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Old 12-10-2012, 02:53 AM    (permalink
jsagan77
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Default Why do people think Cam is having a sophomore slump?

He seems to be having a very good season overall, despite the losses. Just wondering what people expected him to do? I can't see how he could really top last season consistently so maybe my expectations weren't as high?
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:57 AM    (permalink
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I think it has to do with making plays at the right time to win games. Or not making bad plays at the worst times. Last season the offense wasn't really a problem in Carolina. This year, for a good amount of the season it has been. That isn't all on Newton, but after last year's events, people probably expected something either similar or better. He's played really well in the last three weeks apparently. I don't watch many Panthers games, so I can't be sure with information taken out of context.

From what I have seen, Carolina's biggest problem is as as a team. They just don't seem that well rounded. Maybe their coaching staff isn't the greatest in the world either. I would love to see Newton here in San Francisco I'll say that much. The guy is talented.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:06 AM    (permalink
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I think it's because he hasn't really taken a step forward. He's having more or less the same kind of season he had last year. He did have a very good rookie year, so it's not like matching that in his second season is bad. It's just that people, especially football/draft fans, like to see improvement.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:16 AM    (permalink
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He did really well last season. But this season he's being outshined by 3 rookies and Dalton. Not necessarily in the statistics department (Though all of those guys have pretty great stats) but more so in the wins department.

If the play offs happened today, Luck and Wilson are in and the Bengals and the Redskins are the 7th seed in their conference. Meanwhile Cam Newton is statistically already at a losing season and it may just get worse.

And it is technically a slump. Right now he has 3 games to get roughly 1,00 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns. He is ahead in interceptions though with only 10 this year to his 17 last year. Now this is all just box score statistics, but it's extremely relevant if you combine it with the fact that he's no where near the play offs, which means no one is watching his games.

It is unfortunate that he is saddled with such an awful team right now, but that's not really a valid excuse when the rest of the guys took over struggling teams as well. I'm not saying it's Newton's fault either -- but it's hard to use an excuse for 1 guy when 3-5 other guys are answering the call.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:18 AM    (permalink
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I don't like that offense they run in Carolina either. Always seems to rely on the option/big play. I really can't stand that. We did a lot of that against the Dolphins today with Kaepernick and it was so annoying.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:25 AM    (permalink
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He did really well last season. But this season he's being outshined by 3 rookies and Dalton. Not necessarily in the statistics department (Though all of those guys have pretty great stats) but more so in the wins department.

If the play offs happened today, Luck and Wilson are in and the Bengals and the Redskins are the 7th seed in their conference. Meanwhile Cam Newton is statistically already at a losing season and it may just get worse.

And it is technically a slump. Right now he has 3 games to get roughly 1,00 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns. He is ahead in interceptions though with only 10 this year to his 17 last year. Now this is all just box score statistics, but it's extremely relevant if you combine it with the fact that he's no where near the play offs, which means no one is watching his games.

It is unfortunate that he is saddled with such an awful team right now, but that's not really a valid excuse when the rest of the guys took over struggling teams as well. I'm not saying it's Newton's fault either -- but it's hard to use an excuse for 1 guy when 3-5 other guys are answering the call.
2010 stats............. RATING 84.5 COMP 60%...YARDS 4051 TD 21 INT 17 RYARDS 706 RTD 14
2011 projected stats RATING 88.0 COMP 58.2%YARDS 3963 TD 20 INT 12 RYARDS 788 RTD 9

With the exception of fewer interceptions and fewer rushing TDs he's having almost the same statistical season as last year.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:27 AM    (permalink
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:58 AM    (permalink
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2010 stats............. RATING 84.5 COMP 60%...YARDS 4051 TD 21 INT 17 RYARDS 706 RTD 14
2011 projected stats RATING 88.0 COMP 58.2%YARDS 3963 TD 20 INT 12 RYARDS 788 RTD 9

With the exception of fewer interceptions and fewer rushing TDs he's having almost the same statistical season as last year.
Which pretty much sums up why people are calling it a slump.

He hasn't gotten better and his team hasn't gotten better, which are basically the two main means of judgment for a QB.

To be fair he hasn't regressed either but a lack of improvement from a "raw" second year player is probably a fair enough reason for calling it a slump.

Basically he came into this season with a lot of areas that he should have been able to generate significant improvement from and really he hasn't done anything he didn't do last year.

Certainly doesn't help his cause to have two rookies come in and make his rookie season seem far more "average" than amazing as well!
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:07 AM    (permalink
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It's hard to call what Cam is going through as a slump when he had one of the alltime best seasons for a rookie QB last season and made the pro bowl.

