Mock Draft 4.0 - 1/18/13

[jayceheathman]

I am not a big fan of the WRs this year even though the Texans badly need one. I hope we can attempt to make a move for Greg Jennings and then sign Reid with the first pick.

[Lil Quip]

I understand the BPA for the Chiefs, but I think if they have any sense, Joeckel's value is diminished for the reasons many have alluded to.

To get a tad technical: Albert costs a lot more than Joeckel. However he is a know quantity. Can Joeckel be better? Probably but there is a significant risk associated with a draftee. Plus how valuable to a team is a Thomas caliber LT versus a Albert level LT? But that is an argument for another day.

So taking all these things into account, lets just say Albert and Joeckel are equal value... The opportunity cost of using the pick on Joeckel and letting Albert walk versus signing Albert and getting a player, even a reached on QB is huge. This cost detracts from the value of Joeckel, therefore he is no longer the best player available.

Granted the Chiefs GM might not look at it from this direction, but if he doesn't at least look at this angle, I feel bad for the organization.

Whew. So yeah, taking this into account, I think a pass rusher or Milliner or a reach quarterback or maybe a high rising WR provide better value.

The one caveat that changes everything... they can always trade Houston or Hali or coerce someone into biting on signing a franchised ALbert. Then either Joeckel or one of the bevy of passrushers instantly becomes a huge BPA.

[Lil Quip]

For the Pats pick, I am not that huge on a DT. They never hurt, but it is not that huge of a need. If anything on the front seven is needed it, it is a pass rush centric DE.

For DT, we have a nice 'heavy' set: Love and Wilfork. For the 'light' set, we have wilfork and deadrick. Not the greasted situation, but not bad. Plus we have Pryor coming off injury and a nice backup guy, Forston on the PS.

For DE, in a perfect world, we have Jones as the every down stud DE. Ninkovich is the road grader run play keyed guy, and we bring in a pass rush DE to wreck havok with Jones on passing downs. We have Scott and Francis doing admirably though.

Number one on defense is corner. Keep Talib and draftee pushes Dennard to nickel. Worse case, Talib leaves, draftee is number one and Dennard is two.

On offense, having a first round talent at receiver works in a lot of ways.

[bruschis4all]

I like your reasons for the Pats pick. And, also the player you picked.

[shylo3716]

Originally Posted by DcmRulz

Some WR is going to break into the top 15 after the Senior Bowl and Combine.

I hope it isn't Keenan Allen (or maybe I do, I dunno, I just like him in Minny though. Either him or any WR from UT)

DeAndre Hopkins

[Bob Sanders Dreadlock]

I can dig the colts pick. Need to do some research on Cooper. How close is he to chance warmack who i am in love with

[cmarq83]

Originally Posted by Lil Quip

For the Pats pick, I am not that huge on a DT. They never hurt, but it is not that huge of a need. If anything on the front seven is needed it, it is a pass rush centric DE.

For DT, we have a nice 'heavy' set: Love and Wilfork. For the 'light' set, we have wilfork and deadrick. Not the greasted situation, but not bad. Plus we have Pryor coming off injury and a nice backup guy, Forston on the PS.

For DE, in a perfect world, we have Jones as the every down stud DE. Ninkovich is the road grader run play keyed guy, and we bring in a pass rush DE to wreck havok with Jones on passing downs. We have Scott and Francis doing admirably though.

Number one on defense is corner. Keep Talib and draftee pushes Dennard to nickel. Worse case, Talib leaves, draftee is number one and Dennard is two.

On offense, having a first round talent at receiver works in a lot of ways.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.

A pass rushing DT is right behind a LB with coverage skills as our #1 need on defense. We've had solid production from our DE's this season whether it be Jones, Francis, Ninkovich, Scott, Cunningham, or Hightower off of the edge. However, in our base set when we don't blitz we only have 2 guys who are capable of getting persistent pressure on the QB. I like Deaderick and Love, but against a team like Indy or Denver that is going to air it out a ton, they don't really have a lot of value. Adding a prototypical 3 tech will add a bunch to this defense. There is also no way we can rely on Pryor who hasn't played in 3 seasons, and is a free agent anyways.

As far as CB goes, Talib and Dennard are both better on the outside than on the inside IMO. This is the first time I've ever said this, but I think we need a small corner who is a more explosive athlete to play the slot CB position. I don't think it becomes a big need unless Talib doesn't resign which I don't think is very likely.

