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Old 02-02-2013, 11:23 PM    (permalink
Caulibflower
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Originally Posted by nepg View Post
You put a competent QB with a competent coaching staff into the situation in KC, where they have 3-4 (maybe even 5) receivers that are at least pretty good, a good OL, a great RB, and a good TE situation and there's low chance for failure.
This is exactly why I'd rather nab a QB at #33 if I'm the Chiefs. There's half a dozen who fit that description in this draft. I'm having a really hard time reconciling the fact that I'm in no way blown away by him as a prospect but think it makes sense for him to go first overall.

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Old 02-03-2013, 12:15 AM    (permalink
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This is exactly why I'd rather nab a QB at #33 if I'm the Chiefs. There's half a dozen who fit that description in this draft. I'm having a really hard time reconciling the fact that I'm in no way blown away by him as a prospect but think it makes sense for him to go first overall.
Not really. You know what the base player is when you draft Geno...it's just not clear what his potential is. With most of the others (aside from Barkley), you kind of have an idea of their potential, but have no idea where they're at going into the NFL.

It'd be a little different if Tyler Wilson didn't have serious health red flags (and didn't completely underwhelm in Mobile).
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Old 02-03-2013, 01:58 AM    (permalink
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This is exactly why I'd rather nab a QB at #33 if I'm the Chiefs. There's half a dozen who fit that description in this draft. I'm having a really hard time reconciling the fact that I'm in no way blown away by him as a prospect but think it makes sense for him to go first overall.
In a draft that is "weak" at QB, why take the 5th best one? Why not take the highest rated guy? Taking Joeckel (lol) or Star (nope) aren't going to impact the team as much as a QB would. I'd rather get the consensus #1 QB on most boards and see what you can do with him.
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Old 02-03-2013, 02:18 AM    (permalink
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Not really. You know what the base player is when you draft Geno...it's just not clear what his potential is. With most of the others (aside from Barkley), you kind of have an idea of their potential, but have no idea where they're at going into the NFL.

It'd be a little different if Tyler Wilson didn't have serious health red flags (and didn't completely underwhelm in Mobile).
You know, I think you're right. This is what I've come to think, too. I think you do at least know you've got a guy who can throw a good deep ball and keep his composure under pressure, and with what should again be a strong running game it is a good situation. You at least have that, and that's something.

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In a draft that is "weak" at QB, why take the 5th best one? Why not take the highest rated guy? Taking Joeckel (lol) or Star (nope) aren't going to impact the team as much as a QB would. I'd rather get the consensus #1 QB on most boards and see what you can do with him.
It's not that it's weak overall, it's that the top prospect might not be in the top 20 overall players to me, but there are still probably 5 in the top 50. I don't think they should take Joeckel either, and Star doesn't make much sense with them just drafting Dontari Poe. Maybe Star would be another Haloti Ngata. Don't need a pass rusher, don't need an offensive lineman, it's not going to be a running back or a cornerback... Still think someone like Cordarrelle Patterson could be a dark horse in this race pending combine results, but Geno does look like he should have the money on him right now.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:32 AM    (permalink
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In a draft that is "weak" at QB, why take the 5th best one? Why not take the highest rated guy? Taking Joeckel (lol) or Star (nope) aren't going to impact the team as much as a QB would. I'd rather get the consensus #1 QB on most boards and see what you can do with him.
I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:43 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
Qbs make more of an impact than LTs in the league.

Look at Andy Dalton and the Bungals.

Now with the Rookie wage scale, you can take more of a gamble. And if you are lucky you will hit gold right away or find **** right away and start over. If you are unlucky you'll be stuck with the trap qb, is showing promise and winning enough, but still bends you over and gives it to you.

Like with Gabbert, in less than 2 years they are able to move on from him. But say the Vikings, they are kind of stuck for at least another year, cause he just does enough to not blow, but it is somewhat obvious he is not it. There in lies that trap, do you stick it out another year or 2, and hope he gets better or cut your losses after next year, when he shows more of the same.

Sam Bradford is a good example of trap qb as well, unlucky.


But at the end of the day in a QB driven league you MUST have one. LT would be great if teams still depended on the run, or defensives weren't handcuffed. Do you take a guy who can protect dog poo? Or a guy who can make piles of turd look like gold.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:45 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
I would 100% take Smith if he turned out to be Bradford is right now. KC would be fighting for the AFC west and the Playoffs with Bradford on its team right now.

Just look at the top OT and where he plays. Browns. I think the whole LT thing is one of the most overrated things in football. If you have a good QB he makes the line better by getting the ball out quickly and to the right person.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:57 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
Would you rather have Thomas & Weeden or Bradford & Saffold?

And then consider that what the Chiefs already have is better than Saffold anyway and Geno Smith is a better prospect than Bradford.
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Old 02-03-2013, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
Absolutely. I pick Bradford or Dalton over Jake Long or Joe Thomas 10 times out of 10 if I need a QB.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 02-03-2013, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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Absolutely. I pick Bradford or Dalton over Jake Long or Joe Thomas 10 times out of 10 if I need a QB.
Why are people lumping Dalton with Bradford? He's much, much better.
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Old 02-03-2013, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
You still take Sam Bradford, so that argument sucks.
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Old 02-03-2013, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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I've never understood this line of thinking.

