Quarter Season Thoughts

[scottyboy]

the mccourtys > cro.

that's all I'll say about that

[comahan]

Im not sure Houston has it all. Our OL is much, much worse than it was last year, particularly the right side with the loss of Winston, and the running game has suffered for it. Rashad Butler was going to replace him, but got injured. That was already a downgrade, but now Derek Newton is there, and hes... well hes not good. Next to him at RG is Antoine Caldwell, who is solid, but he's hurt now too, and Ben Jones (rookie, Georgia) has slid in to take his place. I keep seeing people say we have one of the best lines in football, and Im just not sure I agree. Arian is averaging 3.7 YPC this year, because the holes that were there the last two years just arent there this year. And we haven't even played a top defense yet.

That, and our D, while solid, really struggles against the running game. Reggie Bush tore us up, but we lucked out because JJ Watt is a machine and forced Tannehill to throw a pair of INTs via tipped balls. Even Chris Johnson ran wild on us this past weekend, but we lucked out again because Matt Hasselbeck is horrible.

That said, the aforementioned JJ Watt is easily the most dominant DL ive ever seen in a Texans uniform. Mario was really good, and could rush the passer while also stuffing the run, but JJ Watt is on another level. It's amazing to watch every week, dude is crazy.

[y.f.s.]

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

I've actually read somewhere about the poker and chess comparisons, and this is how it was explained:

In chess, you still have total control of your pieces. You want to move your Queen, you put her in the spot you want. In football, coaches are in control of decisions, but not execution. You have no control over how tired your left guard is, which causes him to blow a block he'd normally make, or get called for holding. That's how it's more like poker - you can number crunch to put yourself in a situation to make the best possible MOVE, but you still really don't have control over what cards come out.

Not to say coaches should be absolved of all blame for everything. The focus on those criticisms should come focused around organization and ability to adjust than raw, on-the-field execution so to speak.

Didn't take long for a page trap.

[bigbluedefense]

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

I've actually read somewhere about the poker and chess comparisons, and this is how it was explained:

In chess, you still have total control of your pieces. You want to move your Queen, you put her in the spot you want. In football, coaches are in control of decisions, but not execution. You have no control over how tired your left guard is, which causes him to blow a block he'd normally make, or get called for holding. That's how it's more like poker - you can number crunch to put yourself in a situation to make the best possible MOVE, but you still really don't have control over what cards come out.

Not to say coaches should be absolved of all blame for everything. The focus on those criticisms should come focused around organization and ability to adjust than raw, on-the-field execution so to speak.

I'm not letting this post get page trapped.

Nvm.

[bigbluedefense]

I forgot to mention 2 bears that I want to talk about:

1. Lance Briggs. Criminally underrated his entire career. He's aging now, but the man is a hell of a LB who never got the shine he deserved bc he plays next to Urlacher.

Matt Schwartz recently gave Bowman a lot of praise by calling him a young Lance Briggs. And he's right, their games are so similar.

2. This Melton character is really having a heck of a season. I don't know enough about him yet to form an opinion, but he's caught my eye and I'm gonna start scouting him.

[y.f.s.]

I think there are two inherently different coaching skillsets, too, in terms of being able to analyze and prepare over the course of the week and the type of elite, cognitive processing ability it takes to observe everything during a game and make spur-of-the-moment decisions and adjustments.

Those two things don't often go hand-in-hand.

[prock]

Talk about the Vikings god damnit.

[Ravens1991]

About Cameron he has gotten so much **** because he didnt adjust to the talent he had. Yes last year his #1 WR that could only run deep balls. But he also had Boldin who was sent deep all the time too. Flacco for years asked to run the no huddle and he said **** you no. He hasnt let Flacco audible yet. He is a control freak and you can just listen to his press conferences and hear a Brian Billick level ego. He was bashed in the Philly game because Rice was tearing it up and he didnt get the ball. There were 6 3rd and 2s, 4th and 2s, 4th and 1s and we ran the ball ZERO times during them even though we had Leach and Rice both were healthy.

[AntoinCD]

I do like the poker analogy. In chess there is always a "right" move to make statistically. However, in poker, like football, at times you have to make a call which is not necessarily the right call but is based more on gut feeling and a knowledge of your opponent.

For instance, in poker, if I have noticed the guy to my right normally flat calls or checks with a medium pocket pair before the flop I will be more hesitant to raise post flop if the board is middle cards. Likewise if I have noticed he raises with a hand such as A-10, A-J a lot I would be more tempted to raise post flop with medium cards on the board. This is my pre snap read.

