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Old 02-05-2013, 12:46 AM    (permalink
gpngc
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Default gpngc's NFL QB Rankings

Now that the season is over, here are my rankings for top QBs in the NFL. This is extremely subjective, obviously.

The Breakdown:

35% 2012 performance
15% Career performance to date
10% Projected career performance (trajectory/upside)
8% Raw arm talent (5% accuracy/touch, 3% pure arm strength)
8% Decision-making/ability to read and manipulate coverages
8% Team success
8% Intangibles/leadership qualities/making those around him better
3% Mobility within the pocket/scrambling ability
3% Clutch history
2% Ability as a runner
2% Durability (I assume every player is healthy for this list)

*When you add everything up together the question that this list answers is this: Which QB would you rather have right now, today, to play one game, assuming full health and ideal circumstances in terms of offense and supporting cast for that player. How much time to prepare, what exactly the made up opponent would be, and if the question is changed to 'for one full season' should not affect the ranking.


1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Peyton Manning
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Eli Manning
7) Joe Flacco
8) Matt Ryan
9) Andrew Luck
10) Colin Kaepernick
11) Robert Griffin III
12) Cam Newton
13) Russell Wilson
14) Matthew Stafford
15) Philip Rivers
16) Jay Cutler
17) Tony Romo
18) Matt Schaub
19) Sam Bradford
20) Andy Dalton
21) Josh Freeman
22) Carson Palmer
23) Ryan Tannehill
24) Ryan Fitzpatrick
25) Michael Vick
26) Alex Smith
27) Brandon Weeden
28) Kevin Kolb
28) Christian Ponder
29) Mark Sanchez
30) Matt Flynn
31) Matt Moore
32) Jake Locker
33) Chad Henne
34) Ryan Mallett
35) Nick Foles
36) Blaine Gabbert
37) Jamarcus Russell
38) Tim Tebow

*Backups with no realistic chance at a starting job or trade are not ranked (Shaun Hill, Bruce Gradkowski, etc.)
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:54 AM    (permalink
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It's a fair ranking of Bradford, 19th is about right. +REP for you good sir.

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Old 02-05-2013, 01:26 AM    (permalink
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I think Russell Wilson needs to be higher on your list personally.
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Old 02-05-2013, 01:43 AM    (permalink
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Team success really hurt Stafford :/
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Old 02-05-2013, 02:39 AM    (permalink
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Based on your own criteria it doesn't make any sense to have Manning ranked above Brady. Their 2012 season was at worst equal, with Brady a little better. Their careers are at worst equal with Brady a little bit better. And being a year and half younger, Brady should clearly have the better upside. So Brady is at worst tied in the top two, better in the third, and in the rest there's hardly a difference, with Brady slightly winning the few where there is. Following your own ranking system, it's ridiculous to have Peyton above Brady..
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Old 02-05-2013, 03:41 AM    (permalink
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Cutler at 16 isn't so bad since I consider 7-17 on that list to be clumped together fairly closely. I don't think there's any doubt that Cutler should be higher than Rivers, and there are a couple others I would bump him ahead of, but whatever, it's all nitpicking.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:02 AM    (permalink
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I think this list is pretty good, considering how hard it is to separate between a lot of the QBs. I would probably make some minor adjustments here and there, but no big jumps up or down the list. good job compiling it.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:32 AM    (permalink
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Mark Sanchez ahead of anyone after the season he just put up? Please.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:58 AM    (permalink
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No Chiefs QB on the list? Seems about right.
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Old 02-05-2013, 09:05 AM    (permalink
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More evidence the Chiefs need to draft a QB #1 even if he really grades out as only a mid first rounder.

