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View Poll Results: Who's your MVP entering Sunday week 12
P Manning 28 50.00%
A Rodgers 4 7.14%
T Brady 12 21.43%
R Griffin 1 1.79%
D Brees 3 5.36%
M Ryan 2 3.57%
A Peterson 4 7.14%
A Foster 0 0%
M Lynch 1 1.79%
Other: Who? 1 1.79%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-27-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
MaxV
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I honestly think it'll be Manning.

Not because I think that he is the best choice, but because I think the voters won't be able to resist the whole story of him coming back to top level.
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Old 12-27-2012, 10:56 AM    (permalink
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I honestly think it'll be Manning.

Not because I think that he is the best choice, but because I think the voters won't be able to resist the whole story of him coming back to top level.
I think the whole storylines behind some of the top guys is what is really getting to me at this point. At this point I think it will be between Manning and Peterson, although I do believe Rodgers is flying under the radar after a slow start. But the thing that will be talked about is the 2 guys coming back from injury like it makes a difference to this award.

I have stated what I think this award is for more times than I would like to count, but if injury is brought up in the mind's of people who vote for this award then they are just ******* idiots. It's a nice story but there is an award for being able to comeback from a major setback...it's called comeback player of the year.

The MVP should be based on value and play this year, not last year, not the fact that the guy was hurt
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Old 12-27-2012, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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I honestly think it'll be Manning.

Not because I think that he is the best choice, but because I think the voters won't be able to resist the whole story of him coming back to top level.
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Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
I think the whole storylines behind some of the top guys is what is really getting to me at this point. At this point I think it will be between Manning and Peterson, although I do believe Rodgers is flying under the radar after a slow start. But the thing that will be talked about is the 2 guys coming back from injury like it makes a difference to this award.

I have stated what I think this award is for more times than I would like to count, but if injury is brought up in the mind's of people who vote for this award then they are just ******* idiots. It's a nice story but there is an award for being able to comeback from a major setback...it's called comeback player of the year.

The MVP should be based on value and play this year, not last year, not the fact that the guy was hurt
I agree with both of these. Not that Manning hasnt been great, especially after the first quarter of the season or so when he got his sea legs back so to speak, but theyre going to vote for him overwhelmingly when its really not so clear cut.

I wouldnt have a problem with him winning it. Or Brady. Or even Rodgers. But to me this has to go to Adrian Peterson. not because hes coming back from major knee surgery. as was said, injury has nothing to do with MVP.

everyone says the qb is the most important/impactful position in football. and rightly so.

but that doesnt mean a qb is automatically the most valuable player in the league.

a team QB'ed by a bottom ten QB, no other weapons after harvin broke, and a mediocre defense at best is on the verge of making the playoffs. how? because AP is a freak. if you put an average back on this team, they have a top 5 pick. seriously. with AP they might get ten wins. TEN! with christian ponder floundering hard and trying to upend sanchez and gabbert as the most pathetic 'franchise' qb.

To me, its AP and then everybody else.

1) AP

2) peyton and brady
3) rodgers


i didnt include watt or aldon smith or any d guy because theyre never getting it so seems rather pointless. For this reason i usually dont care much for the MVP.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

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Old 12-27-2012, 11:35 AM    (permalink
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Yards aren't a huge indicator of being better, not when its as close as Brady/Manning. Brady has less than 200 yards more passing, with 47 more attempts. As such, he has more pass yards per game, a whopping 13 more a game.
Manning completes a higher percentage of his passes, has a higher YPA(Althoguh they are pretty much the same), and has 2 more TD passes with 3 more INT's.
While Manning has a better defense, Brady has better players on offense.



The Broncos were "handled" in their losses? The same team trying to find an identity and get in sync with new players? A couple stops away from possibly winning those games by the way. Like it has been stated, the Broncos were careless with the ball early on and seem to be much better of late in that regards. Twice they fumbled in the red zone against the Pats, 4 turnovers in the 1st quarter vs. the Falcons, costly defensive miscues vs. the Texans.
You are taking for granted the Broncos have pretty much slaughtered everybody except KC since they started their winning streak. The Pats almost lost to the Jaguars last week, its hard to maintain this high level of play for this long without a slip up. I just think given what Manning has done to the Broncos, he is more deserving of say Brady or Rodgers this year.
My main vote would go to Adrian Peterson if he does get the Vikings somehow to the playoffs.
I think we've all seen Rodgers, Brady, and Manning play better than they have this season which makes giving any of them MVP difficult over a guy like Peterson. I just honestly don't see any reason to give it to Manning over the other 2. I've seen most of the games he's played this season, and have never really thought to myself that he is executing on an MVP caliber level. He's a very good QB who entered a good situation with a good offensive line and 2 emerging targets. He's been consistent and has capitalized on the opportunities he's been presented. He usually takes his leads his team to 3-4 scoring drives per game, and his defense holds the other team to ~20. In a well rounded performance the Broncos have rolled over their over-matched opponents.

