Week 4 Discussion Thread - Page 6

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 02:20 PM

Finley drops are nothing new actually. He's always been a drive killer for them.

Giantsfan1080 · 09-26-2012, 02:25 PM

I feel like Jordy hasn't been as open as much either. Everyting I see him someone is usually playing good coverage.

AntoinCD · 09-26-2012, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080

I feel like Jordy hasn't been as open as much either. Everyting I see him someone is usually playing good coverage.

Well in the Bears game I thought Tim Jennings did a great job when he was matched up against him. He was ultra-physical at the line and never allowed him to get behind in unless a safety was covering over the top. Even in saying that Nelson had a pretty bad drop over the middle in that game on a 3rd down play if my memory serves me right

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 02:28 PM

I feel that once the regular refs are back, guys like Rodgers are going to explode again because the DBs won't be allowed to be nearly as physical. I think that plays a bigger part than most realize.

killxswitch · 09-26-2012, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

I feel that once the regular refs are back, guys like Rodgers are going to explode again because the DBs won't be allowed to be nearly as physical. I think that plays a bigger part than most realize.

I was about to post something similar. Even though the numbers might show that PI is still being called regularly, it's being called at weird (or wrong) times and not at all in a way that dissuades DBs from mugging the receivers.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch

I was about to post something similar. Even though the numbers might show that PI is still being called regularly, it's being called at weird times and not at all in a way that dissuades DBs from mugging the receivers.

"Illegal Contact" is probably more at play than DPI, and I definitely feel that it is being called less by the replacements than the real refs had been.

Stupid BS Polian rule anyway...

Babylon · 09-26-2012, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080

I feel like Jordy hasn't been as open as much either. Everyting I see him someone is usually playing good coverage.

I was at the Green Bay game and the coverage on him was really good but there were times when it was man to man. If i'm the QB i'm throwing a couple to him deep and chances are, even moreso with these refs, something is going to be called.

jrdrylie · 09-26-2012, 02:34 PM

To verify BB's point, last year, the Packers played zero top-10 defenses. The average defensive ranking was 21.3. In terms of pass defense, they played 2 top-ten pass defenses, but the average pass defense was actually worse at 21.6. Against the two top-ten defenses, his complettion percentage dropped by 15.6% and his passer rating dropped by 30.2 points.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

To verify BB's point, last year, the Packers played zero top-10 defenses. The average defensive ranking was 21.3. In terms of pass defense, they played 2 top-ten pass defenses, but the average pass defense was actually worse at 21.6. Against the two top-ten defenses, his complettion percentage dropped by 15.6% and his passer rating dropped by 30.2 points.

Not to knock him, because his season was still statistically historic, but he got dealt an amazing hand of bad defenses to beat up. I mean, you play who is on the field in front of you, but with a slightly more balanced schedule, I don't think his stats would have been quite as mind blowing.

To summarize my last couple of posts together, I think he's suffering from 3 things this year: 1.) Overall better defenses so far than he faced last year. 2.) Replacement refs who are a little more easy going on Illegal Contact and 3.) the regression fallacy I posted above. Last year was so over the top for him that he's reverting back to his average now.

Babylon · 09-26-2012, 03:00 PM

^

Probably not huge but i think they miss Donald Driver.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babylon

^

Probably not huge but i think they miss Donald Driver.

Can't tell if you need to check their roster, or if you are making a joke about Driver's declining physical attributes....

bigbluedefense · 09-26-2012, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch

Herm Edwards also said defenses know how to deal with the Packers offense now, to run lots of cover 2 shell and knock the receivers off their routes. No idea if that is really true but it sounded interesting.

It is true. That's exactly how you stop a timing based precision offense like the Packers.

Passing as much as the Packers do had to eventually catch up to them. There's only so many pass combinations you can cook up before they all become old.

It's not like they have a Calvin Johnson on the team that's just a physical matchup nightmare either. They just had overwhelming numbers at WR who were good WRs. But that caught up to them bc defenses have caught up with their depth at CB.

Babylon · 09-26-2012, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Can't tell if you need to check their roster, or if you are making a joke about Driver's declining physical attributes....

Haven't filled the void. In that vein.

SuperPacker · 09-26-2012, 03:48 PM

Our receivers aren't getting open and our offensive line can't block. This is basically it. Half of the sacks we've gave up this season (there have been a lot), are coverage sacks where Rodgers has to hold onto the ball for a stupid amount of time. Randall Cobb is the brightest spark on our offense, I really think our offense around Rodgers has become overrated. Well at the least, they just aren't living up to the reputation, because they have been god awful.

