Quote:
Originally Posted by Cudders
I’m not just tossing that word around. Wes Welker is a great slot receiver. He’s one of the best in the business. Being great at something and being an all-time great are two different superlatives. I have never seen someone nominate Welker as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That’s ridiculous. But characterizing a critical option in two of the most prolific offenses of all-time as just “useful” isn’t much better.
|
I don't see him doing anything that separates himself from plenty of other slot receivers. I think Brandon Stokley was better, personally.
Tom Rathman also played a "critical option" in some of the most prolific offenses of all-time. Great? Hardly. Useful role player is more like it.
Quote:
|
Again, outside receivers own the premium. Given the choice, no one (in their right mind) would pick Wes Welker over Calvin Johnson. But guess what? The value of the slot receiver is rising in the draft, too. The reason? The game is gravitating toward personnel groupings. It’s a weapons game. One stud outside isn’t as transformative as it used to be. It’s about putting weapons all over the place, remaining multiple, and pushing the pace.
|
What the game is gravitating towards is offensive shootouts, where receivers all over the place are putting up inflated numbers.
Quote:
|
Slot receivers contribute in all of those areas. Defenses want to defend inside-out. There’s not a defensive coordinator that just concedes the middle of the field to an offense. That’s their prized ground. Therefore, a slot receiver that can manipulate the middle has high value. Drags and screens aren’t going to bust defenses of all sorts. Sight adjustments are a huge component.
|
I don't know where you got that idea. Monte Kiffen, on the Bucs' philosophy of defense (paraphrasing): "We're going to be as wide as the widest guy, as deep as the deepest guy, and everything wiggling around in the middle, we're going to hit."
A lot of teams give up the underneath stuff and play more of a "bend but don't break" kind of scheme. That's where the Patriots go to work.
Quote:
Pardon the bluntness, but that’s just not true.
People love to throw out the “product” label. But it’s a label of laziness. It’s a broad, convenient, generalized term that doesn’t address all aspects of football.
We’re dealing with differing degrees rather than absolutes. For example, calling Earth a planet is accurate. Calling Earth a terrestrial planet is more accurate.
It’s the same concept with “products” in the NFL.
Tom Brady is a scheme-diverse quarterback. He’s an all-time great. A first-ballot Hall of Famer. But that doesn’t change that, to a degree, he’s a “product” of a situation. He’s one of the greatest quick-strike, timing passers I’ve ever seen. The Patriots make a concerted effort to tailor their scheme to those specifics strengths. And for good reason. He’s surgical in that scheme. Now, separate him from his scheme and install a different one. With the same personnel, ask him to forget underneath stuff. Ask him to take five- and seven-step drops with slow-developing vertical routes. Ask him to drive the ball downfield at an abnormal rate. Is he still a top-tier quarterback? Sure. Are his numbers still as sparkling? Those interception and completion percentages numbers are about to fluctuate.
|
The difference is, Brady is a great quarterback. If he were doing nothing in the Patriots' scheme but throwing easy, underneath passes, you could call him a "product of a system" and say he hasn't really proven anything. But as we've seen over the years, he can throw the intermediate and deep routes quite well.
Wes Welker? He hasn't done anything but catch the easy, underneath stuff.
A "product of a system" isn't just a guy who has his numbers inflated by the scheme. It's a player who would not excel outside that system.
Brady would not put up the same numbers in the kind of offense you are suggesting, but he'd still be more successful than most.
Wes Welker, if you lined him up outside and asked him to work one-on-one with a corner? He would never last as a starter. He would go from "first team All Pro" to, "backup/special teams duty."
Quote:
|
Don’t let Peyton Manning make calls at the line. Just give him a run-it signal and the exact, non-negotiable call.
|
Numbers decline, still would be better than most.
Quote:
|
Don’t let Calvin Johnson run a route past the sticks.
|
If you did that, he'd still put up better numbers than Welker.
Quote:
|
Don’t let Rob Gronkowksi release on the same amount of passes.
|
I'm not a Gronkowski fan, either, but operating under the proposition that he is a great pass catching tight end...again, that's just a claim about what would happen to his numbers.
Quote:
|
Don’t let Geno Atkins break two-gap responsibilities.
|
If he can't play the run at the point that well, he's not a complete defensive tackle.
Putting Tim McDonald in center field and not letting him play in the box to fill the run would have been detrimental to him and he would've been out of football. The fact that he was poor in coverage was a knock on him.
