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Old 01-21-2013, 07:17 PM    (permalink
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This thread is gonna separate the men from the boys.
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Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR
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Old 01-21-2013, 08:51 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Long arms is very important for an OT and anything below the norm is a concern for teams. In a battle between an OT and say a DE, the player who can get his hands on the opponent often wins the battle between the 2, so even a 1/2 " can be crucial.
As for Luck, I never saw any reliable source that questioned Luck's arm strength to play in the NFL, they just said he didn't have a howizer.
You miss the point about arm length. It's impossible for 1/2" to be the difference between "good" and "bad", since in between "good" and "bad" there's "adequate". Wide Receivers who are 5'11" aren't short and wide receivers who are 6'0" aren't tall. Offensive tackles with arms that are 33 1/4" long don't have short arms and offensive tackles with arms that are 33 3/4" long don't have long arms. All of these things are in the range of "normal", neither good nor bad. It's simply wrong to try to equate "normal, adequate, average" with either a negative or a positive.

Plus, "arm length" for offensive tackles is drastically overstated in its importance. Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Jason Peters, have all made multiple pro bowls with arms that are shorter than 33" (the normal standard for "adequate"). The only reason people put so much emphasis on arm length is that the most important thing for OTs (their footwork) isn't easily quantifiable.

If you didn't hear people ripping Andrew Luck's arm strength, you didn't watch enough ESPN in 2011. This was, in retrospect, a good decision.

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I don't get your point, the NFL knows exactly what it means when they say a player's motor runs hot and cold or takes plays off, it has very little to do with snap count and can be said about both premium programs and lower level programs. A player either gives a 100% on every play or he is lazy and only puts out when he feels like it. It can be corrected at the next level with solid coaching but it is definitely a red flag on draft day.
Defensive line is the most effort intensive position in football. Even the best defensive linemen in the NFL don't play 100% of the snaps. It's simply impossible for a 300+ lb human being to go full tilt on the defensive for an entire football game (since being 300+ lbs isn't that healthy to begin with.) This is why NFL coaches rotate their defensive linemen; so they take plays off when not on the field. So if a guy in college doesn't give 100% on every play because his coaches are asking him to play 70+ snaps every game, and don't take him out in a situation where any NFL coach would, then this isn't a negative as far as evaluation is concerned. Sure, there are DL who are lazy and who rarely play hard, and that's important to note. But it's important to distinguish between guys who are legitimately lazy, and guys who are just overworked by their coaches in college.

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Yeah, but we aren't pro scouts or GM's and we aren't always aware of who the top prospects are until the post season arrives. There is also a meaning given to the term 'elite' at every position, just because you top a position doesn't make you elite, the term is only used for prospects who are very gifted. If the term 'elite speed' is used for a position, I know exactly what that analyst is talking about, so I don't see the point you are making.
There's a difference between "the top prospect" and being "elite", just like there's a difference between being "very good" and being "the best". When it comes to quantifiable things like "speed" or "height" you can just use numbers.

I think PFF's Sam Monson may have made this point better than I had on twitter today (@PFF_Sam)

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Bottom line is most guys aren't elite, outstanding or awful. Most players are some form of average with highs and lows. Let's be honest.
...
TV is the worst culprit. Someone needs to hold some kind of seminar for those guys in how to talk about a guy without claiming he's an All-Pro cos of one nice play
There's lots of words that mean "very good" (among them: excellent, superb, outstanding, exceptional, marvelous, wonderful, magnificent, splendid, fine, ace, great, terrific, tremendous, fantastic, splendiferous, fab, top-notch, dandy, divine, bang-up, skookum, class, awesome, wicked, mean, cool, out of this world, hunky-dory, A-OK,) vary your phrasing! Instead of talking about how great something vague is, talk about something really specific being good!

