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Old 12-10-2012, 05:32 AM    (permalink
Abaddon
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1. Oakland Raiders
Oakland lands the top spot by being absolutely awful, losing their remaining games, and winning the strength of schedule tie breaker with the Jaguars...who were also pretty awful.

Conventional wisdom suggests that a rebuilding franchise with no "franchise QB" in place has to roll the dice on a QB here, regardless of the quality of the available QB crop. To me, this is ridiculous.

Oakland is missing their 2nd round pick this year due to the ill advised trade for Carson Palmer. GM Reggie McKenzie has stated that he loves draft picks, and I believe he will try to recoup that 2nd rounder by trading out of this spot if at all possible. As such, we start the draft off with a trade.

The Arizona Cardinals send the #8 overall pick, their 2nd round pick, and (insert other considerations not relevant to this mock here) to Oakland for the #1 overall pick.

1. Arizona Cardinals - Geno Smith/QB/WVU
The Cardinals' offense is an absolute disaster. They have a legitimate playoff caliber defense and one of the best pure pass catchers in the sport, but they are hindered by the worst QB situation in recent memory.

Why would they make this trade? They know that Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Philadelphia are all likely to be in the market for a QB, and there was just no way they could sit idly by and take whatever scraps were left. In Geno Smith, they get a rather raw prospect with significant upside. What Smith gets is a WR who can track his deep balls and give him an NFL sized version of what Stedman Bailey gave him at West Virginia.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Bjoern Werner/DE/FSU
Trendy pick, but makes a lot of sense. They desperately need a pass rush and someone who can excite the home crowd. A local product with Werner's combination of production and upside could do both.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Tyler Wilson/QB/Arkansas
It was a tossup between Wilson and Barkley here. Both entered the season with high expectations, and both now find themselves needing to address why they didn't meet those expectations. With a good offseason and interview, one of these two should end up as a pretty high draft pick. For now, we'll say it was Wilson.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Matt Barkley/QB/USC
I feel dirty, both for having Barkley go this high and for giving him to a team I don't hate. I tried to fit in a trade here, but I think Philly is stuck. Sucks to be them.

5. Carolina Panthers - Star Lotulelie/DT/Utah
Arguably the best player in the draft, and he addresses a primary need. Easy choice.

6. Detroit Lions - Damontre Moore/DE/Texas A&M
Where have you gone, Cliff Avril? If the coaching staff can ever get the best out of their mercurial DTs, adding Moore here would give them one of the top D-lines in the league.

7. Tennessee Titans - Sheldon Richardson/DT/Mizzou
Really good player on a really bad team. May not go quite this high, but he should go pretty high in Rd1.

8. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel/OT/Texas A&M
The Raiders were hoping a top D-lineman would fall this far, but it wasn't to be. Who did fall was someone in the mix to go #1 overall and a bookend tackle to pair with Jared Veldheer. Manti Te'o gets some consideration here, but a LB who doesn't chase QBs for a living really shouldn't be drafted this high. Jarvis Jones would be the clear pick if not for his spinal condition.

9. San Diego Chargers - Taylor Lewin/OT/Michigan
Poor Chargers. Almost had the draft's best tackle fall into your laps. No matter. Lewin should prove to be a more than adequate consolation prize.

10. Cleveland Browns - Dee Milliner/CB/Bama
The Browns are pretty stout at the LOS, but the back end could use an upgrade. Milliner should help.

11. Buffalo Bills - Manti Te'o
The Heisman runner-up will help solidify the middle of a potentially stout defense.

12. Miami Dolphins - Johnthan Banks/CB/MS St.
With no WR worth this pick, the Fins upgrade their defensive backfield.

13. New Orleans Saints - Ezekiel Ansah/DE/BYU
Really wanted to go with an offensive tackle here, but this defensive line really needs all the help in can get. Ansah is raw, but has tremendous upside.