However, how is this any different from Rodgers or Brady? They both lead their offenses to the same kind of output every game, and in Brady's case his offense scores even more. Manning has a slight edge in QB rating over Brady, but in the end it's just a combination of statistical inputs. Brady's great game against San Fran 2 weeks ago was his lowest QB rating of the season because he had so many attempts and only 1 TD. Also, I generally believe the opposing defenses the Patriots and Packers faced were better than what the Broncos faced.

I think Manning's ahead because of the novelty of his situation. You can clearly see a better Broncos team with the switch from Tebow to him. However, throw any above average QB into that same situation and you're going to see a clear upgrade.
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Old 12-27-2012, 11:53 AM    (permalink
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Can Peterson win it if Vikings don't make the playoffs?
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Old 12-27-2012, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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Can Peterson win it if Vikings don't make the playoffs?
He wouldn't be my choice but other people disagree
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Old 12-27-2012, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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Can Peterson win it if Vikings don't make the playoffs?
Its extremely hard to argue that the most valuable player is on a tram looking in, but that record will play a huge role.
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Old 12-27-2012, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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Can Peterson win it if Vikings don't make the playoffs?
I'd still vote for JJ Watt.
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Old 12-27-2012, 01:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jth1331 View Post
Yards aren't a huge indicator of being better, not when its as close as Brady/Manning. Brady has less than 200 yards more passing, with 47 more attempts. As such, he has more pass yards per game, a whopping 13 more a game.
Manning completes a higher percentage of his passes, has a higher YPA(Althoguh they are pretty much the same), and has 2 more TD passes with 3 more INT's.
While Manning has a better defense, Brady has better players on offense.

I agree that yards are not a hugh indicator of who is better but it is one thing he is better at.47 is not that much more attempts and one of the reasons for that many is he has to keep up with the defense giving up so many points.

The Broncos were "handled" in their losses? The same team trying to find an identity and get in sync with new players? A couple stops away from possibly winning those games by the way. Like it has been stated, the Broncos were careless with the ball early on and seem to be much better of late in that regards. Twice they fumbled in the red zone against the Pats, 4 turnovers in the 1st quarter vs. the Falcons, costly defensive miscues vs. the Texans.
You are taking for granted the Broncos have pretty much slaughtered everybody except KC since they started their winning streak. The Pats almost lost to the Jaguars last week, its hard to maintain this high level of play for this long without a slip up. I just think given what Manning has done to the Broncos, he is more deserving of say Brady or Rodgers this year.
My main vote would go to Adrian Peterson if he does get the Vikings somehow to the playoffs.
What has he done that much better? Yeah he gave the Broncos a few more wins then last year he should get credit for that but lets not overate him and make this out like this team was 3-13 last year they were 8-8 last year it is not a huge turnaround.
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Old 12-27-2012, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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What has he done that much better? Yeah he gave the Broncos a few more wins then last year he should get credit for that but lets not overate him and make this out like this team was 3-13 last year they were 8-8 last year it is not a huge turnaround.
The Broncos already have 4 more victories than last year, which in a 16 game season is a big difference and yes they won the AFC West last year as well, but that speaks more about the division than it does about last years Broncos.

More importantly the team is being talked about as a Super Bowl contender and favorite in a lot of peoples minds, last year the Broncos had a fluke season and nobody considered them a real candidate. This year with Manning they have a legitimate chance to win the championship and that my friend is a huge turnaround from last year.
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Old 12-27-2012, 04:05 PM    (permalink
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You can't just look at the Broncos 8-8 last year and act like they were some legit team who won a playoff game. That is complete hindsight and false. Every single one of us were laughing as Tebow would laughably some how pull out a win in a game they had no business being in. They were barely winning off of miracle plays and they made another miracle play against a clearly wounded and beat up Steelers team in the playoffs. Every week the Broncos had to win on some fluke play at the end of the game.

It was fun as hell to watch but weren't even close to this current Broncos team. Manning makes them incredibly better. They went from a fluke fun sideshow to probably the leading AFC contender now. You can't just quantify those wins without proper context.
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Old 12-27-2012, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Please don't be so ignorant and say the Broncos of 2011 were anywhere near as good as the 2012 team. The Broncos of 2011 I remember reading were one of, if not the only team in NFL history to get into the playoffs with the worst point differential in history. The D got alot of credit due to Miller and Elvis having good seasons, but they were mediocre.