Sure you'd like to see him throw more TDs and complete a higher percentage of his passes, but when you come in as a rookie playing at the level Newton did last season, matching those numbers in year 2 isn't a 'slump' or a regression.
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:36 AM    (permalink
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He was really playing poorly but he definitely has turned it around recently. In the first nine games he had eight touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He has eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four games. He was having a sophomore slump until recently. He only completed more than 60% of his passes three times in the Panthers first nine games, and had more interceptions than touchdowns with a 2-7 record in that span. He has played much better recently but that doesn't just excuse he poor performance in the first half of the season, when he was actually playing worse than he did as a rookie.

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Old 12-10-2012, 06:46 AM    (permalink
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The biggest question going forward from his sensational rookie year was how he will perform once the games start to really matter and once expectations for winning starts to rise.

The sophomore slump tag was always a bit of a cliche oversimplification - this transition into a high performer in important games is the true next step. 2012 obviously isn't the final say on that matter but he did nothing to show this is a step he is primed to take.
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Old 12-10-2012, 07:54 AM    (permalink
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He was really playing poorly but he definitely has turned it around recently. In the first nine games he had eight touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He has eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four games. He was having a sophomore slump until recently.
I was coming to post something similar to this. He's been on fire as of late.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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People make assumptions and then look for anything that confirms their belief. People expect QBs to slump in their second year, and therefore one or two bad games leads them to sweeping conclusions about a "sophomore slup".
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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To be fair, you picked a good time to make this thread supporting your point. He has definitely turned it around with a very good 4 games stretch statistically.

He was definitely struggling at points early in the year, and for the season has been about 1/2 good and 1/2 bad.

That said, a lot of teams and players play well later in the season when they have nothing to lose anymore. To be considered successful he has to win more games.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:49 AM    (permalink
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People make assumptions and then look for anything that confirms their belief. People expect QBs to slump in their second year, and therefore one or two bad games leads them to sweeping conclusions about a "sophomore slup".
I never thought Cam would go through a rough 2nd year, I actually thought he'd improve. That said, it wasn't just "a bad game or two" this year with Cam. The Panthers were 2-8 the 1st 10 games of the season. Not all Cam's fault of course, but he did have several games in which he struggled. He's accounted for 1071 total yards and 10 total tds with 0 turnovers the last 3 games. They are 2-1 in those games.

A lot of teams need very good to great QB play to win in the NFL today. Cam doesn't really have as much talent around him as other top QBs do. Smith is getting old. LaFell is an ok #2. Olsen is an above average TE. Their running game is poor, despite paying not 1 but 2 RBs big money. (of course, one could argue that it is basically the same team he had around him last year... so that shouldn't really be an excuse)

Like I said, right now he's on fire. I expect that to continue the rest of the year and into next season and beyond. He's a good QB, but he could definitely use some help.

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Old 12-10-2012, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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Which pretty much sums up why people are calling it a slump.

He hasn't gotten better and his team hasn't gotten better, which are basically the two main means of judgment for a QB.
How fair is that to Cam to expect him to improve his numbers across the board from one of the best rookie QB seasons ever? Throwing rookie season out, it was a marvelous season in general. Why should we expect him to not only match those totals which broke a ton of records, but improve?


Besides that, the Panthers are so bad they need him to play at an elite level the entire game to have a chance to win which is a ton of pressure on him to perform like that consistently.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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To be fair, you picked a good time to make this thread supporting your point. He has definitely turned it around with a very good 4 games stretch statistically.

He was definitely struggling at points early in the year, and for the season has been about 1/2 good and 1/2 bad.

That said, a lot of teams and players play well later in the season when they have nothing to lose anymore. To be considered successful he has to win more games.
Good post.
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:25 PM    (permalink
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Our offensive line and running game weren't **** last year.
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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To be fair, you picked a good time to make this thread supporting your point. He has definitely turned it around with a very good 4 games stretch statistically.
How was pointing out his slump earlier in the season any less convenient? Couldn't I argue that since the Giants game, he has 20 TDs (total) and 5 INTs? Of his bad games, 4/6 are top ten against the pass. The others being Tampa and the Giants. Not excuses, just pointing out that those defenses have made a lot of QBs look dumb.


you know the story of the read-option offense? It was taken out somewhere around mid-way, I think during the bye week. Other key change: Newton was given more ability to audible, starting with the Philly game. I don't know why he wasn't allowed to do it as much, Chud has a chub for control, I guess.

Anyone know where the Carolina rushing attack ranks without Cam's yards? Some of the runs are designed so you can't just subtract them out, but look at Williams' and Stewart's YPC average. Both are at their career lows. This run game is bottom of the league, yet he leads the league in yards per throw.


Newton is fine. I've watched the games and he looks better than he did last year despite having less support from the offensive line and running game. When I see Newton get reasonable time in the pocket, I'm not worried about his decision making.