14. New York Jets - Jarvis Jones/OLB/Georgia
Desperate for a pass rush, the Jets roll the dice on Jones' medical red flags.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jesse Williams/DT/Bama
Brian Price flopped. Williams is a powerhouse who can help Gerald McCoy reach his potential as an interior pass rusher.

16. St. Louis Rams - Jake Matthews/OT/Texas A&M
Big day for the Aggies, and for big guys in general. Matthews is a house and should help Sam Bradford stay in one piece long enough to prove his worth.

17. Cincinnati Bengals - C.J. Mosley/OLB/Bama
High, but the need is great.

18. Minnesota Vikings - Keenan Allen/WR/Cal
Probably another trendy pick, but it's damn near a must.

19. Dallas Cowboys - Chance Warmack/OG/Bama
Bama, Bama, Bama. The Marsha Brady of college football.

20. St. Louis Rams (From Skins) - Eric Reid/S/LSU
The Rams' defense has some really strong pieces in place, but safety is in dire need of an upgrade. I don't know that I'd personally take Reid in Rd1, but...

21. Pittsburgh Steelers - Johnathan Hankins/DT/tOSU
After whiffing badly on Alameda Ta'amu, the Steelers use a premium pick to secure Casey Hampton's replacement.

22. Seattle Seahawks - DeAndre Hopkins/WR/Clemson
Seattle tried almost every retread WR on the market with minimal results. Hopkins 2012 numbers are eye popping and he could quickly become Russell Wilson's top target.

23. New York Giants - John Jenkins/DT/Georgia
I really wanted to put a DE here just on principle. But, the interior DL needs some real help. Jenkins isn't the up-the-field penetrator they might prefer, but he's probably too good to pass up here. A man this size could really open things up for the rest of the D-linemen.

24. Chicago Bears - Eric Fisher/OT/C. Michigan
Cutler has been getting his bell rung behind bad offensive lines since he played his first game at Vanderbilt. Let's get the man some protection before he finally breaks down, eh?

25. Indianapolis Colts - Dion Jordan/OLB/Oregon
A rangy, athletic pass rusher to replace Dwight Freeney.

26. Green Bay Packers - Barrett Jones/C/Bama
Jeff Saturday has been a nice stopgap, but a long term solution is needed.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Tavon Austin/WR/WVU
A little bit of a curve ball. With Torrey Smith taking the top off defenses, Austin could be lethal underneath.

28. San Francisco 49ers - Matt Elam/S/Florida
Gholdson is a free agent not guaranteed to return. Whitner is upgradeable.

29. Denver Broncos - Xavier Rhodes/CB/FSU
It doesn't look like Tracy Porter will be back.

30. New England Patriots - David Amerson/CB/NC St
Will probably go much higher than this when the actual draft comes around.

31. Houston Texans - Terrance Williams/WR/Baylor
A long overdue WR addition.

32. Atlanta Falcons - Sam Montgomery/DE/LSU
Pass rush help for a defense with some real playmakers in the secondary.
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:56 AM    (permalink
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No for Philly. Foles looked really good in the last 2 weeks. He's doing it, too, with no defense, no OL, and yesterday for the first time no running game. Celek and Desean are also injured. He basically beat a wildcard team with 2nd stringers. The only starters that played were Maclin and Mathis. That's impressive. I'd take Star there.
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:06 AM    (permalink
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Eh, personally I think Amerson will go much lower when the draft comes around.

Montgomery would get some looks for the Pats as would guys like Jonathan Cooper and Kawann Short
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Old 12-10-2012, 07:40 AM    (permalink
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Good Bears pick
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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Good KC pick.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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Dion Jordan seems to be mocked to the Colts a lot. I hope it happens.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:40 AM    (permalink
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[u][b]

8. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel/OT/Texas A&M

lol.. best mock eva'
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:33 PM    (permalink
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lol.. best mock eva'
Who are you and why are you impersonating me?
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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1. Oakland Raiders
Oakland lands the top spot by being absolutely awful, losing their remaining games, and winning the strength of schedule tie breaker with the Jaguars...who were also pretty awful.

