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Old 02-17-2013, 07:38 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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Default Very Interesting Gill Brandt Article on QB Class

Guess who is first and second?

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap10...ATL_newsdriver
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:19 AM    (permalink
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I like that Landry finished high - he's accurate about his lack of real leadership qualities, but I think his tools are worth that risk. He could be the best QB out of this class when it's all said and done.

This article seems to suggest that accuracy is a strength of EJ's, but that is simply not the case- it's clearly a weakness. I'm not not very high on Manuel at all, so any suggestion that he could be the second best QB in this draft is pure garbage IMO.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:23 AM    (permalink
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Then Brandt talks about Marqueis Gray of Minnesota to keep our eyes on... I always thought Gil has lost about 10-15 MPH off his fastball... but mentioning Gray as a QB prospect solidifies that. I like Gray... as an athlete, but as a QB there is little to like other than size and speed.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by brasho View Post
Then Brandt talks about Marqueis Gray of Minnesota to keep our eyes on... I always thought Gil has lost about 10-15 MPH off his fastball... but mentioning Gray as a QB prospect solidifies that. I like Gray... as an athlete, but as a QB there is little to like other than size and speed.
This part shows he must not have watched much football this season and his evaluations must be strictly statistical.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:57 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
This part shows he must not have watched much football this season and his evaluations must be strictly statistical.
It isn't about him watching or not, this article IS purely statistical based, that is all, and it states that right at the top.
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Old 02-18-2013, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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It isn't about him watching or not, this article IS purely statistical based, that is all, and it states that right at the top.
But to suggest Gray may be a QB to keep an eye on is absolutely laughable...he was the 3rd best QB on his own teams this year
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Old 02-18-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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But to suggest Gray may be a QB to keep an eye on is absolutely laughable...he was the 3rd best QB on his own teams this year
Keep your eye on him could mean that a team or teams may be high on him and therefore might be drafted. He didn't by any means guarantee his success in the NFL.
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Old 02-18-2013, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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Those are my top 4 quarterbacks right now. I have Bray ahead of Barkley just because I like the potential more.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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I like that Landry finished high - he's accurate about his lack of real leadership qualities, but I think his tools are worth that risk. He could be the best QB out of this class when it's all said and done.

This article seems to suggest that accuracy is a strength of EJ's, but that is simply not the case- it's clearly a weakness. I'm not not very high on Manuel at all, so any suggestion that he could be the second best QB in this draft is pure garbage IMO.
A QBs accuracy looks a lot better when their WRs do not drop passes. EJ Manuel had the lowest percentage of drops (among these prospects) at around 4% of passes. Contrary to that, Mike Glennon had almost 9% of his passes dropped.

Statistics are only good if you understand exactly what they tell you. If you start to base an opinion off of a statistic you only partially understand, then you will miss the mark in your analysis. Guaranteed.

Something else to be aware of: This list of QBs is likely curated, because most (simple) data mining models show QBs like the ones that play at TT and other spread schools that put up insane numbers as being better prospects than their obviously more NFL ready counterparts. (this could be a big reason why Geno Smith is so high...but I digress). Why is this relevant? Because it avoids prospects that are clearly priority free agents at best from appearing near the top.
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Old 02-18-2013, 05:14 PM    (permalink
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Stats without the counterbalance of watching actual complete game play are totally meaningless.

Unless of course a BCS QB completes 85% of his passes, averages 15 yards per completion in the air, throws for 5200 yards, 55 TDs and 6 INTs.

That guy you could go out on a limb and guess he's probably better than good.;)

EDIT:
Brandt took a big poop all over Glennon. His accuracy IMO is better than his raw completion percentage last season, which is virtually the same completion percentage Matt Ryan had his final season at BC(59%).


If an anonymous poster started a thread using Gil Brandt's arguments and data, he'd be neg bombed.
Brandt used to be my favorite talent evaluator of alltime. He could watch a guy practice with his college team and play a couple games and just KNOW.

