gpngc Mock 2-6-13

gpngc · 02-06-2013, 05:57 PM

Looking for feedback.

01. Kansas City Chiefs: Dee Milliner
I won't be shocked if Andy Reid chooses one of the QBs here but after preliminary work on all of them (besides Matt Scott), I just can't predict they'll take a leap of faith to invest such a valuable pick to turn a turd into gold. I don't know exactly what they'll do about QB, but I think the wisest move would be to either delay acquiring the future at QB or take your chances that one of the guys they might like will be there at No. 33. Yes, you generally don't want to wait on a QB, but given this unique situation where the QBs are all such flawed prospects, I think the "if you'd take him at 15, you'd take him at 1" argument changes to "if you'd take him in the 3rd, you'd take him at No. 33." I don't know if that makes sense. Not to mention, the marquee year for "if you like him, take him no matter how high" was 2011 when the three teams to do this ended up with Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker. That same year, the Bengals and 49ers both selected top non-QB talents at the top of their drafts and took a QB they liked later on (the 49ers even trusted their evaluation against the rest of the league's perception of Kaep, took Smith at No. 7, waited it out, and pounced on a trade up to get him at No. 36). In 2008, the Ravens didn't just take Joe Flacco at No. 8. They moved down to get more picks and then back up to secure him at No. 18. Reid is a heck of a QB coach. With the way this class shakes out, I'm not sure the best idea wouldn't be to see who's there at No. 33 (or maybe even the 3rd) and add another developmental guy (think Cousins/Wilson picks last year) later on. It's a tough situation.

If they choose to let Albert walk and make the very lateral and frustrating move, I think Joeckel/Fisher is the pick. If not, I think it's Milliner, who is being overlooked as probably the best CB prospect in years. Simply put, he's got literally everything you look for in an impact, shutdown CB. Assuming slight concerns about his long speed are alleviated by a sub-4.5 forty, the only thing he'll have to work on is his ball skills. The Chiefs have a lot of talent and sometimes the draft isn't as much about plugging in needs as it is building on a strength. Teaming up Milliner with Flowers (and Berry) would give them a top secondary to go along with a good pass rush.

02. Jacksonville Jaguars: Damontre Moore
03. Oakland Raiders: Bjoern Werner
04. Philadelphia Eagles: Star Loutelei
05. Detroit Lions: Luke Joeckel
06. Cleveland Browns: Jarvis Jones
07. Arizona Cardinals: Eric Fisher
08. Buffalo Bills: Ryan Nassib

This is very cliche, but I wouldn't be surprised if it really happened. Marrone and co. would downplay interest and then shock everyone on draft night. Stupider things have happened. And I would not be in favor of this pick, but I think it's possible.

09. New York Jets: Ezekiel Ansah
10. Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack
11. San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson
12. Miami Dolphins: Kenny Vaccaro
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Barkevious Mingo
14. Carollina Panthers: Isaiah Trufant
15. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Richardson
16. St. Louis Rams: D.J. Fluker
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Eifert
18. Dallas Cowboys: Shariff Floyd
19. New York Giants: Alec Ogletree
20. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Cooper
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Manti Te'o
22. St. Louis Rams (f/WAS): Eddie Lacy
23. Minnesota Vikings: Keenan Allen
24. Indianapolis Colts: Margus Hunt
25. Seattle Seahawks: Cordarrelle Patterson
26. Green Bay Packers: Dion Jordan
27. Houston Texans: Tavon Austin
28. Denver Broncos: Jonathan Hankins
29. New England Patriots: DeAndre Hopkins
30. Atlanta Falcons: Tank Carradine
31. San Francisco 49ers: Xavier Rhodes
32. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Dobson

No Geno Smith in the first round:

Folks, I've seen the Geno Smith story before. It's come in all different shapes and sizes. A guy whose production/pedigree/perception simply doesn't translate for various reasons to NFL people. He slides, someone gets him later than expected, the draftniks scratch their heads, and years later we all realize the warning signs were obvious.

