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Old 01-31-2013, 10:16 PM    (permalink
Ozzy
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Default 2012 NFL Draft: Lessons to Learn

One year does not make an athletes career, but looking back just on this past years draft here are a few hits and misses not including the obvious top 10 selections in the 1st round. The main theme to me is teams over drafted pass rushers, it is ridiculous the amount picked high in the draft that did not turn out as of yet.



Potential misses currently,

Dontari Poe 11th pick Kansas City- never liked the pick, and compare him now to the NTs in this up coming draft, I would take four players arguably over Poe but yes he is still a damn good athlete.

Michael Floyd 13th pick Arizona -good pick but still raw as a receiver and has yet to be as elite as they thought

Melvin Ingram 18th pick San Diego- who did not like him coming out, yet did not do so hot like so many other San Diego 3/4 OLBs

Shea McClellin 19th pick Chicago- did not like the pick, and compare this kid to defensive ends in the up coming draft, again I would take arguably 10 DE's in this 2013 draft over this guy

A. J. Jenkins 30th pick San Fran- talk about a non factor, strange moves by the 49ers at times but in some ways shows how deep they really are

Andre Branch 38th pick Jacksonville-picked to high I thought and again a pass rusher

Tavon Wilson 48th pick New England-never liked that pick but not a ton to choose from, still would have gone with Iloka but he does not fit their mold, he fits the Eugene Wilson wish he could be mold

Isaiah Pead 50th pick St. Louis

Vinny Curry 59th pick Phili-great talent, really dropped in the draft and apparently there is a reason why






Major hits all of these players, and really all going into the draft had a defined skill and ability. This one was a speedy linebacker or this one was a pass catching tight end. Each had there place and some had great success in their rookie year.

Bruce Irvin 15th pick Seattle-everyone thought he was a little over drafted at that point after such a down year, but killed it all season as a pass rusher and is the one that actually turned out

Harrison Smith 29th pick Minnesota-played great safety for them, easily the best in the class

Doug Martin 31st pick Tampa-stud running back solid pickup

Janoris Jenkins 39th pick St. Louis-in many ways was really always the most talented corner in the draft outside of his off the field stuff

Bobby Wagner 47th pick Seattle-athletic and stole the show on defense

Lavonte David 58th pick Tampa-great season for a great player

Kelechi Osemele 60th pick Baltimore

Dwayne Allen 64th pick Indy-shocked he dropped that far, but showed his worth and athletic ability

Russell Wilson 75th pick Seattle- could Seattle have drafted any better?

TY Hilton 92nd pick Indy

Chris Givens 96th pick St. Louis

Josh Norman 143rd pick Carolina- very impressive pickup late

Vick Ballard 170th pick Indy

Alfred Morris 173rd pick Washington- really great get, what a find for them and had a great rookie year

Blair Walsh 175th pick Minnesota- everyone liked him, did not like the senior year but wow what a rookie season

Mike Harris 176th pick Jacksonville- always liked him, fine tackler and played well, should not have dropped that far

Alfonzo Dennard 224th pick New England- loved his coverage ability an dis showed at times this season

J. R. Sweezy 225th pick Seattle-made a position switch and played well

Bryce Brown 229th pick Phili- very surprised this worked out, speedy player and is getting a chance in the NFL

Vontaze Burfict (Undrafted) Cinci- who would have thought, that guy being so good as a rookie, but on the field really he always was that good just the nose about his issue was the problem




Just a quick looking back, sure there are some I missed, hard to measure so early but interesting to see after one year. Nice to see that in the 2013 draft the defensive lineman are actually legit players and should be very productive. Such a deep class at DT, NT and DE. And the fact of a tight end dropping or being picked late and being possibly just as good if not better than the ones before them, that is a real possiblity in this tight end class I feel. A lot of very good players and little separate the 2nd tier guys from the 3rd tier guys.



Also do not underestimate linebackers that can run. So watch out for Alec Ogletree, Arthur Brown and Jon Bostic. And in terms of elite level pass rushers I would put these guys at the top of that list. Ezekiel Ansah, Bjoern Werner and Cornellius Carradine, those guys all have size and can crush the pocket and defend the run if need be as well.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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I hate to admit it because I hated the pick at the time value wise, but Gilmore was thrown into the fire early and often against all #1 WR. Got burnt and beat up a few times, but by the end of year was grading out as a very good CB.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:10 PM    (permalink
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Poe played pretty well for a rookie NT. I like what I've seen in him so far.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:11 PM    (permalink
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One decent lesson: Red Flags be damned!

Granted a one year sample isn't conclusive, but the track record speaks.