I like that Luck/CK/RG3/Newton/Russell Wilson are all smushed together.
It will interesting to see how this list shakes out the next 10 years.
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Old 02-05-2013, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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I decided to use your criteria to create my own top list. The only difference is I replaced Russell with Cassel. Rating is out of 100.
  1. Aaron Rodgers- 95.4
  2. Tom Brady- 91.9
  3. Joe Flacco- 87.6 (Arm talent, team success, and trajectory really helped him)
  4. Peyton Manning- 87.4
  5. Matt Ryan- 85.2
  6. Ben Roethlisberger- 83.3 (2012 hurt him a lot)
  7. Eli Manning- 77.0 (2012 hurt him even more than Big Ben)
  8. Andrew Luck- 76.4 (Of course helped by trajectory)
  9. Tony Romo- 75.0
  10. Drew Brees- 74.9
  11. Robert Griffin- 71.3
  12. Andy Dalton- 69.6 (Helped out a lot by Team Success. Career to date is pretty high too)
  13. Collin Kaepernick- 69.3 (Trajectory, arm talent, and mobility are sky high)
  14. Russell Wilson- 68.7
  15. Jay Cutler- 64.9 (Arm Talent alone put him ahead of a few guys behing him)
  16. Matt Schaub- 61.9 (Solid QB, but lack of trajectory and mobility hurt)
  17. Matthew Stafford- 59.9 (2012 really hurt him)
  18. Josh Freeman- 59.7
  19. Cam Newton- 58.0 (Lack of team success hurts a lot)
  20. Philip Rivers- 57.7
  21. Sam Bradford- 45.4
  22. Christian Ponder- 41.9
  23. Alex Smith- 41.6 (Could be higher but trajectory is low and being benched midseason hurts)
  24. Carson Palmer- 40.3 (Living off past glories. Should be lower)
  25. Ryan Tannehill- 37.8 (Trajectory and arm talent seperate him from the guys lower)
  26. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 35.1
  27. Nick Foles- 33.5 (I like him more than most, so trajectory is higher than others might rank it)
  28. Michael Vick- 32.7
  29. Mark Sanchez- 28.0 (Sure 2012 was awful, but making the AFC Championship a few times helps)
  30. Tim Tebow- 27.0 (Clutch and scrambling ability helped A LOT)
  31. Jake Locker- 25.7
  32. Kevin Kolb- 23.7
  33. Blaine Gabbert- 22.6
  34. Brandon Weeden- 20.5
  35. Chad Henne- 17.6
  36. Ryan Mallett- 15.7 (Could he be higher? Sure. But 2012 season and career to date are non-existant. And how can we judge decision making and intangibles if he never plays?)
  37. Matt Flynn- 10.2 (Like Mallett, not playing in 2012 kills his number. Having less arm talent and a lower ceiling give Mallett the advantage over him)
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Old 02-05-2013, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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The only flaw I see on your list is Colin Kaepernick being in the top 10 after just seven regular season starts and three in the playoffs. That's just too small of a sample for me.
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Old 02-05-2013, 11:00 AM    (permalink
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how did 2012 hurt ben a lot? before he dislocated a rib he was 17/3 TD/INT, he was surgical and then got hurt.

5 is right around where he should be, not that 6 is ridiculous but a lot of people dont realize how good he was the last 2 years until he hurt his ankle in 11 and his rib/shoulder in 12

which is why im still for drafting oline high lol
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Old 02-05-2013, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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how did 2012 hurt ben a lot? before he dislocated a rib he was 17/3 TD/INT, he was surgical and then got hurt.

5 is right around where he should be, not that 6 is ridiculous but a lot of people dont realize how good he was the last 2 years until he hurt his ankle in 11 and his rib/shoulder in 12

which is why im still for drafting oline high lol
I assume having Flacco and Ryan ahead of him is your issue. Well, I included playoffs in the calculation for 2012 season, so that is a big part of it. So is him missing a few games while those two played all 16 hurts. And seeing how 2012 was 35% of the grading, it hurts. His overall team success, intangibles, and clutchness help out, but he loses a lot of point in durability.
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Old 02-05-2013, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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Makes sense, i do not think flacco and ryan belong in front of him, but i see why they are, at least for now. Hopefully we can get a full season out of him next year, the oline is much improved we just need to address WR and i think hes got several more strong seasons and playoff pushes ahead of him.

flacco riding high off of the big playoffs and superbowl win, id be fairly surprised if that holds up consistently though
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Kap over RGIII & Cam? If the Niners had Cam they'd be two time Super Bowl champions by now.
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Old 02-05-2013, 12:58 PM    (permalink
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Kap over RGIII & Cam? If the Niners had Cam they'd be two time Super Bowl champions by now.
to his credit he has played almost an entire season, and if he has a few bad games to start the season he will suddenly not be a "top 20" quarterback anymore. and don't forget the rookie quarterbacks next year, if a few of them manage to win some games then they will be in the "top ten" and there won't be room for any of the guys you mentioned anymore.