Now he reminds me of my 77year old uncle who loses his shoes every time he takes them off.
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Old 02-18-2013, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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But to suggest Gray may be a QB to keep an eye on is absolutely laughable...he was the 3rd best QB on his own teams this year
Perhaps, but he is going to the Combine as a QB (though I'm sure he'll participate elsewhere). We'll see.
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Old 02-18-2013, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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I think Manuel is going to be a stud. I'm not saying exactly he's the Taller Russell Wilson, but he carries himself in the same manor. He's mobile and can run, but he's not a run first QB. He's pretty accurate with the football, smart and decisive. Consistency needs to be worked on, but I think in the right situation, this guy becomes a very good starter, maybe even better.
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Old 02-18-2013, 06:50 PM    (permalink
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EJ Manuel just doesn't have a command of the position and the intangibles once the ball is snapped that a QB like Russell Wilson has, or any top tier QBs IMO.

EJ Manuel seems very mechanical in the way he plays QB and seems to struggle to make plays within or slightly outside the offensive framework.

You watch how many future NFL players come from that 2012 FSU team on offense, then look back at how uninspired EJ Manuel's play was.

I love his tools and intellect, but IMO EJ Manuel isn't a very skilled QB. All the parts don't fit together right.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:26 PM    (permalink
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That's what is crazy about this year's QB class. I look at 5 different top 5 rankings be they pro or blogger or draftnic and all five will be different.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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A QBs accuracy looks a lot better when their WRs do not drop passes. EJ Manuel had the lowest percentage of drops (among these prospects) at around 4% of passes. Contrary to that, Mike Glennon had almost 9% of his passes dropped.

Statistics are only good if you understand exactly what they tell you. If you start to base an opinion off of a statistic you only partially understand, then you will miss the mark in your analysis. Guaranteed.

Something else to be aware of: This list of QBs is likely curated, because most (simple) data mining models show QBs like the ones that play at TT and other spread schools that put up insane numbers as being better prospects than their obviously more NFL ready counterparts. (this could be a big reason why Geno Smith is so high...but I digress). Why is this relevant? Because it avoids prospects that are clearly priority free agents at best from appearing near the top.
Well said.

What the article also doesn't take into account is the WR's getting open. Smith, Barkley and Manuel all played with considerably better WR's.

Also, Russell Wilson was sacked 39 times as a junior with NC State. The offensive line and scheme played at NC State left some to be desired.

Stats can tell a lot but you usually can find stats to back up any arguement you want to make.
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Old 02-19-2013, 12:11 AM    (permalink
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Articles like this give statistics a bad name.
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Old 02-20-2013, 10:53 AM    (permalink
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If you correlate statistics in college to play in the NFL, however, you do see alot of valuable trends.

That's the reasoning behind the Lewin Career Forecasting system that has accurately predicted the careers of many NFL QB prospects of the past 10 years.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012

Completion %, yards, TDs, TD:INT ratio, years started, etc, all factor into a QB's future success. College stats matter alot.

You can't just discount completion percentage by saying " oh well, his WRs dropped alot of his passes". Maybe there's a reason for that? Maybe he throws a bad ball? The elite QBs almost all had excellent completion %s in college if you look back at their college careers. There's a reason for that correlation.
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Old 02-20-2013, 10:59 AM    (permalink
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I'm in the process of reverse-engineering the Lewin Career Forecast v2. I'm VERY interested in seeing the p-values.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:43 AM    (permalink
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EJ Manuel just doesn't have a command of the position and the intangibles once the ball is snapped that a QB like Russell Wilson has, or any top tier QBs IMO.

EJ Manuel seems very mechanical in the way he plays QB and seems to struggle to make plays within or slightly outside the offensive framework.

You watch how many future NFL players come from that 2012 FSU team on offense, then look back at how uninspired EJ Manuel's play was.

I love his tools and intellect, but IMO EJ Manuel isn't a very skilled QB. All the parts don't fit together right.
"Uninspired?" I just don't see what you are seeing. And I am not sure what you point is about other offensive players from the 2012 FSU team. I see a guy who does need to fine tune his skills which I think is likely to happen given his intelligence, physical skills and work ethic.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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"Uninspired?" I just don't see what you are seeing. And I am not sure what you point is about other offensive players from the 2012 FSU team. I see a guy who does need to fine tune his skills which I think is likely to happen given his intelligence, physical skills and work ethic.

What ceiling do you imagine EJ has as a pro??
Just asking since this is all conjecture and discussion anyway.

I guess what I'm saying in general terms is I've never really been in awe watching Manuel play, never thought he was the best player on the field.

