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Old 02-16-2013, 02:54 AM    (permalink
Byrd430
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Default Mock Draft 1.0

This is my first mock of the season, only 1 round for now. I will release 7 total mocks, all of which will include an additional round (2.0=2 rds, 3.0=3 rds, etc.).

Criticism is not only welcome...it is wanted! I'd like to get as much knowledge about your team as possible.


1. Kansas City - OT LUKE JOECKEL (Texas A&M)
***I know a few of you guys would like to see Geno here, and really the best thing KC can do is drop down a few spots and pick him. If KC really thinks Geno is their franchise QB, then by all means, they should select him regardless of value. However, I don't think that's the case. Even if they re-sign Branden Albert, they could still add Joeckel who could play either T spot, and gives them 2 good-to-elite starters on the line.

2. Jacksonville - DE Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
***I really think Mingo is going to rise, and he will perhaps challenge for the #1 spot. Jax finished last with just 20 sacks last season and needs a pass rusher - which is exactly what Mingo brings to the table.

3. Oakland - DT Star Lotuleilei (Utah)
***Another guy who will challenge for #1, Star can be a versatile commodity for the Raiders' D-Line. He's also a physical freak (something the Raiders are known for drafting), is A+ at shutting down the run, and is capable of generating some inside pressure - all things that can instantly make the Raiders D' better.

4. Philadelphia - CB Dee Milliner (Alabama)
***I've had this pick for a while, and I wanted to change it, but it's just the best fit. Milliner could possibly start right away and is more than capable of handling coverage, particularly in a zone-heavy defense.

5. Detroit - DE Bjoern Werner (Florida State)
***If Milliner falls here, I think Detroit has to get him to help out their secondary. However, End is a big need as well with multiple free agents leaving the position empty. Werner is above average against the run as well as the pass and should provide some stability next to Fairley and Suh.

6. Cleveland - DE/OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon)
***I think Mingo is the perfect fit for Cleveland, but with him gone, they go to the next best thing, which is Jordan. Jordan is still raw, but his length and athleticism provides a lot of upside for a guy capable of getting double digit sacks. Needs to develop against the run, but still showcases the physical ability to set the edge.

7. Arizona - OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)
***Fisher blocked everything moving at the Sr. Bowl, and clearly he looked the part of an everyday lineman in the NFL. He's not a run-blocking mauler, which makes me hesitant to make the pick considering AZ's need to improve the running game, but he can certainly hold his own. In today's NFL, Fisher's ability to pass protect makes him very valuable, particularly when AZ plays teams like SF and SEA who both have dangerous pass rushers. AZ could go QB in the 2nd Rd, so getting the guy to protect him in the 1st is not a bad way to go.

8. Buffalo - QB Geno Smith (West Virginia)
***Went back and forth on this pick, but with a new HC in place and the fact that Fitz badly underplayed his contract this past season, I think Buffalo will not hesitate to take the draft's #1 QB with the 8th pick. Smith is a gifted athlete, but I don't think he's the next Kaepernick or RGIII by any means, but is capable of extending the play and escaping pressure while also displaying a strong arm.

9. NY Jets - S Kenny Vaccarro (Texas)
***I'm really high on Vaccarro as he is easily the best S in the draft and a top 5 defensive player. Vaccarro hasn't exactly been a ballhawk, which may hurt his perception some considering the reps of past stars like Ed Reed, but he's got excellent recognition and coverage skills and can deliver the big hit as well. He's a weapon as a blitzer as well and offers solid run support.

10. Tennessee - OG Chance Warmack (Alabama)
***My top rated player in 2013, Warmack is capable of elevating an entire running offense. Warmack is about the safest bet to become a 10-yr starter and multiple All-Pro, and is worth the top pick, especially considering that G is the Titans' biggest need.

11. San Diego - OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
***Almost went in another direction, and I do feel that LJ is a bit of a reach here, however, SD absolutely HAS to get some help on a dismal offensive line.

12. Miami - DE Damontre Moore (Texas A&M)
***Almost went WR here, but I feel like Moore has better value and serves as an upgrade along the line.

