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Old 11-19-2012, 11:37 PM    (permalink
detroit4life
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Ahh back to this again....

I think it is guaranteed a CB or DE. Maybe LB but Te'o doesn't make sense when we just signed tulloch.

Mayhew is bound to make some serious cuts after this season. I expect KVB and Burleson gone. Avril shown the door or re-signed to a lower contract than we offered last offseason. I have to assume Corey Williams will be traded or cut, fairley needs to be playing every down as a #13 overall pick.

Other cuts will be backus or gosder. This will allow Mayhew to bring in atleast 1 veteran DB and franchise delmas. Therefore I think DE is a good bet.

Mingo would add some scary speed next to suh and fairley....
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Old 11-20-2012, 07:52 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by detroit4life View Post
Ahh back to this again....

I think it is guaranteed a CB or DE. Maybe LB but Te'o doesn't make sense when we just signed tulloch.

Mayhew is bound to make some serious cuts after this season. I expect KVB and Burleson gone. Avril shown the door or re-signed to a lower contract than we offered last offseason. I have to assume Corey Williams will be traded or cut, fairley needs to be playing every down as a #13 overall pick.

Other cuts will be backus or gosder. This will allow Mayhew to bring in atleast 1 veteran DB and franchise delmas. Therefore I think DE is a good bet.

Mingo would add some scary speed next to suh and fairley....
Corey Williams, Levy, Delmas, Durant, Avril, Lawrence Jackson, Chris Houston, Sammie Lee Hill, Lacey, Florence, Ashlee Palmer, Jason Hanson, Gosder Cherilus are free agents. Willie Young, Jason Fox and Spievey are restricted free agents.

Out of those I think Delmas is franchised due to knee issues and the safety tag not being bad, hopefully we get Houston back or we are in trouble in the secondary as he is the only consistent cover man, Sammie Lee Hill back and cheaper than free agent Corey Williams and one of Durant or Levy back but probably not both (Tahir Whitehead or Travis Lewis may be playing next year). It's going to be very tight because Stafford is over 20 million cap number with not much wiggle room from allocated signing bonuses and Suh is at 18 plus million cap number. New contract for Suh could help but Stafford has too much signing bonus money due. The old CBA and now some restructures we made still screws us.

Raiola, KVB and Burleson will be cap cuts. No doubt about that. KVB has sucked so bad this year. Avril depends on what we can offer, he's our only solid DE but he's not a good DE like he thinks. He may walk if they don't agree on the contract.

Gosder might be resigned if they get rid of Backus. But I think I'd rather let Gosder walk, roll with Reiff and Backus for a year.

Hanson enjoy him while you can, we might not have the cap luxury for a 3 million dollar kicker.

Changes are coming in Motown. Some could be addition by subtraction but some we may not be able to replace especially if Avril and Houston walk.
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Old 11-22-2012, 04:54 PM    (permalink
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I think corey williams is gone. Fairley has played great and his price tag too high.
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Old 12-11-2012, 10:34 PM    (permalink
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Do you mean Dee Milliner? Mark Barron was drafted by TB last year #7 overall.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:52 PM    (permalink
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I don't know much about anybody yet.. but so far I'm thinking Sam Montgomery might be a good one for us. Xavier Rhodes intrigues me.

I mainly judge players based on their size and name. Some guys just don't have the name of a good player. For example, Bjoern Werner does not sound like a good player name. I will pass on him.

and yes, I am aware that this means we'll be drafting Bjoern Werner.
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Old 12-12-2012, 06:32 AM    (permalink
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I think the DE's are in play so Guys like Woerner, Mingo, Montgomery and Damontre Moore enter the discussion. I think T'eo is the next Urlacher. Jarvis Jones is a contender and might be too good to pass up. Then there is Banks, Milliner and Vaccaro. Also, there is Joekel and Warmack. If the pick does not come from these eleven guys I should eat my hat.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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Draft Order(i'm using SoS that is a week old, so should be a little off)

Kansas City 2-12 .485 vs Indy, @Denver
Jacksonville 2-12 .550 vs NE, @Tennessee
Philadelphia 4-10 .497 vs Washington, @NYG
Oakland 4-10 .497 @Carolina, @San Diego
Detroit 4-10 .556 vs Atlanta, vs Chicago
Tennessee 4-9 .550 vs NYJ, @Green Bay, vs Jacksonville

and we have Atlanta and Chicago left...

