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Old 02-08-2013, 10:36 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
There has never as far as I'm aware been an injury to a QB at the Senior Bowl. Even if there has the chances of one happening are extremely slim.

So what were the risks? Maybe that he'd fail to separate from the other guys?

If he was the clear-cut best QB with the clear-cut best film, it would make some sense (even then there's no real reason to skip), but given his situation it's pretty scary that he didn't go there and throw. Probably feared he'd be exposed in an uncomfortable environment (under center, new receivers, pro verbiage). Otherwise why not just show up and take control, spin it like you know can and blow everybody else out of the water. A "strategic move?" Ugh.
I don't think it is as much to do with injury as it is spending a full extra week with one on one tutelage with a QB coach as oppose to going to the senior bowl where you will be splitting time, splitting reps, and being coached by a team that will not likely draft you (I think Geno was set to be coached by the Lions staff)
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 02-08-2013, 11:50 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, it has nothing to do with injury concerns and everything to do with being more prepared for the combine and his pro days.

While the rest of the QBs were at the Senior Bowl, he was working hard with an actual QB coach and trying to get ready for the more important events, the combine and his pro day. Makes sense to me.
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Old 02-08-2013, 11:55 PM    (permalink
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ok so i took some more time to watch geno, as well as take a first look at glennon, barkley, landry jones, tyler bray, and tyler wilson. havent seen a ton, and want to see more another day, but based on what ive seen so far...


Mike Glennon - clear and away the best i saw, wasnt even close really. worked safeties with his eyes, identified different coverages and made good decisions. Has the arm and size as well. accuracy gets spotty sometimes, usually with a guy in his feet where he wont step into the throw, causing him to throw it short. Pocket presence was good, missed a throw here and there but other than that he looked pretty damn good to me.

Tyler Bray - similar to glennon, except doesnt make reads and his accuracy is a flip of the coin. hits guys in stride a few play in a row, then misses a bunch. makes decisions before the snap most of the time. i dont consider him much of a developmental guy and doubt he turns into anything. worth a training camp tryout to see if your QB coach think he can work with him but his flashes are so infrequent and he has so many bad habits, just too big a project.

Tyler Wilson - bit of a dissappointment. Good arm, average accuracy and spotty footwork. doesnt read the defense well at all. forces throws frequently, even in limited viewing. will work progressions sometimes but forces throws under pressure, ok pocket presence but gets happy feet when there is room to slide and keep playing and forces throws. was very turned off at first, but then he flashed some things. i want to see more but at this point i think hes a fringe first rounder who is very inconsistent. Jay cutler with less arm. throws a ton of shallow crosses and meshes but struggles throwing down the field. seems to go to his first read without reading the defense at all, identifying the high safety etc.

Matt Barkley - i dont get him. bad arm. shows pretty good accuracy but will sometimes make bad decisions and completely misdiagnose the defense or think he can fit a throw in a window he has no prayer of hitting. I think the decision making is fixable with him, just a bad season where he tried to do too much. consistent bad habit of throwing off balance, or setting his feet in cement and not stepping into his throws. I can see him being serviceable but i dont see him being a successful starter. 3rd round is the ceiling for him i think probably a more legitimate value later though, not much upside.

landry jones - same as bray. so many issues that hes just not worth the time to develop.

Geno Smith - good arm. solid mobility. if he could clean up his footwork i think his accuracy would become more consistent and be pretty good. the positives pretty much end there though. stares down targets very badly. doesnt often go through progressions, just forces throws to first target. gets rattled too easily in the pocket. I think he grades out a little worse than wilson



Rankings:
Glennon - 1st round
Wilson - 2nd
Geno - 2nd
Barkley - 4th+


If im KC, im taking glennon and i think its worth it even that high, i think hes a franchise guy and i dont think you can reach on a guy like that. Wilson and Geno both have potential but significant flags with their games, but to my eyes Glennon already looks like a pro quarterback and has more potential than both of his piers.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:06 AM    (permalink
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We must have been watching different prospects, because Mike Glennon made some of the worst decisions I've ever seen on a football field. Couple that with his tendency to throw off his back foot and into double coverage, I'd pass. Maybe I'd take him in the second, maybe. I'm just not a fan, and I obviously don't see what other people see in him.
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Old 02-09-2013, 02:21 AM    (permalink
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Do the people who say that the Chiefs will pick a QB #! realize that both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay think that a defensive player will be picked by the Chiefs. They are not always right about everything but it says something if they both believe that since they know better then anyone on here.

