyd situation, I would also throw in Gaffney as an extra. The Patriots biggest issue was winning one on one battles outside the numbers, therefore forcing Brady to constantly look towards the TEs and Welker. Clearly this didn't do much to slow the offense down, however it really took away the big play possibilities. If people watch the Pats offense last year Brady made a lot of short to intermediate throws and moved the chains. Most of the big plays were;

1. Gronk being an animal and running over people, ie - Chiefs game, Redskins game etc

2. Hernandez making a sick move in the open field and getting extra yardage

3. Brady taking advantage of busted coverages, ie - Welker's 99 yard TD against Miami, Welker's 70 yard reception against the Jets and Welker's long TD against the Eagles on a double move.

Chad Ocho-Johnson and Deion Branch (the latter particularly as the year wore on) really struggled to keep defenses honest and play deep. Now Lloyd, who as you mentioned is already acclimated in the system, should be a major upgrade over Ocho while Gaffney should definitely be an upgrade over what Branch offers now. While Lloyd isn't close to Moss '07 level, this offense is more complete than it was five years ago.

As for Hightower, I don't think the Pats will stay strict to any sort of front. Hightower is probably inked in as the day one starter at SAM alongside Spikes and Mayo if they run a 4-3 base. While Hightower isn't a natural pass rusher and shouldn't be long term at OLB in a 3-4, he is a very good blitzer from all around the front. I see him having a very similar role to what Adalius Thomas had as a Patriot, because Thomas wasn't a terrific pass rusher, but a good blitzer.

One thing Belichick loves is versatility. Hightower can play in multiple spots depending on what the offense is showing. I like the pick personally and he is also a better guy to have inside if Spikes goes down than Tracy White

[NY+Giants=NYG]

Originally Posted by Rosebud

Still reading through, but having skipped ahead to the giants section, you're drastically under-estimating Perry Fewell's ability to **** **** up. I'm absolutely convinced we'll not just see a return of his absurdly complex option-coverages, but also his marvelous 3 man rush.

We run the "leave the opposing WR wide the F open" play better than any team in the league. I especially love when the Cb and safety look at each other like, that's your guy. No, that's your guy.

So Fewell fix your defense, and keep it fixed!

[vidae]

Props for how much work you put into this.

[SaintsMan]

Great write up, although I don't think any team would be able to beat the Saints IF they made it to the Super Bowl in the Super Dome this year.

Also, I wanted to add this about Pete Carmichael.. He was a offensive assistant and WR coach for the Chargers while Brees was there and joined the Saints in 2006, same year as Brees. Carmichael was the QB Coach before being promoted to OC in 2008. He called the plays for more than half the year last season, including the playoffs.

[OSUGiants17]

Incredible write-up. But like NYG said, if we have to play the Saints in NO, it is a loss 10 times out of 10. That is the only team that scares me in the NFL, unless we play them at home/outside of a dome. If they played at home in the Super Bowl, forget about it, they take the cake. Brees is unstoppable at home.

[Bixby (Thumper)]

How is a guy who has 29.5 sacks in 3 years in the NFL not a great edge rusher? And he's been top 10 in the NFL in two of his first three seasons in run stop rate at OLB according to FootballOutsiders so I'm not sure about that "average run defender" stuff. Plus, he's probably the best 3-4 OLB in coverage in the entire league. You're crazy if you think Clay Matthews is overrated.

And people keep pinning the Eagles' hopes on Vick's consistency but what people really should be talking about is his health. If he's healthy, the Eagles win games. The Eagles are 15-6 the past two seasons in games that Vick starts and finishes and they're 3-8 when he doesn't. Consistency isn't the problem, his health is. If Vick stays healthy, the Eagles can compete for it all but if Vick goes down early they might be in contention for a #1 pick because Mike Kafka just isn't going to cut it.

[NY+Giants=NYG]

Originally Posted by OSUGiants17

Incredible write-up. But like NYG said, if we have to play the Saints in NO, it is a loss 10 times out of 10. That is the only team that scares me in the NFL, unless we play them at home/outside of a dome. If they played at home in the Super Bowl, forget about it, they take the cake. Brees is unstoppable at home.

Yeah that's the only time, I would say we'd lose always to. If we win then good for us, hot damn, but other than that, that's the ONLY NFL team I fear. Damn team is outta their minds, and match up VERY well against us in that dome. The dome is half of what scares me. Doom dome.

[SuperMcGee]

Buffalo's defensive line is definitely very impressive. I think the secondary can be really good. The safeties are already one of the best tandems in the league and I'm actually very comfortable with Gilmore right off the bat. It's his fellow rookie that worries me the most, in regards to team success. Cordy Glenn on the blindside fills me with trepidation. Fitzpatrick is enough of an up-and-down player, we can't have him getting pressured constantly.

