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Old 02-01-2013, 01:32 AM    (permalink
Lil Quip
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
I said the Eagles need O-line help and I doubt anyone disagrees with that.
Needing help on the OL and spending a top five pick on an elite LT are two very very different things.

This train of thought is becoming eerily similar to the Joeckel BPA vs. Geno for the chiefs. Jason Peters was considered an elite LT before last season. Some argued less than ONE year ago he was the best LT in the league. I will put on my 'not a doctor' cap here. Not sure how long it takes to come back 100% from an achilles, if you can, if rupturing it twice was somewhat redundant, etc. That being said, he hurt it last last may. Given good rehab, which didn't work out last time, he has a bit over a year to recover.
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Old 02-01-2013, 04:11 AM    (permalink
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or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).
In general the league wants safeties to be able to cover man to man these days - so Vaccaro being superb in press man coverage means he's a top 10 lock for me. That was the question with Barron - it certainly isn't with Vaccaro.
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Old 02-01-2013, 04:25 AM    (permalink
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Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.
100% agree. I'm a Jags fan and am getting worried about so many people mocking Werner to us. I wouldn't be Blaine Gabbert if we took him, but I'd certainly be !!

The other thing that I questioned with Werner is his lack of ability to set an edge in the run game. There was an FSU fan on here who disagreed...

I saw 8 of FSU's games this season and I would say only the Florida game performance came close to me thinking he's a top 15 talent. From tape alone (I'll build in Combine measurements) I have a 2nd round grade on him. I'd take Carradine ahead of him even with the injury. Jenkins might even be better - might be quicker off the edge, although a little one dimensional perhaps.

But lots of questions with Werner. Why nothing in the Bowl game - Northern Illinois!!! I know the QB was mobile, but still he did nothing. Why the middle part of the season with poor production? The 1.5 sacks against the U were only because Seantrel Henderson was tired and outside of those he was getting shut out. How long are his arms? What's that 10 yard split time going to be? Can he change direction?
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:24 AM    (permalink
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Interesting idea, this is a quick few thoughts I had on the top 10 picks. And will be interesting to see what happens with the QB's, mid season for sure Barkley and Smith would be in this mix but they both played so poorly on the field to end the season. And Barkley with his injury, both really could not be going into the draft any worse, only thing that could save that is if they work out well. But Barkley would not surprise me to see him succeed well in the NFL after being a late 1st or 2nd round pick.



1. Chiefs- Chance Warmack OG Alabama: Joeckel makes the most sense, but they have two tackles already, and the interior line needs the most help. Plus they could get Glennon, Bray, Manuel or Landry Jones possibly in the 2nd round or later anyway.


2. Jaguars- Star Lotulelei DT Utah: Help that defensive front four round out, and no he is not only a 3/4 NT, and it works especially now since they have Babin at DE.


3. Raiders- Alec Ogletree LB Georgia: A risky pick but it is the Raiders, that defensive linebacker core is a mess, and Ogletree could fill many needs. Blitz linebacker, coverage linebacker, speed linebacker and just a general overall athlete at the position.


4. Eagles- Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M: Easy pick if he is around, and is there any question that the Eagles pick an offensive lineman after this past season?


5. Lions- Barkevious Mingo DE/LB LSU: Could got a few different ways, but a pass rusher to dominate with the help of those great DTs would be nice, and Mingo could do that or could transition to a solid outside linebacker also.


6. Browns- Bjoern Werner DE Florida State: Get another pass rusher to help with the 4/3 transition, and gain a lot of depth.


7. Cardinals- Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia: Could easily go with a quarterback but I expect them to bring in a veteran for that. Jones fills a need as a rush OLB with great production and toughness.


8. Bills- Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU: Even though they have other needs at receiver, Ansah could help make them one of the best front fours in football defensively.


9. Jets- Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio State: Could got QB but not sound in that choice with the ones around. Hankins could finish the chance in their 3/4 front and possibly make them one of the best groups in the NFL as a 3/4 front, could go John Jenkins as well, ideally would want a OLB but none fit the bill at this spot.


10. Titans- D.J. Fluker OT/OG Alabama: Could be a game changer for them, huge run blocker and could instantly make them a tougher physical running team, would be a nice pick I feel.
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Old 02-01-2013, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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I'm assuming the "swirling winds" argument??
Partly that. Partly that he's built for a (traditional) WCO. I doubt Buffalo will use that.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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Here is my top ten mock at the moment in whick I offer what could be the deciding factors in each of the selection:

1. Chiefs- QB Geno Smith

Deciding factor:

- I simply can't see Reed waiting for next year to get his QB. He knows how McKnabb allowed him to have a long tenure with the Eagles.

