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Old 01-16-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
Don Vito
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
I don't see anything you said as that inflammatory or ridiculous. Not popular opinion perhaps, but all 4 of those might not be incorrect. And it is early January, lots to change and manipulate.

I give Kiper a hell of a lot of credit for what he did for the draft and give him a ton of credit to not just take it easy and spout popular platitudes about players and mock/rank as such. He still goes outside the box, and I don't think that should be ridiculed. I'd much rather read a unique mock than the usual picks for every team that is barely right by the end of it. Just my opinion, and if you look at his early January mock and April mock they are NOTHING alike. That doesn't make him out of touch, that shows change and more information.
The Warmack as he is a great player and would fit a need, but that is kind of a luxury pick. Not flaming that one so much but he said it himself, a guard hasn't been picked in the top 10 since 1997. I am not saying it won't happen this year, but I don't think it will be by a team like Arizona that has a lot of other needs. Correct me if I am wrong but every QB is on the board when the Cards pick Warmack. I understand some people think Kolb will pan out or be back, but don't you think if every QB is on the board AZ would take one? At this stage of the process I certainly do.



I respect him bringing publicity to the draft as well. I don't dislike Mel at all and I appreciate peple who are willing to go against the grain, but I just found some of those statements to be off.

I like Alec Ogletree more than most, but he was not the best player on the field during the SECCG. He had that return that showed off his crazy speed for his size, but he did not have that great of a game as far as being a linebacker goes. Playing ILB against Bama is no easy task as we have seen a few times this year, but using that as a handicap doesn't bump his performance up to being the best player in the game. Not even close. He showed off some impressive long speed and had an OK game but he was simply not the most impressive player in that game.

The Joeckel selection doesn't make sense because of Brandon Albert being there and the other linemen they have invested high picks in, which kind of makes moving him to another position stupid. It doesn't make sense for the Chiefs to do that. Maybe if Kiper put a note in there saying "I don't think Brandon Albert will be back next year" or something like that, maybe then it would make some sense as far as the mock is concerned (not for the Chiefs, don't worry KC fans) but he didn't.

Werner to JJ Watt? Sure, OK, if you must then go with that comparison. They both can get to the QB but they are very different players besides that.
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Old 01-16-2013, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by descendency View Post
Kansas City will take Ansah #1 overall, because they've seen what JPP can do and Ansah = JPP
IF the KC Cheifs were to disregard the fact they have 2 good OLB's who both had double digit sacks this past season, why would they pass on Jarvis Jones who has proven he can get to the QB as well.

Another thing I could Marcus Lattimore sneaking into the 1st round strictly on potential after he gets healthy, just like Willis McGahee.
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Old 01-16-2013, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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To be honest, I think every expert, draft guru or whatever could be called out for idiotic statements he made before the draft and on players who made them look absolutely clueless later on. This is the nature of the beast. We love to hear so called expert opinions but in the end many many people could do a job where most of your work includes speculation...
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:19 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by draftguru151 View Post
Most of his stuff before the draft (or at least closer to it) is to hype up certain guys or ideas. It's generally his thoughts on guys more than what he actually sees. So when a guy like Hunt starts flying up boards (like he will), Kiper can point to him having him high way back when.
This. Kipers early stuff is just to be different and to promote certain guys. Closer to draft time he will do a real one.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigfreak314 View Post
why would they pass on Jarvis Jones who has proven he can get to the QB as well.
The biggest reason is that Jarvis Jones has spinal stenosis, which could very well be career threatening. USC released him from his scholarship (and advised him to retire from football) because of it.

It's the kind of thing that could lead teams to pass and result in a DaQuan Bowers type slide on draft day.

The next reason is maybe they want someone of Ansah's makeup (Ansah is built more like a true end and less of a LB that can rush the passer). He has a prototypical size, speed, strength combo going for him.

All in all, my comment was a joke (obviously the Chiefs are drafting a QB #1), but I can see plenty of reasons to go after a guy like Ansah over a guy like Jones.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:48 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
This. Kipers early stuff is just to be different and to promote certain guys. Closer to draft time he will do a real one.
This may be true, but if someone's been promulgating a bunch of ridiculous information for months, why would anyone put stock into their final prediction?
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:58 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
This may be true, but if someone's been promulgating a bunch of ridiculous information for months, why would anyone put stock into their final prediction?
ESPN has been doing it for years. It's the entire sports journalism business model.
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Old 01-17-2013, 04:48 AM    (permalink
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I remember when we weren't allowed to insult Mel Kiper Junyah.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:07 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.
All mock drafts are insane. It's quite possibly the dumbet thing one could waste ones time on.

