Alex Smith is a Chief

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by WCH

I mean, I agree that Smith has played very efficiently within that system since Harbaugh showed up. The thing is, he's going to be changing systems and he was downright disgusting the rest of his career. This isn't a guy who gradually improved throughout his career; this is a guy who was consistently one of the worst QBs in the NFL. He was a guy who wished he could claim to be a top-30 QB. He was just disgustingly terrible, every single season.

Right now he's got a very talented team and a great coach, so they've masked his flaws. Andy Reid might be able to do the same thing in KC. If he goes to Cleveland or Buffalo or Jacksonville or Arizona then he's probably going to go back to sucking.

When was this? Because he certainly wasn't an awful QB in 2009-2010 and he did not play in 2008. In 2006 he was not terrible, just slightly below average. And that was on a team with a bad offense around him and the worst defense in the league.

Alex Smith is actually a QB that has improved every season. Taking out 2007, where he only played three games while healthy, his passer rating has improved every year.

I think some of you are only remembering Smith's rookie year and judging him solely based on that, or at least allowing the memory of how awful he was that year to cloud his recent play. If you don't remember the rest of it that is okay. The 49ers were not a very interesting team during that period. They weren't awful but they weren't good. No one talks about mediocre teams. At least do yourselves a favor and look at Smith's career numbers before saying stuff like this, though.

[Caulibflower]

Alex Smith > Kyle Orton

[bucfan12]

I hope Alex smith comes to Tampa. We need consistency at qb.

[Ness]

Originally Posted by vidae

Smith is a massive upgrade over what we have, but I still don't think he's very good. If we signed Smith AND took a QB #1 overall I'd be fine with it, but I doubt Smith would be fine with it. And I doubt he'd be fine being a one year rental.

Well you don't have to draft a quarterback #1 overall to find your quarterback of the future. You can get someone in the second or third round. Smith is not very good of course. He wouldn't be a free agent if he was. Like I said Kansas City is going to have to deal with what is available at this point. I'd be surprised if any rookie taken in any round this year would explode like the big three we had this year right out of the gate. Someone like Smith or Fitzpatrick might give the Chiefs the best chance to win in 2012.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by 49erNation85

Yea probably I bet some where in his contract he will ask the Cheifs not to draft a QB if he goes there. Hard to say tho really. Just a thought.

He isn't big time enough to ask any team not to draft a rookie QB if he does that he will be returning to San Fran as the backup.

[stlouisfan37]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

Eli
Nick Foles
RGIII
Romo
Cutler
Rodgers
Stafford
Kaepnernick
Wilson
Ryan
Cam
Brees
Freeman
Brady
Peyton
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Flacco
Luck
Schaub

Those are all the qbs I would absolutely take over Alex Smith. 20 quarterbacks. I can make an argument for Tannehill, and Dalton but I won't bc they haven't shown enough upside yet.

But all the qbs listed above have either been established qbs who have clearly shown a level of competence at qb that's higher than Alex Smith, or up and coming qbs who I have no doubt will develop into quarterbacks better than Alex Smith.

This notion that Alex Smith is a top 15 qb is absolute nonsense. Just bc some qbs in this league are young doesn't mean they're not better than Smith. You would say Smith is better than Luck, RGIII, and Wilson? I sure as hell woudln't. He's not better than Cam either. Not even close. Not better than Kaep.

For ***** sake, he's not a good quarterback. Do we use our eyes anymore when we evaluate these guys?

Did you forget Sam Bradford, or would you really rather have Smith over him?

[WCH]

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

When was this? Because he certainly wasn't an awful QB in 2009-2010 and he did not play in 2008. In 2006 he was not terrible, just slightly below average. And that was on a team with a bad offense around him and the worst defense in the league.

Alex Smith is actually a QB that has improved every season. Taking out 2007, where he only played three games while healthy, his passer rating has improved every year.

I think some of you are only remembering Smith's rookie year and judging him solely based on that, or at least allowing the memory of how awful he was that year to cloud his recent play. If you don't remember the rest of it that is okay. The 49ers were not a very interesting team during that period. They weren't awful but they weren't good. No one talks about mediocre teams. At least do yourselves a favor and look at Smith's career numbers before saying stuff like this, though.