2. Jaguars- DE Bjoren Werner

Deciding factor:

Jaguars have an abysmal pass rush. They run a 4-3 defense and Werner is the best PURE 4-3 end. The fact that he played his college ball in state doesn't hurt.

3. Raiders- DT Star Lotulelei

Deciding factor:

Seymour is gone. The Raiders must keep FA Desmond Bryant and Kelly is highly overpaid and could be a cap casualty. They may lose not just one, but two starting DTs.

4. Eagles- OT Luke Joeckel

Deciding factor:

Eagles are in dire need of O-line help and the best OL prospect will be available when they pick.

5. Lions- CB Dee Millner

Yes, the Lions need some DE help, but it's a deep DE class. They need to add top tier talent to the back end of their defense if they ever hope to ascend to one of the NFL's top rated defenses. Plus, do they want top money tied up in three defensive lineman? Can't see it.

6. Browns- WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Deciding factor:

New DC Ray Horton has gone out of his way to talk about how he loves the versatility of the defensive players on the team and how he wants to play multiple fronts. Could be coach speak; however, the Browns have not had a blue chip WR since....since....wow, have they every had one? This may be strange pick at the moment, but I believe that Patterson is going to gain the reputations that he can be a difference maker on the NFL level and will thus move up the rankings. This is and offensive league, and the bottom line is that the Browns need playmakers to compete and they need to establish a pecking order among their WRs. They have the rest of the draft to address defense and don't be surprised if Horton targets some acquisitions from his former team, the Cardinals.

7. Cardinals- OT Eric Fisher

Deciding factor:

It's no secret that the Cardinal's offensive line is in shambles. They would like to improve upon the QB cluster they have, but there is simply no one available at the #7 pick that comes close to warranting a QB selection. They will take the building block while they are in position to.

8. Bills- QB Matt Barkley

Deciding factor:

Because the Bills have been outspoken about their desire to add a new signal caller, I think they could over reach for Barkley here. He's not that good IMO, but teams will have a new appreciation for Smith and Barkley after see the Senior Bowl QBs perform.

9. Jets- DE Ziggy Ansah

Deciding factor:

The Jets will be a in a great position with a number of pass rushers on the board, so it's going to come down to which one Ryan falls in love with. I think the winner will be Ansah. I think Ryan will see true star potential in Ansah and us him as a model of what he wants the team to look like under the second half of his tenure.

10. Titans- OG Chance Warmack

Deciding factor:

Jake Locker is who we thought he was. Well, some of us. The only way to salvage his career is for him to rely more heavily on the run and once again become a physical team. Also, the O-line in general is extremely old and needs some new blood. Demontre Moore is tempting here, but they still have money tied up in Morgan and Wimbley.
Just a few comments: Joeckel is the highest rated prospect in this year's draft by a mile, there is no way he gets out of the top 3 picks. He is the BPA in this year's draft, period.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a wonderful talent but at this moment, he catches everything against his body and receivers that do this don't last long in the NFL because they tend to drop a lot of balls. I cannot see him going top 10 unless he demonstrates between now and the draft, that he has corrected this serious flaw.

People who get carried away by an All Star game performance, where teams are playing only a shell of a real game offense and where scouts and GM's don't even bother to stay and watch because they know performances are marred by the simplicity of game plans, need a reality check. Ziggy Ansuh has zero chance of getting drafted in the top 15, never mind the top 10.

You say, the poor performance of the QB's who attended the Senior Bowl will make teams appreciate more the talents of Smith and Barkley doesn't necessarily follow. Everybody is assuming that because a lot of QB's got picked the last few years and that there are a lot of QB needy teams, it automatically means a lot of QB's will get drafted early this year. I don't happen to think that is a given and people may be shocked on draft day when there isn't a huge run on untalented QB's.
Too many teams, the last 3 years have had success drafting QB's beyond round 1 and a lot of teams may well gamble on round 2 QB's rather than make a mighty reach in round 1.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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Just a few comments: Joeckel is the highest rated prospect in this year's draft by a mile, there is no way he gets out of the top 3 picks. He is the BPA in this year's draft, period.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a wonderful talent but at this moment, he catches everything against his body and receivers that do this don't last long in the NFL because they tend to drop a lot of balls. I cannot see him going top 10 unless he demonstrates between now and the draft, that he has corrected this serious flaw.