I'm praying for the top two to stupidly reach for Geno and Barkley. Philly could go oline or DE and then Oakland can take Star.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:57 AM    (permalink
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I don't know much about anybody yet.. but so far I'm thinking Sam Montgomery might be a good one for us. Xavier Rhodes intrigues me.

I mainly judge players based on their size and name. Some guys just don't have the name of a good player. For example, Bjoern Werner does not sound like a good player name. I will pass on him.

and yes, I am aware that this means we'll be drafting Bjoern Werner.
His name makes me laugh because it starts with a "BJ".

Milliner is my #1 choice right now, followed closely by Te'o. We need leadership, and I think Te'o would bring that in spades.
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Old 12-17-2012, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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Ok well we are now looking at drafting at the 5 spot. With ATL and CHI it is a good chance we could end up top 3.

With that said, If we are in a position to draft Joeckel do we have to do it? I know it once again ignores our greatest needs. But it also solidifies our Oline with a future LT and RT.

Allows us to cut backus and gosder or move backus to OG (doubtful).

Not saying I like this idea. It is just a very interesting situation considering Mayhew's known to go BPA and he would have to intrigued at grabbing an elite LT prospect.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:12 PM    (permalink
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If someone would've told me we were picking in the Top 5 before the season started, I would have stabbed their face off. I knew it was gonna be a tough schedule and expected a little bit of a down year but still.. This season has been a huge mess. Calvin being on the verge of breaking Jerry Rice's record just doesn't even feel that special with the season we're having.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:34 PM    (permalink
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Ok well we are now looking at drafting at the 5 spot. With ATL and CHI it is a good chance we could end up top 3.

With that said, If we are in a position to draft Joeckel do we have to do it? I know it once again ignores our greatest needs. But it also solidifies our Oline with a future LT and RT.

Allows us to cut backus and gosder or move backus to OG (doubtful).

Not saying I like this idea. It is just a very interesting situation considering Mayhew's known to go BPA and he would have to intrigued at grabbing an elite LT prospect.
Yeah, it'd be tough to pass up the best OT prospect. We could have Joeckel and Reiff at the OT spots for hopefully the next 10+ years. But it ignores our Defensive needs which are just all over the place..

There's no way we can be this bad next year, so maybe Mayhew will offer up our 2014 Round 1 pick for a Round 1 pick this year, probably in the 20's somewhere, and target Defense or a Guard/Center with that pick and our 2nd Rounder. I don't know, maybe something like:

1. OT Luke Joeckel
1. OG/C Barrett Jones / OT/G DJ Fluker / DE Ezekiel Ansah / DE Sam Montgomery / ???
2. CB Xavier Rhodes / S Eric Reid / ???

I don't know... maybe we could go for Milliner and address OL and stuff later.. who knows.. but it's only 4 months away, we gotta start planning!
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Old 12-17-2012, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Picking top 5 is where we should ignore all need. Its a future shaping pick. The talent is at DE, LBer, and potentially LT. If we net a top flight pass rusher, left tackle of the future, or a true game and culture changer on defense with that first pick then we take it. I do want to see how Joeckel stacks up to previous LTs, but if he's truly the next Joe Thomas, then let's do it.

As for our secondary...I think Dee is in play, but I don't know why we'd put a giant emphasis on it now when they've never done that in the past. Also, our guys will be smarter and the game will slow down for our 3 rookies next year. We need Houston back, but I think a full offseason program and a year of experience should allow for some growth. I think an impact safety is much more of a need. We can't rely on Delmas to do everything and he's breaking down.