When was this? You're a stats guy. Go to footballoutsiders.com and check his DYAR and DVOA. Go ahead and look at his numbers.

I think the highest he ever ranked was 27th in either category until Harbaugh showed up. Football Outsiders also takes a much more methodologically sound approach than Burke and the other "stats guys." Objectively, Smith sucked in 2009 and 2010, and in every year before that.

But I'm guessing that these numbers don't tell the whole story?

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by stlouisfan37

Did you forget Sam Bradford, or would you really rather have Smith over him?

Sam Bradford is awful. Yes, Smith is a better option than him. BUST.

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by WCH

When was this? You're a stats guy. Go to footballoutsiders.com and check his DYAR and DVOA. Go ahead and look at his numbers.

I think the highest he ever ranked was 27th in either category until Harbaugh showed up. Football Outsiders also takes a much more methodologically sound approach than Burke and the other "stats guys." Objectively, Smith sucked in 2009 and 2010, and in every year before that.

But I'm guessing that these numbers don't tell the whole story?

Ugh. Don't even get me started on subjective statistics. Sacks and bad snaps count against a QB? Pass interferences drawn help their numbers? Awful. But, if you want to go by that,

Alex Smith > Jay Cutler
Kyle Orton was a top 15 QB from 2009-2010
Shaun Hill was a top 20 QB in 2010
Matt Cassel > Eli Manning in 2010
Philip Rivers was a top 7 QB last year

And Alex Smith is a top 15 QB over the last two seasons

[ViperVisor]

Originally Posted by WCH

When was this? You're a stats guy. Go to footballoutsiders.com and check his DYAR and DVOA. Go ahead and look at his numbers.

I think the highest he ever ranked was 27th in either category until Harbaugh showed up. Football Outsiders also takes a much more methodologically sound approach than Burke and the other "stats guys." Objectively, Smith sucked in 2009 and 2010, and in every year before that.

But I'm guessing that these numbers don't tell the whole story?

You obviously don't know what has been going on in this thread.

A segment are just saying 'Smith sucks'

Others are looking at the stats and giving context to stats with impressions of what they have seen in games as well.

And with your endorsement of this stat you have to defend the output it gives of Smith compared to other QB. It says Smith was 10 best QB when he played in 2012. Do you think he was? I'm guessing that number doesn't tell the whole story?

It is what some have being doing here. Like 'Smith gets a lot of stat boosts from YAC'. Partly true and I showed it wasn't extreme for him and obviously YAC help is true for almost everyone to different degrees.

That stat info has a nice summary that should be all pages.

Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates -- in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates.

Stats are a good jump start to a discussion and help frame things but they are far from being near to what they are worth in baseball.

[J-Mike88]

Alex Smith or Christian Ponder?
Grape Ape fans, would you trade Ponder (to Arizona or Buffalo or Cleveland) for Alex in a 3-way deal?

Ponder's value skyrocked when Joe Webb was on display in the WC game.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by J-Mike88

Alex Smith or Christian Ponder?
Grape Ape fans, would you trade Ponder (to Arizona or Buffalo or Cleveland) for Alex in a 3-way deal?

Ponder's value skyrocked when Joe Webb was on display in the WC game.

See I don't really blame Joe Webb for that game. If reports are true they gave him very few reps in practice trying to get the younger Ponder ready for the game. We've seen Joe Webb play very well when he's come in in the past.

[Ness]

Originally Posted by Brothgar

See I don't really blame Joe Webb for that game. If reports are true they gave him very few reps in practice trying to get the younger Ponder ready for the game. We've seen Joe Webb play very well when he's come in in the past.

Wait, when was this?

[thule]

Originally Posted by Brothgar

See I don't really blame Joe Webb for that game. If reports are true they gave him very few reps in practice trying to get the younger Ponder ready for the game. We've seen Joe Webb play very well when he's come in in the past.

