Originally Posted by Shupp
Yes sir, I'm on board with releasing or trading (Smith) everyone of those guys you mentioned as well as NOT re-signing Sopoaga. So with 28 million that leaves the following positions to be filled:
C (Kilgore a possibility but I'd like to see someone added)
It would be nice to fill at least one of these replacement needs via free agency because I'd like to see us draft at least one DE and one Safety (even if Goldston is re-signed) in the the 1st 5 rounds for depth.
WR and CB seem the most promising talent wise as far as the FA class goes. I think we'd be taking a greater risk of overpaying by targeting CB's such as DRC or Sean Smith though. The same goes for Nnamdi if he becomes a free agent.
Wallace and Bowe are far less of a risk of becoming a bust imo. One player who may become a free agent soon that would be intriguing is DHB. At 6'2 and having 4.30 speed he would be a legit option to stretch the field although his hands are only average at best. DHB could probably be had for around $4mill/yr (Stephen Hill would have also provided elite stretching ability :()
As far as Jenkings goes I really hope he comes on soon, I can't stand the thought of that whole draft class being a non-factor for another year. I did think it was funny to see how similar Jenkins is to Wallace in some respects. I wouldn't be surprised if he was drafted with Wallace's skill set in mind.
I would release Smith, Manningham, Goodwin, Akers, Dobbs, Tukuafu, Haralson and Rogers. These eight players would save $28.97m in cap room AFTER cap hits due to signing bonuses/guaranteed money. Six of these eight players will be UFA's in 2014. The two exceptions are Smith and Rogers who also happen to be the two most expensive players.
Here's the 11 UFA's that we have who'll be off the books once the new league year starts - Jacobs/$1.575m (yes, I know he's already gone but his 2012 salary isnt off the books until the new league year starts), Moss/$2.5m, Ginn/$1.375m, Walker/$1.905m, L. Davis/$950k, Sopoaga/$4.955m, Jean Francois/$626k, Haggans/$1m, Grant/$1.26m, Gooden/$540k and Goldson/$6.212m under the franchise tag. These 11 players would add $22.898m in cap room. Adding that to the $28.97m from releasing those eight players would total $51.868m in cap room not counting whatever cap room they're carrying over from 2012 which I think was under $1m. Basically, $52m in cap room. My opinion of these 11 UFA's -
Jacobs - Nothing really to be said. Long gone. Never wanted. Good riddance.
Moss - Waste of $2.5m. Also never wanted. Was hoping he was going to break out but even as a starter in the Super Bowl, he was our 4th best receiver after Davis, Crabtree and Walker. That's just sad for a guy who claims that he's the greatest WR of all time. Dont want his complaining old washed up ass anywhere near SF in 2013.
Walker - Kaepernick's second favorite target after Crabtree. Must re-sign. I would go as high as $5m per season on a 3 year deal. Only complaint is his number of drops but because he can do so much on offense in regards to creating mismatches and where he can line up at the LOS, I think that he's the second UFA that we should definitely re-sign.
L. Davis - Old washed up veteran. Bye bye.
Sopoaga - Only played in 35% of the defensive snaps because we played nickel defense majority of the time which uses Smith/Smith/McDonald/Brooks as the front four with Willis/Bowman at LB and 5 defensive backs. Not needed. Is 31 or 32 years old. Forget which. Either way, goodbye.
Jean Francois - Third player on my re-sign list. Not a must but I dont think he'll demand a lot of money at all. Would pay him between $2-3m a season. Would like to see him play NT when we're in base 3-4 sets. Can play DE. Also, dont want only one NT (Ian Williams) going into the draft.
Haggans - Old and washed up. Done. Bye bye.
Grant - For $2m or less a season, I would keep him because if Willis or Bowman get injured and miss games, im confident that Grant can step right in and the defense wouldnt lose much at all. Grant proved that in 2011 when Willis was injured. Is still young and is good on special teams.
Gooden - For $1m or less a season, I would keep him because he's excellent on special teams and after losing Costanzo a year ago, I dont want to see him leave too. Good veteran presence but still young and worth keeping in my opinion at that price or less.
Goldson - Easily, our number one UFA and priority number one is to re-sign him to a long term deal. I would go as high as $8m a season on a 4 year deal. At worse, he'll be franchised again at $7.5m which to be honest, isnt that bad at all for a "TOP TEN FS". :P
With $52m in cap room, even if you subtract $8m for Goldson, $5m for Walker, $3m for Jean Francois, $2m for Grant and $1m for Gooden, that would leave $33m in cap room for 2013. Even if you max out at $12m for Wallace for 2013, that still leaves $21m in cap room. No way the entire draft class surpasses $11m total. By the way, I LOVE that there's a rookie draft class salary cap. No more overpaying rookies. I love that and its exactly the way it should be.
