SWDC Mafia Game Thread (Town Wins!)

[TitanHope]

Originally Posted by Rob S

God dammit, guys. Seriously?

CALM DOWN AND LET THE PEOPLE SPEAK, ROBERT!

[Todd Bertuzzi]

Ugh someone who is pro TH please explain to me the upside of keeping him around?

Chances are he will kill another town aligned player tonight and we will be having this same argument tomorrow.

[Jensen]

Originally Posted by vidae

Yeah but why risk the chances that he kills someone who is good, with a very important power?

If TH lives and he takes out a Bodyguard/Doctor or an Investigator by accident, how forgiving with we be? Why even take that chance?

the chances of him taking out a bodyguard/doctor/investigator is less than him taking out a mafia/sk. i'm betting there's at least 7 or 8 mafia/SK left and there's probably 2 bodyguard, 1 doctor, 2 investigator town-aligned maybe? again, anything can happen with the chances but i believe the chances are higher to hit a mafia/sk (even bulletproof) than an important town role.

[vikes_28]

you know we can play the "what if" game all night...but then TWO people get killed. I'll change my vote if it moves us along. But if there's even a SMALL chance that TH can take out mafia, we want that chance.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by Todd Bertuzzi

Ugh someone who is pro TH please explain to me the upside of keeping him around?

Chances are he will kill another town aligned player tonight and we will be having this same argument tomorrow.

There are 30 people left. Eliminate TH and you have 29. Let's say 6 mafia and a serial killer. So choosing blindly, TH has a 24% chance of hitting a bad guy. Now, I'm sure TH has a little intuition and can tel at least 3 people are good. Now there are 26 choices, or 27%. Those aren't great odds.

Now, let's say he only chooses to kill among the bottom 5 posters. Even if all of those are good guys, so what? They aren't helping us. At least TH is contributing and can help us root out evil. So if I'm going to lose a good guy, I'd rather it be a useless non-poster than a vigilante who is actually posting. And I would guess at least one of the bottom posters is evil.

And there is also a chance (albeit small) that TH could kill someone who is protected, jailkept, or killed by another faction (there are at least 2 other kills). Just roughly estimated statistics put the chance of TH actually killing an evil person at around 63%. Those aren't horrible odds.

[Todd Bertuzzi]

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

There are 30 people left. Eliminate TH and you have 29. Let's say 6 mafia and a serial killer. So choosing blindly, TH has a 24% chance of hitting a bad guy. Now, I'm sure TH has a little intuition and can tel at least 3 people are good. Now there are 26 choices, or 27%. Those aren't great odds.

Now, let's say he only chooses to kill among the bottom 5 posters. Even if all of those are good guys, so what? They aren't helping us. At least TH is contributing and can help us root out evil. So if I'm going to lose a good guy, I'd rather it be a useless non-poster than a vigilante who is actually posting. And I would guess at least one of the bottom posters is evil.

And there is also a chance (albeit small) that TH could kill someone who is protected, jailkept, or killed by another faction (there are at least 2 other kills). Just roughly estimated statistics put the chance of TH actually killing an evil person at around 63%. Those aren't horrible odds.

You have no way of knowing this. I would bet there's a few important roles hiding in there somewhere. These numbers you are throwing out are almost as ludicrous as the one time broth tried to give each player a % chance they were evil.

[Gay Ork Wang]

Lets just throw out more hypotheticals out there!

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Originally Posted by Cutey Wooty

ATL isn't talking much. He is much more vocal in this normally....

This is true, but from the sign up thread:

Originally Posted by ATLDirtyBirds

Probably won't be nearly as active as previously, but I'm in. It's been a while. There are jimmies to be rustled.

I won't truly be completely free until Sunday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see myself get killed before then, as the mafia will likely see me as a good target due to my inactivity.



To weigh in, as far as killing Bulldogs? No. He's most likely scar, who has become an obnoxious Bleacher Report guy.


On Brodeur, I don't think he's the play, yet. We don't have any important players outed yet. A roleblock of a jailkeep is nothing more than a shot in the dark. Considering the game size, I don't think we'd get ****** too hard either way. Or he can just not act...

On TH, this is probably our best play at this point, if he truly does have to kill every night (sorry, just tried to catch up).

In scrolling back however, I would just like to note that Vidae and Gonzo are on my short list. Their back and forth seemed like something that could have been hatched up in mafia discussion.

That being said:

unvote: OSU
vote:TH


The dude was even going to fall on his sword. Let him have his wish.