Conventional wisdom suggests that a rebuilding franchise with no "franchise QB" in place has to roll the dice on a QB here, regardless of the quality of the available QB crop. To me, this is ridiculous.

Oakland is missing their 2nd round pick this year due to the ill advised trade for Carson Palmer. GM Reggie McKenzie has stated that he loves draft picks, and I believe he will try to recoup that 2nd rounder by trading out of this spot if at all possible. As such, we start the draft off with a trade.

The Arizona Cardinals send the #8 overall pick, their 2nd round pick, and (insert other considerations not relevant to this mock here) to Oakland for the #1 overall pick.

1. Arizona Cardinals - Geno Smith/QB/WVU
The Cardinals' offense is an absolute disaster. They have a legitimate playoff caliber defense and one of the best pure pass catchers in the sport, but they are hindered by the worst QB situation in recent memory.

Why would they make this trade? They know that Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Philadelphia are all likely to be in the market for a QB, and there was just no way they could sit idly by and take whatever scraps were left. In Geno Smith, they get a rather raw prospect with significant upside. What Smith gets is a WR who can track his deep balls and give him an NFL sized version of what Stedman Bailey gave him at West Virginia.

8. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel/OT/Texas A&M
The Raiders were hoping a top D-lineman would fall this far, but it wasn't to be. Who did fall was someone in the mix to go #1 overall and a bookend tackle to pair with Jared Veldheer. Manti Te'o gets some consideration here, but a LB who doesn't chase QBs for a living really shouldn't be drafted this high. Jarvis Jones would be the clear pick if not for his spinal condition.
This is exactly the scenario I was thinking about when I posted the thread asking about the value of a top 2 pick in this year's draft. And I absolutely could see it playing out almost exactly like this. Raiders could very well trade down a significant amount from the top spot in order to gain more draft picks and the Cardinals should do everything they can to get from the bottom of the top 10 to get a top QB.

The pick of Joekel is unfortunate though. The Raiders definitely need a RT, but you really hate to use a top 10 pick on any offensive line position unless its for an elite LT. I wonder if McKenzie would go for a CB like Mlliner in that scenario.
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Old 12-10-2012, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Jones > Fisher
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Old 12-10-2012, 01:46 PM    (permalink
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Milliner paired with Haden? Nice.
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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I was going to respond to this earlier saying that Austin would be a waste for the Ravens with Cameron as the OC but then I read the news that he got fired. Now the pick looks a lot better and I could see it happening. Another true threat on the outside would probably be better but if the Ravens use a system that features more of the middle of the field/any type of short-intermediate passing game then Austin (Boldin would likely do a lot better as well) could do a lot for the offense.
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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S, CB, or DE would be better picks for the Bengals.
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Old 12-10-2012, 08:38 PM    (permalink
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I can see KC winning a meaningless game or two....
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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Solid Miami pick.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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No for Philly. Foles looked really good in the last 2 weeks. He's doing it, too, with no defense, no OL, and yesterday for the first time no running game. Celek and Desean are also injured. He basically beat a wildcard team with 2nd stringers. The only starters that played were Maclin and Mathis. That's impressive. I'd take Star there.
My feeling on giving Philly a QB in spite of Foles is this: McNabb, Kolb, Kafka, Vick, etc. Andy Reid has a talent for making meh QBs look pretty good. I suspect the new regime will recognize this and want to bring in "their guy."

For their sake, though, I hope they don't draft Barkley. At least not in Rd1.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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This is exactly the scenario I was thinking about when I posted the thread asking about the value of a top 2 pick in this year's draft. And I absolutely could see it playing out almost exactly like this. Raiders could very well trade down a significant amount from the top spot in order to gain more draft picks and the Cardinals should do everything they can to get from the bottom of the top 10 to get a top QB.

The pick of Joekel is unfortunate though. The Raiders definitely need a RT, but you really hate to use a top 10 pick on any offensive line position unless its for an elite LT. I wonder if McKenzie would go for a CB like Mlliner in that scenario.
I prefer to scheme around CBs rather than scheming to them. If we still had some top flight man corners, I'd feel differently. But, when rebuilding a secondary, I would prefer to give them a pass rush first, then an infusion of youth.

