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Old 09-21-2012, 11:11 AM    (permalink
Jvig43
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I don't think Brady is overrated. I think he is the second best QB of this generation, by far, and an all-time great.





Please go back an read the multiple times that I stated I am not comparing Smith to Eli currently. But I would argue that Smith's comeback against the Saints last year was every bit as impressive as Eli's against the Bucs



I am not saying that Alex is definitely going to be an elite QB, I haven't come close to saying that. I just thought it was interesting how close their stats after around five seasons worth of stats are probably going to be.
Yes I was also impressed with his comeback against the saints, but it isnt the same thing as what Eli did the other weekend. The 49ers got off to a hot start and basically had to hold on for the win, not to discredit Smith but while his game ending drive was impressive I don't view it on the same level as starting out the way Eli did and managing to storm back from and win it. Its a case of holding on vs coming back and thats something that the elite QBs can consistently do that we havent seen from Smith. Not saying he can't, or wont, and maybe he hasn't been put in the chances to do so but as of now and even further (even just for fun we pretend Smiths stats end right around where you said would make him top 10) I think people would gladly take a top ten QB list of guys who have done it far more consistently than Smith has. Which is why stats aren't going to be the determinant of if Smith cracks the top 10.

And you can call it whatever you want, say you find it interesting or what not but you are certainly implying that he has a case to be considered top 10 based on stats regardless if you admit to it or not, which is a poor argument. Until he becomes the vocal point of that team in the way we see from Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning's, Big Ben, Rivers does the stats argument is going to be moot. That team wins and loses as the defense goes and the offense manages to sustain drives, not on the arm of Smith. They have probably the best team in football after two weeks and it isn't because of Smith, although he hasnt played poorly. The other teams that are touted highly are in large part because of their QBs, than surronding cast where Smith its vice versa.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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This isn't really a Smith vs. Eli debate, though. It is a Smith vs. early Eli debate. Three years ago Eli was nowhere near the QB he is today
yet, 3 years ago, Eli still led his team to a Super Bowl.

Also, early Eli NEVER GOT BENCHED FOR SHAUN HILL.

you're using some of Eli's earliest years man. Like, they were drafted 1 year apart and Eli has played SO MANY MORE GAMES.

And you also never factored in things such as, you know, the New York media. The New York fans. Having Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey being chode waffles to you. There are so many more things that factor when talking terms of success. But look at the stats, throw out freaking projections that are made up and use 'em. You act as if Eli's been playing for so many more years when in reality, it's been 1. They were drafted ONE YEAR APART. So yeah, I hope Alex Smith with his 80 starts in his 7th year in the league is better than Eli's 80 starts in his first 4 years
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:17 AM    (permalink
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Yes I was also impressed with his comeback against the saints, but it isnt the same thing as what Eli did the other weekend. The 49ers got off to a hot start and basically had to hold on for the win, not to discredit Smith but while his game ending drive was impressive I don't view it on the same level as starting out the way Eli did and managing to storm back from and win it. Its a case of holding on vs coming back and thats something that the elite QBs can consistently do that we havent seen from Smith. Not saying he can't, or wont, and maybe he hasn't been put in the chances to do so but as of now and even further (even just for fun we pretend Smiths stats end right around where you said would make him top 10) I think people would gladly take a top ten QB list of guys who have done it far more consistently than Smith has. Which is why stats aren't going to be the determinant of if Smith cracks the top 10.
So you think it is more impressive when a QB digs himself into a hole and has to dig his way out then if a QB puts his team up big, his defense lets the other team comeback but the QB leads a comeback after his defense lost the lead? I don't really understand that. Smith had six fourth quarter comebacks last year, four of them coming against playoff teams.

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And you can call it whatever you want, say you find it interesting or what not but you are certainly implying that he has a case to be considered top 10 based on stats regardless if you admit to it or not, which is a poor argument. Until he becomes the vocal point of that team in the way we see from Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning's, Big Ben, Rivers does the stats argument is going to be moot. That team wins and loses as the defense goes and the offense manages to sustain drives, not on the arm of Smith. They have probably the best team in football after two weeks and it isn't because of Smith, although he hasnt played poorly. The other teams that are touted highly are in large part because of their QBs, than surronding cast where Smith its vice versa.
If you think that Smith hasn't been the single best player on the 49ers this year then you haven't watched their games, it is that simple. Will that continue for the rest of the year? I don't know.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:20 AM    (permalink
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Not to mention Eli is in the toughest offense in the NFL and it was never simplified for him as a younger player.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
This isn't really a Smith vs. Eli debate, though. It is a Smith vs. early Eli debate. Three years ago Eli was nowhere near the QB he is today
And this is why stats are stupid because, yes, Eli was. His stats weren't as good, but Eli was.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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Not to mention Eli is in the toughest offense in the NFL and it was never simplified for him as a younger player.
the toughest offense? thats a little short sited


this debate is terrible btw lol
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

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Old 09-21-2012, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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the toughest offense? thats a little short sited


this debate is terrible btw lol
Umm no it's really not. Nobody has a complex read/route system that we have.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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the toughest offense? thats a little short sited


this debate is terrible btw lol
Eh. Eli plays in the most vertical and complex offense in the league while being handicapped by Gilbride's situational playcalling. I'd say that's a good case for Eli running the toughest offense.