Joe Webb shouldn't even be on a NFL roster as a QB. How can you get backup reps all year....do nothing but throw basic concepts all year and then get to the game and skip passes 5 yards in front of your WR or over shoot them by 5 yards. Or how about not taking a sack. Sure these things happen...but Webb has no business being a nfl signal caller after that game he showed in Green Bay. Joe Webb isn't even good enough to hold Ponders weak ass jock.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

THEY DID DO JUST AS GOOD. IT WAS THE CASE. Don't throw away the facts.

The explosive deep threat still isn't part of the game with Kaepernick playing.
He goes more intermediate than Smith did. That is why he was getting 2 more yards per completion.
But Smith was getting his completions at a higher rate so was moving the ball for scores just the same.
Smith was balanced better with the running game even though he himself only ran a little. He would give you the 2nd and 3 plays. Convert the 2nd and 5 plays kind of stuff more often than Kaepernick.

And Smith was on the bench cause of the concussion. Kept on the bench do to coach choice.

This THREAT nonsense.

2011 Eagles
1.96 Points Per Drive *11th best*

2011 49ers
1.93 Points Per Drive *12th best*


Kaepernick 9 games started.
13 TD passes 4 INTs.

Only had 183 yards in that 4 TD game @ NE before his last pass which was his longest play.

The TD pass to Crabtree that went 6 yards past the LOS where Crabtree caught and turned, the CB whiffed and so Crabtree ran 32 yards to the endzone.

Why Kaepernick is succeeding is he is playing closer to Alex Smith than a magical unicorn QB the media invents to fill air time.

He is keeping the INTs way down which is an extreme anomaly for a inexperienced QB.

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

And yet the offense, at least in the regular season, was slightly better with Smith. In the regular season, Smith was better than Kaepernick and the 49ers offense was better with Smith. Look at the numbers viper posted a few pages back.

Regardless, it is not like Kaepernick is some crappy QB. He was a 2nd round pick with a ceiling as high as any QB in the league. Kaepernick replacing him doesn't prove that Smith sucks, it proves that Kaepernick is good.



Its bad coaching because its bad coaching. Head coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary and the offensive coordinators were Jim Hostler and Jimmy Raye. If you want to try and make an argument for those not being awful coaches please go ahead and do so.



Because the 49ers never throw in the second half. Smith had six more attempts per game in the first half than in the second half this season. Over a season that works out to 100 pass attempts, he had 80 more first half pass attempts in the first half last year.

Look at some of the best QBs in the league this year. Rodgers had 28 more pass attempts in the first half, Peyton had 51, Brady had four, Ryan had 23. Brady, who attempted over 600 passes this year, only had three more first half pass attempts per game than Smith. Rodgers had two more, Flacco one more, Cutler actually had less.

Look at a QB who had a similar amount of attempts per game, Russell Wilson. Wilson had eight more pass attempts in the first half all year.

Do you think the 49ers should be passing the ball when they are up by a lot? When they were shutting out the Jets should they have been passing every down? When they built a big lead against the Packers and Lions and Cardinals should they have been airing it out downfield?

Smith's strength is playing well in the beginning of the game, or at least not turning the ball over. That allows the 49ers to jump out to a lead and that means they basically stop passing.

OK so I'm not going to try to go point by point on this we have to be arguing two different things because I can't see any way people would argue this. Regardless of what you think about Alex Smith he was the starter then he got injured after he was injured he did not get his job back when he was 100% healthy which means he was benched. So logically this means the offense must have reacted to Kaepernick better than Alex Smith otherwise once Smith is healthy he gets his job back period end of story. As far as first half attempts go I have no idea where you get this stat from but it also means that Smith was never forced to throw the ball like he would have to if he was on a team with a significantly worse defense.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by Ness

Wait, when was this?

He had a few decent games last season. The one that sticks out in my mind is that game against the Lions last season.

[stlouisfan37]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

Sam Bradford is awful. Yes, Smith is a better option than him. BUST.