It's purpose is for NFL teams to create a handful of mocks (a day or two before the draft, not months) to see what the possibilities are for their pick. This sets up scenarios. Is there a player they want that will be off the board by the time they pick? Will they have to move up? Can they move down and still get their guy? How far up and how far down? Can they stay where they are? If the board falls this way, where can we go? If it falls this way, where can we go?

Every mock draft done right now sucks. Just so we're all on the same page.



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The biggest reason is that Jarvis Jones has spinal stenosis, which could very well be career threatening. USC released him from his scholarship (and advised him to retire from football) because of it.

It's the kind of thing that could lead teams to pass and result in a DaQuan Bowers type slide on draft day.
Wasn't Bowers fall performance related? I just remember him being a complete flop. And that was in college. Jones actually produced.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:13 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Forenci View Post
So basically he's really uninformed at the beginning and then becomes slightly more informed? I just don't get how everyone gives Kiper a pass. Actually I do get it. It's mainly sentiment and loving his goofy hair and personality.

Perhaps. I think it seems early on Kiper does his own thing, his own opinion and as he talks to sources and NFL teams. Any of us would do the same thing if we had NFL sources.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:14 AM    (permalink
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All mock drafts are insane. It's quite possibly the dumbet thing one could waste ones time on.

It's purpose is for NFL teams to create a handful of mocks (a day or two before the draft, not months) to see what the possibilities are for their pick. This sets up scenarios. Is there a player they want that will be off the board by the time they pick? Will they have to move up? Can they move down and still get their guy? How far up and how far down? Can they stay where they are? If the board falls this way, where can we go? If it falls this way, where can we go?

Every mock draft done right now sucks. Just so we're all on the same page.




Wasn't Bowers fall performance related? I just remember him being a complete flop. And that was in college. Jones actually produced.
No, Bowers fall was medical related. He led the country in sacks that year.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:27 AM    (permalink
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And how that work out for the Bills taking McGahee?

Lattimore will not be healthy by draft time, not to mention the fact he's a RUNNING BACK COMING OFF TWO ACL TEARS. Only an absolutely moronic team would touch him in the first 3 rounds, let alone the 1st.
They got 3 good years out of McGahee, he was just unhappy playing in a small city. Considering that the average shelf life for a RB is 3.5 years it wasn't like they got completely screwed. I'm not saying its set in stone that Lattimore is going in the 1st rd I just stated I could see it as a possibility.

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Old 01-17-2013, 07:12 AM    (permalink
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It seems to me that a lot of Draft sites now go from sources as opposed to what they personally see on film.

I think the Huddle Report Top 100 contest is a big reason why. It means sites want to predict where people will go as opposed to whether they think someone will make it in the NFL or not (and there is a difference).

Look at Ourlads and Wes Bunting - never high in the top 100 contest as they refused to play the game, but have been at the top of the business for years (and Bunting now working in the NFL).

I'd rather someone refused to rank players like everyone else if they think they are going to bust out - there are numerous busts each year, so why does everyone pretty much have the same rankings?

As for Kiper specifically - he's not stretched as thin as Mayock is now (who has been a victim of his own success with his Draft coverage leading to other opportunities), but I think that does apply with him with his radio show on Saturday morning presumably meaning scouting in person chances are limited. When he studies a prospect closely though, I think he can get it right and with his experience he can see things that many of us don't and probably never will. I've never paid for his guide or ESPN Insider, so just going from podcasts and the Draft (when we've had ESPN coverage here in the UK), so that might be wrong.

For right now I think Bucky Brooks is the best because he works at it year round where Kiper and Mayock can't. PFW's Nolan Nawrocki is good too - but his rankings change right before the Draft to play the top 100 game - but PFW produce a pre-Combine guide and that's always his best work for me.