Let's try a hypothetical: in three years time Joeckel is a Top 5 LT in the NFL and Geno Smith is Sam Bradford.

Do you still make that selection?
Yes, Geno Smith 10 times out of 10. We've seen a ton of top 5/top 3 LTs on teams who are awful because of QB play. Give me the solid to good QB every day over the LT and it isn't close.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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Yes, Geno Smith 10 times out of 10. We've seen a ton of top 5/top 3 LTs on teams who are awful because of QB play. Give me the solid to good QB every day over the LT and it isn't close.
I'm starting to think the best move there is to take Geno but also to go out and get a veteran signal caller like a Matt Flynn or even an Alex Smith, if they can rework a deal with him. If Geno Smith comes in and blows the doors off like Russell Wilson did then you eat some salary in a year and move on.
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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I'm starting to think the best move there is to take Geno but also to go out and get a veteran signal caller like a Matt Flynn or even an Alex Smith, if they can rework a deal with him. If Geno Smith comes in and blows the doors off like Russell Wilson did then you eat some salary in a year and move on.
I agree that the Cheifs have to go QB.

I don't think their going to have much luck grabbing a vet though. At least not one of Alex Smith/Matt Flynn's $ value.

Grab a young guy and let him play. In 2 years, evaluate where you are at with him and take another if you have to.

You don't have to have the biggest QB in the league to win the SB but you have to a guy who is solid and can move the ball for you.

I personally love a great OT espically since I'm a former lineman myself. But the NFL is moving towards a direction where they are not nearly as important. The boom/bust factor an OT is more significant that people acknowledge too.
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Old 02-03-2013, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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the fact that a QB has more impact than an LT isn't an excuse to reach 20 slots.

Geno Smith is like Brady Quinn. A big name senior who skipped the Senior Bowl who the internet thinks is awesome but who the league has graded out as a late 1 (at best).

meanwhile Joekel is like Joe Thomas. Surefire Pro Bowl player.

Chiefs can be like the Browns. Take Joekel at 1 and trade back into 20 and get Geno.

I have no problem with Geno Smith, but the draft is about value. Taking him at 1 is a giant reach. He's gonna need a ridiculous pro day work out to justify that selection.

People say he takes care of the ball, but 2 dumb safeties on national TV leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth. This isn't like Vince Young winning the nat champ and the last thing everyone sees is a rose in his mouth. Geno Smith had a tailspin to end the year and there's nothing besides positional scarcity that's propping up his draft value as a supposed top 5 pick.

again i have no problem with this player 15-20 slots later. 1 is just too early.
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Old 02-03-2013, 01:19 PM    (permalink
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First, Geno is better than a top 20 player. Second, Geno won't be there after pick 10.

You disagree? That's fine, it's clear that you do, but those two things are almost locks at this point.

And for the millionth time, OT is not a need for KC. It just isn't. Albert isn't going to be kicked into guard and we have two stud OTs. We. Do. Not. Need. An. Offensive. Tackle.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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Would you rather have Thomas & Weeden or Bradford & Saffold?

And then consider that what the Chiefs already have is better than Saffold anyway and Geno Smith is a better prospect than Bradford.
based on what exactly?
The system concerns?
The happy feet?
the bonus of attitude questions?
he has arm talent, but after that i dont see it.


Im not buying geno, i dont see this super composed guy i hear about. I see a guy who shows happy feet and i think will struggle mightily when asked to make pro reads. He seems to have trouble moving reads in college, i dont buy it getting easier with a faster game and a more complex offense.

That said, i have no idea who KC picks. as has been noted many times, they dont need line.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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First, Geno is better than a top 20 player. Second, Geno won't be there after pick 10.

You disagree? That's fine, it's clear that you do, but those two things are almost locks at this point.

And for the millionth time, OT is not a need for KC. It just isn't. Albert isn't going to be kicked into guard and we have two stud OTs. We. Do. Not. Need. An. Offensive. Tackle.
What does Reid plan on doing with the defense? Has that been brought up? He's never been a 34 guy and all they really have are 34 personnel, but the ability to play both fronts.

Reid is notorious for drafting linemen (on a either side of the ball) in the first round. But he also recognizes the importance of a starting QB. The veterans that will be available also don't seem to be his type (game managers with limited arm strength). From afar it seems like Geno Smith is going to be the only viable option. And I'm not sure how much interest there will be to move up to the #1 spot.