The 2012 squad in the 3 losses they were outscored by a MIND BLOWING, BLOWOUT total of 22 points... Taking into account that Manning had not played football in some 18 months a little rust was expected, with the amount of turnovers and bad timing along rust we had in the first 5 weeks, I dont have a doubt in my mind the outcome of those games would be very different, But that is speculation.


The broncos are 4 wins better then they were in 2011, a quarter of the NFL schedule.

Tebow's Broncos were lucky(I was cheering my but off, but not something i could say hey we are DOMINANT), Manning's broncos are dominant, efficient and have the stats to back it up as well as the performance.



Also if you are trying to point out Manning's performance in the 1st five weeks as a reason why he shouldnt win... Take a step away from ESPN and the media that is salvating over Peterson and look at his 1st five weeks..he had 420 yards and an amazing 2..TWO touchdowns.
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Old 12-27-2012, 04:49 PM    (permalink
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Please don't be so ignorant and say the Broncos of 2011 were anywhere near as good as the 2012 team. The Broncos of 2011 I remember reading were one of, if not the only team in NFL history to get into the playoffs with the worst point differential in history. The D got alot of credit due to Miller and Elvis having good seasons, but they were mediocre.

The 2012 squad in the 3 losses they were outscored by a MIND BLOWING, BLOWOUT total of 22 points... Taking into account that Manning had not played football in some 18 months a little rust was expected, with the amount of turnovers and bad timing along rust we had in the first 5 weeks, I dont have a doubt in my mind the outcome of those games would be very different, But that is speculation.


The broncos are 4 wins better then they were in 2011, a quarter of the NFL schedule.

Tebow's Broncos were lucky(I was cheering my but off, but not something i could say hey we are DOMINANT), Manning's broncos are dominant, efficient and have the stats to back it up as well as the performance.



Also if you are trying to point out Manning's performance in the 1st five weeks as a reason why he shouldnt win... Take a step away from ESPN and the media that is salvating over Peterson and look at his 1st five weeks..he had 420 yards and an amazing 2..TWO touchdowns.
I don't think it's a matter of them being better with him than Tim Tebow because I think everybody knows that. However, relatively speaking he's not giving the Broncos any more than Rodgers or Brady is giving their teams. Just because it's new doesn't make it any more or less valuable.
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Old 12-27-2012, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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I don't think it's a matter of them being better with him than Tim Tebow because I think everybody knows that. However, relatively speaking he's not giving the Broncos any more than Rodgers or Brady is giving their teams. Just because it's new doesn't make it any more or less valuable.

look at the improvement on the Offensive side of the ball...It's not "NEW" its night and day , and on par with the explosive offenses of the Colts...with all new coaches and players.

217 completions
429 attempts
2434 yards
51% completion
20 Td's


377 completions
555 attempts
68% completion
4218 yards
34 Td's



taking into account that the broncos has gained 1784 yards, 17% percent more completions, 14 Td's(with one more game to play) i would say Manning is giving his team alot more...
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Old 12-27-2012, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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A lot more than Tim Tebow, but not a lot more than Brady or Rodgers gives their team, which is what he said.
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:59 PM    (permalink
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I don't think it's a matter of them being better with him than Tim Tebow because I think everybody knows that. However, relatively speaking he's not giving the Broncos any more than Rodgers or Brady is giving their teams. Just because it's new doesn't make it any more or less valuable.
Exactly. It's the MVP, Most Valuable Player. Not the Most Improved. Or the best East Coast QB, best Manning, best team, etc.
Judging value is hard.

Right now, entering the final week, I would give it to Adrian Peterson hands-down.
To compare any other RB to his statline, you have to go back in time to historical greats.

Comparing Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Ryan, RG3, etc.... not a lot separates each of them.
But if a QB does get it, based on production and not East Coast bias or media hype, etc. then it has to be Rodgers, leading up to week 17. Week 17 can sway it though. But as of right now, it's clear:


RODGERS
Passer Rating: 106.2,
Passing: 35 TD, 8 Int, +27, 67.0%, 3,930 yards, 7.68 YPA, 46 sacks,
Rushing: 259 yards, 2 TDs, 20 FDs
Team Record: 11-4 (*12-3)

MANNING
Passer Rating: 103.7,
Passing: 34 TD, 11 Int, +23, 68.1%, 4,355 yards, 7.86 YPA, 21 sacks
Rushing: 6 yards, 0 TD, 2 FDs
Team Record: 12-3