[bigbluedefense]

Great thread. I just don't see it with the Saints. I don't care how good Brees is, hes not the OC. I think we're undermining Payton and his game plans with the assumption that Brees can just run thr offense, do all the responsibilities of qb AND the gameplan by himself. Plus the loss of structure is just catastrophic for a team. Brees is just 1 guy. Theres 52 other guys on thr team that needs that structure. I dont doubt the talent, but I just can't see them overcoming their obstacles.

[Thecollegedropout]

Originally Posted by Cudders

18.) The Jets are a recipe for disaster. And most of it starts at quarterback. A tandem of Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow does nothing to inspire confidence in me and it’s not like their running game has proven to be a dependable crutch for them, so I think this team struggles to move the ball. Sanchez just isn’t a good quarterback and he hasn’t made real strides since an overrated rookie season and the talent level around him has undergone a sharp decline. Perhaps he becomes a bit better if Sparano lessens the load, but he’s never been an efficient passer to begin with. Not to mention, his weapons include an oft-disgruntled Santonio Holmes and a bunch of unproven prospects. If Sanchez sputters out of the gate, this situation could snowball quick and we could see Tebow sooner rather than later.

Which might not be the worst thing for the Jets. It would signal the end of the Sanchez era. Plus, if this team is going to win, its formula has to include a hard commitment to pounding the ball, controlling the clock, and at least maintaining its defensive prowess despite accruing another season of age. Almost adopt the Bronco blueprint. Win with some of the ugliest football imaginable. Tebow’s skill set fits into that kind of conceptual picture.

I will give you credit first and foremost for hitting each and every team and for putting so much thought and effort into this post. You deserve not only a green rep by me but by plenty of others for really doing your best for all 32 teams.

While I am not qualified or really able to counter or agree with your other observations, I can however hit the Jets one and really say you missed the boat with the Jets analysis.

1) I agree the running game is such an enigma early in August but.....take into account Sparano is so heavy run as opposed to the awful Schottenheimer who played around with the small dumpoffs and didn't mix enough plays and didn't capitalize on a defense's weakness. I think if anything, a runner like Greene will have their stats inflated in Sparano's system like we saw with Bush or Brown in Miami.

2) Mark Sanchez rookie year overrated? I think the term "overrated" gets tossed around way too loosely. From what I remember, everyone saw Sanchez as the guy who held a Super Bowl esque defense from going all the way and a guy who plenty of people bashed and knocked around. Yes he did garner alot of praise the first 5 or so weeks when the team was undefeated but that quickly went away as the team began to lose some more. Overrated means to have been thought highly of and talked about greatly by most....and that is far from what happened to Sanchez. He got chatted more as a game manager than being overrated.

3) Sanchez will have a tighter leash than most feel......I think at worst he will have 10 games to prove himself unless he gets hurt and Tebow takes the ball and runs or Sanchez is that bad(Which I dont think will happen)

In the end, I guess you dislike Sanchez while I still think he can be a good QB in this league. I can't blame you for thinking like this given the past 3 seasons of play but I do think getting out of Schotty's clutches WILL be better for him moving forward.....just because Sparano will be much more imaginative and will take risks rather than dumb down the whole offense and be predictable.

[diabsoule]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

Great thread. I just don't see it with the Saints. I don't care how good Brees is, hes not the OC. I think we're undermining Payton and his game plans with the assumption that Brees can just run thr offense, do all the responsibilities of qb AND the gameplan by himself. Plus the loss of structure is just catastrophic for a team. Brees is just 1 guy. Theres 52 other guys on thr team that needs that structure. I dont doubt the talent, but I just can't see them overcoming their obstacles.

Last year whenever Payton had to step down, Pete Carmichael did fine as the OC and he's still on the team. The team seems to have rallied around Vitt and the other position coaches and I think they will do what's needed to at least make it to the postseason.

[ChiFan24]

Great thread, except for the one bad thing you said about my favorite team.

Love,

Everyone

[WCH]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

Great thread. I just don't see it with the Saints. I don't care how good Brees is, hes not the OC. I think we're undermining Payton and his game plans with the assumption that Brees can just run thr offense, do all the responsibilities of qb AND the gameplan by himself. Plus the loss of structure is just catastrophic for a team. Brees is just 1 guy. Theres 52 other guys on thr team that needs that structure. I dont doubt the talent, but I just can't see them overcoming their obstacles.

I just want to say that I agree with BBD 100%.

[Bucs147]

Originally Posted by diabsoule

Last year whenever Payton had to step down, Pete Carmichael did fine as the OC and he's still on the team. The team seems to have rallied around Vitt and the other position coaches and I think they will do what's needed to at least make it to the postseason.

