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Old 02-08-2013, 03:38 PM    (permalink
Wootylicous
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Just a remainder that Tebow was a first round pick. Manziel can go anywhere
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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Tebow in the 1st was also a mistake. No team would draft him in the top 4 rounds if he was in this draft. Let Mr. Football have some more years to develop before we draft him.
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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Lets not forget that Santonio Holmes counts 12.2 mill against the cap next year. This Jets cap situation is just a joke that keeps on delivering on so many levels. Wasn´t Mike Tannenbaum considered to be a good "cap-guy" a while back?
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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I don't mean to get off topic but putting Manziel in the same sentence as Tebow is RIDICULOUS.

Manziel is 100000x the passer Tebow is.
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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From what I'm reading you guys are way overestimating how much money teams need to sign their rookies.
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Old 02-08-2013, 05:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Scotty D View Post
From what I'm reading you guys are way overestimating how much money teams need to sign their rookies.
Using the Jets as an example, if you look at last year's version of them, they spent 6M in first-year cap just from rounds 1-7. It'll cost more this year (rookie wage scale goes up each season). If the Jets have extra picks from trades, it'll be more. If they have compensatory picks, tack on even more. Their draft class is going to include some UDFAs, because, after all, no team signs zero UDFAs. Some of them cost more than 4th-7th rounders.

If they only have their original 7 picks and sign an averagish number of 6 UDFAs (with none of them being of the better and more expensive variety...strictly minimums for this example), they get to 9M. That's no extra picks from trades and no compensatory picks...and not accounting for the growth in what they're forced to pay by the rookie wage scale (I don't know how much it went up). Now that I look closer instead of guessing like before, I'd call 9M the minimum they'll need.
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Old 02-08-2013, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Monomach View Post
Using the Jets as an example, if you look at last year's version of them, they spent 6M in first-year cap just from rounds 1-7. It'll cost more this year (rookie wage scale goes up each season). If the Jets have extra picks from trades, it'll be more. If they have compensatory picks, tack on even more. Their draft class is going to include some UDFAs, because, after all, no team signs zero UDFAs. Some of them cost more than 4th-7th rounders.

If they only have their original 7 picks and sign an averagish number of 6 UDFAs (with none of them being of the better and more expensive variety...strictly minimums for this example), they get to 9M. That's no extra picks from trades and no compensatory picks...and not accounting for the growth in what they're forced to pay by the rookie wage scale (I don't know how much it went up). Now that I look closer instead of guessing like before, I'd call 9M the minimum they'll need.
This is what I'm reading

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2012/05...alary-cap.html

Quote:
If all of that is not known, a reasonable estimate for most teams this season can be made by starting with each team's rookie pool, then subtracting $465,000 for each draft pick in the first four rounds and $390,000 for each draft pick in the fifth, sixth or seventh rounds. For example, a team with a rookie pool of $5 million and one draft pick in each round will use approximately $1.97 million of cap room to sign all of its rookies ($5 million, minus the $1.86 million for the four players displaced in the team's top 51, minus $1.17 million for the three late-round draftees whose base salaries won't count against the cap). Using this method might not be precise for every team, but it will provide a pretty good estimate.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:31 PM    (permalink
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What he's talking about is the absolute minimum needed to get them under contract at that exact moment...just to get the legally signed. It doesn't account for keeping them. The amount needed to actually keep them is exponentially higher. Even the very last pick of the first round just by himself accounted for 2/3 of the number he gave for the whole class. A top ten pick will cost at least 20% more cap space than what he estimated for an entire class.

The Rule of 51 isn't so good for accounting for the rookie class because it's an offseason-only calculation. When the season starts, all of those guys start counting for the actual money unless they're cut.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:40 PM    (permalink
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Lets not forget that Santonio Holmes counts 12.2 mill against the cap next year. This Jets cap situation is just a joke that keeps on delivering on so many levels. Wasn´t Mike Tannenbaum considered to be a good "cap-guy" a while back?
He did a lot of restructuring. He looked like a genius with the cap 2-3 years ago but the Jets are paying for it now.
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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Lets not forget that Santonio Holmes counts 12.2 mill against the cap next year. This Jets cap situation is just a joke that keeps on delivering on so many levels. Wasn´t Mike Tannenbaum considered to be a good "cap-guy" a while back?
IMO cap situations league wide closer reflect ownership than GM. It's little coincidence the teams who consistently have the most cap tend to be owned by the "cheap" owners.