BRADY
Passer Rating: 98.3,
Passing: 32 TD, 8 Int, +24, 63.1%, 4,543 yards, 7.56 YPA, 26 sacks
Rushing: 32 yards, 4 TDs, 11 FDs
Team Record: 12-3

RYAN
Passer Rating: 100.2,
Passing: 31 TD, 14 Int, +17, 69.0%, 4,481 yards, 7.85 YPA, 26 sacks
Rushing: 130 yards, 1 TD, 7 FDs
Team Record: 13-2

GRIFFIN
Passer Rating: 104.1,
Passing: 20 TD, 5 Int, +15, 66.4%, 3,100 yards, 8.27 YPA, 29 sacks,
Rushing: 752 yards, 6 TDs, 36 FDs
Team Record: 9-6

Now here's the part that bothers me from folks arguing for a different QB right now other than Rodgers. They say, yeah but Manning has taken his team up so much.
Well, it's the MVP, not the "Most Improved" award.

Also, if you are going to factor other things in besides actual production (passing and rushing), then you better factor in their schedule, their pass protection, their running game,their receivers, and their defense.
And that's a lot of subjective material.

But I would argue that the pass protection of Rodgers has been, is, by far the worst of the group, and I doubt anyone would dispute that who has watched them.

And his running game is the worst as well, which I believe partly coincides to the bad OL. Remember, they have 2 of their last 3 first round picks who were OT's on IR, played about 8 games total among them, so that's part of the reason for the bad OL.

Ryan has the best 1-2 WR combo in Pro Bowlers Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus the great Tony Gonzalezat TE.

Rodgers has the deepest group of WRs, without a doubt, but none of them would be taken ahead of either of those Falcons, or the Broncos Demayrious Thomas.
I don't think Brady's WRs are that good other than Wes Welker, although the dynamic duo TE's of the best in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are unmatched.

Griffin, IMO, has by far the worst set of receivers. But he has a good OL and running game. A big part of that running game, however, is himself.

Again, I would, without question, write in Adrian Peterson as my winner.

But if it goes to a QB again -because they consider the QB's the most valuable- then Rodgers deserves it most among this group. Right now.

A week 17 meltdown loss in Minnesota could blow it though, so stay tuned.
They should go by pure production, and from start to finish. You don't eliminate week 4 or 9 or 17. They all count. Interesting that it's Rodgers at Peterson. Pro Football Weekly things so:
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:59 AM    (permalink
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I had previously never posted, just lurked so I cannot post a link, but this was on yahoo sports on the 27th of Dec.