Wasn't Payton still there between each game he missed to do the gameplan ? This is a totally different situation has Payton isn't allowed to talk to a Saints member for a whole year. Are Drew Brees/Pete Carmichael able to create gameplans as good as Paytons' ? We have no idea.

[princefielder28]

Originally Posted by Bixby

How is a guy who has 29.5 sacks in 3 years in the NFL not a great edge rusher? And he's been top 10 in the NFL in two of his first three seasons in run stop rate at OLB according to FootballOutsiders so I'm not sure about that "average run defender" stuff. Plus, he's probably the best 3-4 OLB in coverage in the entire league. You're crazy if you think Clay Matthews is overrated.

Clay Matthews is very good (obviously there's no denying that) but after last season his play, along with BJ Raji's, left fans with a bitter taste in their mouth. The Packers' defense needs that guy who is constantly creating havoc in the opposing backfield (aka 2010 Matthews) otherwise the defense will have many similar struggles to last year given the question marks that surround the defensive secondary.

[RufusMcDaniel]

Originally Posted by ChiFan24

Great thread, except for the one bad thing you said about my favorite team.

Love,

Everyone

He didn't mention my team...

[BloodBrother]

Originally Posted by princefielder28

Clay Matthews is very good (obviously there's no denying that) but after last season his play, along with BJ Raji's, left fans with a bitter taste in their mouth. The Packers' defense needs that guy who is constantly creating havoc in the opposing backfield (aka 2010 Matthews) otherwise the defense will have many similar struggles to last year given the question marks that surround the defensive secondary.

Clay created plenty of pressure last season. The issue was they had nobody opposite him and the Dline provided zilch in the pass rush, so D's just zoned in on Clay

Raji was the one who really had a bad season. He didn't really do much of anything.

[SuperMcGee]

Originally Posted by RufusMcDaniel

He didn't mention my team...

Nobody cares about the Argos.

[RufusMcDaniel]

Originally Posted by SuperMcgee

Nobody cares about the Argos.

Well, duh...they are just keeping the stadium warm until the Bills come to Canada.

And dammit, I'm a Tiger-Cat fan.

[diabsoule]

Originally Posted by Bucs147

Wasn't Payton still there between each game he missed to do the gameplan ? This is a totally different situation has Payton isn't allowed to talk to a Saints member for a whole year. Are Drew Brees/Pete Carmichael able to create gameplans as good as Paytons' ? We have no idea.

While Payton was on crutches, yes, Carmichael drew up the offensive gameplan and executed it. He had full control of the offense. I'm not saying these two situations are exactly the same, because obviously they are not, but there are some similarities. It will take some adjustments from the team to cope with Payton's absence and the game plan drawn up by Vitt, Carmichael, Kromer, Spags, etc will differ from Payton's. That being said, it's not like this team doesn't possess the talent to stay competitive or be as dangerous as they have been with Payton on the sidelines.

It is some lofty expectations to assume they could make it to the Super Bowl but this team has the ultimate us-against-the-world mentality right now which does account for something. Plus adding more talent on defense than they Saints have had since the Dome Patrol in addition to adding a defensive coordinator who isn't as reckless as Gregg Williams and was regarded as one of the best in the game before his ascension to being a head coach should only help out.

Aaron Kromer is expected to take over for Vitt while he serves his suspension and what's expected is that Spags will have full control of the defense while Kromer (OL coach, former RB coach) and Carmichael formulate the offensive game plan. I'm still expected the same high-powered offense the Saints are known for having. Let's not forget that at times Payton did call some idiotic plays. Carmichael isn't known for doing that, at least not during his time as full time play-caller.

[bigbluedefense]

It's not just Xs and Os though. Being a HC is so much more than that. The Saints are gonna be without their HC all year, and will transition btw 2 temporary HCs during the season.

You need a singular voice in the lockerroom, a singular leader to run the team. You can't have a committee. It doesn't work.

The division didn't get any easier either. I honestly don't see how they'll be any better than 9-7 this year. It's not because I doubt the talent, I don't even doubt the leadership. But the distractions and the losses are just too great for any team to overcome.

When the offense and defense quarrel this year, and it will happen, it happens on every team, who's the singular authoritative voice to stop it? Nobody. Vitt? Nobody cares what Vitt says, he's just a temporary HC, as is anyone else on that coaching staff. No one cares how close Vitt is to Payton either. He's not Payton. Period.

If they do pull off a playoff season, I'll tip my hat to them. But I'm not expecting it. It's a long, stressful, exhausting season. It's not just about talent. Talent alone won't get it done.