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Old 01-05-2013, 12:02 PM    (permalink
The Alex
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I thought this thread would be about trannies...
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:07 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Originally Posted by Bengalsrocket View Post
How are people still down on Dalton? he's not the most amazing QB ever, but he's doing everything you could hope from a player as young as him. I don't know if he can beat Manning or Brady this year (it will be a struggle just to beat Flacco / Schaub for this team) but he's well beyond the point that people would expect out of a 2nd year QB.

If he stops developing (and the offense stops developing) sure, he probably won't win a Superbowl. But I can definitely see the Bengals being competitive for the next few years, especially since all of our talent is extremely young.
That's the problem I have. Your team has so much potential talent that's untapped bc of his limitations. This offense should be much better than it is. You have great talent on offense.

So why is it not realizing it's potential? Bc of how defenses play Dalton. Pay attention to how he's defensed today, you'll see how teams dare him to make certain throws that he's not capable of making.

When you can dictate routes by playing certain coverages, you dramatically influence an offense's output.

I like Dalton, I think he's a very solid quarterback, but I don't see him elevating to the level he'll need to reach to become a SB quarterback.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:11 PM    (permalink
The Alex
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
For the record, my personal belief is that you do not necessarily need an elite qb to make the SB, but you do need a top 10 qb.
Please explain the following anomalies:

Rex Grossman
Jake Delhomme
Brad Johnson
Trent Dilfer
Kerry Collins
Chris Chandler
Neil O'Donnell
Stan Humphries
Jeff Hostetler
Doug Williams
Steve Grogan
David Woodley
Vince Ferragamo

I'm not going back any further, but the point is, you can reach the Super Bowl with a mediocre quarterback if you're loaded elsewhere.
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I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:15 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Originally Posted by The Alex View Post
Please explain the following anomalies:

Rex Grossman
Jake Delhomme
Brad Johnson
Trent Dilfer
Kerry Collins
Chris Chandler
Neil O'Donnell
Stan Humphries
Jeff Hostetler
Doug Williams
Steve Grogan
David Woodley
Vince Ferragamo

I'm not going back any further, but the point is, you can reach the Super Bowl with a mediocre quarterback if you're loaded elsewhere.
Again, I don't care about what happened before 2006, it was a different era of football then. The rule changes make those guys irrelevant for the conversation moving forward. It's a different game now. In the past yes you didn't need a top 10 quarterback, but now? You absolutely need one.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:18 PM    (permalink
The Alex
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Again, I don't care about what happened before 2006, it was a different era of football then. The rule changes make those guys irrelevant for the conversation moving forward. It's a different game now. In the past yes you didn't need a top 10 quarterback, but now? You absolutely need one.
Fair enough but what about Rex Grossman? That was in 2006.
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by hockey619 View Post
This may seem a bit premature with the season still going, but its an observation I feel warrants discussion.

Changes in league rules have lead to a large number of successful QB's, and a lot who are good early in their careers. As a matter of fact, most QB's who arent good to begin their careers (first two years) are just not good QB's and should be moved on from right away. As shown recently, guys who dont succeed early with the way the rules are just dont seem to succeed at all. All of these good or better QBs have made it more common to have a 'Franchise QB.'

But are there really more franchise guys? Or guys who are good masquerading as franchise saviors? This leads me to this idea...



Trap QB- a QB whos talent (or circumstance with surrounding talent plus current league rules) is above average/good and allows the team to win games, but simultaneously this QB is also not good enough to win the super bowl. Team believes finding a superior player is unlikely with the draft spot the QB gets them (high teens and 20's) and dont want to invest in moving up for a top talent guy and starting over because they believe they are another piece or two away from winning the big one/believe finding a superior replacement to be unlikely/ etc reasons.
Basically, a trap QB is not good enough to beat an elite guy (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers) without an all star cast but not bad enough to clearly warrant replacing yet appears to have reached his peak level of success. Thus, his team is "trapped," or stuck with said player and level of success/near success.

current trap QBs:
Romo - everybody agrees, he just isn't a solid leader who rises to the occassion.
Flacco - just an average QB who cannot carry a team by himself.
Cutler - true franchise QB, hindered by an extremely weak OL.
Schaub - Just an average QB who depends on running game to be effective.
Vick - Once was a true franchise QB but has lost a step or 2 and can no longer escape a pass rush all by himself. Without escapability, just an average QB.
Rivers - Likely a true franchise QB who was hindered by one of the worst HC's in the NFL.