People who get carried away by an All Star game performance, where teams are playing only a shell of a real game offense and where scouts and GM's don't even bother to stay and watch because they know performances are marred by the simplicity of game plans, need a reality check. Ziggy Ansuh has zero chance of getting drafted in the top 15, never mind the top 10.

You say, the poor performance of the QB's who attended the Senior Bowl will make teams appreciate more the talents of Smith and Barkley doesn't necessarily follow. Everybody is assuming that because a lot of QB's got picked the last few years and that there are a lot of QB needy teams, it automatically means a lot of QB's will get drafted early this year. I don't happen to think that is a given and people may be shocked on draft day when there isn't a huge run on untalented QB's.
Too many teams, the last 3 years have had success drafting QB's beyond round 1 and a lot of teams may well gamble on round 2 QB's rather than make a mighty reach in round 1.
- Joeckel is not the #1 ranked player in everyone's ranking system. Furthermore, you said he would go in the top 3. What's the big leap between three and 4?

- You comment about Ansah is simply wrong. Of course there is a chance he goes in the top 15, that's why several mock drafts have him doing so.

- I don't understand your conflict with regard to my takes on QBs. I never suggested there were many teams who needed QBs this year in the first place. However, in terms of the first round, teams with medicore QBs like Buffalo would be far more likely to take a QB in the first round if the QB crop was better.

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Old 02-01-2013, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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How so? In 1999, Reid was a rookie HC and McNabb was the team's #1 pick. Reid is in is first year with the Chefs, their #1 need clearly is QB.

Also, many people thought McNabb was picked too high, but obvious Andy didn't care because he knew he was right about the pick. So I don't know if I'd call it a connection, but the situtions somewhat parallel each other.
Reid went to BYU, so did Ziggy Ansah. Therefore Ziggy Ansah will go number one. That's more of a connection.

The main difference between Geno and McNabb is that was a great QB year and this is an awful QB year.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Reid went to BYU, so did Ziggy Ansah. Therefore Ziggy Ansah will go number one. That's more of a connection.

The main difference between Geno and McNabb is that was a great QB year and this is an awful QB year.
Okay, that makes absolute NO sense whatsoever. Your attempt as sarcasm falls way short as a result. Oh, and by the way, the ony one of the five first round QBs that really panned out was the one Reid selected and developed.

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Old 02-01-2013, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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Oh, and by the way, the ony one of the five first round QBs that really panned out was the one Reid selected and developed.
The key to that statement is that Reid selected McNabb. It's possible he doesn't select Geno at 1 just cause he's the only QB with even close to a rd 1 grade. We shall see.
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Old 02-01-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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3. Raiders- Alec Ogletree LB Georgia: A risky pick but it is the Raiders, that defensive linebacker core is a mess, and Ogletree could fill many needs. Blitz linebacker, coverage linebacker, speed linebacker and just a general overall athlete at the positio.
Seriously? People are still using this crap as draft analysis?
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Old 02-01-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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I do think the Raiders will do something unexpected and I do think Ogletree is a good fit for them, but it just isn't enough value.

I have a sneaking suspicion they trade the 3 pick for both of St.Louis' picks. St.Louis gets Joeckel who they desperately need and Oakland gets more depth, which they need. They can grab a couple strong defenders, possibly including Ogletree.
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:07 PM    (permalink
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Seriously? People are still using this crap as draft analysis?
Seriously. Even though Davis is dead, that's the comment.
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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Seriously? People are still using this crap as draft analysis?
This is all just semantics, what some call risky others call unorthodox. And Ogletree would be a risk to some considering the high pick but talent wise I think he has as much talent as any athlete in the draft. But they already wasted a high pick on a inside linebacker so maybe they will not "risk" doing that again. Regardless I personally feel that position really needs to be addressed but like others have said offensive line would be an easy fill in as well and they might end up doing that.

Fact is the Raiders over history have been one of the most unconventional drafting organizations in the NFL. They always make surprising moves come draft day, sure that might change but then again it might not.
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Old 02-01-2013, 07:58 PM    (permalink
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I do think the Raiders will do something unexpected and I do think Ogletree is a good fit for them, but it just isn't enough value.