The slide has come from guys who were supposed to be No. 1 contenders (Clausen, Quinn, Leinart, Brohom) and guys who had so much damn potential we thought (Omar Jacobs, Andre Woodson). Smith may not fall to the 2nd. And someone may fall in love (I doubt the Chiefs at 1 but anything is possible). But do not be surprised to see another media/stats/draftnik-driven QB hype train crash in the late teens, 20s, or worse.

princefielder28 · 02-06-2013, 06:38 PM

I would love Jordan at that pick, but I'm not sure he'll fall that far

TheMatriculator · 02-06-2013, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

Looking for feedback.

01. Kansas City Chiefs: Dee Milliner
I won't be shocked if Andy Reid chooses one of the QBs here but after preliminary work on all of them (besides Matt Scott), I just can't predict they'll take a leap of faith to invest such a valuable pick to turn a turd into gold. I don't know exactly what they'll do about QB, but I think the wisest move would be to either delay acquiring the future at QB or take your chances that one of the guys they might like will be there at No. 33. Yes, you generally don't want to wait on a QB, but given this unique situation where the QBs are all such flawed prospects, I think the "if you'd take him at 15, you'd take him at 1" argument changes to "if you'd take him in the 3rd, you'd take him at No. 33." I don't know if that makes sense. Not to mention, the marquee year for "if you like him, take him no matter how high" was 2011 when the three teams to do this ended up with Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker. That same year, the Bengals and 49ers both selected top non-QB talents at the top of their drafts and took a QB they liked later on (the 49ers even trusted their evaluation against the rest of the league's perception of Kaep, took Smith at No. 7, waited it out, and pounced on a trade up to get him at No. 36). In 2008, the Ravens didn't just take Joe Flacco at No. 8. They moved down to get more picks and then back up to secure him at No. 18. Reid is a heck of a QB coach. With the way this class shakes out, I'm not sure the best idea wouldn't be to see who's there at No. 33 (or maybe even the 3rd) and add another developmental guy (think Cousins/Wilson picks last year) later on. It's a tough situation.

If they choose to let Albert walk and make the very lateral and frustrating move, I think Joeckel/Fisher is the pick. If not, I think it's Milliner, who is being overlooked as probably the best CB prospect in years. Simply put, he's got literally everything you look for in an impact, shutdown CB. Assuming slight concerns about his long speed are alleviated by a sub-4.5 forty, the only thing he'll have to work on is his ball skills. The Chiefs have a lot of talent and sometimes the draft isn't as much about plugging in needs as it is building on a strength. Teaming up Milliner with Flowers (and Berry) would give them a top secondary to go along with a good pass rush.

I may not agree but at least this mock makes some sense. If the Chiefs do not like any of the QBs then take the best player that meets a need. Of course, what we have heard in KC is that the Chiefs ARE focused on one QB. We just don't know which one.

T-RICH49 · 02-06-2013, 07:05 PM

ughhh why do you hate me.QB or bust at 1 for KC

gpngc · 02-06-2013, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T-RICH49

ughhh why do you hate me.QB or bust at 1 for KC

I think you mean QB AND bust.

Joking. A little.

And I don't hate you. I just vehemently disagree with "even if he busts at least they tried" especially in a class where it's possible that only one or two QBs get drafted in the first round. And more importantly, one of the QBs they actually like may not go before 33. There's a decent chance of that.

holt_bruce81 · 02-06-2013, 07:13 PM

Are you giving the Rams pooh selections on purpose?

gpngc · 02-06-2013, 07:16 PM

We've done this dance before. You want a receiver. Fisher's history tells me he's a proponent of a strong running game. Hence the picks.

holt_bruce81 · 02-06-2013, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

We've done this dance before. You want a receiver. Fisher's history tells me he's a proponent of a strong running game. Hence the picks.

I don't WANT a receiver. I mean sure it would be nice. I just want good value with the picks. On both selections you have the Rams reaching.

vidae · 02-06-2013, 07:23 PM

If you're picking a corner first overall he better turn out to be Deion Sanders.

gpngc · 02-06-2013, 07:24 PM

"Value" in April is bad enough. "Value" and "reaches" in February are just...

farfromforgotten · 02-06-2013, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae

If you're picking a corner first overall he better turn out to be Deion Sanders.

Definitely an interesting choice. Seeing as the last DB to go #1 overall was one Gary Glick, picked by the Steelers in the 1956 draft.

I get that you aren't high on Smith, but Nassib as the 1st QB off the board? I'd be shocked. Shocked. Is it just because the connection with the coach or is there something more? I don't see how Nassib could be ranked ahead of Smith, Barkley, Glennon, or Wilson right now... possibly Manuel too.