Guys who might be but its too early to tell for sure
Stafford - True franchise QB who is hindered by poor coaching.
Newton - ???, true franchise QB all the way.
Ryan - Just a notch below a true franchise QB, his arm isn't as strong as most.

These guys might be trap qbs or might just not be very good at all
Freeman - Average QB so far who could go in either direction.
Bradford - has a shot to be a franchise QB as his team gets stronger.
Fitzpatrick - Career backup who is the starter out of necessity.



What say you DC? do you agree with the idea of trap Qbs (franchise qb posers, whatever you want to call them)? Do you agree/disagree with the names?
You are being way too tough on some but are right on about others.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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Fair enough but what about Rex Grossman? That was in 2006.
Until I see more Rex Grossmans in the SB moving forward, I'm chalking that up as a statistical outlier.

I could be wrong, we could see a Schaub vs Ponder SB for all we know. All I'm saying is, I wouldn't bet on it.

I think the chances of winning that way are much slimmer. So if I'm building a team, the first thing I'm evaluating is qb, and where that position is relative to the rest of the league's talent at that position regardless of the talent around him, and if he's capable of ever developing into a top 10 qb. If the answer is no, I'm cleaning up the qb position before I do anything else, bc to me it starts and ends there. Regardless of how much talent you surround your guy with, if you don't have that top 10 guy at qb, I just don't see a realistic way of competing for the SB. You can be a tease, but never a real SB contender.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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Cutler seems more like Jeff George to me every game.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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I think next year is a big year for Cutler. He'll probably get some help offensively, and young talent will develop as well.
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Old 01-05-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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That's the problem I have. Your team has so much potential talent that's untapped bc of his limitations. This offense should be much better than it is. You have great talent on offense.

So why is it not realizing it's potential? Bc of how defenses play Dalton. Pay attention to how he's defensed today, you'll see how teams dare him to make certain throws that he's not capable of making.

When you can dictate routes by playing certain coverages, you dramatically influence an offense's output.

I like Dalton, I think he's a very solid quarterback, but I don't see him elevating to the level he'll need to reach to become a SB quarterback.
It's "not realizing it's potential" because everyone is still young. This team isn't half as talented as you might be thinking. The Bengals receivers outside of AJ Green (who is only in his 2nd year btw. And his first true training camp since we had a lock out last year) are all rookies or journeyman type players. Gresham is a talented TE, but he makes as many mistakes as he does good plays. At this point in time, he has not been worth the 1st round pick we spent on him (especially considering Hernandez and Gronkowski came later in the same exact draft).

And I'm sorry, but there is no more "potential" to develope out of BJGE. He's exactly who he will always be. A somewhat consistent runner with very little explosion and averages less than 4 yards per a carry.

The majority of the Bengals talent is all stacked in rotational players on the defensive line. Our offense isn't that great. But it could be, if Sanu and Marvin Jones become something more than role players and if we manage to find an upgrade to BJGE.

I'm not even sure I buy your overall arguement. We have 3 rookie QB's with Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder in the play offs this year. 8 / 12 teams don't have an elite QB. I would agree that they're at a major disadvantage right out the gate because of that, but all of their teams showed an ability to win games, which is all you need to do in the play offs (or ever, realistically).

The only way your argument can even be true is if the 4 elite QB's make it to the final. If any of the 8 "trap QBs" manage to beat an elite QB, then it stands to reason that they are not a "trap QB".

It sounds to me like you're just defining the non-elite QB's with a new label. Which is fine, you're not casting a bold argument by saying that non-elite QB's have a worse shot in the play offs though. It's not some crazy science to deduce that the worse your players are, the worse you are as a team. That was proven from day 1 of competitive sports.
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Old 01-05-2013, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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It's "not realizing it's potential" because everyone is still young. This team isn't half as talented as you might be thinking. The Bengals receivers outside of AJ Green (who is only in his 2nd year btw. And his first true training camp since we had a lock out last year) are all rookies or journeyman type players. Gresham is a talented TE, but he makes as many mistakes as he does good plays. At this point in time, he has not been worth the 1st round pick we spent on him (especially considering Hernandez and Gronkowski came later in the same exact draft).

And I'm sorry, but there is no more "potential" to develope out of BJGE. He's exactly who he will always be. A somewhat consistent runner with very little explosion and averages less than 4 yards per a carry.

The majority of the Bengals talent is all stacked in rotational players on the defensive line. Our offense isn't that great. But it could be, if Sanu and Marvin Jones become something more than role players and if we manage to find an upgrade to BJGE.