In football, if I start out the game in 12 formation and run on early downs I may notice the LBs and safeties cheating up to the line of scrimmage often. At some point I will throw out of a power package, possibly off play action to exploit their tendancies.

Defensively, if the opposing offense likes to run with their LG pulling out of power formation I may ask one of my LBs to shoot the gap he is vacating.

Football is a game won, not by having more talent, but by maximising your strengths and exploiting your opponent's weaknesses. These weaknesses cannot be confirmed until you know their tendancies. Then it's a case knowing when to bluff. If I go play action before establishing the run then it wont work as well as I would expect.

This is why we hear guys talking about running to set up the pass, or alternatively passing to set up the run.

When you have an established QB who can make good pre snap reads then it is all about playing the percentages. When the defense comes out with single high safety looks then they are calling with a medium pocket pair. At this stage the offense needs to decide whether to just check post flop and run against this, or do they raise and throw against this coverage. Normally it is the right play to throw against an 8 man box, however maybe this is the time the defense has lulled you in and actually drop the extra safety back at the last minute. Maybe they have checked with pocket aces.

That's my poker analogy well and truely worn out!

[y.f.s.]

Originally Posted by prock

Talk about the Vikings god damnit.

You're welcome for Christian Ponder.

**** Gene Smith.

[bigbluedefense]

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

I think there are two inherently different coaching skillsets, too, in terms of being able to analyze and prepare over the course of the week and the type of elite, cognitive processing ability it takes to observe everything during a game and make spur-of-the-moment decisions and adjustments.

Those two things don't often go hand-in-hand.

Which would you choose if you had to have one or the other?

[cmarq83]

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

I think there are two inherently different coaching skillsets, too, in terms of being able to analyze and prepare over the course of the week and the type of elite, cognitive processing ability it takes to observe everything during a game and make spur-of-the-moment decisions and adjustments.

Those two things don't often go hand-in-hand.

This. A guy like Josh McDaniels can draw up an offensive game plan that can hang 50 on anybody, but the guy doesn't change anything in game if that game plan isn't working. If anything he just gets more conservative.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

I forgot to mention 2 bears that I want to talk about:

1. Lance Briggs. Criminally underrated his entire career. He's aging now, but the man is a hell of a LB who never got the shine he deserved bc he plays next to Urlacher.

Matt Schwartz recently gave Bowman a lot of praise by calling him a young Lance Briggs. And he's right, their games are so similar.

2. This Melton character is really having a heck of a season. I don't know enough about him yet to form an opinion, but he's caught my eye and I'm gonna start scouting him.

Melton is probably one of the most underrated players in the entire NFL. If you asked the common NFL fan to name players on the Bears, he'd probably be the 11th player named at the earliest but he is really an excellent DT. I hope we have enough money to lock him up with a long term deal but with how he is playing, the price might be too steep.

[y.f.s.]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

I do like the poker analogy. In chess there is always a "right" move to make statistically. However, in poker, like football, at times you have to make a call which is not necessarily the right call but is based more on gut feeling and a knowledge of your opponent.

For instance, in poker, if I have noticed the guy to my right normally flat calls or checks with a medium pocket pair before the flop I will be more hesitant to raise post flop if the board is middle cards. Likewise if I have noticed he raises with a hand such as A-10, A-J a lot I would be more tempted to raise post flop with medium cards on the board. This is my pre snap read.

In football, if I start out the game in 12 formation and run on early downs I may notice the LBs and safeties cheating up to the line of scrimmage often. At some point I will throw out of a power package, possibly off play action to exploit their tendancies.

Defensively, if the opposing offense likes to run with their LG pulling out of power formation I may ask one of my LBs to shoot the gap he is vacating.

Football is a game won, not by having more talent, but by maximising your strengths and exploiting your opponent's weaknesses. These weaknesses cannot be confirmed until you know their tendancies. Then it's a case knowing when to bluff. If I go play action before establishing the run then it wont work as well as I would expect.

This is why we hear guys talking about running to set up the pass, or alternatively passing to set up the run.

When you have an established QB who can make good pre snap reads then it is all about playing the percentages. When the defense comes out with single high safety looks then they are calling with a medium pocket pair. At this stage the offense needs to decide whether to just check post flop and run against this, or do they raise and throw against this coverage. Normally it is the right play to throw against an 8 man box, however maybe this is the time the defense has lulled you in and actually drop the extra safety back at the last minute. Maybe they have checked with pocket aces.

That's my poker analogy well and truely worn out!

This is way more perfect than I could ever have explained it.