Janoris Jenkins, showed that he was worth the clean slate so far for a second rounder.

Dennard's legal trouble was far outweighed by his value in the seventh. He played nicely as a nickel or spot starter. That was his ceiling and perceived value before the red flag.

Free waver on Burfict? Cinci got a coup big time.

As for pass rushers, this is NFL draft canon and I don't seeing changing like ever. Most teams try a multitude of options and see what works. It is like QB, you may get a stud later, but that is somewhat luck. There is no greater crime than not trying to get a good one.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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So I guess the lesson here is try to be the Seahawks?
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:19 PM    (permalink
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Pass rushers usually take a season or 2 to learn the nuances of how to pass rush effectively. It is ridiculous to expect pass rushers to come into pro ball and dominate immediately.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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cant be too hard on floyd, larry fitzgerald looked PAINFULLY average in that offense with horrific QB play, plus whisenhunt HATES rookies 95% of the time
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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So I guess the lesson here is try to be the Seahawks?
If you want the entire league to cheat I guess!
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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as pete carroll says "stop doing heroin!"
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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I loved the Irvin and McClellin picks, especially going to teams that actually know how to use them.

Not an Ingram fan, I can't recall him winning on the edge a single time in college. All of his production came stunting inside against unathletic guards. Ingram is lucky Clowney showed up and allowed the SCAR staff to use him creatively, because he's not a true edge rusher at all.

I had Janoris and Fletcher Cox as top 5 players in the draft and feel great about that.

I was way too high on Stephen Hill, and it's taught me a sample size lesson.

I hated the Jaguars moving up for Blackmon. Or picking him in the top 10 in general. But he was solid. I'm indifferent on this pick now. I also hated the Branch and Anger picks. Basically everything about their draft. **** that team.

I had Tannehill over RG3. I knew this would make me look stupid in year one, but I still feel pretty good about this long term.

I was way too high on both Upshaw, Massie, and Iloka. Conversely, way too low on Mark Barron and Cordy Glenn.

I thought KC should have traded in front of Miami for Tannehill (I desperately wanted them to trade with Jax), but I didn't mind the Poe pick. The problem is that he's not a true 0-tech, and the longer they keep trying to develop him there, the longer it will take for him to have an impact. He's a 1-gap player who could be an amazing 1 or 3 tech. 0-tech is arguably the hardest and slowest developing position in the NFL besides QB.

Not a Michael Floyd fan. He labors in his movement. Hated the Cards pick of him bc he's basically a homeless man's Fitz. Too much redundancy at WR.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Was Stephen Hill not good this season? I loved him. Would've been fine with him going top 10 lol.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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If you want the entire league to cheat I guess!
Serious question. How did Seattle cheat? Because their CBs took adderall, along with half the league?
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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Pass rushers usually take a season or 2 to learn the nuances of how to pass rush effectively. It is ridiculous to expect pass rushers to come into pro ball and dominate immediately.
Or more likely, it was a painfully obvious bad class for pass rushers...
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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Man, the only lesson one can learn from the scenarios you presented is the oldest one, which is the draft comes down to a crap shoot in the end.

Having said, I think you are severely overrating Irvings performance. He was not nearly as good without Clemons on the field. Having said that, I still didn't mind the gamble for Seattle. Finally, if there was one player I was the MOST right on, it was Richard Sherman. The first time I saw him play I knew he's be great. He is an Al Harris clone.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:46 PM    (permalink
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cant be too hard on floyd, larry fitzgerald looked PAINFULLY average in that offense with horrific QB play, plus whisenhunt HATES rookies 95% of the time
Agreed, and I'd add that Floyd is far from "raw."
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Old 02-01-2013, 02:02 PM    (permalink
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Don't nesecarily know how all of these guys have actually looked, but yeah.

Guys I was really high on:

Lavonte David (easy first round pick)
Shea McCellin (wanted him on the Packers sooooo bad)
Nick Perry
Doug Martin
Janoris Jenkins (definitely worth the risk in mid first round)
Stephen Hill (#1 receiver, future HOF)
Trumaine Johnson (liked his size/speed combination)
Russell Wilson
Jonathan Massaquoi
Terrell Manning

Guys I didn't like:

Justin Blackmon (thought he was very average for a guy going top 5)
Dontari Poe (thought he looked good in shorts but no where else)
Fletcher Cox
Melvin Ingram (was like my #1 on my 'going to bust' list)
David Wilson (learnt that athleticism may not be everything, but it's a hell of a lot)
Andre Brach (hated him so much)
Vinny Curry
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Old 02-02-2013, 12:30 AM    (permalink
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You missed "Casey Hayward" in your big hits. Taken later than Janoris Jenkins, and a better player as well.