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Old 02-09-2013, 02:46 AM    (permalink
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Do the people who say that the Chiefs will pick a QB #! realize that both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay think that a defensive player will be picked by the Chiefs. They are not always right about everything but it says something if they both believe that since they know better then anyone on here.
If that stays til their final mock draft then I'll listen a little but if you look at Todd and Mel's February mock drafts over history they are very rarely accurate this early in the game.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:09 AM    (permalink
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No.

And, despite it working out, I still don't think the Bengals should have drafted Green over Locker, Mallet, or Gabbert. There were 5 full-on franchise-level QB prospects in that class (including Kaepernick). Geno is a better prospect than Gabbert was and is more proven than Locker.
I find this to be very interesting. Mallett, no one really knows because he plays behind Brady. But I highly doubt the Titans and Jaguars feel very secure in knowing that they have their franchise quarterbacks for the next ten years. While I do think you need to take the franchise QB when you have the opportunity, those guys were both reaches, and everyone but their GM's knew it at the time.
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:44 AM    (permalink
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Meh, I don't really think Locker and Gabbert were reaches at the time. I think that's pretty revisionist. Its not like they were projected to go a lot later then they did (mid 1st at the latest?). If that's the case I think picking them at #8 and #10 respectively is very reasonable. We see this happen almost every year with quarterbacks. If you think a QB has the potential to be a franchise guy you take him (assuming need).
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Old 02-09-2013, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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We must have been watching different prospects, because Mike Glennon made some of the worst decisions I've ever seen on a football field. Couple that with his tendency to throw off his back foot and into double coverage, I'd pass. Maybe I'd take him in the second, maybe. I'm just not a fan, and I obviously don't see what other people see in him.
then what is it that youre seeing in geno exactly?

is it the staring down his targets thats get the blood flowing?
or the panicky feet when his first guy isnt open and he decides not to force it anyway? The slow progression through reads on the occassion he does go past his first one?
or the constant throwing off balance that he does?
maybe its the fact that he never seems to identify the defense at all?
seriously, break geno down for me, tell me what youre seeing because after watching him vs oklahoma and kansas state and watching kansas right now im very umimpressed.


because i dont see anything in geno's game that i think translates better than glennon's. nothing. watched two more games (miami, fsu, unc, all on youtube btw).

FSU he made some shakey choices, definitely his worst of those games, especially that late throw across his body he got very lucky on that. he also hesitated on a corner route that got picked he should have just hit the smash that he pulled it back on, but outside of those there were very few things i thought he did terribly wrong.

what i loved was seeing him identify the defense and determining his first read. thats a habit (looking at the defense and reading the coverage) that translates extremely well to the nfl, its great to see him looking like that in college. Geno rarely does that, and that is going to be a tough road to hoe once he gets to the league.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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Meh, I don't really think Locker and Gabbert were reaches at the time. I think that's pretty revisionist. Its not like they were projected to go a lot later then they did (mid 1st at the latest?). If that's the case I think picking them at #8 and #10 respectively is very reasonable. We see this happen almost every year with quarterbacks. If you think a QB has the potential to be a franchise guy you take him (assuming need).
I watched Locker for 4 years at Washington. The whole time they kept raving about how "he is raw, but his potential to be a star is phenomenal." He is a great guy, a fantastic young man in the community who used to always comes to Children's Hospital to hang out with the kids and whatnot. We would always thank him for coming, and he always acted like it was a privilege. So there was a lot to like about him. But on the field, on tape, he wasn't any better as a graduating senior than he was after half a dozen games his freshman year. And, quite frankly, I don't think he is any better today than the day he was drafted. So I don't see it as anything but a huge reach. The so-called ceiling for him is unattainable, because he had already shown over the course of his college career that he wasn't going to make any progress.