1st round:
Joeckel/Jones/Moore/Te'o/Mingo
2nd round:
Reid/Next available safety/Rhodes/Amerson/Trufant/Zach Ertz because Pettigrew pisses me off
3rd round:
Travis Frederick G/C Wisconsin
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Old 12-18-2012, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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actually...finally checking thenetrat again...I think the easiest solution to our problem is the 'get rid of Avril' option. If we clear his 10.6 million, then we can give Houston 3m, resign Durant and Levy for 4, have a couple million for escalations in Stafford, Calvin, and Suh's contracts. We would still have our starting offensive line with Reiff essentially replacing Cherilus(but probably playing left) and anybody else that we want to cut or lose is pretty replaceable. Not bringing back Corey Williams and resigning SLH just makes things easier. We can keep Burleson if he looks like he'll recover just fine and we can trade Titus to anyone else for pretty much anything. I'd take a 6th rounder.

Draft a top flight DE, safety, C/G, Right Tackle, and another WR.
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Old 12-18-2012, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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actually...finally checking thenetrat again...I think the easiest solution to our problem is the 'get rid of Avril' option. If we clear his 10.6 million, then we can give Houston 3m, resign Durant and Levy for 4, have a couple million for escalations in Stafford, Calvin, and Suh's contracts. We would still have our starting offensive line with Reiff essentially replacing Cherilus(but probably playing left) and anybody else that we want to cut or lose is pretty replaceable. Not bringing back Corey Williams and resigning SLH just makes things easier. We can keep Burleson if he looks like he'll recover just fine and we can trade Titus to anyone else for pretty much anything. I'd take a 6th rounder.

Draft a top flight DE, safety, C/G, Right Tackle, and another WR.
They'll have 20-25 million with cap casualties of KVB, Burleson and maybe Raiola or Peterman and let Avril and Corey Williams walk. Unless there is some bonus escalation based on performance. Calvin for example breaking the yardage record.
If they can bring back Burleson after cutting him I say go for it but depends on his injury and Broyles injury. Plenty of money to bring back Houston and Delmas, Lee-Hill and possibly both starting OLBs with 20 million.

Gosder they can either cut Backus for a cap casualty to save money for Gosder money and re-sign Gosder with that money or let Gosder walk and roll with Reiff and Backus for a year at tackle.

Avril all depends on how much he wants.
Lacey/Florence I let walk and roll with Bentley, Green and Greenwood with Houston and hopefully a draft CB.

Decisioin needs to be made on Hanson who is a free agent.

Some backups too like Ashlee Palmer, Lawrence Jackson, Corey Hilliard restricted free agency for Willie Young, Jason Fox and Amari Spievey.

Trading Young and what to do with Bests contract.

Going to be an interesting offseason at least.

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Old 12-19-2012, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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The only thing that sucks is that Avril will want too much. Even if he ignores Mario Williams and Charles Johnson's contracts, he'll eye Calais Campbell's 5 yr 55 million and want 5/60. We're overpaying him a touch right now at 10.6, so I'm not a big fan of guaranteeing him more.

Which means, we'll have to draft a DE, Safety help (or Vet? Trade for Titus?), and more interior oline help. I like Travis Frederick from Wisconsin to replace Peterman and eventually take over for Raiola. They can hopefully draft him in the 3rd and use him like they've used Reiff. Frederick is a little big, but we won't be so soft up the middle with him there.

It sucks, because I want safety help to pair with Delmas...but Xavier Rhodes, Amerson, Trufant, etc would be nice to have. Maybe Shawn Williams or Phillip Thomas later can make up for not drafting Reid in the 2nd.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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I'm afraid of Houston's demands too. The Lions don't get any better just replacing Houston with a rookie talented corner via the draft.

Interesting they signed Ron Bartell to a 2 year deal. Florence and Lacey are gone.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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1: DE- Damontre Moore
2: S- David Amerson or Eric Reid
3: OG-Travis Frederick

Use the money we save by letting Avril walk on a CB, I'd love to see us get a guy like Sean Smith or Brent Grimes

Vastly Improved Secondary, Interior Oline help, and a young DE to replace Avril who I think is the best DE in the draft.
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Old 12-19-2012, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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I like Smith and Grimes. I want the man press guys. If we wanted to...its 5 years too late, but Aso could be cut by the Eagles after they get rid of Andy Reid.
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Old 12-19-2012, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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I like Smith and Grimes. I want the man press guys. If we wanted to...its 5 years too late, but Aso could be cut by the Eagles after they get rid of Andy Reid.
Yeah good point. I definitely think he will be cut. He would make as a great pick up too.