And then you have owners that definitely want to throw their cash around. They may bring in guys who are considered "cap guys" to GM, but their job isn't to produce ample cap room every offseason, their job is to try and facilitate the owner's whims and directions on spending while still being able to get under the cap limit.
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:59 PM    (permalink
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I believe the 49ers could free up to 10.5 million extra by getting rid of Alex Smith and David Akers. Parys Haralson is also another cap casualty possibility but he provides important OLB depth, albeit at a high salary for a regular backup.

Top priority in UFA is Dashon Goldson. Some other decent role players in Delanie Walker and Ricky Jean-Francois but i think they'll get overpaid in FA and it wouldn't be smart for the 49ers to do that. Other than Goldson and possibly re-signing some ST players i don't think they'll re-sign anyone else.

After that, i think the 49ers will go after some bargain FA's- my personal favorite is getting Danny Amendola to be our slot WR/Punt returner. We could really use a quick shifty slot guy who can pick up first downs. He's a younger, cheaper Wes Welker, but also much more injury prone which i'm hoping will drive his price down. I'd be very surprised if they went after a big name FA.

After that, the draft (anywhere from 11-14 picks) +other extensions like Crabtree, Anthony Davis, Iupati, can possibly be taken care of.

I think the worst contract on the team is Carlos Rogers. Good player but getting paid like $7M per year which i don't think he's worth.
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:43 AM    (permalink
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My method for estimating rookie contracts is to take the total value of the contracts of the rookies who were drafted in the same position last year that you draft in this year. So the Chiefs will take Andrew Luck's contract, Coby Fleener's contract etc... Take the total values of all the contracts and take 18.2% that number. That will be the probable amount they will spend on drafted rookies. The first year of rookie contracts in the first round is on average something like 18.18% of their total contract (and almost every player is exactly at this mark). This number goes up (but not drastically) as you get to the end of the draft. Because 1st rounders get the most money it is better to average it in their direction than others when thinking of the total sum.

Obviously this calculation doesn't take in UDFA but they are overwhelmingly rookie minimum contracts anyway.
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Old 02-09-2013, 08:57 PM    (permalink
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I believe the 49ers could free up to 10.5 million extra by getting rid of Alex Smith and David Akers. Parys Haralson is also another cap casualty possibility but he provides important OLB depth, albeit at a high salary for a regular backup.

Top priority in UFA is Dashon Goldson. Some other decent role players in Delanie Walker and Ricky Jean-Francois but i think they'll get overpaid in FA and it wouldn't be smart for the 49ers to do that. Other than Goldson and possibly re-signing some ST players i don't think they'll re-sign anyone else.

After that, i think the 49ers will go after some bargain FA's- my personal favorite is getting Danny Amendola to be our slot WR/Punt returner. We could really use a quick shifty slot guy who can pick up first downs. He's a younger, cheaper Wes Welker, but also much more injury prone which i'm hoping will drive his price down. I'd be very surprised if they went after a big name FA.

After that, the draft (anywhere from 11-14 picks) +other extensions like Crabtree, Anthony Davis, Iupati, can possibly be taken care of.

I think the worst contract on the team is Carlos Rogers. Good player but getting paid like $7M per year which i don't think he's worth.
QB Alex Smith ($8.5m for 2013, $16m total over the next two seasons)
WR Mario Manningham ($3.85m)
C Jonathan Goodwin ($3.7m)
OLB Parys Haralson ($2.57m)
CB Carlos Rogers ($5.85m for 2013, $20.05m total over the next three seasons)
K David Akers ($3.00m)

$27.47m total for 2013, $49.17m total over the next three seasons.