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Old 02-05-2013, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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Pretty good list, and here's the thing: performances change all the time.
Guys will move up and down all the time. Philip Rivers was a top-5 QB for sure about 3, 4 years ago, consistently great. Now many y'all treat him like... Josh Freeman.

Just because a guy is a rookie, or has only 10 starts, doesn't mean they aren't as good as someone who's in their 6th or 8th year. I have no problem seeing Kaepernick, RG3, Wilson, Tannehill, or Luck rated higher than vets.

Here's the key question I wanted to -wait for it- start a thread asking (but there are already so many other QB threads right now, I held off :o)

Who is the 5th best QB in the NFL right now?
The top 4 seem pretty unanymous here as well as from Mike & Mike, Jaws, Hasselbeck, etc.

Who is the 5th best QB?

Super Joe Flacco
Elijah Manning
Benji Roethlisberger
Rob Griffin III
Andy Luck
Colin Kaepernick
Russ Wilson
Anthony Romo

I think the first 3 guys on there each have valid cases.
Flacco (playoff record is fantastic, unprecidented to win a playoff game in first 5 seasons plus a Super Bowl in a run where he was Joe Montana perfect).
Big Ben & Eli both have 2 rings already.
BR was having a great season this year until I traded for him in FFB and got him hurt.
Eli has done it twice.

Then the next tier are those young guns who are great.... but can they sustain the greatness? I'm sure one or two of them will....

Romo has put up some great numbers, but he's the Romo-coaster.
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Old 02-05-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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Eli is obviously in the top 5 QBs in the NFL. Big Ben at 6. Flacco's probably leading the rest of the pack in 7th. Then it gets really messy. You've got your inconsistently awesome, like Cutler and Stafford, your very good on a good team but not greats, like Ryan, Schaub, Dalton and Romo, and your up n comers like Luck, Bob, Russell, Cam and Tannehill.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:08 PM    (permalink
TheFinisher
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Pretty good list. I always like to see how others teams' fans view Romo. He just makes me smh because there are stretches throughout the season where he plays up to that Eli and Ben level only to fail in grand fashion when the lights turn bright. The curious case of Tony Romo.

Anyway, here's mine:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Drew Brees
5. Eli Manning
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Matt Ryan
8. Joe Flacco
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Cam Newton
11. Colin Kaepernick
12. Andrew Luck
13. RG3
14. Tony Romo
15. Russell Wilson
16. Jay Cutler
17. Matt Schaub
18. Philip Rivers
19. Andy Dalton
20. Michael Vick
21. Carson Palmer
22. Josh Freeman
23. Sam Bradford
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Old 02-05-2013, 06:44 PM    (permalink
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I like Romo. And you could argue him over Rivers or Cutler or Stafford.

But no one in their right mind would take him over Wilson considering what we know about each player lol.
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Old 02-06-2013, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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It's a pretty solid list. I'd have Eli at 5 instead of 6, and I'd rate Wilson higher, but I can't hate on that list. Well done.
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Old 02-06-2013, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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Awesome job on that list.

Now do it with the incoming rookies! ;)
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Old 02-06-2013, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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If I need one quarterback to win a game for me tomorrow, I'm not picking Aaron Rodgers. He is statistically great in the regular season with an arsenal of weapons around him, but I wouldn't characterize him as a "big game" QB. He and the Packers had a phenomenal run in 2010 on their way to the Super Bowl, but outside of that he has been very similar to Peyton Manning in terms of playoff success (1-3) and that lone victory came against a Joe Webb led Vikings squad. I'm not hating on Aaron, just pointing out the facts.

I'd still take Tom Brady before anyone else.
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Old 02-06-2013, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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Awesome job on that list.

Now do it with the incoming rookies! ;)
Not done with watching the tape there.

So far not so good though...
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