COMMENTARY | Aaron Rodgers won't go back-to-back as the league's Most Valuable Player. But he should.
I've written this before , but the argument for Rodgers has actually become more compelling since. In fact, it isn't really close when you compare Aaron Rodgers to the other players on the MVP shortlist.
Despite Minnesota's victory Sunday against the Texans, Adrian Peterson's chase to Eric Dickerson's rushing record is probably over. Green Bay will be playing for the 2 seed this weekend, which means the Vikes could fall out of the playoffs, not to mention lose to the Packers twice.
The last time an NFL MVP missed out on the postseason was 1973. Furthermore if the Packers win, they'll have swept the Vikings and it would be hard to put Peterson ahead of Rodgers in that case. It's hard to vote for an MVP when his team is barely over .500.
Calvin Johnson's record-breaking season was pretty remarkable, but the Lions were a dumpster fire all season and currently sit at 4-11. It's hard to be 'valuable' when your team has nearly three times as many losses as it does wins.
That leaves Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan on the list with Rodgers.
There's no easy way to reduce this list. All four quarterbacks play for teams leading their divisions. Green Bay, Denver and Atlanta are all in position to get byes in the playoffs. Among quarterbacks who have started every game, they're the top rated passers in the league.
So why Aaron Rodgers and not Brady or Ryan or Manning? The reasons are myriad.
Aaron Rodgers' value to the Packers can't be properly stated unless you look at the injuries to his teammates. Greg Jennings has missed most of the season and Jordy Nelson has also missed long stretches. Take the top two receivers off any other NFL and you're looking at mediocre offenses.
Tom Brady lost Rob Gronkowski but can lean on Aaron Hernandez and a solid running game. Aaron Rodgers didn't have such luxuries. Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning played on teams who were pictures of health for most of the season. Take Roddy White or Eric Decker off their respective teams and tell me you think Ryan and Manning are the same.
Green Bay's third best receiver leads the league in touchdown catches and its fourth best has a chance to break the single-season yardage mark. The reason is Aaron Rodgers.
Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries and the Packers are currently starting a rookie at right tackle with a first-time starter - as of last week - at center.
Every team has had injuries, but no team, at least among this group, has had them like the Packers. Green Bay put up 55 against a half-way decent Titans defense with two street free agent running backs, that patchwork offensive line and no Jordy Nelson.
Furthermore, despite the injuries at offensive line and receiver, Rodgers lead the Packers to 12* wins and is the highest rated passer in the league, despite being sacked 46 times. For comparison, Brady and Ryan have been sacked just 26 times each, and Manning just 21.
Schedule
One of the biggest differences between the season Rodgers has had versus his MVP competitors is the division in which each team plays. There's an old adage about having to play the teams on your schedule, but Green Bay plays in by far the toughest division of this group.
Both Chicago and Minnesota have chances to make the playoffs. Not one of these other quarterbacks have even one team in their respective divisions who have a chance.
The Bears and Vikings are 0-3 against Green Bay and a combined 18-9 against the rest of the NFL. Those 18 wins between just the Bears and Vikes are as many as the entire AFC East has outside of New England, six more than the entire rest of the AFC West outside of Denver, and just one fewer than the entire NFC South outside of Atlanta.
The fact that Green Bay won that division and is in position for a 2 seed speaks to Rodgers' value on this team.
We can talk about quality of wins and strength of schedule here, but I don't want to rehash too much of my last MVP column.
Atlanta has played the easiest schedule in the league, but that's not their fault entirely. Part of the reason is that when you win 13 games, you're adding losses to the teams you play and reducing your own strength of schedule.
A better way to compare these four may be to look at how they've fared against the same defenses. When you look at it that way, Rodgers once again proves why he deserves top billing for the MVP.
Manning vs. Rodgers
Rodgers and Manning have played the fewest common opponents with just Houston and New Orleans. Both teams beat the Saints and the Packers demolished the Texans behind Rodgers' six touchdown day, whereas Peyton and the Broncos were beaten soundly by the Texans.
As we look at the numbers from all of the quarterbacks, remember that yards per attempt and rating as a duo are the best indicators of a quarterback's efficiency and success rates.
In two games, Aaron Rodgers went 55/78 for 657 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. That's a 70.5% completion rate and a 130.2 passer rating with a 8.4 yard per attempt average. That is three or four games for the average quarterback.
Peyton Manning went 48/82 for 635 yards with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. That's just a 58.5% completion rate, 7.7 yards per attempt and a rating of 103.4.
Rodgers actually threw more touchdowns just against Houston than Manning did against both teams combined. Every number favors Rodgers including win totals. Given the strength of the NFC North vs. the AFC West, Rodgers has the edge there. For the season, Rodgers has more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and a higher passer rating. Remember too, this is while Rodgers is being sacked twice as often and playing without his two best receivers for much of the year.