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Umm no it's really not. Nobody has a complex read/route system that we have.
The Pats do, but they're no where near as vertical with them.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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yet, 3 years ago, Eli still led his team to a Super Bowl.

Also, early Eli NEVER GOT BENCHED FOR SHAUN HILL.

you're using some of Eli's earliest years man. Like, they were drafted 1 year apart and Eli has played SO MANY MORE GAMES.

And you also never factored in things such as, you know, the New York media. The New York fans. Having Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey being chode waffles to you. There are so many more things that factor when talking terms of success. But look at the stats, throw out freaking projections that are made up and use 'em. You act as if Eli's been playing for so many more years when in reality, it's been 1. They were drafted ONE YEAR APART. So yeah, I hope Alex Smith with his 80 starts in his 7th year in the league is better than Eli's 80 starts in his first 4 years
Alex Smith never got benched for Hill, either. He just didn't win an open competition against him. And I think the starts are a fair way to compare them. If you want to say Alex Smith was a bust because he was injured then that is fair. But to say he sucks when he was injured isn't. Besides, Alex will be the same age after this season that Eli was after 87 starts.

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so you agree that vinny testaverde is a top 10 all-time qb? i mean, that's what his numbers say. but that's NOT what anyone who ever actually watched the sport of football would say. it's a flawed argument. again, if the nfl boils down to numbers, there's no reason to ever play a game. but it doesn't. you simply cannot ever hope to account for every conceivable variable in an nfl game via childishly simplistic statistical analysis. again, why do you think your raw numbers are any more useful than the stuff football outsiders actually puts some reasonable thought into? and that's STILL not account for the fact the most people still think DVOA is hogwash. maybe we should just use career passer rating? i mean, that's a perfect conglomeration of useless garbage, right?
Testaverde's stats don't put him anywhere near top 10 all time, though. He is 106th in QB rating, 104th in YPA and 99th in completion percentage. He has a losing record as a starter. Yeah, he is top 10 in yards and touchdowns but he is also top 10 in pass attempts and interceptions.

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except you're saying EXACTLY that by using inflated numbers for one player to account for the remainder of this season. further, you're now adding their defense and running game into the mix. why didn't you include those numbers when you compared qbs? what about third down conversions? were they equal there? you can say they were, but i don't believe you and i don't think you have any rational basis for suggesting that they are that doesn't essentially amount to "i just know". which isn't good enough for anything.
I didn't even make those predictions for Alex Smith the rest of the year, those were done by someone else. I also did include their running game and defensive ranks in the beginning.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:26 AM    (permalink
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fun stat time: not counting Eli's rookie season, in which he started the last 9 games replacing Warner: The LEAST amount of completions he's ever had, is still more than the MOST Smith has ever had (last year).

Smith's also never thrown for over 20 TD's. Something Eli's done EVERY YEAR (again, barring those first 9 games)

Eli's also never been benched in favor of Shaun Hill in his early years. Something else to consider. Edit: lost a competition with. so sorry. still stands
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:26 AM    (permalink
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So you think it is more impressive when a QB digs himself into a hole and has to dig his way out then if a QB puts his team up big, his defense lets the other team comeback but the QB leads a comeback after his defense lost the lead? I don't really understand that. Smith had six fourth quarter comebacks last year, four of them coming against playoff teams.



If you think that Smith hasn't been the single best player on the 49ers this year then you haven't watched their games, it is that simple. Will that continue for the rest of the year? I don't know.
I do think its more impressive that a QB starts out poorly and than manages to keep his head on straight and make a dramatic come back than going up big and holding on. You went up big because your defense forced a handful of turnovers in the first half to put your offense in great position. The only reason the Saints could make a comeback was two fold, A. The defense which allowed the saint to score and B. The 49ers not managing to sustain drives and continue to score. If the 9ers had kept scoring there never would have been a chance for the Saints to march back in the game. But they didn't, Smith didnt sustain drives in the second half which was in part a reason the Saints managed to get back into it despite Brees having what, 4 picks in that game? Yes I agree that Smiths drive to cap it off was impressive at the end, had they kept scoring, hell even managing to just pick up a few first downs on their drives, it wouldnt have had to come down to that. Not to mention lets compare Smiths 6 4th quarter come backs against any of the considered top 10 QBs because stats would be a "good" indication for that sort of thing right?