I'm not even sure I buy your overall arguement. We have 3 rookie QB's with Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder in the play offs this year. 8 / 12 teams don't have an elite QB. I would agree that they're at a major disadvantage right out the gate because of that, but all of their teams showed an ability to win games, which is all you need to do in the play offs (or ever, realistically).

The only way your argument can even be true is if the 4 elite QB's make it to the final. If any of the 8 "trap QBs" manage to beat an elite QB, then it stands to reason that they are not a "trap QB".

It sounds to me like you're just defining the non-elite QB's with a new label. Which is fine, you're not casting a bold argument by saying that non-elite QB's have a worse shot in the play offs though. It's not some crazy science to deduce that the worse your players are, the worse you are as a team. That was proven from day 1 of competitive sports.
I'm going off of recent trends. You can compete without a top 10 qb, but I firmly believe that to be a SB caliber team, you need one.

Your point about rookie quarterbacks only helps prove my point. All 3 of those teams did not have quarterbacks, and once they went out and got em, they reached the playoffs. Now while none of these guys are top 10 players, they all can easily become top 10 moving forward, and that's the key. They're on the right path moving forward, but they won't go to the SB with rookie qbs, its just not gonna happen.

As for Dalton, he leaves a lot of plays on the field man. He's good for 1 missed deep bomb to Green a game, that's 7 points. He's gonna struggle vs Cover 2 coverage his whole career. I like Andy, he reminds me of Chad Pennington before the shoulder injuries, and that's very good, but is it SB caliber? I just don't see it.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong, bc I like the Bengals, but I just don't see it.
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Old 01-05-2013, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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I'm going off of recent trends. You can compete without a top 10 qb, but I firmly believe that to be a SB caliber team, you need one.

Your point about rookie quarterbacks only helps prove my point. All 3 of those teams did not have quarterbacks, and once they went out and got em, they reached the playoffs. Now while none of these guys are top 10 players, they all can easily become top 10 moving forward, and that's the key. They're on the right path moving forward, but they won't go to the SB with rookie qbs, its just not gonna happen.

As for Dalton, he leaves a lot of plays on the field man. He's good for 1 missed deep bomb to Green a game, that's 7 points. He's gonna struggle vs Cover 2 coverage his whole career. I like Andy, he reminds me of Chad Pennington before the shoulder injuries, and that's very good, but is it SB caliber? I just don't see it.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong, bc I like the Bengals, but I just don't see it.
My point with the rookie QB's is that I think they got out played this season by a few guys that aren't in the play offs. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Drew Brees all had good season and have won Superbowls since 2006. I don't know which of those 3, if any, would rank into the elite status that we've been using so far, but none of them can be "trap QBs" since they each have at least 1 ring since 2006. The "best" QB doesn't always win (in this case, didn't even make the play offs).

If these rookies can get better, why can't Dalton? After improving upon his rookie season with another good season, why can't he continue to develop? Is it going to impossible for him to get better at throwing deep balls? Has his footwork reached a point where he physically cannot get better at it?

Why is there is a limit for Dalton's growth? I get that he'll never be quite as fast RG3 or Wilson, but speed isn't necessary. Brady and Brees didn't necessarily have the strongest arm ever when they came out either. They might have started off better than Dalton, but they also improved over time. Why can't Dalton improve?
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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He can improve, but my main problems with him are physical, not mental or mechanical. I don't see how he can overcome his arm.
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Old 01-05-2013, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Again, I don't care about what happened before 2006, it was a different era of football then. The rule changes make those guys irrelevant for the conversation moving forward. It's a different game now. In the past yes you didn't need a top 10 quarterback, but now? You absolutely need one.
This could be a case of causation =/= correlation. You would think the rule changes would make it easier for a middling QB to reach a Super Bowl. I believe it has more to do with the salary cap. Since its rare to find really deep, stacked teams anymore, the teams with the best QB's tend to win. It's still possible for an average QB to win it, but he needs to be on a great team. In all honesty, the last handful of world champions haven't been that historically great. We'll see if the 49ers can break through this year. They have the most complete roster.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:07 AM    (permalink
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The worst thing you can be in sports is average. If you are bad, there is hope you can get better. If you are good, there is hope you can win it all. If you're average? You're stuck.

Joe Flacco's rope is getting mighty short in my eyes. Unless he takes a huge step forward this playoffs I think it's time to cut it.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:16 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
The worst thing you can be in sports is average. If you are bad, there is hope you can get better. If you are good, there is hope you can win it all. If you're average? You're stuck.