Players who struggle in certain aspects of the game are criticized for not being complete players.
But for some reason, Wes Welker seems exempt from this as far as the media is concerned.
The other difference is - the guys you listed all truly excel in some area where most others don't.
I don't believe Welker truly excels at much of anything, and what he does do well is something that is easy to find. That's why he's overrated, and that's why he's a product of a system. I believe you could plug Julian Edelman into his role and get similar production. I believe you could do the same with Eddie Royal and Jordan Shipley. I believe you could exceed his production with Randall Cobb.
Quote:
|
It sounds ridiculous, but NFL coaches are paid to put their assets in the best possible position. That means evaluating a skill set and building the framework of a scheme around what that person excels at. The elite are still going to be successful. But their results will differ.
|
And some skills are pretty much a requirement for any receiver to even make it into the NFL. Those are the types of skills required in what the Patriots do on offense. If you have more ability than what is required, it will show through. If you're Randy Moss, they'll take more shots down the field than before...because Belichick is not a moron.
If you're Steve Smith, all of a sudden those short passes will be going for long gains.
If you're Larry Fitzgerald, there will probably be quite a few more jump balls thrown to different areas of the field...because Belichick is not a moron.
When you can't do anything special, you become a Wes Welker-type. A guy who can't get deep and who won't break anything for a long gain after the catch, but who will be open regularly underneath when it's all spread out and he's matched up with linebackers. A guy who can catch the screens and stay behind his blockers as long as possible and pick up positive yardage.
You get a guy who catches 100-something passes, but averages just 11 yards/catch and scores few touchdowns.
Quote:
|
How come Chad Johnson wasn’t able to do it then? After almost a decade of top-notch production, he just disappeared. He went from being a low-end number one/high-end number two to an afterthought that averaged a single catch per game.
|
First of all, Chad was clearly on the downside of his career when leaving Cincinnati. After his resurgence to the "low-end number one/high-end number two" status you mention in 2009, he proceeded to put up just 67-831-4 in 2010.
When he got to New England, he barely played. You can't produce if you're not on the field. The rumors going around were that he didn't know the playbook. He may have simply been in the wrong mind state when he got there and not even bothered to try to learn it. You never know with Chad...he's a weirdo.
Quote:
|
Because it is a core attribute. A lot goes into doing it at Welker’s level. The Patriots lean on choice routes much heavier than an overwhelming number of NFL teams. That means the volume of information that Welker must compartmentalize and digest during preparations and during the game is much higher than most. He needs to memorize a wealth of nomenclature. Formations, protections, shifts, splits, motions, alerts, snap counts, etc. Then he needs to start diagnosing the defense. The alignment of safeties, the depth of safeties, the depth of corners, the alignment of linebackers, the depth of linebackers, the technique of defensive linemen, etc. Once he has his pre-snap read, he pieces together the information. What to do in response to the coverage, what to run against that defense, what depth to run it at, etc.
|
Again, you seem to be suggesting he's some sort of "braniac" at the receiver position. I'm not buying it to begin with...and even if that were true, so what? Stephen Hawking could probably catch some of the passes Welker has from his wheelchair. Football is not and will never be a nerd's profession.
I'm quite certain there are plenty of receivers capable of learning these intricacies. I'm sure it
pales in comparison to what quarterbacks have to learn.
Quote:
|
And that’s just against blander defenses when coming out of a huddle. Against defenses that mix up pre- and post-snap looks, he has to react and better not get it wrong. In a no-huddle situation, he has to process all of that information in a contracted period of time with simplified nomenclature.
|
What he really has to do is recognize what the coverage is and try to run to where they ain't. He's not facing octuple coverage, and he doesn't get open on every single passing play. What he tries to do, when he's not catching a screen, is make the logical decision. If he's matched up with a linebacker, that's probably a good matchup. If he's going against zone, he has to figure out where the hole in the zone is, or head towards the zone of someone who is a good matchup. If there's a dropped coverage, he's trained to turn around and look for the ball. One of his catches against the 49ers came off a double blitz on his side of the field. When given a free release and space to operate, he knows to look for the ball.
Not that complicated.
You want to know the ways most teams try to get a receiver involved in the offense when defenses are covering him well?
Throw him a screen/hitch, put him in motion, and/or send him across the middle on a drag route. These are the tried, true, and effective ways to get around just about any defense in order to force the ball to a receiver.
And these are the very same ways Welker catches most of his passes.