Gabbert, I know less about. If I remember his pre-draft courtship, though, he seemed to be a QB that was basically molded by the process to be something he was not because the draft needed another "franchise" QB.

In any case, I don't see how you can say they were not reaches. Just because QB's get overdrafted based on the position they play does not mean that teams will not pay the consequences afterward for not doing their homework. It also does not mean that a guy who is a 2nd or 3rd round prospect is now actually a 1st round talent because he is a quarterback. It just means that someone is overdrafting him, aka REACHING.
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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Why do people knock Geno Smith for throwing primarily to Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey last season?? In most games they were exactly the right option.

Geno wasn't forcing the ball to them and yes he specifically targeted them. But when your two top WRs have over 100 receptions a piece in the same season and Bailey has 25 receiving TDs and Austin has 12, that's not a negative on your quarterback.

Geno SMith IMO is a better decision maker than Glennon. Which QB forced the most throws or misread defensive coverages?? Which QB had a tendency to double clutch on passes that allowed multiple defensive backs to break on the ball??

Glennon has moments when he plays very outstanding football,(Clemson/Miami/UNC/BC) But there are times in almost every game when he looks like a freshman QB starting his first game.

Watching from television you can't make definitive statements on what a QB sees or how well he's reading coverages, because you can't see the full defensive coverages or all the QB's reads.

Yes there were times last season when teams like K-State were able to bracket cover both Bailey and Austin and Smith had trouble adjusting, but really is that all on Smith or just the reality of most offenses??
If a QB goes through two reads, waiting for one of them to come open before the pass rush gets to him, if he doesn't throw a dump off the play is dead.

I'm not worried about Smith's ball distribution. It was lopsided last season for Bailey/Austin but there's a reason why. They were arguably the best WR duo in the country.
Smith only had two bad games last season, at TT and against K State. Three if you add the bowl game against Syracuse.
However you know what Geno SMith looks like when he's 'on'; the first five games of the 2012 Smith's statline was 2094 yards passing/82% completions/24 TDs/0 INTs.

There's an argument for taking Glennon as the first QB off the board.
There's a better one for making Geno Smith the first QB selected.
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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The key thing about that WVU/K-Sate game was that it followed the Texas Tech/WVU game. Tech runs basically the same offense as WVU did thus that film was defensive gold for WVU's following opponents. It makes sense that the Tech loss launched the losing streak.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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I watched Locker for 4 years at Washington. The whole time they kept raving about how "he is raw, but his potential to be a star is phenomenal." He is a great guy, a fantastic young man in the community who used to always comes to Children's Hospital to hang out with the kids and whatnot. We would always thank him for coming, and he always acted like it was a privilege. So there was a lot to like about him. But on the field, on tape, he wasn't any better as a graduating senior than he was after half a dozen games his freshman year. And, quite frankly, I don't think he is any better today than the day he was drafted. So I don't see it as anything but a huge reach. The so-called ceiling for him is unattainable, because he had already shown over the course of his college career that he wasn't going to make any progress.

Gabbert, I know less about. If I remember his pre-draft courtship, though, he seemed to be a QB that was basically molded by the process to be something he was not because the draft needed another "franchise" QB.