EDIT: Here for fun lets do it. Stats for most 4th QB come backs by current QBs

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...ive-qbs/16571/

(Assuming thats accurate, wow Smith is better than Rodgers for 4th QB comebacks but not as good as David Garrard. Stats are fun arent they/)


I have watched both 49er games and I would not say Smith has been the best part of that team, at all. The 49ers defense is far and away what determined who won that packers game. As for the Lions game their defense couldn't stop anything on third down, and I think Gore and Davis looked far better than Smith.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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And this is why stats are stupid because, yes, Eli was. His stats weren't as good, but Eli was.
Eli during the span I posted averaged 21 touchdowns to 15 interceptions with a 6.7 Y/A, 57% completion and a 79.2 QB rating. Since then he has 60 touchdowns in two season, 7.9 Y/A, completes 62% of his passes and has a QB rating 10 points higher. Eli has significantly improved in the last few years
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith never got benched for Hill, either. He just didn't win an open competition against him..
Because that is just so much better hahahahahahaha
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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I really hate these 9ers fans that make me dislike Alex Smith, cause I remember arguing that he should be the #1 pick over Rodgers way back in the day and have always had a soft spot for him.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Not winning a open competition with Shaun Hill

Oh god.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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Eli during the span I posted averaged 21 touchdowns to 15 interceptions with a 6.7 Y/A, 57% completion and a 79.2 QB rating. Since then he has 60 touchdowns in two season, 7.9 Y/A, completes 62% of his passes and has a QB rating 10 points higher. Eli has significantly improved in the last few years
Person 1: Stats don't tell the whole story because Eli was excellent even before his numbers took off

Person 2: Nuh uh, just look at these stats that prove that he wasn't

Person 1 murders person 2 before person 2 has a chance to taint our species' gene pool.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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ok, the term "same age" was just used. Seriously? Age is 100% different than years played in the NFL. Eli's 3 years older, but one year ahead of Smith in terms of pro career. Smith's numbers are coming from him being in the pros longer at his 82nd start than Eli's, age has nothing to do with it. In Smith's 82 start, he'll have had like 3 years more NFL experience than Eli did at his 82nd start
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:32 AM    (permalink
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ok, the term "same age" was just used. Seriously? Age is 100% different than years played in the NFL. Eli's 3 years older, but one year ahead of Smith in terms of pro career. Smith's numbers are coming from him being in the pros longer at his 82nd start than Eli's, age has nothing to do with it. In Smith's 82 start, he'll have had like 3 years more NFL experience than Eli did at his 82nd start
Weren't you paying attention during the Weeden debates? Age >>>>>>> NFL experience.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Weren't you paying attention during the Weeden debates? Age >>>>>>> NFL experience.
crap, you just poked a hole in my argument because I was on the side that said drafting a 28 year old rookie in the first round was dumb. His body will fall apart before he hits his mental stride.

If he has one.

Oh wait, it doesn't matter because he's terrible anyway
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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fun stat time: not counting Eli's rookie season, in which he started the last 9 games replacing Warner: The LEAST amount of completions he's ever had, is still more than the MOST Smith has ever had (last year).

Smith's also never thrown for over 20 TD's. Something Eli's done EVERY YEAR (again, barring those first 9 games)

Eli's also never been benched in favor of Shaun Hill in his early years. Something else to consider. Edit: lost a competition with. so sorry. still stands
Eli has also had significantly more pass attempts than Smith. You would expect him to have more completions and touchdowns. And I could easily have seen young Eli losing an open competition to Shaun Hill. Eli never was even in an open competition, though, because he had somewhat competent coaches who knew how to mold a young QB.

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Because that is just so much better hahahahahahaha
It is significantly better. A young QB with less than two seasons of playing time coming off a separated throwing shoulder losing a preseason battle against a solid NFL starter. Who could possibly see that coming?
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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You lost me at solid nfl starter
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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Person 1: Stats don't tell the whole story because Eli was excellent even before his numbers took off

Person 2: Nuh uh, just look at these stats that prove that he wasn't

Person 1 murders person 2 before person 2 has a chance to taint our species' gene pool.
If you really think Eli was as good early in his career as he is today then I am more worried about you tainting the gene pool.

Quote:
ok, the term "same age" was just used. Seriously? Age is 100% different than years played in the NFL. Eli's 3 years older, but one year ahead of Smith in terms of pro career. Smith's numbers are coming from him being in the pros longer at his 82nd start than Eli's, age has nothing to do with it. In Smith's 82 start, he'll have had like 3 years more NFL experience than Eli did at his 82nd start
Sorry if I don't consider someone being injured and not playing to be NFL experience.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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You lost me at solid nfl starter
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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Just leave it alone guys. There's no point.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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Eli beat out Kurt ******* Warner. Kurt. Warner. you know, the guy who would later lead the Cardinals to a Super Bowl appearance. You know, that guy. BUT HE'S NO SHAUN HILL I'LL TELL YOU THAT!


and Shaun Hill was just called a solid starter. I really don't know what to say.


And yes, Eli did have more pass attempts...because he's more than a bus driver and has been his whole career, even as a young'in.
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