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That is how NFL GM's and scouts measure prospects, it is their terminology that people are picking up on and projection is their profession. I do agree that draftniks may overuse the term but not top analysts.
NFL GMs and scouts measure prospects based on their expectation of whether or not they will go to the pro bowl? These guys do realize that the pro bowl voting is a complete joke (Jeff Saturday got benched for poor play and elected to the Pro Bowl in the same week), and that nothing in the draft is guaranteed. I'm wondering about your source on "this is how executives actually think".

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While I agree that no pick is 'safe', Aaron Curry draft year was considered to be a very weak draft class and I don't think too many people thought at the time that Curry was a sure thing.
I think your recollection is off as concerns Curry.

Here are some of the things Scott had to say about Curry:

"As good as any linebacker prospect to come along in recent memory...A legitimate Top 10 talent who should be one of the most highly rated players available for the 2009 NFL Draft. "

"Curry is widely regarded to be one of the best and safest prospects in this draft, which is a fantastic combination when you are talking about giving someone tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money"

Virtually everybody had Curry penciled in as "safest pick in the draft" and he's one of the first players from that first round to be unemployed (after being trade away for peanuts).

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Here, I totally disagree, seniors are well scouted and there is tons of film on them as starters that has been gone over by scouts and GM's in placing them in their draft positions, although teams still use the Senior Bowl, combine and pro days to make some alterations to their boards. However, the junior class is a totally different story. Pro teams don't know who will declare until around Jan 15th, their scouting and film work is only rudimentary on the junior class till that date. Many juniors at top schools only get extensive playing time when the group before them graduates or declares and there are many one year wonders in the junior class. Pro teams take the post season very seriously for this group and risers and fallers are many. Their draft positions can change dramatically as they go through the post season process.
Team boards for junior are very flexible even through pro days.

As for injuries, the doctors do a thorough and extensive examination at the combine but the blood work and ex-rays can take a month to get back to them before they know the full results so boards can change due to the process and players can rise or fall based on the results. Of course, prospects get injured sometimes late in the draft process and that can affect their draft positioning considerably.
None of the "rising" and "falling" you're talking about takes place on the day of the draft, or the day before the draft, however. The combine reports (including all the medical) are available at least a month before the draft. Pro days are all done by then. You're using pro days and the combine to refine your evaluations, not to decide them (since the majority of your evaluations are based on tape study, which is something you should have been doing on Juniors last week.)

Good drafting teams have their boards completely set a week or two out of the draft. This is when you hear the most reports of "risers" and "fallers". So while guys can hurt or help their draft stock now, nobody's draft stock changes much in mid-April.
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Old 01-22-2013, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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Good drafting teams have their boards completely set a week or two out of the draft. This is when you hear the most reports of "risers" and "fallers". So while guys can hurt or help their draft stock now, nobody's draft stock changes much in mid-April.
I agree that nobody's draft stock changes much in mid April, the one exception is a late injury but that is about it.
However, right now through the Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Days, there are risers and fallers and it can be pretty dramatic especially among the junior class and less premium conference players.