I think the Chiefs are stuck there and Geno Smith seems like one of the few viable options (Eric Fisher is the best player in this draft, but Albert is an above average LT with great athletic ability, also in the mold of Reid's ideal LTs). If there was a dark horse that were to emerge (because he doesn't care for Geno Smith) I wouldn't be surprised to see him go after Werner or Milliner. Pass rushers and CBs are two of the most important positions on his defenses. And it doesn't matter if they are already set at those positions. He adores depth at those positions.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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Apparently skipping the Senior Bowl was a "strategic move." Yeah, he didn't want to get exposed.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-super-...-for-NFL-Draft
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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What does Reid plan on doing with the defense? Has that been brought up? He's never been a 34 guy and all they really have are 34 personnel, but the ability to play both fronts.

Reid is notorious for drafting linemen (on a either side of the ball) in the first round. But he also recognizes the importance of a starting QB. The veterans that will be available also don't seem to be his type (game managers with limited arm strength). From afar it seems like Geno Smith is going to be the only viable option. And I'm not sure how much interest there will be to move up to the #1 spot.

I think the Chiefs are stuck there and Geno Smith seems like one of the few viable options (Eric Fisher is the best player in this draft, but Albert is an above average LT with great athletic ability, also in the mold of Reid's ideal LTs). If there was a dark horse that were to emerge (because he doesn't care for Geno Smith) I wouldn't be surprised to see him go after Werner or Milliner. Pass rushers and CBs are two of the most important positions on his defenses. And it doesn't matter if they are already set at those positions. He adores depth at those positions.
The Chiefs are sticking with the 3-4. He hired the coaches to run that scheme and has said that we have the personnel to run it already in house and he doesn't want to tinker with it.

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Apparently skipping the Senior Bowl was a "strategic move." Yeah, he didn't want to get exposed.
Yeah, right, because him not going was a bad idea still, right? Look how the QBs performed at the Senior Bowl. It was obviously a strategic move. If you had advisors and your agent telling you it would be in your best interest to skip the Senior Bowl, you'd do it too.

Hilarious how other QBs have skipped and haven't been ripped this bad for it. Star skipped the Senior Bowl too, and I haven't heard word one about it from ANYONE.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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Hilarious how other QBs have skipped and haven't been ripped this bad for it. Star skipped the Senior Bowl too, and I haven't heard word one about it from ANYONE.
Warmack was hiding too because he knew he was gonna get exposed.

Jesus Christ people, figure it out already. This happens every year. When you have more to lose than you have to gain, it's not worth participating whether that's at the Senior Bowl. The players don't owe it to you or Mike Mayock to participate just because it's broadcasted on television. The prospects are competing to be drafted as high as possible, they aren't competing just for the sake of competing.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Geno is better than a top 20 player.
It's debatable.

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the fact that a QB has more impact than an LT isn't an excuse to reach 20 slots.
But yes, it probably is.

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The system concerns?
The happy feet?
the bonus of attitude questions?
he has arm talent, but after that i dont see it.


Im not buying geno, i dont see this super composed guy i hear about. I see a guy who shows happy feet and i think will struggle mightily when asked to make pro reads. He seems to have trouble moving reads in college, i dont buy it getting easier with a faster game and a more complex offense.
I also don't see people talking about his feet enough. His footwork is really pretty bad. It's not that he's scared, there's just a lot about his game that looks undisciplined to me.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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based on what exactly?
The system concerns?
The happy feet?
the bonus of attitude questions?
he has arm talent, but after that i dont see it.


Im not buying geno, i dont see this super composed guy i hear about. I see a guy who shows happy feet and i think will struggle mightily when asked to make pro reads. He seems to have trouble moving reads in college, i dont buy it getting easier with a faster game and a more complex offense.
Unless he was using revisionist history, I don't know how he can come to that conclusion, because that certainly isn't a consensus opinion. If he was low on Bradford when he came out, then I understand what he's saying. I wasn't high on Bradford. But I consider both first rounders. Just not overly great first round QB prospects. I also think Geno Smith has more bust potential to go along with a higher upside. I felt like with Bradford, you knew what you were going to get: a middle of the pack QB that could push the other QBs as a top 10 player and maybe have a couple Pro Bowl seasons (even that seems like a stretch right now).

But Bradford was hyped as the best player in his draft class. Easily a better QB prospect than most guys who came before him in recent years. You penciled in Bradford as the #1 pick months before the draft (not because of need, but because of talent). There was no damaging his stock. And after his rookie season he was starting to hear hype that he would be the face of the NFL for the next decade. Bradford was considered to be a lock.

Bradford was regarded as one of the best QB prospects in recent memory. Geno Smith is getting flack for not attending the Senior Bowl and solidifying himself as the consensus #1 QB in his own draft class. And he certainly won't be viewed as the best player in this draft, maybe not even a Top 10 player.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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Yeah Geno didn't really have much if anything to gain by playing in the Senior Bowl. He was already the top ranked quarterback for a large amount of scouts, if not the majority of them, and thus he was already in a position to go number one overall. The only place he can move from there is down. By not playing, he was allowed to keep his stock at the same level, while watching his main competitors in guys like Glennon and Wilson see their stock drop.
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Old 02-03-2013, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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On that note I'm not a big fan of this new "arm talent" meme that seems to be going around these days. It vastly oversimplifies what you are looking for in a QB's throwing ability.
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