13. Tampa Bay - DT Shariff Floyd (Florida)
***While most mocks have TB getting a corner, I think DT could be just as big a need. Gerald McCoy is one of the best DTs in the game, but outside of him, they have nothing else. Combining Floyd with McCoy could give them the best set of DTs in the league.

14. Carolina - DT Sheldon Richardson (Missouri)
***This is far and away the Panthers' biggest need. The only question is which one of the handful of top prospects will they land - in this case, it's Richardson, a very disruptive defender with high upside.

15. New Orleans - OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia)
***One of the better players in the draft, I think Jones is going to drop because of his injury concerns. The Saints took a chance on another player with an injury concern (Brees) and it turned out well for them. With the move to a 3-4 defense, Jones can become that pass-rushing OLB the Saints need to wreak havoc.

16. St. Louis - DT Sylvester Williams (UNC)
***Cordarelle Patterson is a better pick IMO, but Jeff Fisher has never been the type to grab receivers in the first round, despite needing one for the majority of his time in Tennessee. The Rams have spent a lot of high picks on the line in recent years, but they still need improvement, particularly in the middle, where Williams is capable of taking on double teams, creating opportunities for his LBs, and clogging up running lanes.

17. Pittsburgh - ILB Alec Ogletree (Georgia)
***Ogletree is a good fit for the Steelers, who will lose a few vets this offseason. Ogletree is a sideline to sideline defender with plenty of range who offers excellent run support, flashes oodles of potential as a pass rusher, and is a natural playmaker.

18. Dallas - DT Kawaan Short (Purdue)
***Dallas absolutely MUST rebuild their lines, particularly the interior of both. If Warmack is available, he's a must have, and Cooper drew some interest here as well, but Dallas is putting more emphasis on the defense this year. Short has been productive and durable and is able to work upfield. He'll be a great DT for Monte Kiffin's new Tampa 2 defense.

19. NY Giants - DE Ezekial Ansah (BYU)
***I've heard comparisons between Ansah and JPP, so why not put them on the same team? Ansah is a feared pass rusher (and still can improve), and his versatility (has played NT, DT, DE, OLB) will be well-liked in NY.

20. Chicago - OG Jonathan Cooper (UNC)
***Chicago could go other areas here, but visions of Cutler yelling at his O-Line is at the forefront of my mind. The Bears can be serious contenders, and keeping Cutler upright would certainly aid that. Oh, and Matt Forte would be happy with the pick as well.

21. Cincinnati - RB Eddie Lacy (Alabama)
***Maybe a bit of a reach, but Green-Ellis squeezed a 1,000-yd season with a decent average - he was nothing close to a playmaker. Lacy has a chance to add a whole new dimension to the Bengals offense as a powerful downhill runner who won't be taken down easily.

22. Washington - CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (UConn)
***Washington finished towards the bottom in passing defense - in part because of a lack of pass rush outside of Orakpo and the other because of a lack of depth at the corner position. Wreh-Wilson leads a pack of contenders for the second corner taken behind Milliner, and is an excellent press corner with good coverage skills.

23. Minnesota - WR Cordarelle Patterson (Tennessee)
***Minny's offense ran through Harvin through the first half of the season, so they MUST replace him if he ends up leaving as has been talked about.

24. Indianapolis - DT Jonathan Hankins (Ohio St)
***Indy's Dline needs some guys who can help now. Hankins is a one-dimensional player, but he eats up space in the middle and will make his living on stuffing the interior running game.

25. Seattle - WR Keenan Allen (California)
***Seattle could use some pass rushers at all positions, but the defense for Seattle performed well, plus they can get part-time pass rushers later in the draft. Seattle could use some more reinforcements at WR, and Allen can become the team's #1 down the line.

26. Green Bay - ILB Manti Te'o (Notre Dame)
***Te'o at one point was considered for the Heisman as well as a top ten pick, but he's fallen after a poor showing in the Nat'l Championship game as well as the entire GF-hoax ordeal. Teo was highly productive, has great measurables for the position, and is a leader who can become an Urlacher like force for the Packers.