Granted, he isn't playing well, and some of the blame obviously has to be put on him, but does anyone actually think this is just him being what he is and that last year was somehow the greatest fluke of all time? He's holding onto the ball too long, which is odd, because this was a major problem in the first half of 09 I think and he corrected it. I'm not worried about him, I am worried about our offense as a whole though. But it's definitely not a crisis just yet.

And yes, Jermichael Finley is not good.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker

Our receivers aren't getting open and our offensive line can't block. This is basically it. Half of the sacks we've gave up this season (there have been a lot), are coverage sacks where Rodgers has to hold onto the ball for a stupid amount of time. Randall Cobb is the brightest spark on our offense, I really think our offense around Rodgers has become overrated. Well at the least, they just aren't living up to the reputation, because they have been god awful.

Granted, he isn't playing well, and some of the blame obviously has to be put on him, but does anyone actually think this is just him being what he is and that last year was somehow the greatest fluke of all time? He's holding onto the ball too long, which is odd, because this was a major problem in the first half of 09 I think and he corrected it. I'm not worried about him, I am worried about our offense as a whole though. But it's definitely not a crisis just yet.

And yes, Jermichael Finley is not good.

For one, no one here has said anything about last season being a fluke for Rodgers. It was more him playing extremely well being amplified by a string of coincidences that put his season onto the "legendary" tier. Considering that no one ever had a season like that before, it's not a stretch to think that it's unlikely to happen again the very next year.

And Finley could be good, just not for the Packers offense. It's a timing based precision offense and he's a super athletic TE who is dumb as a brick and has severe lapses in concentration.

For a team like say, the Steelers, where the offense is nowhere near as precise, he could be great. But when it's 3rd and 5 and Rodgers puts the pass on his hands on a slant, he needs to catch it for that offense to work....he far too often doesn't catch it....

SuperPacker · 09-26-2012, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

And Finley could be good

What is this I don't even.

Agree with what you said on Rodgers, though.

Bert Macklin · 09-26-2012, 09:45 PM

If you didn't see it south park made fun of Goodell and the replacement refs. It was one of the best south park episodes ever.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bert Macklin

If you didn't see it south park made fun of Goodell and the replacement refs. It was one of the best south park episodes ever.

Meh. It was fun subject matter but the episode itself wasn't that great. It felt too forced.

Bert Macklin · 09-26-2012, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Meh. It was fun subject matter but the episode itself wasn't that great. It felt too forced.

That Is soooo cool that you're too mature for southpark now.

BeerBaron · 09-26-2012, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bert Macklin

That Is soooo cool that you're too mature for southpark now.

But I'm not. I watched it didn't I? I look forward to all new South Parks and watch the **** out of the reruns. I just didn't care for that one.

brat316 · 09-26-2012, 11:57 PM

BeerBaron is using what he learned from the episode.

BeerBaron · 09-27-2012, 08:26 AM

Anyone give the Browns a chance tonight? Anyone at all? Barring a complete meltdown by the Ravens in all phases of the game, I don't see it happening.

The Browns are a veryyy young team, on a short week, on the road, against a team that outclasses them at every single position.

Giantsfan1080 · 09-27-2012, 08:27 AM

I could see it. Ravens are coming off a 3 day rest. Then again the veteran team should really win the Thursday night game. How the heck did the NFL schedule the Ravens tonight coming off a Sunday night game?

AntoinCD · 09-27-2012, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Anyone give the Browns a chance tonight? Anyone at all? Barring a complete meltdown by the Ravens in all phases of the game, I don't see it happening.

The Browns are a veryyy young team, on a short week, on the road, against a team that outclasses them at every single position.

Well, any given Sunday and all that jazz. Too bad for the Browns it's only Thursday.

The only way Cleveland makes this close is if the Ravens suffer a major emotional let down after a huge prime time game on Sunday with the whole Torrey Smith thing.

The Ravens will go out and clamp down on Richardson and the Cleveland running game and the Browns really don't have the receiving options to threaten the Ravens secondary. I think Baltimore wins this one by two scores

jrdrylie · 09-27-2012, 09:27 AM

I give the Browns a chance based on last year. The Ravens beat a very good Houston team by two touchdowns. A week later, they play a greatly outmatched Jacksonville team, look terrible, and lose 12-7.