[bruschis4all]

Originally Posted by cmarq83

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.

A pass rushing DT is right behind a LB with coverage skills as our #1 need on defense. We've had solid production from our DE's this season whether it be Jones, Francis, Ninkovich, Scott, Cunningham, or Hightower off of the edge. However, in our base set when we don't blitz we only have 2 guys who are capable of getting persistent pressure on the QB. I like Deaderick and Love, but against a team like Indy or Denver that is going to air it out a ton, they don't really have a lot of value. Adding a prototypical 3 tech will add a bunch to this defense. There is also no way we can rely on Pryor who hasn't played in 3 seasons, and is a free agent anyways.

As far as CB goes, Talib and Dennard are both better on the outside than on the inside IMO. This is the first time I've ever said this, but I think we need a small corner who is a more explosive athlete to play the slot CB position. I don't think it becomes a big need unless Talib doesn't resign which I don't think is very likely.

And Wilfork isn't going to play forever. I see Love and Deaderick as depth/backups. Both are free agents after 2013 season also.

Possible help at de is Armond Armstead who had medical issues at USC and went to Canada. Led CFL in sacks. Pats worked him out and are one of the teams interested in signing him.

Can't complain if the right WR fell either. Eventually, Pats are going to have to knock on that door. Sounds like Patterson and Allen will be gone. I thought Hopkins was outstanding. Curious how is 40 time is at the combine and we won't know. But, how his interview went. Do they think he canpick up the offense. Maybe, Terrance Williams too.

[bigbluedefense]

I'd be very happy with Ansah.

Warmack is growing on me though. If Warmack is on the board, I'd be very tempted. Very tempted.

I haven't seen a plow like Warmack at OG in a little while.

[CashmoneyDrew]

Hmm... Haven't looked at the mock yet, but let me guess:

The Titans don't have many glaring holes, and don't rule out wide receiver as a dark horse.

Eh?

[T-RICH49]

UGHHHHHHHH man what a bad KC pick

[Phillysteeler]

I have to say I disagree with the Steeler's pick. Hampton only played on 50% of the defensive snaps last year, and they still had the number one defense. McClendon looked good when he was in, and Ta'amu is still there also. I just don't see NT as that big of a need, considering Keenan Lewis may walk, and both of their safeties are old. They will also have a glaring hole when Foote retires, and he plans to this offseason, so an ILB pick may be necessary.

[killxswitch]

Scott, Cooper is a fine pick for the Colts. It's arguably the #1 need (maybe tied with OLB), and the value seems solid there. I'd like to know your thoughts on Travis Frederick and what makes Cooper the superior overall prospect. I am concerned about Cooper's strength and passivity. Can he drive block NFL linemen? Is he the type that can stand his ground against JJ Watt twice a year?

[bitonti]

great mock Scott, as always. Agree about Joekel. Andy Reid doesn't need Geno, he will find a different QB. The fact that Geno passed on the Senior Bowl, when the KC chiefs are the coaching staff is a huge missed opportunity. And the way to defeat the Geno Smith is good enough for 7, he's good enough for 1 logic is to drop him out of the round completely.

[Cigaro]

Sheldon Richardson doesn't fit what we need. Dwan Edwards played very well this season at UT. But we still need someone to fend off blockers for Kuechly & Co. to make more plays. Richardson doesn't help that. No matter how we shift our lineup, taking Richardson leaves us with two UTs and no reliable NTs.

If Hankins and Je. Williams were off of the board, it would make more sense. But neither are, so he simply doesn't address a need. Quality player, but wrong fit.

[Maybe This Year Mayhew]

Supposedly deep at CB. Milliner a slight reach at 5. Lions will really really need a DE as Avril should be walking and KVB was without out a doubt the worst DE in the league this year and will be a cap cut.

Give me Werner or Moore over Milliner and come back in Round 2 and nab a CB or safety to help the Detroit secondary.

Of couse if the Lions lose Houston and Avril to free agency, then it doesn't matter Milliner or Werner or Moore.

[Leon Sandcastle]

Originally Posted by Halsey

No WR in the top 20 is obviously unusual. What are the chances one of the WRs can work his way into being selected much higher than most people are currently anticipating, ala DHB, Donte Stallworth, etc?