Joeckel, in this scenario, would be the LT, kicking Veldheer to the strong side. Not an indictment against Veldy at all. Just maximizing the available talent.

Ideally, we'd trade back again with all the top DLs gone (And having Joeckel available that low could certainly create some trade opportunities), and looking at guys like Jake Matthews (How would you like that Veldheer/Matthews tandem?), Lewin, maybe even Warmack. That's just me, though. I'm all but certain Reggie ain't taking a guard that high. Definitely not if he's determined to stick with a zone heavy scheme.

Maybe roll the dice on Ansah, Chase Thomas, or whatever raw but athletic pass rusher is getting the JPP/Aldon Smith comparisons come April.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:22 PM    (permalink
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Love the pick for sf!
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Old 12-12-2012, 11:52 AM    (permalink
Poz51
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[u][b]

11. Buffalo Bills - Manti Te'o
The Heisman runner-up will help solidify the middle of a potentially stout defense.
Great pick IMO for Buffalo, does not fit the Nix drafting philosophy, but makes perfect sense value wise and need wise. Bills fans will love it, thought ultimately hate it because of his inability to cover backs and tight ends one on one, even though most of them dont know it yet.
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Old 12-12-2012, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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I can dig it, but I can see the Bills passing to take another CB that will suck.
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Old 12-12-2012, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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Would rather have Moore than Werner.
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Old 12-12-2012, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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Can't see the Giants passing on Sam Montgomery. Tuck has had a terrible year, teams learned to double team JPP, Kiwi doesn't play DE enough an Osi is gone next year
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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Great pick IMO for Buffalo, does not fit the Nix drafting philosophy, but makes perfect sense value wise and need wise. Bills fans will love it, thought ultimately hate it because of his inability to cover backs and tight ends one on one, even though most of them dont know it yet.
Mind giving me a breakdown of how Nix drafts?
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:52 AM    (permalink
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Can't see the Giants passing on Sam Montgomery. Tuck has had a terrible year, teams learned to double team JPP, Kiwi doesn't play DE enough an Osi is gone next year
I seriously considered it. Seems like they'd finally move Kiwi to DE fulltime with Osi leaving, though.
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Old 12-13-2012, 11:41 AM    (permalink
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Mind giving me a breakdown of how Nix drafts?
Sure, I will try to be short and sweet...

The first round is always a player from the south east part of the country, Maryland to Texas, I think the one time he took a guy from Arizona (A. Cason I think when he was with the Chargers), and that was the only time he left the comfort of the SE in round one. Second round if I remember correctly usually follows the first round standard. In general the majority of his drafted (80% or so while in Buffalo) players fit this mold.
-In the 2012 draft, only their last two picks were outside this demographic.
-In the 2011 draft, every player fit this demographic.
-In the 2010 draft (his first in Buffalo), 6 or the 9 players fit.
-In his 3 years in Buffalo Nix's first 3 picks in each draft fit this criteria.
-In his 3 years in Buffalo Nix has had 27 picks, 5 have been from outside the SE area of the country, and 4 of those picks came in rounds 6 or 7, with Marcus Easley being picked in the 4th round, at the urging of Gailey I hear.
- I did a run down of his time in S.D. last year, which I will find if I get the time. But from what I remember....
-Looks for 3-4 year starters in college for QB's in the NFL
-The SE was again his favorite stomping ground, as he was the head of that region when he was the top assistant to Bulter and co. in S.D. He has very strong ties to that region.
-In his 8(?) years in S.D. where he had a huge influence on their drafts, 7 of his 8 first round picks fit the previously mentioned geography with him reaching out to Arizona once.
-It is almost a guarantee that he will draft a DB and/or T every year in general, he likes DB's in the first, and T's in the second or later.

Thats all I got for now... Hope it helps :)

Last edited by Poz51 : 12-13-2012 at 11:43 AM.
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