[49ersfan_87]

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

You're welcome for Christian Ponder.

**** Gene Smith.

Is his job in jeapordy? This is his 4th year on the job and the Jaguars look no closer to competing now than they did in 09. And not just picking Gabbert but trading a 1st AND 2nd for him over Ponder, Dalton, Watt, among other players...thats the kind of move that gets you fired if it doesn't work, and it hasn't been. Gabbert had a good game against Minnesota but has really struggled otherwise this year.

[bigbluedefense]

Originally Posted by Ravens1991

About Cameron he has gotten so much **** because he didnt adjust to the talent he had. Yes last year his #1 WR that could only run deep balls. But he also had Boldin who was sent deep all the time too. Flacco for years asked to run the no huddle and he said **** you no. He hasnt let Flacco audible yet. He is a control freak and you can just listen to his press conferences and hear a Brian Billick level ego. He was bashed in the Philly game because Rice was tearing it up and he didnt get the ball. There were 6 3rd and 2s, 4th and 2s, 4th and 1s and we ran the ball ZERO times during them even though we had Leach and Rice both were healthy.

Cam is good for one of those wtf games every season. He got his out of the way early this season.

Overall though, the guy is a pretty good coordinator. Brees, Rivers, and Flacco all have played under his system. That's a good resume.

Originally Posted by prock

Talk about the Vikings god damnit.

I don't know what to make of them yet. I think Detroit took a step back, I think Chicago's OL woes and aging defense are going to make them inconsistent all season, and I just don't know what the Vikings are yet. Ponder has promise, Rudolph has promise, Simpson isn't terrible, Percy is good when healthy, AP is AP, the defense lacks overall talent but Frazier does a good job with the unit.

I don't know. I honestly don't know.

[y.f.s.]

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

Melton is probably one of the most underrated players in the entire NFL. If you asked the common NFL fan to name players on the Bears, he'd probably be the 11th player named at the earliest but he is really an excellent DT. I hope we have enough money to lock him up with a long term deal but with how he is playing, the price might be too steep.

Oh, just wait until Chicago runs their Double 3-tech package with Melton and Peppers inside and Sugar the A-gaps this weekend against Jacksonville. They're going to set a sack record this week.

Also Ravens, have you considered Rice's usage during the last few weeks might have something to do with playing 3 games in 12 days or whatever it was?

[comahan]

The fact that Henry Melton is probably the 2nd best defensive player (Orakpo) to come off of those great Texas defenses in 05/06/etc is hilarious to me.

[bigbluedefense]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

I do like the poker analogy. In chess there is always a "right" move to make statistically. However, in poker, like football, at times you have to make a call which is not necessarily the right call but is based more on gut feeling and a knowledge of your opponent.

For instance, in poker, if I have noticed the guy to my right normally flat calls or checks with a medium pocket pair before the flop I will be more hesitant to raise post flop if the board is middle cards. Likewise if I have noticed he raises with a hand such as A-10, A-J a lot I would be more tempted to raise post flop with medium cards on the board. This is my pre snap read.

In football, if I start out the game in 12 formation and run on early downs I may notice the LBs and safeties cheating up to the line of scrimmage often. At some point I will throw out of a power package, possibly off play action to exploit their tendancies.

Defensively, if the opposing offense likes to run with their LG pulling out of power formation I may ask one of my LBs to shoot the gap he is vacating.

Football is a game won, not by having more talent, but by maximising your strengths and exploiting your opponent's weaknesses. These weaknesses cannot be confirmed until you know their tendancies. Then it's a case knowing when to bluff. If I go play action before establishing the run then it wont work as well as I would expect.

This is why we hear guys talking about running to set up the pass, or alternatively passing to set up the run.

When you have an established QB who can make good pre snap reads then it is all about playing the percentages. When the defense comes out with single high safety looks then they are calling with a medium pocket pair. At this stage the offense needs to decide whether to just check post flop and run against this, or do they raise and throw against this coverage. Normally it is the right play to throw against an 8 man box, however maybe this is the time the defense has lulled you in and actually drop the extra safety back at the last minute. Maybe they have checked with pocket aces.

That's my poker analogy well and truely worn out!

Great post.

[y.f.s.]

Originally Posted by 49ersfan_87

Is his job in jeapordy? This is his 4th year on the job and the Jaguars look no closer to competing now than they did in 09. And not just picking Gabbert but trading a 1st AND 2nd for him over Ponder, Dalton, Watt, among other players...thats the kind of move that gets you fired if it doesn't work, and it hasn't been. Gabbert had a good game against Minnesota but has really struggled otherwise this year.