I could see Codarrelle Patterson working his way into the Top 10.

[T-RICH49]

Originally Posted by bitonti

great mock Scott, as always. Agree about Joekel. Andy Reid doesn't need Geno, he will find a different QB. The fact that Geno passed on the Senior Bowl, when the KC chiefs are the coaching staff is a huge missed opportunity. And the way to defeat the Geno Smith is good enough for 7, he's good enough for 1 logic is to drop him out of the round completely.

uhh KC is not coaching the SR BOwl.The Raiders & Lions are and still you are so wrong on this

[regoob2]

Love the Teo pick.

[vidae]

Originally Posted by bitonti

great mock Scott, as always. Agree about Joekel. Andy Reid doesn't need Geno, he will find a different QB. The fact that Geno passed on the Senior Bowl, when the KC chiefs are the coaching staff is a huge missed opportunity. And the way to defeat the Geno Smith is good enough for 7, he's good enough for 1 logic is to drop him out of the round completely.

Since when are the Chiefs coaching in the Senior Bowl?

[Phillysteeler]

Originally Posted by vidae

Since when are the Chiefs coaching in the Senior Bowl?

According to this pdf which is a Senior Bowl press release:

http://www.seniorbowl.com/files/coac...%20release.pdf

It is the Lions coaching the South and the Raiders coaching the North. This came out on January 3rd, so I'm not sure if anything would have changed since then.

[scottyboy]

ziggy to the giants would be sexytime.com

also, it seems Fisher to the Chargers is this years no brainer, so the Chargers will find a way to mess it up.

[bornnraisedwhodat]

Good stuff Scott. Not a huge fan of the Saints pick, but I like the player. Im just scared of DT's in the 1st round, especially where the Saints are at right now. Unless it is a DT that can literally come in and be outstanding, I'd pass. DT's have a high bust rate and take a while to develop. I'd be shocked if Saints dont go DE or LB.

[Lil Quip]

Originally Posted by bruschis4all

And Wilfork isn't going to play forever. I see Love and Deaderick as depth/backups. Both are free agents after 2013 season also.

Possible help at de is Armond Armstead who had medical issues at USC and went to Canada. Led CFL in sacks. Pats worked him out and are one of the teams interested in signing him.

Can't complain if the right WR fell either. Eventually, Pats are going to have to knock on that door. Sounds like Patterson and Allen will be gone. I thought Hopkins was outstanding. Curious how is 40 time is at the combine and we won't know. But, how his interview went. Do they think he canpick up the offense. Maybe, Terrance Williams too.

Okay to respond to both, our DT picture isn't as rosy as I put forth earlier, but a DT is still a luxury pick in my book. Granted if a guy with a top ten pick grade drops, lets snatch him up.

I think when it comes down to it, if we don't trade down in a draft that is ripe for it, WR is going to end up being the pick. The Welker situation, Edelman never taking a starting receiver job by the jugular, and a one year older Lloyd coupled with a bunch of good value WR picks makes me think that.

I think the top two guys will definitely be gone, and it seems like that is Patterson if he runs well and Allen with Hopkins as a dark horse. Still, I think there is a chance out of Patterson, Hunter, Allen, Hopkins and Austin, two of those will be available.

[Babylon]

Originally Posted by SolidGold

That's a good point. If they took Joeckel at 1 overall they could always trade back into the first and get a QB they have targeted therefore getting a QB in the first round. I wouldn't blow a number one pick on a QB if they were not worthy of the pick. Teams that draft poorly at the QB position set the franchise back more than those that do not. One only has to reference the Jamarcus Russel debacle to see how damning over drafting a QB can be.

I understand the Chiefs fan base is frustrated and rightfully so but you shouldn't just draft a QB to draft a QB. If you believe that QB is worthy of the pick than by all means draft a QB at number one overall but not QB in this draft at this point has emerged as that guy.

Barkley, Smith, Wilson and Glennon are all on fairly equal ground at this point as the first QB to be chosen. If someone clearly separates themselves from the group than by all means pick him 1st overall but if not you are just inviting mediocrity for another few years as this QB does not pan out and holds the team back.

I agree. As long as one of those QBs don't just blow everyone away at the combine you can trade back in or even get your Andy Dalton type early in the second. If someone really wows the chiefs before the draft they should just take them #1.