[Shane P. Hallam]

With 30 members remaining, 16 votes are needed for a majority:

TitanHope (11) - Brothgar, CJSchneider, TBW, Rufus, Todd Bertuzzi, scotty, McGee, Snicho, Rob S, vidae, ATL

Bulldogs (8) - Jensen, Brodeur, Jvig, fenikz, Woot, Dr. Gonzo, Titanhope, Forenci


Brodeur (6) – GOW, Bulldogs, Caddy, BeerBaron, Deep, vikes,


CJSchneider (1) - jrdrylie


If no majority is reached by 6:30 AM EST, the top two votegetters will be lynched.

[Rob S]

Originally Posted by TitanHope

CALM DOWN AND LET THE PEOPLE SPEAK, ROBERT!

Sorry, TH. I love you, but you or Brody must die. The fact that we even let it go to trivia was illogical. The fact that we may not kill one of you is far, far worse. I'm taking off in 10. I want TH dead by then.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by Todd Bertuzzi

You have no way of knowing this. I would bet there's a few important roles hiding in there somewhere. These numbers you are throwing out are almost as ludicrous as the one time broth tried to give each player a % chance they were evil.

Anybody who has a power role and is staying low key is a fool. The serial killer usually likes to pick these guys off as they are easy pickings. If they aren't killed by the serial killer, people often jump on them for being inactive. That can force an unnecessary role reveal.

As for my statistics, yeah, they aren't 100% correct. But there is a 73% that if he picks a good guy. There is also a 97% chance each that he chooses someone who isn't protected, killed by the mafia or serial killer, or jailkept. Calculate for those slim chances and you land around 65% chance of killing an additional good guy. And that is only assuming one protector and no winner of trivia. Add those and you get around 40% chance of getting a bad guy. I like those odds.

[jrdrylie]

Why would scar be in this game? He has 400 posts. The only way I could think he would be in this game is if he is a banned poster, which would mean Bulldogs is evil and should be lynched.

[Rob S]

I have 20 minutes now. Send him straight to hell where he belongs.

[Brodeur]

I'm standing by my vote.

[Wootylicous]

Dafuq Rob ?

I'm staying with my vote too.

[Todd Bertuzzi]

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

Anybody who has a power role and is staying low key is a fool. The serial killer usually likes to pick these guys off as they are easy pickings. If they aren't killed by the serial killer, people often jump on them for being inactive. That can force an unnecessary role reveal.

As for my statistics, yeah, they aren't 100% correct. But there is a 73% that if he picks a good guy. There is also a 97% chance each that he chooses someone who isn't protected, killed by the mafia or serial killer, or jailkept. Calculate for those slim chances and you land around 65% chance of killing an additional good guy. And that is only assuming one protector and no winner of trivia. Add those and you get around 40% chance of getting a bad guy. I like those odds.

[Caddy]

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

Why would scar be in this game? He has 400 posts. The only way I could think he would be in this game is if he is a banned poster, which would mean Bulldogs is evil and should be lynched.

You should look up the other Scar. Who has 9000 posts.

[Rob S]

Originally Posted by Cutey Wooty

Dafuq Rob ?

I'm staying with my vote too.

You heard me. I demand blood before I take off. I must watch him die.

[Jensen]

Originally Posted by Rob S

I have 20 minutes now. Send him straight to hell where he belongs.

[jrdrylie]

Found him. Could be a safe claim.

[Wootylicous]

Rob is being weird now.

[Rob S]

Originally Posted by Cutey Wooty

Rob is being weird now.

I've had a lot of airport drinks and don't like illogical gameplay after I've been drinking.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Call me crazy but I don't mind having TH around. I see the argument that at best he just makes the game quicker but I do like that he is active and helpful. Like I said I would kill Brodeur because he is playing his role horrible and lazy but if not him I have been suspicious of Bulldogs all game. All he has done is demand protection and offered nothing else.

[Brodeur]

Oh yes, I'm playing so horrible and lazy that you suddenly seem suspicious of your brother now that I re-affirmed Jensen's idea. It was all your idea, remember. The great and unstoppable Gonzo.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Brodeur

Oh yes, I'm playing so horrible and lazy that you suddenly seem suspicious of your brother now that I re-affirmed Jensen's idea. It was all your idea, remember. The great and unstoppable Gonzo.

I have been calling Bulldogs out all game you fool. You have not helped the town at all. Not one bit.