27. Houston - DT Jonathan Jenkins (Georgia)
***Imagine having a guy like this eating up space and commanding double teams. J.J. Watt will love playing beside him and the 'backers will love playing around him, giving them much more space to operate. Thought about giving this team a receiver because once AJ goes down, they have very little else. However, a receiver can be gotten later, particularly from a deep group with little separation between them.

28. Denver - DE Sam Montgomery (LSU)
***Scheme versatile, Montgomery can handle either end spot on a 4-down scheme, or move to OLB in a 3-man scheme - and anywhere he goes, he's going to be a force against the run. He's not a great pass rusher though, but on a team featuring Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, he doesn't have to be.

29. New England - S Matt Elam (Florida)
***I've heard the Belichick likes this guy, and with secondary being a weak part of the Pats for the last couple of years (and arguably the reason for their departure as well). Elam is a bit undersized, but he plays all over the field and gives the Pats a ballhawk on their back end.

30. Atlanta - CB Johnthan Banks (Miss. State)
***Banks is chosen as a natural, physical cover guy to play alongside and eventually replace Asante Samuel (age 32). Banks can get beaten deep by faster receivers, but with playmaking safeties behind him, the Falcons aren't too concerned with that.

31. San Francisco - DT Jesse Williams (Alabama)
***Really, really, REALLY wanted to go TE with Ertz or Eifert or one of the next tier of corners (Trufant?) here, but ultimately, SF is going to need help on the D-Line as their starters age and leave. Could replace Sopoaga immediately, though he will need some development.

32. Baltimore - ILB Kevin Minter (LSU)
***Will have the unfortunate task of replacing Ray Lewis, and the Ravens really like him.
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Old 02-16-2013, 03:04 AM    (permalink
gonzo1105
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Well your first problem is that you have Washington picking 22nd when that pick belongs to the Rams. I think Ogletree is a terrible pick for the Steelers because he has trouble disengaging blocks and him being on the inside of a 3-4 system doesn't make much sense to me. Ogletree is a 4-3 OLB only in my opinion.

Be prepared for the Chiefs fans in 3.....2......1....
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Old 02-16-2013, 03:11 AM    (permalink
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I like this Niner pick a lot.
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I dunno even half of those guys why did we sign them jeez.
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Old 02-16-2013, 08:10 AM    (permalink
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If the Chiefs re-sign Branden Albert they'll already have two elite starters at the tackle spots.. Branden Albert and Eric Winston, who they signed last offseason.

OT is not a need.
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Old 02-16-2013, 09:07 AM    (permalink
TheMatriculator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vidae View Post
If the Chiefs re-sign Branden Albert they'll already have two elite starters at the tackle spots.. Branden Albert and Eric Winston, who they signed last offseason.

OT is not a need.
Exactly and for educational purposes, THIS Eric Winston...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...ackles/page/33

Even after a year with Brian Daboll, he's still considered by most to be an elite RT.
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Old 02-16-2013, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vidae View Post
If the Chiefs re-sign Branden Albert they'll already have two elite starters at the tackle spots.. Branden Albert and Eric Winston, who they signed last offseason.

OT is not a need.
IF they re-sign him its not a need. Its no foregone conclusion. Plus Joeckel would cost about 4/24 or so, with an option year, while Alberts going to cost what, 6/75? If you can get a first from a team like Chicago for him, I think you consider it. Especially if you like Foles.
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Old 02-16-2013, 09:20 AM    (permalink
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Exactly and for educational purposes, THIS Eric Winston...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...ackles/page/33