Can you imagine what Manning's team would look like if he had to throw to Brandon Stokely and Andre Caldwell 20 times a game? Denver also has the superior defense and running game. Given all of that, it is hard to argue Peyton Manning has been a bigger part of his team's success this season than Rodgers has been for his team.
Ryan vs. Rodgers
The sample size for Rodgers vs. Ryan provides a better frame of reference. It's pretty intuitive: the bigger the sample size, the more accurate a picture it paints. Green Bay and Atlanta have played five games against common opponents, each going 4-1. Atlanta's lone loss was to New Orleans, whereas Green Bay's was to New York.
In five games, Roadgers went 92/147 for 1165 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That's 7.9 yards per attempt on a 62% completion rate and a 100.86 rating.
Ryan's numbers are pretty similar as he went 128/191 for 1417 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That is a 67% completion rate, a 7.4 yard per attempt average and a 94.9 rating.
These numbers include a 5 interception game Matt Ryan had against Arizona, one that Atlanta somehow won. If you take that Cardinals game out, the Ryan numbers are pretty staggering, but you can't. The game happened and it could have cost the Falcons dearly. It's tough to talk about how valuable a player is if he can turn the ball over five times but your team can still win.
This is why sample size, though, is important. Over time, these numbers regress to the mean and you're left with a better view of a player's performance across the course of a season. Notice in the important metrics, Rodgers has the advantage, albeit a slim one. Ryan attempted and completed more passes, plus did so at a higher rate, but those passes were shorter and fewer of them went for touchdowns as a ratio of all passes thrown.
Rodgers also has the advantage in gross statistics like touchdowns and interceptions, plus efficiency metrics like passer rating. Given how similar the statistics are, you have to take into account the circumstances. Atlanta's division was worse, its schedule was easier, and they had less adversity with injuries than Green Bay. Given that Rodgers and Ryan then essentially created the same outcomes, the more impressive job was done by Rodgers.
Brady vs. Rodgers
Something of a statistical oddity, by season's end the Packers and Patriots will have played half of their games against common opponents. Both teams played the NFC West and AFC South, leaving only the division and two other opponents on the schedule. These numbers, perhaps more than any of the others, are staggering. Both Green Bay and New England went 5-3 against these opponents, although Green Bay's record should have an asterisk for the Fail Mary game.
In 8 games, Aaron Rodgers went 193/292 for 2187 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. That's a remarkable 110.3 passer rating on 66.1% completions and a 7.49 yard per attempt average.
Tom Brady went 215/346 for 2588 yards to go with 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. That comes out to a 62.1% completion rate, a nearly identical 7.48 yard per attempt rate with a 94.9 rating.
Just to give you an idea of how good these numbers are for Rodgers, only 12 starting quarterbacks have 23 touchdowns through 15 games in the NFL. This is half a season for Rodgers. Brady's 19 touchdown passes is better than all but 20 starters.
That being said, Rodgers is head and shoulders above Brady in efficiency and gross production. Throwing four more touchdowns and four fewer interceptions in 50 fewer attempts is pretty remarkable. A chasm sits between Rodgers and Brady in passer rating and is about the same as the gap between Rodgers and Joe Flacco for the season. Yes, against common opponents, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady is Joe Flacco.
In a year where this is no MVP favorite, it makes sense to go with the guy who had a better season, head-to-head, than his competitors. Rodgers is also the only one to have another MVP candidate in his own division. If Rodgers beats the Vikings Sunday, he'll have beaten Adrian Peterson's team twice in a year where Peterson will probably rush for 2,000 yards.
Despite a massive injury deficit, an inferior offensive line, an influx of rookies on defense and a tougher division, Aaron Rodgers had a statistically superior season to to his peers at the most important position in the game. Only Drew Brees has thrown more touchdowns. No player who started every game threw fewer interceptions or has a better passer rating.
It wasn't quite the historic season of a year ago, which is why Rodgers hasn't been getting the same credit nationally for his candidacy. Green Bay hasn't had a running back rush for 100 yards since Bart Starr was under center it seems, yet the Packers keep winning because they have '12' under center and the other team doesn't.
Aaron Rodgers hasn't been all-time great this season, but he's been better than everyone else. That's all that matters and that's why he should be the MVP. His story isn't as good as Manning's or Peterson's, which is unfortunately why he won't be.
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Old 12-29-2012, 02:13 AM    (permalink
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Rodgers is second on the Packers in rushing. He's going to put this debate to rest in Minnesota on Sunday.
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Old 12-29-2012, 03:22 AM    (permalink
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AD could also put this to rest Sunday if he does to GB what he did a few weeks ago.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:05 AM    (permalink
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1. No he's not. If any defensive player is going to win it would be JJ Watt. Von Miller has no chance at MVP, therefore he's not an MVP candidate.