Bradford will tear it up this year. He started turning the corner towards the end of 2012. You'll see:-)

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by Brothgar

OK so I'm not going to try to go point by point on this we have to be arguing two different things because I can't see any way people would argue this. Regardless of what you think about Alex Smith he was the starter then he got injured after he was injured he did not get his job back when he was 100% healthy which means he was benched. So logically this means the offense must have reacted to Kaepernick better than Alex Smith otherwise once Smith is healthy he gets his job back period end of story. As far as first half attempts go I have no idea where you get this stat from but it also means that Smith was never forced to throw the ball like he would have to if he was on a team with a significantly worse defense.

No one is denying he was benched, he clearly was. But the offense playing better with Kaepernick is a myth, at least until the playoff game against the Packers. The numbers prove it. The 49ers were averaging more yards per play, more yards, more plays, more ToP, a better third down %, etc. with Smith.

I mentioned the first half pass attempts to explain why he doesn't have many pass attempts overall. His pass attempts in the first half, when games are usually won or lost, are about the same as other QBs. Smith plays well enough, or at least not poorly enough, in the first half of games so he doesn't have to pass in the second half.

Can Smith throw the ball in the second half to mount a comeback if he has to? Maybe. He has not had to do it in the past couple of years, though. I personally wouldn't trust him to do it week in and week out. There are only a handful of active QBs who I can say I would feel like we have a chance to comeback from down 14+ in the second half. There is only one who I would feel that for when down 20+. Is it a knock on Smith that he can't continuously lead his team from behind? That is something elite QBs do and no one is arguing that he is elite. Smith has shown he can do it on occasion, though. He did have six 4th quarter comebacks last season, including a 20-point comeback at Philadelphia and obviously the divisional playoff game.

The fact is that every QB, outside of a handful of all-time greats, plays better when the situation around them is better. Smith has proven that he can play great in a great situation, he played great this year before getting injured. He has played in bad situations, too, and at least done okay. Okay would be a massive improvement over the QB play of the worst teams in the league. Put him on an average team, say the Browns, and they are contending for a playoff spot.

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by stlouisfan37

Bradford will tear it up this year. He started turning the corner towards the end of 2012. You'll see:-)

He struggled against the Bucs secondary. Come on dude. That right their makes the decision much easier to determine he;s awful.

[ChiFan24]

Originally Posted by J-Mike88

Alex Smith or Christian Ponder?
Grape Ape fans, would you trade Ponder (to Arizona or Buffalo or Cleveland) for Alex in a 3-way deal?

Ponder's value skyrocked when Joe Webb was on display in the WC game.

They both suck, but Smith is far better. I wouldn't trade a younger, cheaper, developing QB in Ponder for him though.

[J-Mike88]

I love Kaepernick and think the Niners are great.
I think CP is the real deal.

But part of my wonders....... there have been many times the Cheese defense makes people look like Hall of Famers. They often bring out the best in opponent QBs, WRs, RBs. The defense is soft.

I have a feeling that a real defense might bring him way down to Earth. I hope I'm right. I'd like to see a Ravens win.

[stlouisfan37]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

He struggled against the Bucs secondary. Come on dude. That right their makes the decision much easier to determine he;s awful.

He improved dramatically this season, and next year will be the first time in his entire career that he will have the same coordinator two years in a row. More importantly, he started taking ownership of his team and playing with a confidence I hadn't seen since he went pro. I know that I am in the minority on this, but I think Sam has a great career ahead of him.

[bigbluedefense]

I loved Bradford coming out but he has been disappointing. This is a make or break year for him.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by stlouisfan37

He improved dramatically this season, and next year will be the first time in his entire career that he will have the same coordinator two years in a row. More importantly, he started taking ownership of his team and playing with a confidence I hadn't seen since he went pro. I know that I am in the minority on this, but I think Sam has a great career ahead of him.

I have to agree. I think we are going to see Sam Bradford have a coming out party next season.

[stlouisfan37]

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

I loved Bradford coming out but he has been disappointing. This is a make or break year for him.

I agree...this year was a time for growth, next year we need results. We have seen the flashes, now its time for the fireworks.

For what it's worth, I am not just raw raw, he's my guy. I have been pretty critical of Bradford at times, especially in year 2. But I think he is finally at a place where the game has slowed somewhat, and he is starting to feel comfortable taking charge of a game.