Throwing at Hayward resulted in a 23.5 passer rating for opposing QBs, by far the lowest mark for any CB in the league, let alone rookies, 26 passes defensed to boot.

In retrospect, should have gone in the first. Got passed on 61 times, twice by the team that ended up taking him. In retrospect, ridiculous.

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Old 02-02-2013, 01:25 AM    (permalink
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Not enough Coples or Barron.
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Old 02-02-2013, 05:28 AM    (permalink
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I feel like players that were injured (including ones with no injury history) got the short end of the stick by you. Chandler Jones flat beasted for the first few weeks, but then hurt his ankle and was limited. He was still better than the other DEs that NE could put on the field, though. He was basically lost for the season after a second ankle injury, even though he never went on IR.

I'd also like to take the time to beat my chest some more and throw in the name Kirk Cousins. He was really good in his two major appearances due to RG3s injuries. I believe he would go #1 overall in a class like this. Being blunt, I have no idea what people were watching when they were watching his film at MSU.
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:17 AM    (permalink
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Tavon Wilson may have been a reach, but he did end up with four interceptions and two fumble recoveries this year, making four starts. I'd imagine that he outperformed pretty much everyone's expectations, especially my own. He had some problems with his instincts in deep coverage, but there's some potential for him to develop into a starter at strong safety eventually.
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Old 02-02-2013, 06:53 AM    (permalink
Ozzy
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descendency I feel like players that were injured (including ones with no injury history) got the short end of the stick by you. Chandler Jones flat beasted for the first few weeks, but then hurt his ankle and was limited. He was still better than the other DEs that NE could put on the field, though. He was basically lost for the season after a second ankle injury, even though he never went on IR.

I'd also like to take the time to beat my chest some more and throw in the name Kirk Cousins. He was really good in his two major appearances due to RG3s injuries. I believe he would go #1 overall in a class like this. Being blunt, I have no idea what people were watching when they were watching his film at MSU.
I agree, Jones was pretty solid at times this year and kind of was forgotten because of injuries. That is why I did not include him in the list of defensive lineman that did not play all that well in terms of production. Still was based on need and in the NFL you need pass rushers so you take risks to get them and gamble some times. Jones I agree was a good player, but maybe thought he would be, he was a monster on Syracuse before he came out.


And Cousins I always liked, but hard to see his future and what it is as long as he is a backup in Washingtion. Loved him on Michigan State though and oddly enough, I hope he gets off Washington so he gets a chance to play.

Seriously doubt anyone does the same thing, pick two rookie quarterbacks, but makes sense why they did it because Cousins is such a fine player.



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PossibleCabbage You missed "Casey Hayward" in your big hits. Taken later than Janoris Jenkins, and a better player as well.

Throwing at Hayward resulted in a 23.5 passer rating for opposing QBs, by far the lowest mark for any CB in the league, let alone rookies, 26 passes defensed to boot.

In retrospect, should have gone in the first. Got passed on 61 times, twice by the team that ended up taking him. In retrospect, ridiculous.
That is an impressive statistic, and he was pretty productive that is for sure. But like any rookie, most can have one good season just ask Travis Prentice. The real question is can you keep it up and stay improving.



A guy for this up coming draft that comes to mind is Devin Taylor, a lot of people are not real high on the kid but he can play. And reminds me of a Carlos Dunlap, Ray Edwards and Michael Johnson defensive ends that dropped in the draft but were very talented coming out. Sure some questioned their motor or what have you but all did well for themselves and I see the same from Taylor possibly when he gets in the league.
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Old 02-02-2013, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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Isn't a bit too early for this? Most rookies don't make immediate impacts. And a few shine early and disappear off the face of the earth.
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Old 02-02-2013, 10:36 AM    (permalink
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Poe played pretty well for a rookie NT. I like what I've seen in him so far.
I will take the word of people that didn't watch him play thank you.
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Old 02-02-2013, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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It was popular to hate Tannehill, so I guess nobody wants to talk about him since he showed promise as a rookie.
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Old 02-02-2013, 12:10 PM    (permalink
SchizophrenicBatman
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This is like the one draft I would have killed

Loved Irvin, loved Janoris (STILL don't understand how he fell to the 2nd round...oh no, an NFL player smokes weed? Alert the media!), would have taken Russ because I'm a big homer, thought Dwayne Allen was the best TE in the draft...Dennard.

How did Shea McClellin go in the first round? That never made sense to me.
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