Even after a year with Brian Daboll, he's still considered by most to be an elite RT.
First of all, that list is complete garbage. They arguably had 3 of the top 5 in the 20s(Cherilus,Franklin,Davis). Winston is pretty good, so no hate there, but he's not a top 5 RT. He's limited as a pass blocker and there's a reason he wasn't all that sought out. How much did he get on that last contract?
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Old 02-16-2013, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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First of all, that list is complete garbage. They arguably had 3 of the top 5 in the 20s(Cherilus,Franklin,Davis). Winston is pretty good, so no hate there, but he's not a top 5 RT. He's limited as a pass blocker and there's a reason he wasn't all that sought out. How much did he get on that last contract?
I don't much care for Bleacher Report but the fact that they listed him as #1 a year ago says something for his ability to play the position. You certainly wouldn't bench him just to play musical chairs much less with a guy who has never played RT before. Byrd430 asked for criticism and I gave it. I on the other hand didn't ask for your criticism nor do I need it.
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Old 02-16-2013, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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oh please oh please, let me kick this dead horse too!!

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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
IF they re-sign him its not a need. Its no foregone conclusion. Plus Joeckel would cost about 4/24 or so, with an option year, while Alberts going to cost what, 6/75? If you can get a first from a team like Chicago for him, I think you consider it. Especially if you like Foles.
i could give a **** about which LT is cheaper. i want the LT that is the best. right now, it isn't even an arguement which is better. Albert is a top 10 LT right now. Joeckel has potential, but we have all seen a potential franchise LT bust. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Albert is in hand, wants to be a Chief long term and is a known commodity. worst case scenairo here is Albert is franchised at least 1 time. either way, LT isn't on the radar for the Chiefs. as far as trading him, i don't see the Chiefs creating a hole that they have to fill. makes no sense to make a position a need by trading away a player that wants to be here.

not many teams like their own Ts as much as the Chiefs do. Albert and Winston give this team bookend Ts that can play together for another 4-5 years. LT nor RT is anywhere close to a need.

i wont harp on the "Geno or Nothing" drum, (however i do believe they are right) but when mocking a player to the Chiefs at least look at what their needs are. look at the prospects at the top of the board and the positions they play. which 1 best fits into what the Chiefs need. Luke Joeckel is a good prospect, but doesn't fit into the Chiefs needs at all. Star would fit more of their criteria and fill an opening.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TheMatriculator View Post
I don't much care for Bleacher Report but the fact that they listed him as #1 a year ago says something for his ability to play the position. You certainly wouldn't bench him just to play musical chairs much less with a guy who has never played RT before. Byrd430 asked for criticism and I gave it. I on the other hand didn't ask for your criticism nor do I need it.
Some cheese with that whine? Jesus, you're on a message board, what do you expect?

I agree with the general theory fwiw.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:09 AM    (permalink
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oh please oh please, let me kick this dead horse too!!



i could give a **** about which LT is cheaper. i want the LT that is the best. right now, it isn't even an arguement which is better. Albert is a top 10 LT right now. Joeckel has potential, but we have all seen a potential franchise LT bust. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Albert is in hand, wants to be a Chief long term and is a known commodity. worst case scenairo here is Albert is franchised at least 1 time. either way, LT isn't on the radar for the Chiefs. as far as trading him, i don't see the Chiefs creating a hole that they have to fill. makes no sense to make a position a need by trading away a player that wants to be here.

not many teams like their own Ts as much as the Chiefs do. Albert and Winston give this team bookend Ts that can play together for another 4-5 years. LT nor RT is anywhere close to a need.

i wont harp on the "Geno or Nothing" drum, (however i do believe they are right) but when mocking a player to the Chiefs at least look at what their needs are. look at the prospects at the top of the board and the positions they play. which 1 best fits into what the Chiefs need. Luke Joeckel is a good prospect, but doesn't fit into the Chiefs needs at all. Star would fit more of their criteria and fill an opening.
I don't 100% disagree with this by any means. Albert and Winston are a very solid pair of OTs. I'm just saying that you have to take a long term approach and Reid,Dorsey and co. will have to determine how they want to allocate their assets such as cap space and draft picks. They could potentially trade Albert for a 1st and then use the difference in money to sign a really nice free agent. Maybe Talib or Mike Wallace or something like that.