Quote:
|
I was at the game and didn’t focus on Welker’s matchup from start-to-finish, but there were times he gained separation and the ball wasn’t thrown in his direction. Beside, it’s one game. I’ve seen Welker beat Revis. I’ve seen Stevie Johnson beat Revis. Does that make them equals? No, not even close. Pros are capable of beating pros. Tramon Williams held Calvin Johnson to five catches on a 10 or so YPC clip a couple weeks ago. Does that make Calvin more useful than dominant? No, not even close.
|
I sincerely doubt you've legitimately seen Welker beat Revis. What you saw, if you're thinking of one play in particular that I remember, was Revis letting Welker by thinking Eric Smith was going to pick him up over the top. Smith didn't, and Welker was wide open. It was a blown coverage.
Revis, of course, proceeded to walk him down in the open field, despite starting out a good 5-7 yards behind when Welker caught the ball.
Quote:
|
Edwards spent seven NFL seasons with five different teams. You believe that five different coaching staffs all missed on their evaluation of Edwards?
|
I believe 5 different coaching staffs (actually 4) had no interest in running the Patriots' scheme back then. I believe teams were hoping for Edwards's athletic ability to translate into him being a game breaker, and it didn't. What they were left with was just a guy with quickness who could run the easier, shorter patterns that so many other guys could run. And teams had seen a lot of those types come through the door and there was a logjam and they preferred to try to find someone who could do more than just the expected. He was seen as a useful veteran addition for a year or two after he was declared a bust in Pittsburgh.
Quote:
|
Quick, not explosive. Welker isn’t explosive. His straight-line speed leaves a lot to be desired. And I didn’t claim he was the quickest receiver in the NFL either. I said he’s quick. Not “somewhat quick”. Quick. No qualifiers. At the combine, he ran a 4.01 in the short shuttle. That’s more than respectable. And he runs the best jerk route in the NFL.
|
Welker wasn't invited to the combine. NFL Draft Scout has his pro day figures up, though.
He may have had a very good shuttle time, but his 3-cone drill time was lousy (7.09).
If we're only comparing him to other players who are under 6 feet and under 200 pounds, I don't think he's all that much quicker than average for that classification.
Quote:
|
In 2005, after Weis left for Notre Dame and McDaniels took over game-calling responsibilities, Branch was the “go-to” in the slot.
|
If he was playing the same role in the same scheme as Welker, why was the average distance in which he caught a pass from the line of scrimmage that season 9.7 yards? (
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5951/career : 12.8 AVG - 3.1 YAC avg)
Wes Welker's average distances in New England:
2007: 4.8
2008: 3.7
2009: 5.1
2010: 4.9
2011: 6.7
2012: 5.4
Might I suggest they actually
weren't quite in comparable situations?
Quote:
|
How is hauling in 120 catches not prolific at all? Coaches know what’s coming. Know that No. 83 is getting his targets. For as much bemoaning as there’s been about his YPC, it’s still higher than 11 YPC. Defenses don’t just surrender first downs. Moving the chains is an integral part of offensive football. Welker does that.
|
Because a catch, by itself, is utterly worthless. You get nothing for the catch. It's what the catch results in that matters.
It would be like calling a back who carried it 400 times for 1200 yards "prolific."
1100+ yard seasons, by themselves, would not have anyone clamoring for the Hall of Fame. Especially when they are accompanied by single digit touchdowns.
But do them on 100+ catches every year, and all of a sudden people take notice...because they're operating under the false belief that
reception total is a valuable statistic.
It's the exact opposite of the way it should be.
A receiver who gets 1100+ yard seasons, while not doing anything unheard of or worth declaring him a future HOFer for, is far more impressive when he does it on fewer receptions (and especially when they are accompanied by touchdowns).
You throw the ball to a receiver enough, especially with the right play design, and he's going to eventually rack up the yardage, no matter how slow and unexplosive he is.
As for first downs...teams don't want to surrender them, but when they are out-schemed, sometimes they have no choice. You can't tackle Welker if you're being blocked on the screen. Welker has always had low 1st down percentages for his receptions, too. He just gets so many freak'n passes that he's bound to rack up plenty of first downs, too.
Quote:
|
And using one of the most talented receivers of all-time to discredit Welker?
|
I'm illustrating what happens when an actual talent is inserted into a system where production itself is automatic. The great talent will add another dimension.
I fail to see what added dimension Welker provides. Your argument seems to simply be that other guys couldn't get open as much as him in his role. I disagree.