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Old 08-27-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
eaglesalltheway
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Alright seriously, this needs to ******* stop.

Yes this storm is going to be disastrous for some people, but with the strength of this storm and the organization (or lack thereof), that number with be dramatically less than anything the likes of Katrina. The track is unfortunate for New Orleans, but current forecast models are continuing with a westward trend, it wouldn't surprise me if this thing makes landfall in Extreme Eastern Texas at this point. Though it will be in the right front quadrant of the storm at the onset, it won't have to deal with the southward winds from Katrina that pushed the Mississippi into the city. There will be flooding, there will be wind, occasionally high, but the storm surge and washout into the city will be significantly less, and if the track continues westward, minimal or non-existent. This storm will probably be making landfall as a hurricane, but a poorly organized one.

Don't get me wrong, if you are in the path it is still probably a good idea to be safe and have evacuated with plenty of time. But with this storm, I can see people willing to stay back with their property. Hopefully people will be smart and stay safe no matter where they are, and injuries and casualties will be minimal (lets not get freaked out like with Katrina, there will probably only be a small number of fatalities, either due to freak accidents to people not being smart (i.e. trees falling on them, driving into flooded roadways, etc), but with how this storm has looked since its start, it has never been a threat similar to Katrina, and should never have been compared in the first place. So people, stop pretending to be meteorologists, yes, the gulf coast is warm and we are in the prime of hurricane season, but the air that Isaac has been in has not been conductive to massive strengthening like anyone has said, both because of the moisture content and the upper level shear. It isn't just the ocean temperature that controls strength of these things, there is a lot going on that people need to realize before making way too big of a deal about it.

/rant.

Hopefully everyone down there stays safe and acts smart. If they do that, we could be looking at less than 10 fatalities (maybe even none) from this thing, which is unfortunate, but nothing in comparison to Katrina.
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Old 08-27-2012, 12:37 PM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Katrina is a haunted hurricane. It is natural for a lot of people to expect any hurricane power drops drastically when the landfall is made. Katrina turned into a powerful cat 3 in 2 days and into cat 5 in one day prior to the landfall.

Because of that, there is not enough time for people to evacuate completely. (Other than extremists' wish/guts and other common reasons).

Katrina was downgraded to Cat 3 at landfall but its storm surge remained alike Cat 5.

Katrina could be another pussycat hurricane had it not improved up to Cat 5 at last minute. We have to be prepared like it is another Katrina so we could evaluate people better.

Issac may or may not another Katrina but You never know.....Good Luck, people.

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Old 08-27-2012, 12:57 PM    (permalink
eaglesalltheway
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YotoJets007 View Post
Katrina is a haunted hurricane. It is natural for a lot of people to expect any hurricane power drops drastically when the landfall is made. Katrina turned into a powerful cat 3 in 2 days and into cat 5 in one day prior to the landfall.

Because of that, there is not enough time for people to evacuate completely. (Other than extremists' wish/guts and other common reasons).

Katrina was downgraded to Cat 3 at landfall but its storm surge remained alike Cat 5.

Katrina could be another pussycat hurricane had it not improved up to Cat 5 at last minute. We have to be prepared like it is another Katrina so we could evaluate people better.

Issac may or may not another Katrina but if its category ranks as 3 200 miles away, you get out this immediately. Don't get cute with assuming it will fall into cat 1 or TS. Simple. Good Luck, people.
This is only partially true. The storm surge would've been worse if it remained at Cat 5, roughly by 6-8 feet, depending on offshore topography. With that last minute drop in strength it allowed the seas to drop some, but it doesn't follow the strength in terms of a correlation exactly, there is a little bit of a delay. That is because it isn't just the wind strength that controls the surge, its the wind strength over distance, in addition to the pressure of the storm itself. Katrina was big as well, but also had strong winds over a long distance, and extremely low barometric pressure. Even at landfall, Katrina had a pressure around 925 millibars, Isaac is still around 975-980, and that is a huge difference that is another reason why people are overreacting, to me at least.

I also don't necessarily agree with the part after the bolded part. These storms are similar in size, but Katrina was a more complete, developed system straight from the start. You had clear, tight, circular bands around the entirety of Katrina for hundreds of miles, where as with Isaac, there has rarely been an a single band of more intense storms around the whole center at all. That is a sign of an unorganized storm. Isaac is becoming a little more organized as the day has come along but still nothing compared to Katrina. Go back and look at satellite and composite images of that storm to see what I'm talking about.

Really the only problem that I could see arising from this storm is if it slows down enough that it will be over the warm gulf waters long enough for it to get into an atmosphere with more favorable development. Models have shown that landfall time has been pushed back almost 12 hours since this time yesterday, and that could be enough that there might be a quick increase in strength right before landfall, and the chances of it reaching the more favorable atmosphere increase tho further west it goes, since it'll be out on the water longer.
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Old 08-27-2012, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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The only forecast I really care about.

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Old 08-28-2012, 11:18 PM    (permalink
diabsoule
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All we're getting here in Baton Rouge is strong winds at the moment.
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Old 08-29-2012, 07:51 PM    (permalink
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LaPlace, La

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Old 09-02-2012, 10:25 PM    (permalink
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Went about 4.5 days without power here in Baton Rouge. LaPlace (just north of NOLA) was hammered by severe flooding. Saw it for myself when I had to bring my grandmother some gasoline for her generator in a neighboring town.
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