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Old 01-07-2013, 06:35 PM    (permalink
brasho
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It still does matter, although the financial gap is not as wide as it used to be.

E.g. Barkley was (at minimum) the consensus #3 QB last year. Assuming he was picked in the same spot Tannehill was (8th overall), he would have recieved a contract of 4 years $12.6 million.

If, however, he slips this year to the 2nd round, he will receive a contract of 4 years, approx $3 million.

This is $10 million dollars that he will never be able to recoup.
But staying and going 7-6 for a USC team that was expected to compete for the national title.... PRICELESS!
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Old 01-07-2013, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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This. People are just lumping Manziel into the "Not fit for NFL" box based off his physical stature, instead of actually looking at his film. I'll admit, I did the same thing last year with Russell Wilson.
I did it with Wilson more due to the fact that I watched him play, and not always play well, with NC State. I remember watching him late in one game against UNC or another ACC foe and he just wasn't accurate, made a few bad decisions, and wasn't as athletic as he needed to be to take over a game like he was trying to do.
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Old 01-07-2013, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Russell Wilson never ever played like what Manziel did this year. On Wilson's best days, heck, even now... it's just a different level of player.
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Old 01-07-2013, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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dangRuss Wilson, is a nut case like Manning for film and studying the playbook. I saw something done on ESPN when he was at Wisconsion, the way he would study the book and test himself was something you probably rarely see most athletes do.

I don't know if JFM is doing that, maybe he is, maybe he's not. He may just be relying all on his abilities. I can't truly say until something comes out about it. But the guys that make the most of their abilities, are the ones that study the game and know where to make the most of their strengths. instead of relying on the coach to put them in the right spot.
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Old 01-07-2013, 06:50 PM    (permalink
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Mark Sanchez could have used some more time.
I thought he should have stayed but he was riding momentum coming off of a monster rose bowl that year.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 01-07-2013, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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2014 teams that might be looking for a QB in Round 1...TEN, OAK, DAL

AFC East
New England Patriots - No, Brady
Miami Dolphins - No, Tannehill
New York Jets - No, Will get a QB this year
Buffalo Bills - No, Fitz or will get a QB this year

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - No, Will re-sign Flacco
Cincinnati Bengals - No, Dalton
Pittsburgh Steelers - No, Big Ben
Cleveland Browns - No, the Weeden project is still being tested

AFC South
Houston Texans - No, Schaub
Indianapolis Colts - No, Luck
Tennessee Titans - Yes, people will finally admit Locker sucks
Jacksonville Jaguars - No, if they don't draft a QB in Round 1, they will in Round 2

AFC West
Denver Broncos - No, Manning
San Diego Chargers - No, Phillips
Oakland Raiders - Yes, Palmer is a stop gap and Pryor is a joke.
Kansas City Chiefs - No, Geno Smith

NFC East
Washington Redskins - No, RG3
New York Giants - No, Eli
Dallas Cowboys - YES! Romo's a FA!
Philadelphia Eagles - No, will get a QB this year

NFC North
Green Bay Packers - No, Rogers
Minnesota Vikings - No, Ponder
Chicago Bears - No, Cutler
Detroit Lions - No, Stafford

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - No, Ryan
Carolina Panthers - No, Newton
New Orleans Saints - No, Brees
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - No, Freeman

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers - No, Kaep
Seattle Seahawks - No, Wilson
St. Louis Rams - No, Bradford
Arizona Cardinals - No, will get a QB this year
I don't think you can look at it this way. The teams that may or may not be geting a QB this year may opt for the free agency route.

Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassell, Kevin Kolb, and perhaps a few surprises are likely to be available as free agents. One or more of these teams that we think will draft a QB could very well pick up a veteran to make their need far less obvious. This player could easily become the starter for the next few years and push the drafting a QB need down quite a bit.

Also, anything can happen in one NFL year. You stated the Broncos and Pats won't draft one because of who the already have. Have we forgotten the 2011 season for the Colts? You can never count your chickens before they hatch (two seasons from now anyways) in the NFL. For all we know Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, or somebody else may suddenly regress, get hurt, or show major signs of age. Matt Schaub, Brandon Weeden, or Sam Bradford may prove they have reached their ceilings and a better QB may be needed for the team to take the next step.

Joe Flacco and Josh Freeman are far from sure things to get new contracts and/or start playing well. We just don't know who will need a QB... we just know, like every season, that there'll be at least 5-6 that we think will draft a QB and out of those 5-6, 4 will while 2 others we didn't expect do. We just know the need for a QB will never change, and if Manziel is anywhere as good a pro prospect as he is a college player, he will go high no matter which teams are picking.
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Old 01-07-2013, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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This, times 1000.

I keep hearing how Sanchez would have been a better QB if he stayed at USC another year. Maybe this is true, but ONLY because he went to the place young QBs go to die (aka Jets).

