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Old 09-20-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
descendency
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Default Why Do the Young QBs Look So Good?

So, I was looking at the QB drafts that should be producing young QBs in that are starting to enter their prime and found an interesting situation. There was a major drought in quality QBs from 2006-2008. A grand total of 3 QBs came out of that group. An average class tends to be 2-3 QBs (usually 3).

So, in the time when many of them should be stepping into roles as top 15 QBs, only 3 of the current top 15 QBs in the NFL are in that age range that would have them drafted between 2006 and 2008.

So, why do the young QBs look so good? Because there was a huge hole in the draft at QB for 3 years. (I would have thrown in 2005, but it had 3 starters and Alex Smith is finally starting to play like a good QB)

QBs that started week 1

2006:
Jay Cutler

2007:
--

2008:
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco

It could get worse in terms of emphasis on younger QBs (in the media mostly) because of the 3 classes. Basically, in a few years guys like Eli, Big Ben, and Phillip Rivers will be moving towards retirement while guys like Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, and others will be entering the time where they would be in their prime... but they won't even be in the league. In effect, the QB classes from 2006 to 2008 were basically abortions, literally.

(in case you are wondering who else was in those classes: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...e=any&show=all )
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Old 09-20-2012, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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I cannot see how you can include the 2008 group as abortions, producing 2 solid QB's in a draft class is excellent IMO and far from being close to your label.

Even 2006 cannot blabeleded an abortion, any draft that produces a solid QB is no worse than a good class.

You description of an average class as producing 2 to 3 QB's is questionable, a class that produces those #'s is excellent IMO if at least one of them is a franchise starter.
I really question your facts concerning classes that produce 3 solid QB's a year as the average #. I'd like to see figures on at least a 15 year period to prove your point.
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Old 09-20-2012, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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Honestly I think the scouting departments and decision making has been a lot better. A lot of teams haven't really IMO reached on many qbs who just have potential in the first round.

I mean, you're not going to hit p every pick but the success rate has been better lately prob learning from the Jamarcus Russell mistake.
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Old 09-20-2012, 02:59 PM    (permalink
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Default

College football has changed dramatically over the last 15 years. In the past a college QB had a huge transition to make for pro ball as his team likely relied on a running game to win and the QB was really starting from scatch to learn a passing attack. Today college QB's throw the ball hundreds of times a season and while they still need to learn how to read defenses, throwing a football is very easy for them. pro team also have a much better read on college QB's, on how they handle pressure and rally their teams to win because the college game today rests on their shoulders. So it should come as no surprise that more college QB's find success at the next level as they are simply better prepared when they reach the pros.
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Old 09-20-2012, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bucfan12 View Post
Honestly I think the scouting departments and decision making has been a lot better. A lot of teams haven't really IMO reached on many qbs who just have potential in the first round.

I mean, you're not going to hit p every pick but the success rate has been better lately prob learning from the Jamarcus Russell mistake.
after russell i think the riskiest pick in the non salary cap days was probably tebow, which was WAY lower salary at 24th-ish

its gonna swing back around now with a rookie cap.....locker, ponder, tannehill, ...all potential and risky picks in that draft slot.

weeden too, but weedend was more low potential/high risk....lolbrowns
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Old 09-20-2012, 06:03 PM    (permalink
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The rules against defense being played in the NFL now also helps these young QB's experience success. I saw quarterbacks struggle and bust out back the 80's and 90's that were better than some of the QB's who are able to come into the league and have success nowdays.

However, the issue for these young QB's is still going to be sustaining that success and playing at a high level week after week, and year after year.

Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, etc. are still pretty hit or miss from week to week.
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Old 09-20-2012, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JHL6719 View Post
The rules against defense being played in the NFL now also helps these young QB's experience success. I saw quarterbacks struggle and bust out back the 80's and 90's that were better than some of the QB's who are able to come into the league and have success nowdays.

However, the issue for these young QB's is still going to be sustaining that success and playing at a high level week after week, and year after year.

Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, etc. are still pretty hit or miss from week to week.
This...it's the number one and most obvious reason these young QBs are having more success earlier in their careers. It also seems to be the one reason that none of the "experts" want to address. They seem to want place all the credit on these young QBs rather than address the fact that the position is easier to play due to the rule changes that have made a more offensive oriented ball game. Spread offenses have been around for awhile and they have been attempted in the NFL in the past but they are more successful now due to the rule changes.
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Old 09-20-2012, 08:15 PM    (permalink
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I cannot see how you can include the 2008 group as abortions, producing 2 solid QB's in a draft class is excellent IMO and far from being close to your label.

Even 2006 cannot blabeleded an abortion, any draft that produces a solid QB is no worse than a good class.

You description of an average class as producing 2 to 3 QB's is questionable, a class that produces those #'s is excellent IMO if at least one of them is a franchise starter.
I really question your facts concerning classes that produce 3 solid QB's a year as the average #. I'd like to see figures on at least a 15 year period to prove your point.
Of the classes still with players in the NFL, most of them put 2-3 QBs into starting roles for quite a few seasons. The previous 15 years isn't relevant in that respect. (only about the previous 10) Granted, some of those were Joey Harrington (who started way more seasons than I remembered...)

I'm not calling it a trend. I'm merely noting that there were a lot of busts in that 3 year period.
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Old 09-20-2012, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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Old 09-21-2012, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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More guys playing/starting mean more opportunities for success. Yeah, there were a few down years but that happens.

As of last night 1st and 2nd year QBs are 7-14 with two of the wins being against other 1st or 2nd year guys. Bottom line you can play them but most likely aren't going to win a lot of games.
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Old 09-21-2012, 06:04 PM    (permalink
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Also most top HS prep QBs have been attending elite 7 on 7 camps since their freshman year of HS.

These guys are better prepared than ever before to play at every level. More passing reps and more coaching by QB 'specialists' outside of their college programs is a big part of the reason IMO young QBs seem better than they were 5 to 10 years ago.
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Old 09-30-2012, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Why are young QBs succeeding? That's because they come from Texas! haha
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