Albert is better than Joeckel, because he's proven, but how much better? Twice as good? Not to mention that Joeckel arguably has more upside. Albert is good, but if you commit that kind of money to him, you have to believe that he will be one of your 3 best or at least most important players for the next 3-5 years. He becomes one of your franchise building blocks. You can only afford maybe 3 players in the 10 plus million range. I'm ok with paying Albert that kind of money, but I don't think its a decision you take lightly or make automatically because he's a good starter. He might be a top 10 LT, but others think he's not a long term fit at the position and would be a better OG or RT.

All I'm saying is, the #1 pick is pretty important. You can only ignore so much value. I want Geno for KC, but if he doesn't grade out as anywhere near being worth the pick, you can't just take him for the sake of taking him. After that, there isn't a great fit for KC IMO. They've taken 2 top 5 DTs recently and another at 11 just last year, plus I'm not sure Star is a #1 pick caliber prospect. That would be quite a stretch if you ask me. They have good pass rushers, Millner is also a reach and that's about the extent of the options. There is no perfect fit.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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The Chiefs picking Joeckel would be such a terrible, lateral move for their franchise. Just awful.

But I don't give a **** about the Chiefs so **** it.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:26 AM    (permalink
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The first overall pick is not that important. It isn't that much better than 2 or 10. People make it out to be some huge deal, but it isn't now and it never really has been. It's just another pick in the first round.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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Yup, its only special when there is a franchise player the caliber or Luck,Manning etc. available.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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The Chiefs selection could be interesting if they don't go QB.

There is a big decision to be made on Albert due to financial reasons. Sure the chiefs have cap space now but do they want to be tying that money up in Albert when it could come in handy at a later stage, or help them get another impact FA. Let's not make the decision with Albert out like it's black and white. Yes Albert is better now because he is proven, but teams get younger through the draft all the time. It isn't unheard of for teams to not resign players to big contracts if they think they can fill that void in the draft.

Now the issue with Joeckel is, does Reid think it is a forward step by not resigning Albert and picking Joeckel? Sure it will likely save $40m+ over the length of the contract, but can KC attract top FAs with that extra money, and if not where does it go?

Will drafting Joeckel and signing a guy like Talib or Sean Smith make them better than taking Geno Smith and keeping Albert? I'm not sure what this regime thinks but the last one didn't see the need in stock piling at CB and let Carr walk.

Keeping Albert and drafting anyone but Smith doesn't make much sense to me at this point. The only thing Joeckel has going for him in this race is that he is a much cheaper option than Albert. Every man and his dog knows the Chiefs desperately need a QB. The big question is does Reid believe he can get more from Joeckel, a marquee FA and a guy like Nassib or Glennon in the second or Albert and Geno???

I gotta think KC play it safe here and take Geno and resign Albert
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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If the Chiefs re-sign Branden Albert they'll already have two elite starters at the tackle spots.. Branden Albert and Eric Winston, who they signed last offseason.

OT is not a need.
agreed and we have Donald Stephenson on standby if something happened to either of them
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Don't know how the hell I left the Redskins with a first round pick - clearly wasn't thinking....

As for the Albert/Joeckel debate - I've been wrestling with this since the Chiefs clinched a #1 pick.


Is there any thought about re-signing Albert and moving him inside to Guard? You still have 2 good bookends, and now you have a top 5 guard as well, which is a position that KC could use some depth/upgrade at.

If I don't mock Joeckel here, I thought about Star Lotuleilei, even if KC has spent premium picks on the line in the past couple drafts.

Geno Smith obviously was a thought, but damn...

I also thought about B. Mingo here. I know he's not there quite yet, but I think Mingo is really going to rise up the draft boards, and if he has a good combine, I could see him going #1 overall and become a dynamic pass rusher for this defense. It's not the biggest need, by any means, but someone once told me you can never have enough pass rushers.