If it was up to me, all six of these guys would be gone. Smith isnt needed plus he wants to be a starter. While the team will try to trade him, they should release him instead. Smith has been a true professional and management isnt going to get anything thats worth the hassle of trying to trade him when every team knows that he'll be released. Manningham was doing good until his injury and from recent reports, he wont be fully healed until the end of training camp or pre-season. I wouldnt even waste the time on him. Goodwin is the weak link on the OL, is old and at almost $4m, he should also be long gone. Haralson was missed but not enough to keep at over $2.5m Can easily get a younger and cheaper player for at least four years which would probably be less than Haralson's 2013 base salary. Rogers sucks. I didnt want him to be re-signed a year ago. Has declined, is old and not worth his contract. Should be gone. Akers sucked in the second half of the season and isnt worth his contract at his age. Overall, those four players would total $27.47m in cap room for this off-season alone.

Add in whatever cap room that they carry over from 2012 and the cap room they'll get from letting UFA's such as Moss, Ginn, Walker, Leonard Davis, Sopoaga, Jean Francois, Grant and Gooden leave, the team will have a LOT of cap room for 2013.

Only must re-sign should be FS Dashon Goldson who was at $6.2m under the franchise tag. If no long term deal can be reached, 49ers will most likely franchise tag him again and from what I have read, its under $7m. I would like the team to re-sign Jean Francois, Grant, Gooden and Walker if he doesnt demand a lot of money. Grant and Gooden should be cheap to re-sign and if Willis/Bowman were to get injured, im confident that Grant can fill in with minimal difference since he did it already a year ago.

As for UFA's from other teams, I have no interest in Amendola plus I dont see the Rams letting him go. When healthy, he's one of the better slot receivers but he's missed 20 of the last 32 games. Not worth the money or risk.

Only UFA I really want is WR Mike Wallace. Dont care if he costs $10-$12m a season. He's easily worth it and with Kaepernick's arm strength and accuracy, we need that outside WR who can stretch the field and add more explosiveness to the offense. After Wallace, Bowe would be great but i prefer Wallace as he's EXACTLY what this team needs at WR. Davis is awesome. Crabtree has finally emerged but we need another weapons especially if injuries hit us next year. Wallace is that perfect weapon.

Draft wise, another pass rushing OLB, a 3-4 DE to eventually replace Justin Smith, backup depth at OT, OG and a starting C would be great. Can definitely see majority of those needs being filled with the Draft.

As for those other players, they wont be UFA's until the 2015 off-season and can be addressed next off-season. Management has to go after winning the Super Bowl next season. They cant wait or expect average second or third tier players to get them to where they need to go. They have to start quicker in games and score more points (Wallace) while adding youth via the draft to the defense before they get old.
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:20 PM    (permalink
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Replacing Sopoaga, Goodwin, Manningham, and Rodgers all through the draft will be very hard to do but we do have 4 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. I still think it's possible to get an additional 3rd rounder for Alex, which would be huge for us.
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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Saints cap hits that will likely be cut:
DE Will Smith ($14.5 mil - $9 mil base)
LB Jonathan Vilma ($8.6 mil - $4.8 mil base)
S Roman Harper ($7.1 mil - $5.25 mil base)
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Old 02-09-2013, 10:46 PM    (permalink
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Smith isnt needed plus he wants to be a starter. While the team will try to trade him, they should release him instead. Smith has been a true professional and management isnt going to get anything thats worth the hassle of trying to trade him when every team knows that he'll be released.
Teams that want him without any significant cap room would definitely be willing to give up a late round pick for him. Arizona fits that criteria, but they'd have to choose between getting a draft pick or having him in the same division.
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Old 02-10-2013, 01:02 AM    (permalink
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Replacing Sopoaga, Goodwin, Manningham, and Rodgers all through the draft will be very hard to do but we do have 4 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. I still think it's possible to get an additional 3rd rounder for Alex, which would be huge for us.
No team is going to give up a 3rd rounder for Smith plus pay him $8.5m for 2013. I dont see him being traded at all. Think the team will try, wont have any offers and he'll be released before his roster bonus is due.