Best case scenario, what type of NFL QB do you see him developing into??
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Old 02-20-2013, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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If you correlate statistics in college to play in the NFL, however, you do see alot of valuable trends.

That's the reasoning behind the Lewin Career Forecasting system that has accurately predicted the careers of many NFL QB prospects of the past 10 years.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012

Completion %, yards, TDs, TD:INT ratio, years started, etc, all factor into a QB's future success. College stats matter alot.

You can't just discount completion percentage by saying " oh well, his WRs dropped alot of his passes". Maybe there's a reason for that? Maybe he throws a bad ball? The elite QBs almost all had excellent completion %s in college if you look back at their college careers. There's a reason for that correlation.
Nobody is saying college stats shouldn't be considered. I just don't think your going to find the magic formula for QB success in them. Personally, I'll trust Senior Bowl and Combine workouts for ranking guys than I do completion percentages. Your seeing the guys on the same playing field.

Look up Russell Wilson's junior year stats at NC State and his senior year stats at Wisconsin. Here's a link - http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...-wilson-1.html

Russell's completion percentage went up over 14%. His TD to INT ratio went from 2:1 to 8:1. So tell me that an offensive system and different players (OL, WR's and a running game) don't have a drastic impact on a QB. And if anybody starts to ask whether Russell improved between his junior year at NC State and his senior year at Wisconsin - Remember the guy played minor league baseball during the spring and enrolled at Wisconsin for summer drills and fall camp only.

Russell Wilson threw the same ball at NC State that he threw at Wisconsin. He just had much more time, more open recievers and recievers better at making a catch at Wisconsin.
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Old 02-20-2013, 10:45 PM    (permalink
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You can't just discount completion percentage by saying " oh well, his WRs dropped alot of his passes". Maybe there's a reason for that? Maybe he throws a bad ball?
I want to point out that I wasn't discrediting him merely on one front. The latter point about the list being curated (ultimately being a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts) is a much bigger issue.

Also "throwing a bad ball" is the football equivalent of "being a soft tosser" in baseball.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:48 AM    (permalink
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I want to point out that I wasn't discrediting him merely on one front. The latter point about the list being curated (ultimately being a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts) is a much bigger issue.

Also "throwing a bad ball" is the football equivalent of "being a soft tosser" in baseball.
There are other factors that contribute to WR drops as well. Perhaps he isn't processing his reads as efficiently as he should which causes him to be late to throw to a spot?

All of these factors are tied to future performance for QBs and thus completion % in college is highly relevant and should not be discounted for reasons beyond the quarterback's control.

In the end, completion % is far more under the control of the QB than it is affected by the WRs. Blaming WRs for low completion % is a cop-out on the part of the QB and his supporters.
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Old 02-21-2013, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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There are other factors that contribute to WR drops as well. Perhaps he isn't processing his reads as efficiently as he should which causes him to be late to throw to a spot?

All of these factors are tied to future performance for QBs and thus completion % in college is highly relevant and should not be discounted for reasons beyond the quarterback's control.

In the end, completion % is far more under the control of the QB than it is affected by the WRs. Blaming WRs for low completion % is a cop-out on the part of the QB and his supporters.
I think there is a whole package that has to be considered. WRs rounding off routes or lacking explosion out of cuts lead to people not getting open.

The biggest factor I see in a QB is the scheme he's playing in. It's a lot easier to complete 65% of your passes in a spread scheme. It's a lot easier to put up huge numbers when your throwing screen passes to All-Americans. It's a heck of a lot harder to complete 60% of your passes when you throwing downfield results.

It's also a heck of a lot easier to throw to All Americans and All Conference players.

Explain the 14% change in Russell Wilson's junior year completion % at NC State and his senior year completion % at Wisconsin. Explain how Matt Ryan had a 59% completion % his senior year at Boston College. Matt Ryan is coming off a career NFL season where his completion % was close to 69%. Peyton Manning's senior year completion percentage was 60%.

Meanwhile players like Troy Smith (65%), Pat White (66%) and Matt Leinart (66%) flame out when they aren't playing crazy spread schemes or playing with top of the line WR, OL and RB talent.
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Old 02-24-2013, 07:42 PM    (permalink
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I think today proves that Gil is right, Smith #1 and Manuel #2. How many other ways can Manuel outperform the others?
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