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Old 09-05-2012, 10:01 AM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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I guess I'll give mine as well

NFC North:
1. Green Bay Packers- 12-4
2. Chicago Bears- 11-5
3. Detroit Lions- 9-7
4. Minnesota Vikings- 4-12

Random Predictions: Detroit's lack of dicipline, specifically personal fouls costs them a game, which ultimately costs them a playoff spot. Minnesota will be a much improved team, but they won't be able to overcome going 0-6 in their Division.

NFC West:
1. San Francisco- 8-8
2. St. Louis Rams- 7-9
3. Arizona Cardinals- 4-12
4. Seattle Seahawks- 4-12

Random Predictions: Pete Carroll is fired after Seattle starts the season 2-8. The overall passing game of the entire division will be an utter embarrassment, combining for less than 12,000 yards, fewer than 70 TDs, and more INTs than TDs.

NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons- 12-4
2. Carolina- 7-9
3. New Orleans- 7-9
4. Tampa Bay- 5-11

Random Predictions: Carolina starts 4-1, making the Panthers a sexy Super Bowl pick and Cam Newton an MVP candidate. But a brutal post bye stretch of Dallas, Chicago, Washington, Denver, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Kansas City, & Atlanta leaves them 6-7, crushing all those dreams.

NFL East:
1. Dallas Cowboys- 11-5
2. Philadelphia Eagles- 9-7
3. New Yorks Giants- 8-8
4. Washington Redskins- 6-10

Random Predictions: The Cowboys start 4-5, leading people to start their usual Romo-Garrett-Cowboy jokes. They all shut up when The Cowboys win 7 straight to end the season and Tony Romo finishes 2nd in MVP voting.

AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens-12-4
2. Pittsburgh- 9-7
3. Cincinnati Bengals- 5-11
4. Cleveland Browns- 3-13

Random Predicitons- Andy Dalton has a huge sophpmore slump, mirroring Colt McCoy's second season. Brandon Weeden is horrid in his rookie season. Realizing they can't wait until he is 33 to hopefully be competent, the Browns give up on the "veteran" after just one season.

AFC East:
1. New England Patriots- 14-2
2. Buffalo Bills- 10-6
3. Miami Dolphins- 6-10
4. New York Jets- 5-11

Random Predictions: New York Jet fans will be clamoring for Tebow-Time as the sesaon falls apart. But after looking all-time terrible in his spot playing time, Rex Ryan can't bring himself to start him. The Patriots come close to an undefeatd season, losing only two games, both by five points or fewer.

AFC South:
1. Houston Texans- 11-5
2. Tennessee Titans- 9-7
3. Jacksonville Jaguars- 7-9
4. Indianapolis Colts- 6-10

Random Predicitons: Blaine Gabbert is the most improved player in the league. He even gets some Comeback player of the year votes. The Colts look better, but all the talk of them winning 9 games is foolish. Remember, this is a team with a rookie QB, a change in defensive scheme, and not a big upgrade in talent over a team that was embarrassingly bad last year.

AFC West:
1. Denver Broncos- 11-5
2. Oakland Raiders- 9-7
3. Kansas City Chiefs- 8-8
4. San Diego Chargers- 7-9

Random Predicitons: This is the conference of comeback players. Both Manning and Palmer look like the QBs they were five years ago. Meanwhile, the Chargers again disappoint, Norv Turner is fired, and the window for Philip Rivers closes. Also, Videa throws a tantrum because again, the Chiefs are bad enough to not make the playoffs but not bad enough to be in a position to get a legitimate QB.

Wildcard Round:
Bears over 49ers
Cowboys over Eagles
Texans over Bills
Broncos over Titans

Divisional Round:
Bears over Falcons
Cowboys over Packers
Ravens over Broncos
Patriots over Titans

Championship Round:
Cowboys over Bears
Ravens over Patriots

Super Bowl:
Ravens over Cowboys
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Old 09-05-2012, 10:37 AM    (permalink
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Kudos on the effort, but it almost seems like you went full hipster with your picks, just picking the opposite of what's most reasonable to expect with teams like the Jets, Browns, Colts, Chiefs, Rams, etc.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-05-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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Patriots: 10-6
Four newcomers on the offensive line will spell trouble for Brady's bunch. Brandon Lloyd will struggle and the defense won't be much better than last year. Still, Aaron Hernandez will break out and actually score more TDs than Gronk as they win the division yet again. Bill Belichick's regular season win total since they went 5-11 in 2000: 11, 9, 14, 14, 10, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, 13. In other words, youíd be foolish to predict anything less than 11 wins, especially considering the two divisions the AFC East faces this year - the AFC South and NFC West.