A lot of the guys on NFL Network watch 3 tapes of each prospect - I don't care what anyone says, you will make mistakes from that few watches and maybe a pro day - so I'm not sure they are as good as people think. I seem to recall Mayock had Blaine Gabbert as his #1 QB for example and that's a classic example (although as a Jags fan I don't think we've given him an opportunity to succeed - if we'd have done what the Redskins and Seahawks have done this season it might well have been different, but that's another story).

As for Kiper getting panned for being different - don't agree. In January who is to say what's right and what's wrong? And we won't know for 3-5 years whether these kids make it and these raw gradings are correct or completely wrong.

I say let's have more opinion and less mirroring NFL teams boards from "sources". Trust your eyes and start predicting future NFL success or failure and not just whether a prospect is going to be a top 100 pick or not.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:07 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.
Hate to sound like a homer but Minter is legit.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:30 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
It seems to me that a lot of Draft sites now go from sources as opposed to what they personally see on film.

I think the Huddle Report Top 100 contest is a big reason why. It means sites want to predict where people will go as opposed to whether they think someone will make it in the NFL or not (and there is a difference).

Look at Ourlads and Wes Bunting - never high in the top 100 contest as they refused to play the game, but have been at the top of the business for years (and Bunting now working in the NFL).

I'd rather someone refused to rank players like everyone else if they think they are going to bust out - there are numerous busts each year, so why does everyone pretty much have the same rankings?

As for Kiper specifically - he's not stretched as thin as Mayock is now (who has been a victim of his own success with his Draft coverage leading to other opportunities), but I think that does apply with him with his radio show on Saturday morning presumably meaning scouting in person chances are limited. When he studies a prospect closely though, I think he can get it right and with his experience he can see things that many of us don't and probably never will. I've never paid for his guide or ESPN Insider, so just going from podcasts and the Draft (when we've had ESPN coverage here in the UK), so that might be wrong.

For right now I think Bucky Brooks is the best because he works at it year round where Kiper and Mayock can't. PFW's Nolan Nawrocki is good too - but his rankings change right before the Draft to play the top 100 game - but PFW produce a pre-Combine guide and that's always his best work for me.

A lot of the guys on NFL Network watch 3 tapes of each prospect - I don't care what anyone says, you will make mistakes from that few watches and maybe a pro day - so I'm not sure they are as good as people think. I seem to recall Mayock had Blaine Gabbert as his #1 QB for example and that's a classic example (although as a Jags fan I don't think we've given him an opportunity to succeed - if we'd have done what the Redskins and Seahawks have done this season it might well have been different, but that's another story).

As for Kiper getting panned for being different - don't agree. In January who is to say what's right and what's wrong? And we won't know for 3-5 years whether these kids make it and these raw gradings are correct or completely wrong.

I say let's have more opinion and less mirroring NFL teams boards from "sources". Trust your eyes and start predicting future NFL success or failure and not just whether a prospect is going to be a top 100 pick or not.
I don't disagree and actually did a podcast on this way back when. But this thread is exactly why people don't. If you aren't close to general consensus, then you are out of touch or crazy. If Kiper is going off of his eyes right now and taking major criticism from it, it'd seem better to him to take his sources and make a board, no?

Another reason why people won't just discuss their own views to predict NFL success: No one cares after the draft is over and the games start. No one cares that I had Aaron Rodgers over Alex Smith and Rodgers had NFL success right now. And even in the same vain (though to a lesser extent,) no one cares all that much if you were wrong in your views unless the guy was a high pick and colossal bust.

You have to walk a tightrope, it is something I think Scott, the CBS guys, and others do well. If NFL teams are rating a guy you love as a 5th round pick, you don't have him in your top 32 but talk him up, bump him up higher, etc. See Scott with Lavonte David last year.

Also, is Wes in the NFL? Have you seen that somewhere? Talked him in July and he said he was taking some time away, I've been wondering and hoping all is well with him.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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I don't see the problem with Allen being the 3rd WR off the board, as long as 1 and 2 are Patterson and Austin. The rest of it is completely hilarious though.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:35 AM    (permalink
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I don't disagree and actually did a podcast on this way back when. But this thread is exactly why people don't. If you aren't close to general consensus, then you are out of touch or crazy. If Kiper is going off of his eyes right now and taking major criticism from it, it'd seem better to him to take his sources and make a board, no?