I agree with the man press guys. With the DLine we have man press guys would make our defense very good.

The way this draft is shaking up it seems like we are better off drafting a DE early and signing a veteran CB with the money we would be giving to Avril.
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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DaMontre Moore or T'eo or Joekel. That's where they go.
Really Joekel, or Lewan and Barrett Jones in the first two rounds and maybe Stafford can start working on his mechanics/footwork with a real QB coach.., bye Linehan.
If they go Moore or T'eo they re-work DE with Moore in the first or T'eo then Ansah. Write off Cliff and his 12 million+.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:02 PM    (permalink
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1: DE- Damontre Moore
2: S- David Amerson or Eric Reid
3: OG-Travis Frederick

Use the money we save by letting Avril walk on a CB, I'd love to see us get a guy like Sean Smith or Brent Grimes

Vastly Improved Secondary, Interior Oline help, and a young DE to replace Avril who I think is the best DE in the draft.
I agree I think that would be the perfect offseason but I just don't see us getting Houston back and another high priced corner. Avril off the books gives us 10.6 million but Stafford and Suh's cap number will raise about 10 million and 7 million respectively with not much wiggle room with a new deal for each them due to the restructures they have made with allocated signing bonuses.
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Old 12-22-2012, 05:30 AM    (permalink
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There are significant savings to be had in Jeff Backus 7.5M, Dom Raiola 4.5M,
Nate Burleson, 2.5 M, Gosder Cherilous 3M, Titus salary?, Kevin Jones salary, cut out the 12.5+M for Avril, 5M for Vandenbosch... Say they draft Joekel or Lewan and get Barrett Jones for center. They drop 15 million in salary and pick up 5 or 6M for a bonus of 9+M. OL is fixed for ten years with Rieff at RT, Lewan(or the guy from CMU) at LT and Jones at C/G.
That is just an example. I'm not advocating that position but I could see it as a way to go esp, if they trade down and get an extra 2nd rd. draft pick to bolster the defense.
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Old 12-23-2012, 12:14 AM    (permalink
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There are significant savings to be had in Jeff Backus 7.5M, Dom Raiola 4.5M,
Nate Burleson, 2.5 M, Gosder Cherilous 3M, Titus salary?, Kevin Jones salary, cut out the 12.5+M for Avril, 5M for Vandenbosch... Say they draft Joekel or Lewan and get Barrett Jones for center. They drop 15 million in salary and pick up 5 or 6M for a bonus of 9+M. OL is fixed for ten years with Rieff at RT, Lewan(or the guy from CMU) at LT and Jones at C/G.
That is just an example. I'm not advocating that position but I could see it as a way to go esp, if they trade down and get an extra 2nd rd. draft pick to bolster the defense.
I agree, there are definitely a lot of cuts that can be made to clear up some space. I doubt Raiola is cut this year but all the others are very likely to happen IMO, along with corey williams who is a 5 M cap hit as well.

I am not sure what type of jumps stafford and suh will get but that will be the big determination in how much room we will have.
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Old 12-26-2012, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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So I totaled the sacks hits and hurries for the Lions for the DEs and DTS and compared to 2011.

DE sacks were down 11 compared to 2011, hits were up 2 for DEs and hurries were 50 less than 2011. I think that 50 less has something to do with a lack of turnovers.

DT sacks up 6, hits up 18 compared to 2011 and hurries were down 7 compared to 2011. DT is just fine with Fairley and Suh rushing the passer. Both having top 5 years for DTs. Suh is 2nd and Fairley is 5th in the league.

Also blitz sacks were down 4 compared to 2011 (6 to 2).

57 less hurries is the reason we have 17 less turnovers on top of the 3 strip sacks that the Lions didn't recover this time. Avril had 6 on his own last year. KVB had one at least.

If they don't draft a DE, they are in trouble.
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Old 12-26-2012, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Avril's 20something tackles every year just isn't cutting it either. I'm in love with Damontre Moore. He's a freak and might as well be renamed Von Miller.
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