If he went to an organisation with a half-decent offensive coaching staff, there's no way he would have been better off receiving college coaching for another year.
I was thinking about the Sanchez leaving early bit. He would've gotten better experience, and more useful experience sitting on the bench for a year in the NFL than he would've doing another year at USC. Instead he went ot the NFL and was fairly decen this rookie year and got better until this season. Considering his game was improving every year until this season, dispels any notion that another year would've helped. He played, he improved, it was only until recently that he has looked like a complete lost cause. There's nothing another year could've done for him. He was overdrafted when he came out anyways.

Besides that, he was a 4th year junior, it's not like he was a completely green 3rd year sophomore or something. He started a season's worth of games and his draft stock elevated higher than I believe it could have ever done if he had stayed another year.
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Old 01-07-2013, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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Most NFL scouts have said on record they red mark QBs who leave early. The more experience college QBs have under center, the logic goes the better prepared they are for the NFL because typically they will see a greater variety of defensive coverages and have more experience throwing the ball in game situations.

You can't really improve as a passer without being forced to make throws in games that count.

Quarterback is a unique position in that respect and can't be compared to any other position in terms of development on the college level.

Sometimes people will bring up examples like Tebow and say he would have been better off leaving FLA early, but his actual game experience in college I believe better prepared him to come in midway through the season for the Broncos 2 years ago and lead them to the playoffs.

I firmly believe Sanchez is on the edge of busting because he left college early. There are details about reading coverages, understanding when a WR is open and ball placement that he could have refined at USC.
Instead by leaving early his development was stunted and IMO he's never caught up in the NFL.

No one ever advises a QB to come out with less than 3 years as a starter, unless he's run out of eligibility.
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Old 01-07-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
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I would love to see a list of NFL QBs who were solid/good pros after leaving college only starting 2 seasons in college.

THen compare that list to the number of good/great NFL QBs who started 3+ years in college.

It's not just about having tape to evaluate for NFL scouts and GMs. It's about the development of the player in actual game situations.

People act like players under today's CBA still sign for $50+ mil guaranteed if they're drafted in the top 3-5.

They don't anymore.

Manziel won't make mega dollars until his second contract, the same way it's set up in the NBA.

If a college QB chases dollars in the NFL instead of trying to become the absolute best player he can be in college, IMO he's ultimately going to lose money.
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Old 01-07-2013, 09:51 PM    (permalink
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Thats why, now, NFL teams love gambling on Qbs, pay scale. Like the Jags taking Gabbert(another early leaver). A few years ago, they would have stuck with him since they paid so much. But since they lose so much money, it okay to can his asss. They get to have another crack at taking a QB.

Years ago, Gabbert, Ponder and Dalton would not have sniffed the first round, but now with pay scale you can gamble more.

For the Bengals it worked out. Jury is still out on Ponder. Gabbert, lucky for Jags busted quick.

Bengals - good gamble
Viking - trapped right now don't know what they have
Jags - lost on the gamble, but get to start over quick than Vikings if they realize they have nothing.

Picks years past were factored with monetary value, not anymore, more trades took place.
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Old 01-07-2013, 10:52 PM    (permalink
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I would love to see a list of NFL QBs who were solid/good pros after leaving college only starting 2 seasons in college.

THen compare that list to the number of good/great NFL QBs who started 3+ years in college.

It's not just about having tape to evaluate for NFL scouts and GMs. It's about the development of the player in actual game situations.

People act like players under today's CBA still sign for $50+ mil guaranteed if they're drafted in the top 3-5.

They don't anymore.

Manziel won't make mega dollars until his second contract, the same way it's set up in the NBA.

If a college QB chases dollars in the NFL instead of trying to become the absolute best player he can be in college, IMO he's ultimately going to lose money.
Why shouldn't a college QB chase dollars? He's risking his health every day he's on the field. It's in his best interest to enter the Pros when he's in a position to make the most money. And the sooner he enters the pros, the sooner he gets to his second contract.

A bad QB is a bad QB regardless of whether he waits until his senior year or not. Does anyone think Blaine Gabbert would magically have gotten better if he had played another year in college? Would he have been drafted higher?
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Old 01-07-2013, 11:03 PM    (permalink
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I dont think money will have any factor in his decision to go pro or not. His family is very wealthy from what I understand. It isnt like he needs to put food on the table for his family that is in a tough spot. I hope he comes out next year after my Jaguars start Tebow this year and we go 3-13 and get the 1st pick in 2014. Johnny Football welcome to Jacksonville.
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Old 01-07-2013, 11:10 PM    (permalink
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[quote=Nikolas;3237423]Why shouldn't a college QB chase dollars? He's risking his health every day he's on the field. It's in his best interest to enter the Pros when he's in a position to make the most money. And the sooner he enters the pros, the sooner he gets to his second contract.

A bad QB is a bad QB regardless of whether he waits until his senior year or not. Does anyone think Blaine Gabbert would magically have gotten better if he had played another year in college? Would he have been drafted higher?[/QUOTE

Gabbert's biggest problem is decision making and a general lack of playing experience. His tools are elite. Gabbert definitely came out too early and it's shown in his struggles in Jacksonville.