That still leaves $10m in cap room. Only other free agent I would go after would be a veteran QB to backup Kaepernick. Whether it be a Hasselbeck, McCoy, Josh Johnson, Fitzpatrick or whoever would be available, it wouldnt matter because I dont want the backup QB being a threat or anything to Kaepernick. I want to make sure that there's no doubt or question who the starting QB is even if Kaepernick was to decline but I honestly dont think that would happen unless half the offense gets injured. Veteran QB would be cheap, probably minimum. If cant sign one by training camp, I just go with Tolzien because after all, no point in keeping him either if he's not at least capable of being the backup to Kaepernick. My preference would be Josh Johnson because he would be a cheap veteran who was here already.
The rest of the cap room could be held onto going into the season in case of injuries. Once maybe November or December hits, I would try to extend players like Whitner, Brown, Justin Smith, etc. who's contracts expire a year from now unless of course by that time, any of them have declined to where they're not worth extending.
As for FA, I would only go after Wallace (and Josh Johnson if available or wait for a veteran QB to be released). Thats it. No need to go after anyone else because with 11 draft picks, all the other players that I would release or let leave as UFA's can be replaced by younger, cheaper players with at least four year contracts who have far bigger upside and potential.
Draft wise, im hoping for the best 3-4 RDE at 31 who'll fit our defense, has a high motor, can backup and eventually replace Justin Smith.
Second round would be the best pass rushing OLB to replace Haralson/Haggans. Again, from what I have read, this is supposed to be perhaps the deepest position in the draft so I think that we can easily get one. This guy would backup Aldon/Brooks and give them a break when needed. Would allow us to move on from Haralson. Would NOT let this guy play special teams though because as a situational pass rusher, I would want to make sure there's as little chance of him getting injured as possible. Darius Fleming/Cam Johnson would battle it our for the 4th OLB spot.
Third round would be for the best possible center unless Kilgore is ready. Either way is fine by me. I just want that young center/QB combination to be set instead of a veteran (Goodwin) who'll be gone in 2014 anyway.
Other positions would be a nickelback (I actually want that Mathieu guy because despite his problems, he's a turnover machine. Since we declined in getting turnovers on defense last season compared to 2011, that alone makes him worth the risk) and kicker to replace Akers. Probably 4th round for kicker. Second third round pick for a nickelback who's worth taking. If not, I push that down a few rounds for Mathieu.
WR (big redzone target, mid rounds)
LT to backup Staley
RG to backup Boone
RT to backup Davis
NT to be the third guy and possibly replace what Sopoaga/Tukuafu do on offense in the power running game
LDE to replace Dobbs/Tukuafu/whoever backs up McDonald.
That would be my plan. Granted, losing four starters (Manningham, Goodwin, Sopoaga and Rogers) may seem hard to replace but since Sopoaga was used 1/3 of the time and is over 30, Goodwin also being over 30 and one year left on his contract, Manningham having one year on his contract and is expected to be on the PUP list for the first six weeks of the season and Rogers who quite honestly sucks in my opinion and shouldnt have been re-signed a year ago, we're not losing much/if anything. If anything, adding better talent, youth is actually a far better idea short term and long term.
Wallace replaces Manningham, Kilgore or a rookie replaces Goodwin on offense. 9/11 starters return with youth replacing Goodwin and Wallace being an upgrade over Manningham/Moss/Williams/Jenkins/Ginn/whoever.
On defense, Jean Francois steps into the NT role which wouldnt make much of a difference because the NT doesnt play a lot in our defensive scheme. Normally, a NT is arguably the most important position in a 3-4 defense but not for the way Fangio runs it. Culliver replaces Rogers as a starter which he should have done this past season. Cox moves into nickel or stays in dime depending on the drafted rookie CB. 9/11 starters return.
To me, the turnover sounds and looks worse than what it actually is. 14 players total would be gone based on who I would let leave as UFA's and released players. Minimum of 11 players get added via the draft with only ONE of the 11 being a possible starter in 2013 (center) while the rest provide young, cheap backup depth and special teams ability. Wallace replaces the second WR and eventually, a veteran backup QB replaces Smith.
Of course, except for Smith, I dont see any of those players getting released before FA starts or if at all. I think Baalke/Harbaugh are going to keep the entire team intact and hope they can win the Super Bowl next year with the same exact team that lost the Super Bowl this year. Yes, I realize that this doenst make any sense whatsoever but thats what I think Baalke/Harbaugh are going to do.
Except for Goldson, our UFA's are all 50/50 on returning. Walker is probably the only other UFA who might be higher than 50/50 in returning.
I already know that this team isnt going after Wallace (or Bowe) and will probably just add some average, injury prone or old washed up veteran WR for depth. Any FA signings will be minor at best. Granted, could always find a damn good player in those minor signings but to be honest, I dont see that happening because the starters are already pretty much set.
Either way, just have to wait and see what happens.