I have a sneaking suspicion they trade the 3 pick for both of St.Louis' picks. St.Louis gets Joeckel who they desperately need and Oakland gets more depth, which they need. They can grab a couple strong defenders, possibly including Ogletree.
I'd be good with that. Give me any combo of the following:

D.J. Fluker
Sam Montgomery
Alec Ogletree
Jonathan Cooper
Jonathan Hankins
Keenan Allen
Kevin Minter
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:01 PM    (permalink
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This is all just semantics, what some call risky others call unorthodox. And Ogletree would be a risk to some considering the high pick but talent wise I think he has as much talent as any athlete in the draft. But they already wasted a high pick on a inside linebacker so maybe they will not "risk" doing that again. Regardless I personally feel that position really needs to be addressed but like others have said offensive line would be an easy fill in as well and they might end up doing that.

Fact is the Raiders over history have been one of the most unconventional drafting organizations in the NFL. They always make surprising moves come draft day, sure that might change but then again it might not.
"The Raiders" were Al Davis. Al Davis is dead. Being that he is dead, he is not longer making decisions regarding the Raiders.
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Old 02-01-2013, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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I do think the Raiders will do something unexpected and I do think Ogletree is a good fit for them, but it just isn't enough value.

I have a sneaking suspicion they trade the 3 pick for both of St.Louis' picks. St.Louis gets Joeckel who they desperately need and Oakland gets more depth, which they need. They can grab a couple strong defenders, possibly including Ogletree.
Yeah, but why not trade up for Fisher who would cost less or gamble and take Lane Johnson and use the other pick on a WR. I cannot see them giving up extra picks at this stage of their development. Just too many holes to fill.
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Old 02-02-2013, 12:20 AM    (permalink
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Seriously? People are still using this crap as draft analysis?
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Seriously. Even though Davis is dead, that's the comment.
I agree. Every draft up to 2012 needs to be thrown out the window.
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Old 02-02-2013, 09:59 AM    (permalink
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3. Raiders- DT Star Lotulelei

Deciding factor:

Seymour is gone. The Raiders must keep FA Desmond Bryant and Kelly is highly overpaid and could be a cap casualty. They may lose not just one, but two starting DTs.

.
It'll cost the Raiders 500k more than his annual salary each of the next two years if they cut Tommy Kelly than just keeping him- He restructured last year- Only way Tommy Kelly will not be playing in Oakland is if they somehow manage to trade him and a team picks up his contract- I seriously doubt that happens-Oaklands very high on DT Bilikudi- however, it would not shock me if they did draft Star and paired him next to Kelly
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Old 02-04-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, but why not trade up for Fisher who would cost less or gamble and take Lane Johnson and use the other pick on a WR. I cannot see them giving up extra picks at this stage of their development. Just too many holes to fill.
Because Fisher is likely to go one spot after that at #4 IMO. Why take the chance? Bradford is the type of QB that NEEDS a top tier LT.
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Old 02-04-2013, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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It'll cost the Raiders 500k more than his annual salary each of the next two years if they cut Tommy Kelly than just keeping him- He restructured last year- Only way Tommy Kelly will not be playing in Oakland is if they somehow manage to trade him and a team picks up his contract- I seriously doubt that happens-Oaklands very high on DT Bilikudi- however, it would not shock me if they did draft Star and paired him next to Kelly
There is not indication that they are considering Bilikudi as a starter after limited playing tim this year. The guy who has played well enough to start is Desmond Bryant.

As far as Kelly, you have to start somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he is cut regardless.
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Old 02-04-2013, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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I'd be ok with Bilukidi as a starter but I am probably biased since I really like him
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Old 02-04-2013, 01:11 PM    (permalink
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I'd be ok with Bilukidi as a starter but I am probably biased since I really like him
I like him as well, but there is no way I think he is ready for that. I'd rather have Star, eat the cap hit from cutting Kelly and have a nice DT rotation with Bryant and Bilukidi.
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Old 02-04-2013, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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I like him as well, but there is no way I think he is ready for that. I'd rather have Star, eat the cap hit from cutting Kelly and have a nice DT rotation with Bryant and Bilukidi.
I'd be more than OK with that. Bottom line is: we have serious defensive needs. DL and DB in the worst way, oh and MIKE since McClain is a massive ******* turd lol
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