Joe Flacco's rope is getting mighty short in my eyes. Unless he takes a huge step forward this playoffs I think it's time to cut it.
Who else are the Ravens going to get to replace Flacco? A rookie that might be worse? Same thing with the Cowboys and Tony Romo? Who is going to be the replacement? Joe Flaccos' and Tony Romos' don't even hit free agency. Unless you have a sure-fire replacement in place, then it's not worth the risk getting rid of someone that is a decent quarterback. Unless Baltimore doesn't mind going back to the days of Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, or Chris Redman with an all-world defense carrying the load...of course that all-world defense isn't around anymore.
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Old 01-06-2013, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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Of course Dalton had to play embarrassingly bad last night after I defended him :P

I still love my trap QB :(((
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Old 01-06-2013, 09:46 AM    (permalink
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Until I see more Rex Grossmans in the SB moving forward, I'm chalking that up as a statistical outlier.

I could be wrong, we could see a Schaub vs Ponder SB for all we know. All I'm saying is, I wouldn't bet on it.

I think the chances of winning that way are much slimmer. So if I'm building a team, the first thing I'm evaluating is qb, and where that position is relative to the rest of the league's talent at that position regardless of the talent around him, and if he's capable of ever developing into a top 10 qb. If the answer is no, I'm cleaning up the qb position before I do anything else, bc to me it starts and ends there. Regardless of how much talent you surround your guy with, if you don't have that top 10 guy at qb, I just don't see a realistic way of competing for the SB. You can be a tease, but never a real SB contender.
How would you react to my charge that it is a self fulfilling prophesy by which I mean if you take away the Super Bowls are all the QBs that have won a Super Bowl since 2007 still considered top 10 QBs
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Old 01-06-2013, 09:52 AM    (permalink
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Flacco trapped the Ravens last year by forcing Cundiff to miss a kick and Lee Evans to drop a TD pass. Stupid Flacco.
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Old 01-06-2013, 11:20 AM    (permalink
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Putting too much hype into winning one game is a fools errand since so much goes into even being able to play in the big game. I think you have to have a good QB and solid team around him to even have a chance, then it's about getting hott at the right time. Of course there are guys like Brady and Manning who seem to will their team to the next level on a consistent basis but even they need some luck to make it all the way and win the big game. It's not like every good QB is going to win a SB, but if they give you a shot, replacing them in hopes of getting a top 3 guy is pretty dumb because of the rarity that one comes along.

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Old 01-06-2013, 11:57 AM    (permalink
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How are people still down on Dalton? he's not the most amazing QB ever, but he's doing everything you could hope from a player as young as him. I don't know if he can beat Manning or Brady this year (it will be a struggle just to beat Flacco / Schaub for this team) but he's well beyond the point that people would expect out of a 2nd year QB.

If he stops developing (and the offense stops developing) sure, he probably won't win a Superbowl. But I can definitely see the Bengals being competitive for the next few years, especially since all of our talent is extremely young.
That’s why I didn’t include Dalton, Im not quite sure what to think of him yet. He did get better from last year, but he didn’t really explode onto the scene either. I want to see another year or two of his and see how he progresses (or doesnt).

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How is Matt Ryan in the OP at all?
Matt Ryan has peaked imo. What you see is what you get with him. I think hes very good, probably capable of winning a super bowl. But then again, his team is pretty loaded yet he seems to dominate no one the way a great qb with a loaded team should. Which is why im not quite sure what to do with him, you can see hes good but I feel like there is something missing, like he hasn’t had his moment yet where youre watching and like ‘oh **** here comes ryan to take over the game.’

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Fair enough but what about Rex Grossman? That was in 2006.
Look at their sched, they practically fell into that game. The bears had a great D and all time great kick return season from hester that year. The saints also had 4 turnovers in the NFC championship game which helped. They were an anomaly, like BBD said, I wouldn’t bank on a team of that build going off like that very often (bad qb, good d, great great ST).

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I'm not even sure I buy your overall arguement. We have 3 rookie QB's with Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder in the play offs this year. 8 / 12 teams don't have an elite QB. I would agree that they're at a major disadvantage right out the gate because of that, but all of their teams showed an ability to win games, which is all you need to do in the play offs (or ever, realistically).