2. That's what I said. But it makes no difference to Manning if it's Von Miller and a bunch of average guys or 11 good players. The defense as a whole can help him slightly, but a single defensive player means nothing.
I never said he would win it I said he was a candidate. A single player means nothing try telling Houston that JJ Watt means nothing. As great as Manning has played his defense is top 5 so it is not like he has really carried the team or anything
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:14 AM    (permalink
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Rodgers is second on the Packers in rushing. He's going to put this debate to rest in Minnesota on Sunday.
The problem I have with Rodgers is kinda the same I have for Manning. He has beaten 1 good team all year the Texans. I am not sure you can make someone MVP who has not beaten a lot of good teams.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:15 AM    (permalink
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I had previously never posted, just lurked so I cannot post a link, but this was on yahoo sports on the 27th of Dec.

COMMENTARY | Aaron Rodgers won't go back-to-back as the league's Most Valuable Player. But he should.
I've written this before , but the argument for Rodgers has actually become more compelling since. In fact, it isn't really close when you compare Aaron Rodgers to the other players on the MVP shortlist.
Despite Minnesota's victory Sunday against the Texans, Adrian Peterson's chase to Eric Dickerson's rushing record is probably over. Green Bay will be playing for the 2 seed this weekend, which means the Vikes could fall out of the playoffs, not to mention lose to the Packers twice.
The last time an NFL MVP missed out on the postseason was 1973. Furthermore if the Packers win, they'll have swept the Vikings and it would be hard to put Peterson ahead of Rodgers in that case. It's hard to vote for an MVP when his team is barely over .500.
Calvin Johnson's record-breaking season was pretty remarkable, but the Lions were a dumpster fire all season and currently sit at 4-11. It's hard to be 'valuable' when your team has nearly three times as many losses as it does wins.
That leaves Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan on the list with Rodgers.
There's no easy way to reduce this list. All four quarterbacks play for teams leading their divisions. Green Bay, Denver and Atlanta are all in position to get byes in the playoffs. Among quarterbacks who have started every game, they're the top rated passers in the league.
So why Aaron Rodgers and not Brady or Ryan or Manning? The reasons are myriad.
Aaron Rodgers' value to the Packers can't be properly stated unless you look at the injuries to his teammates. Greg Jennings has missed most of the season and Jordy Nelson has also missed long stretches. Take the top two receivers off any other NFL and you're looking at mediocre offenses.
Tom Brady lost Rob Gronkowski but can lean on Aaron Hernandez and a solid running game. Aaron Rodgers didn't have such luxuries. Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning played on teams who were pictures of health for most of the season. Take Roddy White or Eric Decker off their respective teams and tell me you think Ryan and Manning are the same.
Green Bay's third best receiver leads the league in touchdown catches and its fourth best has a chance to break the single-season yardage mark. The reason is Aaron Rodgers.
Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries and the Packers are currently starting a rookie at right tackle with a first-time starter - as of last week - at center.
Every team has had injuries, but no team, at least among this group, has had them like the Packers. Green Bay put up 55 against a half-way decent Titans defense with two street free agent running backs, that patchwork offensive line and no Jordy Nelson.
Furthermore, despite the injuries at offensive line and receiver, Rodgers lead the Packers to 12* wins and is the highest rated passer in the league, despite being sacked 46 times. For comparison, Brady and Ryan have been sacked just 26 times each, and Manning just 21.
Schedule
One of the biggest differences between the season Rodgers has had versus his MVP competitors is the division in which each team plays. There's an old adage about having to play the teams on your schedule, but Green Bay plays in by far the toughest division of this group.
Both Chicago and Minnesota have chances to make the playoffs. Not one of these other quarterbacks have even one team in their respective divisions who have a chance.
The Bears and Vikings are 0-3 against Green Bay and a combined 18-9 against the rest of the NFL. Those 18 wins between just the Bears and Vikes are as many as the entire AFC East has outside of New England, six more than the entire rest of the AFC West outside of Denver, and just one fewer than the entire NFC South outside of Atlanta.
The fact that Green Bay won that division and is in position for a 2 seed speaks to Rodgers' value on this team.
We can talk about quality of wins and strength of schedule here, but I don't want to rehash too much of my last MVP column.
Atlanta has played the easiest schedule in the league, but that's not their fault entirely. Part of the reason is that when you win 13 games, you're adding losses to the teams you play and reducing your own strength of schedule.
A better way to compare these four may be to look at how they've fared against the same defenses. When you look at it that way, Rodgers once again proves why he deserves top billing for the MVP.
Manning vs. Rodgers
Rodgers and Manning have played the fewest common opponents with just Houston and New Orleans. Both teams beat the Saints and the Packers demolished the Texans behind Rodgers' six touchdown day, whereas Peyton and the Broncos were beaten soundly by the Texans.
As we look at the numbers from all of the quarterbacks, remember that yards per attempt and rating as a duo are the best indicators of a quarterback's efficiency and success rates.
In two games, Aaron Rodgers went 55/78 for 657 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. That's a 70.5% completion rate and a 130.2 passer rating with a 8.4 yard per attempt average. That is three or four games for the average quarterback.
Peyton Manning went 48/82 for 635 yards with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. That's just a 58.5% completion rate, 7.7 yards per attempt and a rating of 103.4.