Biggest improvement I've seen:

He'll miss a throw now and then but he's getting better and limiting the bad misses that become interceptions. To go along with that point, he's shortened his memory. Last year or earlier this year, he'd be hung about the missed throw. While he needs to hit those throws, lately he has been coming back and making the next play.

He needs some assistance. I think he'll take a huge step if they can revamp the offensive line and the run game. Adding a WR like Bowe and a combo TE would really be icing on the cake.
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Old 12-10-2012, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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Luck has a 55 completion percentage, 18 td, 18 int, and nearly 3800 yards. Newton is ahead 14 points in passer rating.

I think the criticism of Newton stems from expectation and people's shifting of their perceptions to fit those expectations, as Luck was supposed to be the second coming he has been given the benefit of the doubt, while a lot of people that thought Newton would bust and personally dislike him look for anything to confirm their predictions.

This is not to compare Newton and Luck, but this is a great example of expectation's role in perception.(Imo griffin is the best of the 3)

I think its time for the Panthers new gm to really put work into this team, fix the OL and receiving core a bit. Look at the effect that had on Freeman,who isnt close to newton in my book, but has some similar skills(vitals, arm strength).
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by billybeejr View Post
Luck has a 55 completion percentage, 18 td, 18 int, and nearly 3800 yards. Newton is ahead 14 points in passer rating.

I think the criticism of Newton stems from expectation and people's shifting of their perceptions to fit those expectations, as Luck was supposed to be the second coming he has been given the benefit of the doubt, while a lot of people that thought Newton would bust and personally dislike him look for anything to confirm their predictions.

This is not to compare Newton and Luck, but this is a great example of expectation's role in perception.(Imo griffin is the best of the 3)

I think its time for the Panthers new gm to really put work into this team, fix the OL and receiving core a bit. Look at the effect that had on Freeman,who isnt close to newton in my book, but has some similar skills(vitals, arm strength).
I simply don't think this is true. Both were expected to help turn franchises around. The Colts are headed to the play offs right now while the Panthers are playing in meaningless games until next season.

Their expectation were the exactly the same, and yet one delivered and one didn't.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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I simply don't think this is true. Both were expected to help turn franchises around. The Colts are headed to the play offs right now while the Panthers are playing in meaningless games until next season.

Their expectation were the exactly the same, and yet one delivered and one didn't.
This to me, signifies someone who doesn't actually watch any Panthers' games, and instead just looks at the W-L record. Our team is pretty bad, yet Cam Newton is one of the few bright spots. Anyone who actually watches the Panthers' games will see that Newton isn't the problem. Yet as the Panthers are a relatively small market team that's doing poorly, I doubt that people watch him or us regularly play.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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It's hard to call what Cam is going through as a slump when he had one of the alltime best seasons for a rookie QB last season and made the pro bowl.

Sure you'd like to see him throw more TDs and complete a higher percentage of his passes, but when you come in as a rookie playing at the level Newton did last season, matching those numbers in year 2 isn't a 'slump' or a regression.
Exactly what I was getting at...
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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He started off slow this year but he's playing at a pretty similar level as he did last year. I don't think anyone will say he had a sophomore slump when the year ends.
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Old 12-10-2012, 04:55 PM    (permalink
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How was pointing out his slump earlier in the season any less convenient? Couldn't I argue that since the Giants game, he has 20 TDs (total) and 5 INTs? Of his bad games, 4/6 are top ten against the pass. The others being Tampa and the Giants. Not excuses, just pointing out that those defenses have made a lot of QBs look dumb.
There was a thread earlier in the season where much of the conversation was whether his rookie year was a fluke (Actually, now that I'm thinking about it, it was the "Is Cam the next Vince Young?" thread), and what you're writing now was basically my response then: if you go through and look at things like a tougher schedule than last year and the fact that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are non-factors this year instead of the best 1-2 backfield in the league, you already have some pretty good ingredients for "regression." The conversation then, as it often does, becomes one where people are either arguing he's worse and citing his decreased stats, or arguing that those stats don't tell the whole story. For what it's worth, there's a chance that his passing numbers could be better this year than last year, and if that happens it's going to be because he had a strong second half of the season, which is not what regressing players do.

Also, he had 14 touchdowns his rookie year! Jerome Bettis never had 14 touchdowns! 14 rushing TDs is fantastic production from your leading rusher, much less your quarterback. He's pacing to finish around 4000 passing yards again with a 20ish-12 TD-INT ratio, and then around 800 rushing yards and 9 or 10 rushing TDs. The fact that a couple of those numbers are smaller than what you find on his rookie stat card does mean he's "regressing." Regressing is just not the right word. All it can really mean is that he's still playing like rookie Cam Newton and not moving closer to playing like Brady or Manning. I mean, if Calvin Johnson breaks the receiving yardage record this year and then "only" has 95 catches for 1400 yards and 12 TDs next year, does that mean he's "regressing?"
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