In any case, I don't see how you can say they were not reaches. Just because QB's get overdrafted based on the position they play does not mean that teams will not pay the consequences afterward for not doing their homework. It also does not mean that a guy who is a 2nd or 3rd round prospect is now actually a 1st round talent because he is a quarterback. It just means that someone is overdrafting him, aka REACHING.
Right...so they were reaches because you, an amateur football/draft fan, didn't like them in the process. But when a NFL front office said that they thought he (Locker/Gabbert) could be the guy that means nothing. These guys were never EVER 2nd or 3rd round prospects so stop making that comparison. They were generally thought to go anywhere from early to mid 1st so #8 and #10 isn't really any kind of stretch if their FO's believed in them.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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Do the people who say that the Chiefs will pick a QB #! realize that both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay think that a defensive player will be picked by the Chiefs. They are not always right about everything but it says something if they both believe that since they know better then anyone on here.
I do believe that they know more about the draft and the prospects than 99% of people here. I do not believe that they know more about the Chiefs or the Chiefs needs than some of the Chiefs fans here.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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Right...so they were reaches because you, an amateur football/draft fan, didn't like them in the process. But when a NFL front office said that they thought he (Locker/Gabbert) could be the guy that means nothing. These guys were never EVER 2nd or 3rd round prospects so stop making that comparison. They were generally thought to go anywhere from early to mid 1st so #8 and #10 isn't really any kind of stretch if their FO's believed in them.

Both Gabbert/Locker were 'potential' picks. They were drafted high because of their tools and the belief they could develop in the NFL and become better in the pros than they were as collegians.
Drafting physical talent without the game film to back it up is always a risky move, probably the worst position to do this is at QB.

There were several discussions not only here but among 'pro' analysts on whether Locker would ever throw with the accuracy needed to be successful in the pros.

And there were always suspicions that Gabbert just wasn't a very good QB but was hyped because of his prototypical tools for the position.

IMO many people saw great potential upside in these two picks, but also acknowledged they had major holes in their games that could make them bust out.

Gabbert/Locker weren't consensus picks for longterm success in the NFL.
I'd add Ponder to this group as well.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Both Gabbert/Locker were 'potential' picks. They were drafted high because of their tools and the belief they could develop in the NFL and become better in the pros than they were as collegians.
Drafting physical talent without the game film to back it up is always a risky move, probably the worst position to do this is at QB.

There were several discussions not only here but among 'pro' analysts on whether Locker would ever throw with the accuracy needed to be successful in the pros.

And there were always suspicions that Gabbert just wasn't a very good QB but was hyped because of his prototypical tools for the position.

IMO many people saw great potential upside in these two picks, but also acknowledged they had major holes in their games that could make them bust out.

Gabbert/Locker weren't consensus picks for longterm success in the NFL.
I'd add Ponder to this group as well.
I don't disagree with this, but once you get out of the top 5 it isn't some new thing to draft a QB based on potential. Once you get outside of the blue chip guys, there's typically going to be some deficiencies. Whether that's having the physical tools but not the polished game yet, or having the polished game, but limited physical tools (or being 60 years old like Weeden).

With all of these guys if you hit it looks like a fantastic pick, but if they bust everyone will say "wow that was such a reach". The bottom line is, if you need a QB and your FO says "we think this guy can become our franchise signal caller", then you take him. Once you get outside of the blue chip prospects those picks carry a lot of risk, but that risk is pretty much inherent with drafting a QB in the 1st. There's always a decent chance they will bust, but if you hit it pays off BIG because you are set for the next decade.
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Old 02-09-2013, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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I do believe that they know more about the draft and the prospects than 99% of people here. I do not believe that they know more about the Chiefs or the Chiefs needs than some of the Chiefs fans here.
Really I doubt that. They can talk to people and get inside info that no on on here could. Most fans like to puff themselves up and think we are smarter then people on T.V. but that is rarely the case.
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Old 02-09-2013, 05:04 PM    (permalink
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Right...so they were reaches because you, an amateur football/draft fan, didn't like them in the process. But when a NFL front office said that they thought he (Locker/Gabbert) could be the guy that means nothing. These guys were never EVER 2nd or 3rd round prospects so stop making that comparison. They were generally thought to go anywhere from early to mid 1st so #8 and #10 isn't really any kind of stretch if their FO's believed in them.
Well, Locker was reportedly advised by the NFL Collegiate Advisory Committee that he wouldn't receive a first round grade; so I mean, he was at least at one point viewed as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect by some people in the know.