The only way your argument can even be true is if the 4 elite QB's make it to the final. If any of the 8 "trap QBs" manage to beat an elite QB, then it stands to reason that they are not a "trap QB".
Ok. First part: They’ve trapped you. They’ve shown they can help win games, so you believe they give you a chance. But in the end, when they hit the playoffs and every team is good and it’s the QBs that separate them and cover their deficiencies (as BBD said) I definitely don’t buy Schaub and Flacco to get the job done.

As for the second part, it doesn’t have to just be 4 elite QBs, seeing as we don’t know what we have in a few of them. But in order to win the SB, a non great QB is going to have to beat at least 2, maybe 3 great ones. He might be able to get by one with some help from his team. But in the end, the odds are against him and hes not going to beat them all and win it all. But then said team will be saying ‘he beat QBX in the playoffs, he won us a game there hes good keep him!’ so they’ll just keep on rolling with this guy who good enough to get them close but will never be good enough to get them over the top.

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It sounds to me like you're just defining the non-elite QB's with a new label. Which is fine, you're not casting a bold argument by saying that non-elite QB's have a worse shot in the play offs though. It's not some crazy science to deduce that the worse your players are, the worse you are as a team. That was proven from day 1 of competitive sports.
That’s not what im saying at all. Like, at all.
Im saying the new rules are inflating players numbers, so that teams are hooked thinking they have this legit top tier guy. But in reality hes not a guy who can get you a ring. At the same time, his numbers are hard to look past because its very easy to find players that are worse than him, so there is the fear of starting over and regressing if they were to move on. Its simply safer to hope he takes that next step or puts it together for a big playoff run. Im saying theyre wasting their time as these guys tease them along. More on this at the end, spawned a thought…

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My point with the rookie QB's is that I think they got out played this season by a few guys that aren't in the play offs. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Drew Brees all had good season and have won Superbowls since 2006. I don't know which of those 3, if any, would rank into the elite status that we've been using so far, but none of them can be "trap QBs" since they each have at least 1 ring since 2006. The "best" QB doesn't always win (in this case, didn't even make the play offs).
Big ben missed a few games and that hurt his team. Brees started too slow and couldn’t recover and manning stumbled down the stretch. Just because theyre good QBs doesn’t mean theyre immune to errors.





Maybe a better way to put this is that there is currently a QB performance bubble in the nfl. Every QBs numbers are going up, up, up to levels that across the board are unprecedented. So every team thinks they’ve got this great guy…only they don’t, its just his numbers LOOK way better than the historically accepted average. I think teams are facin a dilemma: what if I let my trap QB go and someone else IS able to make something of him, or the guy I end up with next year is markedly worse? It could cost a coach his job and make him look very bad too. Simply too much risk with letting him go and thus they are stuck with the guy.

I don’t know how this bubble bursts, but Im interested in seeing whether this theory holds up. im pretty convinced it will save the occasional exception that exists with every rule/theory. The rule changes have forced unnatural evolution on the game, and its effects will be felt for a while before its totally clear how much things have changed.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Who else are the Ravens going to get to replace Flacco? A rookie that might be worse? Same thing with the Cowboys and Tony Romo? Who is going to be the replacement? Joe Flaccos' and Tony Romos' don't even hit free agency. Unless you have a sure-fire replacement in place, then it's not worth the risk getting rid of someone that is a decent quarterback. Unless Baltimore doesn't mind going back to the days of Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, or Chris Redman with an all-world defense carrying the load...of course that all-world defense isn't around anymore.
If you want to win a SB, you take the chance and dump/trade them and start drafting QB's till you find a true franchise QB. Staying put is mediocrity as far as these 2 QB's are concerned. The Cowboys will be 8-8 for ever and who knows what Baltimore will be after Ray and Reed retire.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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We're also seeing a lot of quality QB play across the board, which is why the guys who are good, just not good enough to surpass the great QBs who are out there.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:55 PM    (permalink
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How would you react to my charge that it is a self fulfilling prophesy by which I mean if you take away the Super Bowls are all the QBs that have won a Super Bowl since 2007 still considered top 10 QBs
I wouldn't react to it at all, because you can't remove accomplishments to make a point.

What if we remove all his touchdown passes, or what if we remove all his talent at WR, etc

You can't play the what if game. They did it. They accomplished it. It's part of the package.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:58 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't react to it at all, because you can't remove accomplishments to make a point.

What if we remove all his touchdown passes, or what if we remove all his talent at WR, etc

You can't play the what if game. They did it. They accomplished it. It's part of the package.
But at that point the mere fact they have won the super bowl makes some of them elite QBs. So it is a loop he's an elite QB because he won Super Bowls and he won Super Bowls because he is elite.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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