Quote:
You're using pro days and the combine to refine your evaluations, not to decide them (since the majority of your evaluations are based on tape study, which is something you should have been doing on Juniors last week.)
Here, I disagree somewhat, teams take the information they get from the Senior Bowl practices, the Combine and their Pro Days and go back over the film on every prospect they want to consider, to see if what they originally saw on film checks out with what they have gathered from the above events. Their can be dramatic changes from their original evaluation.
As an example, prospects rarely have to compete against pro caliber talent in college and may only play against a few talented college players throughout their entire college career. They may look say, fast, strong, and quick against inferior talent on film, but many times these are fallacies exposed at the above events and team's draft boards get rearranged considerably. It is a combination of film and facts from the above events that set a team's draft board not just film as I think you are suggesting. Correct me if I misunderstood.
Teams and the league do not spend millions and attend these events in force, if they didn't have a strong impact on their draft boards.
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Old 01-22-2013, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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NFL GMs and scouts measure prospects based on their expectation of whether or not they will go to the pro bowl? These guys do realize that the pro bowl voting is a complete joke (Jeff Saturday got benched for poor play and elected to the Pro Bowl in the same week), and that nothing in the draft is guaranteed. I'm wondering about your source on "this is how executives actually think".
Have you ever seen a Bledso scouting report ranking prospects, which is used by many teams to suplement their own scouting departments? This is how they rank players so I'm assuming that it is a very common system among pro teams on how they evaluate prospects.
Nobody cares how the Pro Bowl selections are made, however, teams are quite capable of breaking down prospects into these catagories based on talent, at least in their own minds.
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Old 01-22-2013, 11:50 AM    (permalink
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Every Draft is supposedly deep with WRs and pass rushers.
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Old 01-22-2013, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Everybody questions the motor of 320lb defensive linemen. I was watching a tape of him against TCU and he took some plays off. He's 320lb and it was 97 degrees. Is there a big defensive lineman who hasn't had his motor questioned?
It ain't easy lugging 320 around every snap.
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Old 01-22-2013, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Every player at the same position from the same school is the same
I heard this week someone compare Zac Dysert to Ben Roethlisberger. You hear every Iowa left tackle compared to Robert Gallery. This is ridiculous and lazy. Schools don't recruit guys specifically because they resemble guys they've had in the past, and you can't turn someone into someone else through coaching or experimental weight room technology. If the only reason a prospect reminds you of someone else is the position and the color or the uniform, you need to dig a little deeper. Zac Dysert is absolutely not the same kind of player as Ben Roethlisberger and Riley Reiff is not Bryan Bulaga is not Robert Gallery.
If the players came from the same coaching staffs then it does make some sense, especially when you see consistent busts, like the dreaded Florida State Defensive End or Penn State Running Back. For example I have seen Bjoern Werner referred to as the classic FSU DE, when he has no resemblance or ties to any of the players who were busts before him.
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Old 01-22-2013, 04:14 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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I agree that nobody's draft stock changes much in mid April, the one exception is a late injury but that is about it.
However, right now through the Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Days, there are risers and fallers and it can be pretty dramatic especially among the junior class and less premium conference players.
I agree that right now prospects are rising and falling, that's why I specifically said "close to the draft" when complaining about rising and falling. I don't want to hear Mel Kiper (or anybody else) talk about so-and-so rising or falling 3 hours before the draft because that's ridiculous. If so and so is rising or falling in February, that's fine.


I think we basically agree here, the senior bowl, combine, and pro days are important. They're ultimately used to refine or fill in holes in what you can glean from film, but they're important.

What teams are not doing is changing their minds significantly about players well after all of the data has been collected. If you've watched all of the tape on a guy, saw him play in a post-season all-star game, he worked out at the combine and you talked to him there and you've read the medical report, you saw him at his pro day, and you brought him in for a visit (or elected not to) then short of the guy getting into trouble/getting hurt off the field right before the draft, there's almost nothing that can happen after all of the data is in your possession and has been processed that will cause your evaluation of that player to change.

Yet... closest to the draft is when you hear the mainstream sports media talking the most about risers and fallers, yet this is when nobody is actually rising or falling. That's the annoying part.

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Have you ever seen a Bletso scouting report ranking prospects, which is used by many teams to suplement their own scouting departments? This is how they rank players so I'm assuming that it is a very common system among pro teams on how they evaluate prospects.
Nobody cares how the Pro Bowl selections are made, however, teams are quite capable of breaking down prospects into these catagories based on talent, at least in their own minds.
I have, and the language that BLESTO uses is "potential pro bowler", which is not the language that talking heads on TV use. "Potential pro bowler" is fine, since literally everybody in the NFL is a potential pro bowler. It's still a silly thing to say since it's meaningless, and when repeated over and over again over a short period of time, it's annoying.