As for the discussion about Kiper/McShay/Whoever mocking X-Player to the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that it's only February. They have to create new and different mock drafts two and a half more months. It's their job. You can't take any of them seriously until the week before the draft. Sometimes they'll throw in controversial picks just to get pageviews.

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Old 02-09-2013, 05:24 PM    (permalink
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Well, Locker was reportedly advised by the NFL Collegiate Advisory Committee that he wouldn't receive a first round grade; so I mean, he was at least at one point viewed as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect by some people in the know.

As for the discussion about Kiper/McShay/Whoever mocking X-Player to the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that it's only February. They have to create new and different mock drafts two and a half more months. It's their job. You can't take any of them seriously until the week before the draft. Sometimes they'll throw in controversial picks just to get pageviews.
Fair, I probably shouldn't have said "ever". But we do know that those committee grades are notoriously conservative and are also given very early in the process (a point you touch on with your Kiper/McShay bit). I think by the time the draft (after the combine/workouts...etc.) rolled around it was pretty much a consensus that both Locker and Gabbert would go at some point in the 1st.
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Old 02-09-2013, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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Reid knows if he drafts the wrong QB, he will be fired. If Reid thinks a QB is much better than whoever he expects will be there when the second round rolls around, then I don't see how he can pass on his favorite QB.

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Old 02-10-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
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There has never as far as I'm aware been an injury to a QB at the Senior Bowl. Even if there has the chances of one happening are extremely slim.

So what were the risks? Maybe that he'd fail to separate from the other guys?

If he was the clear-cut best QB with the clear-cut best film, it would make some sense (even then there's no real reason to skip), but given his situation it's pretty scary that he didn't go there and throw. Probably feared he'd be exposed in an uncomfortable environment (under center, new receivers, pro verbiage). Otherwise why not just show up and take control, spin it like you know can and blow everybody else out of the water. A "strategic move?" Ugh.


You can say that all you want, but there is far more to lose at the combine then gain. That's just the way it is and always will be. That doesn't automatically mean if you don't throw you can't play, as far as I'm concerned there isn't much difference in throwing at a pro day and throwing at the Senior Bowl practices. What guy wouldn't look better throwing to WR's he was comfortable with.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:31 PM    (permalink
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Not going to the Senior Bowl was weak sauce, but it was a solid business decision. I would have liked to see him firmly establish himself as the top guy.

I'm not big on any one of the QBs in this draft but what else can the Chiefs do but find their favorite and take him? Its a unusual spot to be in this year for them.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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We must have been watching different prospects, because Mike Glennon made some of the worst decisions I've ever seen on a football field. Couple that with his tendency to throw off his back foot and into double coverage, I'd pass. Maybe I'd take him in the second, maybe. I'm just not a fan, and I obviously don't see what other people see in him.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Not going to the Senior Bowl was weak sauce, but it was a solid business decision. I would have liked to see him firmly establish himself as the top guy.

I'm not big on any one of the QBs in this draft but what else can the Chiefs do but find their favorite and take him? Its a unusual spot to be in this year for them.
Take the best available player, who is certainly not a QB in this cycle. The value between a QB who will be drafted in Round 1 (way to early) and Round 4 is as close as it has ever been between QB prospects top to bottom.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:13 PM    (permalink
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With Michael Vick re-upping in Philadelphia, might we see a deal involving Nick Foles to Kansas City? I'm thinking it wouldn't cost KC more than a conditional 4th round pick or so, his skill set/strengths are similar to Geno Smith, has the year of experience in Reid's system, and carries a much lower price tag than anyone they take at #1. From there Kansas City could take the best player available (probably Star) and target a corner or receiver in round two.
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