Rodgers actually threw more touchdowns just against Houston than Manning did against both teams combined. Every number favors Rodgers including win totals. Given the strength of the NFC North vs. the AFC West, Rodgers has the edge there. For the season, Rodgers has more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and a higher passer rating. Remember too, this is while Rodgers is being sacked twice as often and playing without his two best receivers for much of the year.
Can you imagine what Manning's team would look like if he had to throw to Brandon Stokely and Andre Caldwell 20 times a game? Denver also has the superior defense and running game. Given all of that, it is hard to argue Peyton Manning has been a bigger part of his team's success this season than Rodgers has been for his team.
Ryan vs. Rodgers
The sample size for Rodgers vs. Ryan provides a better frame of reference. It's pretty intuitive: the bigger the sample size, the more accurate a picture it paints. Green Bay and Atlanta have played five games against common opponents, each going 4-1. Atlanta's lone loss was to New Orleans, whereas Green Bay's was to New York.
In five games, Roadgers went 92/147 for 1165 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That's 7.9 yards per attempt on a 62% completion rate and a 100.86 rating.
Ryan's numbers are pretty similar as he went 128/191 for 1417 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That is a 67% completion rate, a 7.4 yard per attempt average and a 94.9 rating.
These numbers include a 5 interception game Matt Ryan had against Arizona, one that Atlanta somehow won. If you take that Cardinals game out, the Ryan numbers are pretty staggering, but you can't. The game happened and it could have cost the Falcons dearly. It's tough to talk about how valuable a player is if he can turn the ball over five times but your team can still win.
This is why sample size, though, is important. Over time, these numbers regress to the mean and you're left with a better view of a player's performance across the course of a season. Notice in the important metrics, Rodgers has the advantage, albeit a slim one. Ryan attempted and completed more passes, plus did so at a higher rate, but those passes were shorter and fewer of them went for touchdowns as a ratio of all passes thrown.
Rodgers also has the advantage in gross statistics like touchdowns and interceptions, plus efficiency metrics like passer rating. Given how similar the statistics are, you have to take into account the circumstances. Atlanta's division was worse, its schedule was easier, and they had less adversity with injuries than Green Bay. Given that Rodgers and Ryan then essentially created the same outcomes, the more impressive job was done by Rodgers.
Brady vs. Rodgers
Something of a statistical oddity, by season's end the Packers and Patriots will have played half of their games against common opponents. Both teams played the NFC West and AFC South, leaving only the division and two other opponents on the schedule. These numbers, perhaps more than any of the others, are staggering. Both Green Bay and New England went 5-3 against these opponents, although Green Bay's record should have an asterisk for the Fail Mary game.
In 8 games, Aaron Rodgers went 193/292 for 2187 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. That's a remarkable 110.3 passer rating on 66.1% completions and a 7.49 yard per attempt average.
Tom Brady went 215/346 for 2588 yards to go with 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. That comes out to a 62.1% completion rate, a nearly identical 7.48 yard per attempt rate with a 94.9 rating.
Just to give you an idea of how good these numbers are for Rodgers, only 12 starting quarterbacks have 23 touchdowns through 15 games in the NFL. This is half a season for Rodgers. Brady's 19 touchdown passes is better than all but 20 starters.
That being said, Rodgers is head and shoulders above Brady in efficiency and gross production. Throwing four more touchdowns and four fewer interceptions in 50 fewer attempts is pretty remarkable. A chasm sits between Rodgers and Brady in passer rating and is about the same as the gap between Rodgers and Joe Flacco for the season. Yes, against common opponents, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady is Joe Flacco.
In a year where this is no MVP favorite, it makes sense to go with the guy who had a better season, head-to-head, than his competitors. Rodgers is also the only one to have another MVP candidate in his own division. If Rodgers beats the Vikings Sunday, he'll have beaten Adrian Peterson's team twice in a year where Peterson will probably rush for 2,000 yards.
Despite a massive injury deficit, an inferior offensive line, an influx of rookies on defense and a tougher division, Aaron Rodgers had a statistically superior season to to his peers at the most important position in the game. Only Drew Brees has thrown more touchdowns. No player who started every game threw fewer interceptions or has a better passer rating.
It wasn't quite the historic season of a year ago, which is why Rodgers hasn't been getting the same credit nationally for his candidacy. Green Bay hasn't had a running back rush for 100 yards since Bart Starr was under center it seems, yet the Packers keep winning because they have '12' under center and the other team doesn't.
Aaron Rodgers hasn't been all-time great this season, but he's been better than everyone else. That's all that matters and that's why he should be the MVP. His story isn't as good as Manning's or Peterson's, which is unfortunately why he won't be.
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:05 AM    (permalink
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AD could also put this to rest Sunday if he does to GB what he did a few weeks ago.
Rodgers touched the ball many more times than AD and, as usual, the team with the better QB won the game.
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by 49ers1984 View Post
The problem I have with Rodgers is kinda the same I have for Manning. He has beaten 1 good team all year the Texans. I am not sure you can make someone MVP who has not beaten a lot of good teams.
He beat the Vikings. Are the Vikings good? If not, are you suggesting the MVP go to a player on a bad team?
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Old 12-29-2012, 08:47 AM    (permalink
49ers1984
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
He beat the Vikings. Are the Vikings good? If not, are you suggesting the MVP go to a player on a bad team?
You mean the 9-6 Vikings who may not even make the playoffs? Looking back at MVP records are accounted for.
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