The question with New England in recent years has been how theyíll play in the playoffs. Last season they demolished a very weak Denver squad and were luckily helped by Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff to get passed Baltimore. Despite making the Super Bowl a year ago, this yearís team needs to play much better, especially against the better teams in the league if they want to return to the Super Bowl. Itís tough to go against Bill Belichick, but I just canít call for them to do much damage in the playoffs this season. The defense is a mess and itís hard to envision a playoff opponent choking like the Ravens did last year.
Although this might sound homerish, I have a very hard time envisioning the Patriots defense being anywhere near as bad as last years team. The defense is going to be very good against the run with Love and Wilfork at DT with Spikes, Hightower, and Mayo backing them up. The unit was so young last year, and had an atrocious safety situation for most of the year. They've rectified that a bit by adding Gregory who is far more functional than Ihedigbo. The question comes down to CB and the pass rush because outside those 2 areas the defense is actually a very good unit. Can the Patriots find a functional rotation at DE and CB that is productive? If one of those 2 things happens I can easily envision a top-half of the NFL statistical defense considering the schedule, with the potential for even better things if McCourty, Dowling, or Jones breaks out this year.

I agree the offense is going to struggle more than people think, but still if you look at the offenses we're playing this year it's not going to take too much to outscore them. We have the Jets and the Dolphins in our division and we're playing Arizona, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Indy, and a host of other mediocre offenses. The only 4 dangerous ones we're facing all year are Houston, San Diego, Baltimore, and Denver none of which are amazing.
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Old 09-05-2012, 12:27 PM    (permalink
AntoinCD
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post

Patriots: 10-6
Four newcomers on the offensive line will spell trouble for Brady's bunch. Brandon Lloyd will struggle and the defense won't be much better than last year. Still, Aaron Hernandez will break out and actually score more TDs than Gronk as they win the division yet again. Bill Belichick's regular season win total since they went 5-11 in 2000: 11, 9, 14, 14, 10, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, 13. In other words, youíd be foolish to predict anything less than 11 wins, especially considering the two divisions the AFC East faces this year - the AFC South and NFC West.

The question with New England in recent years has been how theyíll play in the playoffs. Last season they demolished a very weak Denver squad and were luckily helped by Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff to get passed Baltimore. Despite making the Super Bowl a year ago, this yearís team needs to play much better, especially against the better teams in the league if they want to return to the Super Bowl. Itís tough to go against Bill Belichick, but I just canít call for them to do much damage in the playoffs this season. The defense is a mess and itís hard to envision a playoff opponent choking like the Ravens did last year.
As cmarq said, I don't want to sound homerish either but I will clarify a few things.

Firstly, the Pats have one person on the offensive line who didn't start last year and that is at OC, unless Brian Waters comes back. Nate Solder takes over from Matt Light but he did play extensively as a rookie. The offensive line will be fine because the Pats scheme around it and Brady gets rid of the football.

I don't see how you can be so confident in saying Lloyd will struggle. I'm not going to say he will be great because we have seen recently with Ocho etc however Lloyd has experience in the system already and knows the playbook. I'm not going to give him a great year without seeing him produce, however to write him off already seems a litle premature.

The defense will be night and day from last year. This is something I am confident in. The Patriots had, talentwise, the worst secondary of all time last year. It didn't matter what happened up front because the DBs simply couldn't cover. There was miscommunication, busted plays, plays where guys got flat out beaten etc. If there is one thing the Pats have done is bring in more guys who can actually play.

The other thing I have to question is, why will the Pats defense not be better than last year but the Packers' defense (which was worse than the Patriots') be better as you have stated?
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Old 09-05-2012, 12:29 PM    (permalink
bucfan12
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Not to be a homer but the bucs will win 7 games. The defense is vastly improved But I do agree about freeman. It's make or break fr him but from what I've seen so far he still stares down Wrs and does a poor job reading defenses presnap and going through progressions. It's a talented squad that was not coached well at well last year.