As for the other players - Wallace (or Bowe) would replace Manningham who quite honestly isnt expected to be back until pre-season and I wouldnt wait to see how he recovers from his injury when I could take his salary and put it towards signing Wallace. Sopoaga would get replaced by Jean Francois who I would like to see play NT instead of DE. Rogers gets replaced by Culliver who should be a starter opposite Brown. Draft a CB to play nickel. Goodwin gets replaced by a monster center in the draft or Kilgore. Either way, its an upgrade over Goodwin.

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Teams that want him without any significant cap room would definitely be willing to give up a late round pick for him. Arizona fits that criteria, but they'd have to choose between getting a draft pick or having him in the same division.
Would be shocked if the Cardinals traded for Alex Smith and I would be even more surprised if the 49ers traded him there. Dont think any team would trade for Smith because that team would have to pay $8.5m for him plus give up a draft pick. Knowing that he'll get released if no team trades for him, it makes more sense for whatever team(s) that want him to wait until the 49ers release him. Granted, teams could get involved in a bidding war but I dont really see that happening either. I would be shocked if Smith doesnt end up in CLE with KC the runner up.
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Old 02-10-2013, 01:48 AM    (permalink
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Base salary is what you would save by cutting them right?

Kevin Kolb $9MM
Adam Snyder $2.9MM

use the $11.9MM on Jake Long, Draft Warmack, Draft Wilson/Barkley, Success!
I don't think they'll get rid of Kolb. He'll fit in pretty well with Bruce Arians and was actually pretty good when he wasn't hurt. They need to fix the OL, get a TE or two, and find a QB to develop.

I think Fisher is pretty much a lock for them at #8 at this point.
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Old 02-10-2013, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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Moves the Bears should make:

-Franchise Melton (add 8.3 mil)
-Cut Hester (save 2 mil)
-Cut Kellen Davis (save 2.5 mil)
-Cut Matt Spaeth (save 1.6 mil)

So that would leave us at 11.1 million left to deal with Urlacher, Roach, and Idonije. I'd probably let Idonije walk because you have good backups in Wooten and Shea and then resign either Urlacher or Roach. Roach would be the more economical of the two, but if Urlacher is serious about coming back on the cheap for 1 or 2 more years I might go that route since Urlacher sells tickets/merchandise and is still a hell of a linebacker when healthy.

The rest would go for rainy day/rookie salaries, or maybe signing an offensive lineman worth a damn.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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Looks like the Bills saved $6.4 million from the Barnett and Wilson cuts. They were looking on the downside but both will need to be replaced with starting quality, of course. A couple of 4th-round picks that were gradually worked in last year are currently slated to do so, and I'd certainly like something better. Need a lot of revamping in that area.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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Looks like the Bills saved $6.4 million from the Barnett and Wilson cuts. They were looking on the downside but both will need to be replaced with starting quality, of course. A couple of 4th-round picks that were gradually worked in last year are currently slated to do so, and I'd certainly like something better. Need a lot of revamping in that area.
They're already taken into account on the list.

They're not really on the downside, though. Both were still good players last season. Barnett graded out as the ninth-best 4-3 OLB. If you take out the two games against NE in which he was somehow expected to cover Welker and Woodhead (which no one has really been able to do), he'd have been the third-best.

Wilson graded out as the eighth-best SS.

These cuts were about money, not performance.
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Old 02-11-2013, 03:05 PM    (permalink
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Oh, I'm sorry. Didn't realize about the grades. I probably shouldn't make generalizations based on the 16 games I was able to catch.

Neither one was as good as they were two years ago.
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Old 02-11-2013, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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Oh, I'm sorry. Didn't realize about the grades. I probably shouldn't make generalizations based on the 16 games I was able to catch.

Neither one was as good as they were two years ago.
The people doing the grading watched every snap they played on All-22 film in slow motion and in real-time. They're the same people who starting hyping Kyle Williams in 2008 when everyone else accused him of being garbage.

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Old 02-11-2013, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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Yawn. Kyle Williams was pretty obviously good then. I think more people just didn't care about the Bills than were thinking he was garbage, which would have been moronic.
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Old 02-11-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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PFF gets crapped on a lot because some people act like their grades are 100% fact. They are far from perfect, but PFF is still the most accurate judge of individual player performance I've come across. I trust them more than I trust some random fan who watches their team every week.
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