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Old 01-22-2013, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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If the players came from the same coaching staffs then it does make some sense, especially when you see consistent busts, like the dreaded Florida State Defensive End or Penn State Running Back. For example I have seen Bjoern Werner referred to as the classic FSU DE, when he has no resemblance or ties to any of the players who were busts before him.
But it's the height of laziness to say "Bryan Bulaga will have to move to Guard since Robert Gallery had to move to guard" or "Aaron Rodgers won't be a good quarterback since Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller couldn't cut it as pro QBs."

Certainly coaches and schemes have tendencies that will affect the stats that certain positions put up (e.g. historically inflated sack numbers for FSU DEs , or inflated yardage numbers for Big Ten) but this just underlines the unreliability of falling in love with the stat sheet when evaluating guys for the draft. When a guy gets tons of sacks against lesser competition, but isn't effective against NFL quality talent, then he's probably not going to cut it at DE. This is what you should look at, not "well, he's another FSU DE, so he can't play."
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Old 01-22-2013, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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- Allmost all white DE´s arent great athletes, but they all have ”Non-Stop motors”. )

- Almost any above average MLB prospect is usually considered a great captain/leader.

- If a QB has a rocket arm, he has great potential almost by default.
(This one probably bothers me the most, since pundits seem to keep using it long into a players NFL career. ”Sure Jay Cutler has shown below average mechanics, leadership and decision making through out his 7 seasons in the league, but he still has a Howitzer of an arm, he has elite potential!!!”)
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Mike Mayock overuses every cliche that is on that list. I think Mike Mayock is the most overrated draft analyzer ever. I'd rather listen to my 10 year old brother talk about the draft than listen to Mike Mayock.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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My biggest annoyance about the draft is draftniks, analysts, fans etc who compare draft prospects to all time players and/or the best in their positons currently. There are 53 players on every NFL team and there are 32 teams. There are often times way better comparisons out there.

This also falls under the racial stereotype annoyance too.

Wes Welker is the obvious one. This guy has produced at an all time great level and is white. He lacks elite physical talent but makes up for it with smarts and savvy. Yet every year there is at least one player compared to Wes Welker in the draft.

If you are a big strong side end who maybe lacks elite speed then you're Justin Tuck.

If you are 6'4 or bigger but lighter than ideal for a 43, then not only are you an obivous fit for a 34 but you are Demarcus Ware. The same Demarcus Ware who is one of the best pass rushers of all time currently in the middle of a hall of fame career.

If you are a excellent blocking TE who is a good receiver and also happens to be white then you're Heath Miller or Jason Witten, despite the fact both of these guys are top TEs

Ziggy Ansah is JPP despite their games not really having much similarities.

If you are a massive NT then you are either Vince Wilfork (if a traditional NT) or Haloti Ngata (if athletic and/or Samoan/Tongan/Hawaiian, basically from any of the Pacific islands)

Why don't analysts compare players to Pernell McPhee? Or Donald Penn? Or Isaac Sapoaga?

It's lazy and appeals to the lowest level of fandom. Hearing you are drafting a DE who compares to Kamerion Wimbley is no where near as appealing as hearing someone compares to JPP. Likewise if your team drafts a OG in the first then he better be compared to Steve Hutchinson
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Mike Mayock overuses every cliche that is on that list. I think Mike Mayock is the most overrated draft analyzer ever. I'd rather listen to my 10 year old brother talk about the draft than listen to Mike Mayock.
If Mike Mayock is bad, then what does that make Charles Davis?
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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[quote=PossibleCabbage;3253788]But it's the height of laziness to say "Bryan Bulaga will have to move to Guard since Robert Gallery had to move to guard" or "Aaron Rodgers won't be a good quarterback since Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller couldn't cut it as pro QBs."

I agree that OT's drafted from the same school won't necessarily follow the same pattern especially since Ferentz has produced other OLmen who made it in the pros. However, if a college HC has multiple failures at a position, then scouts and GM's will downgrade them on draft day. It is just human nature for GM's to minimize their risks, hence the huge drop for Rodgers on draft day after being projected to go 1/2.

IMO, Rodgers was very lucky he got drafted by Green Bay and got to sit 2 years. They were able to correct a lot of his throwing motion problems during that time that he had learned from Tedford. If he had been thrown to the wolves out of college, he might have struggled some.