They've had four straight years of top ten picks and are getting worse every season, so yeah.

They're two Cecil Shorts miracles away from being the worst team in the NFL (by far).

Originally Posted by prock

Talk about the Vikings god damnit.

I wrote about them after week one, too. Talks about scripts and gameplanning, so it's probably appropriate for this thread.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2012/9/...alysis-defense

[Ravens1991]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

Cam is good for one of those wtf games every season. He got his out of the way early this season.

Overall though, the guy is a pretty good coordinator. Brees, Rivers, and Flacco all have played under his system. That's a good resume.



.

Brees and Rivers stats improved when Cam left. We will see if Flacco ever gets away from Cam. The offense has been improving with Cam once we finally got weapons we will see how it plays out for the rest of the season. Cam never seems to be able to make in game adjustments that his weakness.

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

Also Ravens, have you considered Rice's usage during the last few weeks might have something to do with playing 3 games in 12 days or whatever it was?

That is a good point but teh eagles game was week 2. Also it didnt have to be Rice we have Bernard Pierce a 220 pound rookie who has been looking pretty good. Im sure him behind Leach he can get 1 or 2 yards most of the time.

[Bulldogs]

If we're talking top five corners I think Asante might be in the discussion this year. Really don't remember him being beat at any point. Doesn't have the INTs yet, but I think teams are shying away from him and going at Dunta (who himself has improved tenfold this season) more often than not.

[bigbluedefense]

Originally Posted by Bulldogs

If we're talking top five corners I think Asante might be in the discussion this year. Really don't remember him being beat at any point. Doesn't have the INTs yet, but I think teams are shying away from him and going at Dunta (who himself has improved tenfold this season) more often than not.

I've said ever since the trade was made: The Eagles got rid of the wrong CB.

I stand by that.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by 49ersfan_87

Is his job in jeapordy? This is his 4th year on the job and the Jaguars look no closer to competing now than they did in 09. And not just picking Gabbert but trading a 1st AND 2nd for him over Ponder, Dalton, Watt, among other players...thats the kind of move that gets you fired if it doesn't work, and it hasn't been. Gabbert had a good game against Minnesota but has really struggled otherwise this year.

His job is definitely in jeopardy. Some of my friends are huge Gabbert apologists and really bought into thet "In Gene We Trust" crap. Even they are jumping on the Fire Gene Smith Bandwagon. In his four years, he has not drafted a pro bowler yet (though Anger will make some Pro Bowls). A big issue with this team is pass rush, well he passesd on guys like Orakpo and JPP while trading up for Gabbert when they could have stayed put and grabbed Kerrigan.

[AntoinCD]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

Great post.

Originally Posted by y.f.s.

This is way more perfect than I could ever have explained it.

Thanks guys.

The more I think about it I think this analogy is pretty spot on and takes in more than simply general situational football.

Look at the end of games. The biggest killer for teams protecting a lead are getting ultra-conservative on offense and playing prevent defense.

Imagine you are in a big tournament and you are one spot away from the money. You don't want to make a mistake and go out on the bubble. Therefore you tighten up and make less bets and less calls, hoping that someone with a lower chip stack goes out before you. However your opponents realise that this is happening and start stealing the blinds and cut into your chips.

You see teams with a 6 point lead get the ball back at their own 20 with 4 minutes to go. The other team has one timeout, two really with the 2 minute warning. You probably need at least two first downs. You have moved the ball at will through the air and have built a good ground game based on the defense backing off. However they know you want to eat up some clock so they crowd the line of scrimmage. Instead of taking a shot down the field most playcallers will run against this front to take the 40 seconds off the clock. Often what happens is you have a minimal gain on first, minimal gain on second and leave yourself with a long 3rd down try. Football common sense dictates that you should try and leave yourself 3 and 6 or less because it opens the playbook. However by being conservative and running against 8 and 9 man boxes you're left with a 3rd an 9. The defense is now in a position to force a 3 and out and get the ball back with 2 minutes remaining.

Prevent defense is a ******* joke. You're up 6 points and the opposing team has the ball at their 20 with 2 minutes and one timeout remaining. You give up the underneath stuff in the middle of the field but stop the big play and also to stop WRs getting out of bounds. However before you know it there is one minute left, one timeout remaining and the ball is in your territory, thus putting your defense under needless pressure.

Why change what has worked for you all game? You have made it this far in the tournament by being aggressive at the right time without being reckless. Why all of a sudden go into your shell because the pressure has built?