Rhodes is a good pick for the Niners.

edit: looking back, I see the quip about Nassib.

indyfan1985 · 02-06-2013, 08:28 PM

Give the Colts WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Margus Hunt is not worth the 24th pick. They could also go with DT Johnathon Hankins or CB Xavier Rhodes there.

Matthew Jones · 02-06-2013, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T-RICH49

ughhh why do you hate me.QB or bust at 1 for KC

So...bust or bust? :)

coordinator0 · 02-06-2013, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

32. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Dobson

Huh? That's... interesting. I'm not projecting a WR for them yet though.

Pat Sims 90 · 02-06-2013, 09:05 PM

Manti Te'o is not a good fit for the Bengals. They already have LBs that can't cover.

vidae · 02-06-2013, 09:14 PM

Anyway, corner is a big need for KC, but I like the depth at corner a lot in this draft. I'd still prefer to go Geno and then a corner in the second, like Poyer or Trufant.

Seasonticketholder · 02-06-2013, 10:25 PM

Why is this so hard? Dion Jordan over Sheldon Richardson for the Saints. We are running a 3-4. We have two 5-tech DEs and a serviceable NT. We need a pass-rushing OLB. Richardson makes ZERO sense here.

Nastradamus · 02-06-2013, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

"Value" in April is bad enough. "Value" and "reaches" in February are just...

No matter how you look at it, you aren't getting enough for your picks in Fluker and Lacy. Give them those guys at 22 and with their 2nd, ok I get that. at 16 and 22? Not so much.

Nastradamus · 02-06-2013, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by indyfan1985

Give the Colts WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Margus Hunt is not worth the 24th pick. They could also go with DT Johnathon Hankins or CB Xavier Rhodes there.

I'm with you here. I really think the Colts will end up going WR in the 1st. I could be wrong obviously, but I think Luck needs another WR now(Avery isn't good, Hilton is a #3) as well as a #1 to be groomed for the future. Patterson,Allen or Hopkins all make sense. Maybe even Hunter.

Nastradamus · 02-06-2013, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

I think you mean QB AND bust.

Joking. A little.

And I don't hate you. I just vehemently disagree with "even if he busts at least they tried" especially in a class where it's possible that only one or two QBs get drafted in the first round. And more importantly, one of the QBs they actually like may not go before 33. There's a decent chance of that.

I'm not on the train of "even if he busts you tried" by any means. I think there is probably a QB good enough for them to take in this draft, but if you don't like them, I respect your thinking. I highly doubt Millner would be the guy though and I vehemently disagree with your assertion that he is the best CB in years. Petersen,Claiborne and Haden were all better easily. Millner's ceiling is Quentin Jammer, those guys' ceiling is Revis or someone of that ilk.

ChicagoBearsVet23 · 02-06-2013, 10:45 PM

Cooper is a great Bears selection

StickSkills · 02-06-2013, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae

If you're picking a corner first overall he better turn out to be Deion Sanders.

Maybe it's actually Leon Sandcastle.

RCAChainGang · 02-07-2013, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by indyfan1985

Give the Colts WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Margus Hunt is not worth the 24th pick. They could also go with DT Johnathon Hankins or CB Xavier Rhodes there.

I really don't agree with going WR in round one, but I can understand the reasoning though. We are fine at WR for a year or two and when we get a better line the play of the WR's will be better because Luck will have time to let routes develop and be able to pass when it is planned.

I also agree Margus Hunt doesn't have the value for the Colts there.

Really Dion Jordan is the money pick for the Colts in that situation. Xavier rhodes would also work, but Hankins doesn't make sense to me. NT isn't a round 1 need and I'm not sure Hankins fits that value.

T-RICH49 · 02-07-2013, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae

If you're picking a corner first overall he better turn out to be Deion Sanders.

or Leon Sandcastle

TonyGfortheTD · 02-07-2013, 03:36 AM

I'm not sure if the idea of the Chiefs drafting a CB #1 overall (lmao), which has never happened in the modern era or your explanation for Geno Smith not going in the first round at all is the funniest part.

It's a pretty massive reach to grab a #2 CB. I think this might be one of those rare instances where I'd even say Joeckel makes more sense.