There is no value=need here, and Dee Milliner would actually be the closest to it.... I'm really struggling here coming up with something. If KC can trade down, it'd be the best thing they could do, they could still get a player of need with good value and add additional picks or a veteran capable of shoring up another area of need...
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Old 02-16-2013, 01:16 PM    (permalink
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There is no way on God's green earth that KC drafts OL , if they don't go Geno they will either trade down or Andy Reid is not a complete moron they could desperately need some upgrades along the D-Line which is where Star would be a definite fit.
I honestly don't think Pittsburgh drafts anyone with a "questionable character" like Ogletree. I think most of your draft other than that is pretty good, I would certainly be in a depressive state for quite sometime if the Pack pick up Teo' :(
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Old 02-16-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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Don't know how the hell I left the Redskins with a first round pick - clearly wasn't thinking....

As for the Albert/Joeckel debate - I've been wrestling with this since the Chiefs clinched a #1 pick.


Is there any thought about re-signing Albert and moving him inside to Guard? You still have 2 good bookends, and now you have a top 5 guard as well, which is a position that KC could use some depth/upgrade at.

If I don't mock Joeckel here, I thought about Star Lotuleilei, even if KC has spent premium picks on the line in the past couple drafts.

Geno Smith obviously was a thought, but damn...

I also thought about B. Mingo here. I know he's not there quite yet, but I think Mingo is really going to rise up the draft boards, and if he has a good combine, I could see him going #1 overall and become a dynamic pass rusher for this defense. It's not the biggest need, by any means, but someone once told me you can never have enough pass rushers.


There is no value=need here, and Dee Milliner would actually be the closest to it.... I'm really struggling here coming up with something. If KC can trade down, it'd be the best thing they could do, they could still get a player of need with good value and add additional picks or a veteran capable of shoring up another area of need...
1. Branden Albert is not moving to Guard. He's a top 10 LT and he hasn't played OG in 5 years. He's a tackle, plain and simple. And we have 2 top 100 picks on the interior, Jeff Allen (2nd round, 2012) and Jon Asamoah (3rd round 2010). OG isn't a need either.

2. If you're projecting Mingo to be an OLB, we don't need one. We have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They're one of the better OLB combos in the NFL.

3. We're not taking a corner #1.
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Old 02-16-2013, 02:22 PM    (permalink
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Albert has also said he has no intention of playing guard. Think about this for a minute, sign him to LT money and then move him to guard? Does that make any sense? He only gave up one sack last year (some penalties, yes) so you really aren't upgrading the tackle position, just the guard. Does it make sense to take the first overall as a guard? That's basically what you are talking about. Besides, as vidae pointed out, we drafted 2 top 100 picks on the interior last year. It would foolish to draft another linemen until you know what you've got with those two.

If Geno is good enough to go 8th overall to a team that actually HAS a QB then it isn't really that much of a reach to take him 1st for a team that really has no QB at this point. When Kiper did his mock, he doesn't have any QB going in the first round. That is a very different situation.
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Old 02-16-2013, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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I gotta think KC play it safe here and take Geno and resign Albert
It really is the only thing that makes any sense. Yes, it's a reach and both Kiper and Mayock will probably run around on draft day like their hair is on fire. What's the alternative...hope a guy is still there in the second round. The Chiefs may have the greatest need for a QB but they aren't the only team that needs one. What if the QBs are all picked over by #34? Now that's a risk!
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Old 02-16-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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I'm a fan of Vaccarro but I think a Safety is a luxury pick at 9 for the Jets. They've gotten away with poor safety play in the past under Ryan (Leonhard and Smith). The Jets need to go with a pass rusher with that pick so Jones or Moore would be great picks there for the Jets.
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Old 02-16-2013, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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I really don't think the Colts need to address NT in the first round. We have capable guys and I'm still hoping Josh Chapman (who was on IR all last season) will fit as a starter.

As for who goes in his place, I really like Xavier Rhodes. He would be a nice pair with Vontae Davis giving us some physical corners. If he doesn't make the transition to CB well in the NFL then he could play S at a high level imo. That would fix the Zbikowski problem.

Other guys to consider are: Datone Jones, Fluker, Montgomery, and Trufant.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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I'm gonna make love to you after that 2nd pick.
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Old 02-17-2013, 03:57 AM    (permalink
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I would be so ******* mad if the Eagles take Milliner.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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