Think about it, after being drafted 2 years ago top 10, there are already grumblings the Jags are actively seeking his replacement.
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Old 01-07-2013, 11:24 PM    (permalink
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Best QB I've seen this year....him and Terry Bridgewater are easily better than any QB in this years draft in my opinion.
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Old 01-07-2013, 11:40 PM    (permalink
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Why shouldn't a college QB chase dollars? He's risking his health every day he's on the field. It's in his best interest to enter the Pros when he's in a position to make the most money. And the sooner he enters the pros, the sooner he gets to his second contract.

A bad QB is a bad QB regardless of whether he waits until his senior year or not. Does anyone think Blaine Gabbert would magically have gotten better if he had played another year in college? Would he have been drafted higher?
Gabbert's biggest problem is decision making and a general lack of playing experience. His tools are elite. Gabbert definitely came out too early and it's shown in his struggles in Jacksonville.

Think about it, after being drafted 2 years ago top 10, there are already grumblings the Jags are actively seeking his replacement.
How can playing experience be a problem by now? That might have explained a poor rookie season, but he's had two years of Pro experience since then, with Pro coaching.

From a team's point of view, yes, Gabbart came out too early, and his flaws were not visible enough to scouts, forcing a team to take a gamble on him. From Gabbart's point of view, he hit the bullseye. He got taken much higher than he would have had he waited, which means more money. If he truly were a high caliber QB prospect, he would have quickly developed into a top tier QB.

The point is, there's such a thing as too much college as well as too little. From the standpoint of developing a player, the most efficient track is 2-3 years of college ball followed by the pros. Going pro too soon means you haven't gotten some of the fundamentals down, but waiting too long means you can develop some bad habits that become harder to coach out of your system (for example, Tebow).

Personally, I think the biggest problem is the current trend to throw rookie QBs in ASAP, and hope they are the next Peyton Manning, and not give them time to develop and learn. Rogers is the perfect example of the right way to bring along a QB; have them sit the bench for a year or two and let them learn, and then play them. I understand why this wasn't feasible for the last decade, since the outrageous rookie contracts meant you *had* to play your first rounders, but I'm hoping the pay scale system lets them go back to the former system.

Perfect example: If you look at the OROY award from '67 till the present, only one QB was selected before '04 (Dennis Shaw in 1970), instead they were all WR and RBs. Since 2004 when Big Ben was OROY, five out of eight have been QBs, and it'll almost certainly be 6/9 this year, since it'll probably go to RG3.
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Old 01-08-2013, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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I can't believe people are saying Johnny Football won't succeed in the NFL if he comes out as a Junior versus if he came out as a Senior.

...and better yet... comparing him to Sanchez. wahahahaha!
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Old 01-08-2013, 01:32 AM    (permalink
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There were people saying Manziel should come out after his RS sophomore season after two years as a starter in college, like Vick did.
IMO that's not a great idea.
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Old 01-08-2013, 01:51 AM    (permalink
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Isn't Vick a multiple time pro bowler?

Seems like he was a pretty good pick.
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Old 01-08-2013, 01:52 AM    (permalink
Inspector71
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Didn't Cam Newton only play 2 years?
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Old 01-08-2013, 05:55 AM    (permalink
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Isn't Vick a multiple time pro bowler?

Seems like he was a pretty good pick.

Vince Young and Brandon Meriweather were multiple Pro Bowlers. That distinction has no value to it.
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Old 01-08-2013, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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You are what you are. If early career struggles are truly the reason for stunted growth as a player than you didn't have what it takes in the first place.
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Old 01-08-2013, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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There were people saying Manziel should come out after his RS sophomore season after two years as a starter in college, like Vick did.
IMO that's not a great idea.
I think Manziel should play at least 2 more years. He needs time to develop physically and max out.
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Old 01-08-2013, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Didn't Cam Newton only play 2 years?
If you discount a couple of mopup appearances at Florida then it was only one.

So there are two issues. Can a guy get drafted high with a year or two experience and we know the answer is yes. The other being can he have a successful NFL career with a short college resume and the results there become a little less certain.
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Old 01-12-2013, 04:18 AM    (permalink
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Why do people think he needs to bulk up??

Did Russell Wilson or Drew Brees need to 'bulk up'?
The kid is @205-210#, which is adequate weight for a player his height.
Drew Brees is 100% a pocket passer. He never runs around with the ball inviting big hits from linebackers. Comparison is invalid.

As for Russell Wilson, he doesn't need to bulk up because he's already maxed his frame. He makes Manziel look like a little kid. Wilson practically looks like a juicer while Manziel looks like a fragile bird.

Even if we assume that Manziel will turn out to be the real deal, he's not going see the field nearly as much as Wilson in the pros because he's just not built to take the sustained beating a runner takes unless he bulks up and converts some of that "normal guy" weight into muscle. Admit it: he looks like a kicker.

Photoz:





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Old 01-12-2013, 05:13 AM    (permalink
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I don't like this pic at all. First of all, I don't think Teo is 6'2. We'll know at the combine. Also, it looks like Teo is at least two inches taller than Manziel.
But as others have said, Manziel has at least two more years to get bigger.
That big head throws off his entire physique anyway!lol

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