Don't underestimate the previous success patterns of a long term college HC, GM's and scouts do take it seriously.
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Arrowin View Post
Mike Mayock overuses every cliche that is on that list. I think Mike Mayock is the most overrated draft analyzer ever. I'd rather listen to my 10 year old brother talk about the draft than listen to Mike Mayock.
Don't expect your ranking to increase any time soon with that attitude.
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Every player who is inexperienced is 'raw'.
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:40 PM    (permalink
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Every player who is inexperienced is 'raw'.
Aren't "raw" and "inexperienced" just synonyms? Could you explain the distinction?
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Old 01-23-2013, 08:31 PM    (permalink
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Raw referring to their skill set, inexperienced referring to their playing experience.
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Old 01-23-2013, 08:52 PM    (permalink
dolphinfan2k5
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This thread is stupid. Clichés don't just come out of nowhere. I don't disagree with everything you are saying, because obviously some people overuse certain things, but that is a universal truth, it would happen regardless of the subject.

And I don't see how you can deem the adjective "safe" as unusable, because that discredits any amount of risk involved with a prospect, and that is ignorant. You can't say that a player like Matt Jones or Pat White has the same level of risk as a prospect as someone like Aaron Curry, even if their career paths ended in similar fashions. That's taking an isolated viewpoint. If you track players considered to be "high risk" and "safe" over the history of the entire draft, I will bet you that players generally considered to be safe have longer careers on average than players considered high risk. Using one situation as an example his such complete ********. Outliers exist in everything. So defining a prospect as "safe" is completely reasonable and completely intelligent, because risk is a part of the draft, and risk can estimated and tracked.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:04 PM    (permalink
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Aren't "raw" and "inexperienced" just synonyms? Could you explain the distinction?
Maybe this should be the draft pet peeve thread. It's not you specifically but unfortunately too many people make the same connection you just made.

'Raw' refers to players who lacks technique and awareness/understanding (but usually implies a player has quality physical tools as well). Being relatively new to a position or even new to football doesn't mean a player can't be technically sound and can't have good football savvy. For example, I see people calling Lane Johnson 'raw' because he hasn't been playing OT for very long and he's proven throughout the season and throughout this week especially that his technique is further along than some of these guys who have been playing offensive line since Pop Warner.
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Old 01-24-2013, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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"Not flashy but gets the job done"

Please tell me about those flashy offensives linemen.
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Old 01-24-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TACKLE View Post
Maybe this should be the draft pet peeve thread. It's not you specifically but unfortunately too many people make the same connection you just made.

'Raw' refers to players who lacks technique and awareness/understanding (but usually implies a player has quality physical tools as well). Being relatively new to a position or even new to football doesn't mean a player can't be technically sound and can't have good football savvy. For example, I see people calling Lane Johnson 'raw' because he hasn't been playing OT for very long and he's proven throughout the season and throughout this week especially that his technique is further along than some of these guys who have been playing offensive line since Pop Warner.
My issue with people calling prospects as raw is they see it as all the same. There are many different techniques which can be used even by players of the same position.

For example, JPP was described as raw. Ziggy Ansah has been described as raw. JPP was raw in the sense it should be used, Ansah is not. However people automatically compare these two guys
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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"Every QB who is drafted the year after a generational class is not a good QB prospect."
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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i racial profile a lot, especially when it comes to defensive players. White DL and OLBs are so easy too though. hate every white WR is welker though
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
MaxV
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If the players came from the same coaching staffs then it does make some sense, especially when you see consistent busts, like the dreaded Florida State Defensive End or Penn State Running Back. For example I have seen Bjoern Werner referred to as the classic FSU DE, when he has no resemblance or ties to any of the players who were busts before him.
The reason for that one is very simple. JoePa rode those talented RBs into the ground before they were drafted.

Larry Johnson was an exception because he only started his senior season.
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