Another reason why people won't just discuss their own views to predict NFL success: No one cares after the draft is over and the games start. No one cares that I had Aaron Rodgers over Alex Smith and Rodgers had NFL success right now. And even in the same vain (though to a lesser extent,) no one cares all that much if you were wrong in your views unless the guy was a high pick and colossal bust.

You have to walk a tightrope, it is something I think Scott, the CBS guys, and others do well. If NFL teams are rating a guy you love as a 5th round pick, you don't have him in your top 32 but talk him up, bump him up higher, etc. See Scott with Lavonte David last year.

Also, is Wes in the NFL? Have you seen that somewhere? Talked him in July and he said he was taking some time away, I've been wondering and hoping all is well with him.
I see your point - I guess I must be a little different in what I want to read!

I asked about Wes on the NFP forum and was told he'd taken a job as a consultant for an NFL team - but not confirmed anywhere else.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:52 AM    (permalink
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I don't see the problem with Allen being the 3rd WR off the board, as long as 1 and 2 are Patterson and Austin. The rest of it is completely hilarious though.
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Old 01-18-2013, 10:49 AM    (permalink
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the most interesting Mel prediction to me is Mike Glennon in the top 25. That really makes sense if Geno and Matt Barkley get graded as 2nd round prospects. It sets up the scenario of a team trading back into the top 25 to get their QB. Keep in mind Glennon is like 6'5" (Flacco-ish) and these other guys are all about 6'2". Tall enough but put all these guys into a room, Glennon is probably the most impressive (eye test).
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Old 01-18-2013, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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No, Bowers fall was medical related. He led the country in sacks that year.
It was medical and performance related iirc he had a horrendous pro day
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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I remember when we weren't allowed to insult Mel Kiper Junyah.
Good old rule #14. Not only couldn't you insult old Mel you couldn't even make any mailman referances.
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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IMO all draft gurus follow a pattern in their mocks, early in the season many give their best shots at predicting the draft based on what they have seen. They follow this up under the pressure to make changes to keep their followers interested plus the added facts of how prospects season's are progressing during the college season, but they never give us their final tally until the analysts on NFL Network and NFL.com start in analyzing prospects.

They are all aware that these analysts have access to scouts and GM's throughout the league, something they only have minimal access to. The scouts and GM's have security forces to investigate every detail of a prospects career and health which we have no access to except from rumours.
Once the NFL Network and the NFL.com analysts post their top 25 or top 50, the rankings of all gurus suddenly are dramatically rearranged whether it is Kiper, Scott or any other service.

Even then, pretty much all gurus will keep their final board secret right up till the bitter end, they give us hints but their jobs and profits depend on keeping us interested in their product so we will continue to come to their sites and pay any fees that are required. To accomplish this, their mocks will change every time to give their followers something to argue about.

The last week before the draft, they will finally give us a true picture of what they think and that is the only list you can really judge them on.
To judge Kiper on what he posts today in his mock is ridiculous, it doesn't represent what he really believes, it is just put out to keep his customers coming back for more. Kiper is successful because over the years, he has found this formula works and he isn't going to change it anytime soon.
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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They got 3 good years out of McGahee, he was just unhappy playing in a small city. Considering that the average shelf life for a RB is 3.5 years it wasn't like they got completely screwed. I'm not saying its set in stone that Lattimore is going in the 1st rd I just stated I could see it as a possibility.

Anything is possible. This isn't happening period.
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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Mayock is usually spot on with his analysis of DB's which is to be expected since that was the position he played. He is routinely far off base however with his offensive and defensive line rankings which bugs me. I think if you're looking at the entire body of work for all positions Kiper is still the best.
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I dunno even half of those guys why did we sign them jeez.
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Old 01-18-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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They got 3 good years out of McGahee, he was just unhappy playing in a small city. Considering that the average shelf life for a RB is 3.5 years it wasn't like they got completely screwed. I'm not saying its set in stone that Lattimore is going in the 1st rd I just stated I could see it as a possibility.

MaGahee was drafted in one of the weakest drafts I have ever seen in my 55 years as a draftnik, this draft outside of the QB position is one of the deepest I have ever seen even if the top 5 is questionable at this point in the draft process, although it may well blossom as the post season continues.
There is zero chance that Lattimore will get drafted in round 1, now I don't have inside information on how serious Lattimore's injury is, but I cannot see him getting drafted before round 4 at the earliest and he could easily go undrafted if the doctors don't clear him.
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