Also Cleveland 8-8? What are you smoking? Same with rams 9-7 and niners 7-9 ? Indy winning the division? Houston will 6-0 at worst 5-1 on division play.
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Old 09-05-2012, 12:55 PM    (permalink
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I don't want to sound like a homer but you are SOOOO wrong about
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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You have the Packers losing 3 games? Omg. Double u tee eff bro.

I like your prediction of DJ Williams making plays, I was expecting more Randall Cobb breakout talk.
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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This is why nobody likes you.
Oh. I'm really sorry to hear that.
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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I don't want to sound like a homer but you are SOOOO wrong about
homer.....
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-05-2012, 03:12 PM    (permalink
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This is wierd. You have my sleeper: St Louis. You have my emerging top team: Atlanta. You have my over rated and overhyped team: SF 49ers.
You get the Cowboys. You get the Steelers' issues. There is a lot to like.

But then you give Houston, the most talented team in the NFL, 8 losses. I dont thing Houston and KC will have 8 losses combined, much less 19.

J
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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The people accusing him of trying too hard to be different need to shut the **** up. Things never, ever, ever, ever turn out remotely the way people expect. God forbid anyone tries to identify some sleeper teams.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:46 PM    (permalink
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Kudos on the effort, but it almost seems like you went full hipster with your picks, just picking the opposite of what's most reasonable to expect with teams like the Jets, Browns, Colts, Chiefs, Rams, etc.
Full hipster would have been picking against BAL, NE, GB, PHI, and DEN.

There's turnaround every year.

This year I expect extreme parity in the AFC and a more polarized NFC. I think the playoff race will be wild down the stretch as it usually is. And in the end, about half of the teams that made the playoffs last year WON'T this year. Let's see:

SD
BAL - y
NE - y
IND
DEN - y
NYJ

GB - y
ATL - y
PHI -
STL -
DET - y
DAL -

Well would you look at that...
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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Love to see people that keep on underestimating the 49ers, Alex Smith in general. Makes it that much better when the 49ers do keep winning. People last year seem to think that the turnovers led to the 49ers winning games when, if anything, the opposite is true. The 49ers leading in games led to teams turning the ball over
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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If you're going to predict a drift towards the statistical mean in regards to turnover ratio, perhaps you should do the same in regards to red-zone efficiency, where Alex Smith had the highest QB rating in 2010.

Just an idea.
I knew this would be brought up. Not terrible.

However, turnover ratio is a fickle stat that is based on luck first, performance second.

Red zone efficiency is not as luck-based. A bad offense will continue to be a bad offense if changes aren't made. If you want to sell me that Moss and Manningham will be better or Smith will play better or the playcalling will change, then that's fine. I'll likely disagree because I don't believe in Moss, think Manningham was a bad signing for their system, and don't have any faith in Alex Smith.

Yes a good D can cause turnovers but fumble recoveries and tipped passes are 50% luck based on where the ball bounces.

History shows that the Niners turnover ratio is not sustainable.

On the flip side, history shows that their poor red zone execution absolutely is (hell, look at the Browns).

We'll see. This is why it's fun!
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:29 PM    (permalink
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The people accusing him of trying too hard to be different need to shut the **** up. Things never, ever, ever, ever turn out remotely the way people expect. God forbid anyone tries to identify some sleeper teams.
I think I wasn't supposed to laugh at this.
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Old 09-09-2012, 05:46 AM    (permalink
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AFC:

East
1. Patriots 14-2
2. Bills 9-7
3. Jets 8-8
4. Dolphins 5-11

North
1. Steelers 12-4
2. Ravens 9-7
3. Bengals 8-8
4. Browns 1-15

South
1. Texans 10-6
2. Titans 8-8
3. Colts 6-10
4. Jaguars 6-10

West

1. Broncos 9-7
2. Chiefs 9-7
3. Raiders 7-9
4. Chargers 6-10

Texans over Bills, Chiefs over Broncos
Patriots over Chiefs, Steelers over Texans
Steelers over Patriots

Super Bowl: Steelers over Packers


I kind of hate how my predictions turned out....way to chalky. IDK what I could do to fix them though so.....there they are.
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