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Old 02-27-2013, 09:26 AM    (permalink
J-Mike88
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Default FootballOutsiders RB's SPEED SCORE

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story...ft-gem-40-time


Knile Davis helped his draft stock during the combine with an impressive 40 time.

It's only fitting that, in a draft where most experts have only one running back being selected in the first round, Football Outsiders' Speed Score champion from the 2013 NFL combine is a third-day prospect at best -- or at least he was until Sunday. After running the 40-yard dash in an official time of 4.37 seconds and weighing in at 227 pounds, Arkansas running back Knile Davis blew away the competition with a Speed Score of 124.5.

Introduced on ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is Football Outsiders' metric for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that, because smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using the formula, (Weight * 200)/(40 time^4). As a guide, we consider a 100 Speed Score as average, with anything below 80 serving as a giant red flag, and anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.

To put this in context of our previously discussed prospect: Knile Davis' 124.5 Speed Score this year is off-the-charts good.

In fact, it's the second-highest in our database, which goes back to 1999. Successful NFL running backs since 2008 who broke the 120-point threshold include Darren McFadden (120.1), Chris Johnson (121.9).....

HERE ARE THE RESULTS OF ALL THE RB'S THIS YEAR... too bad Eddie Lacy wasn't on here...

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Old 02-27-2013, 09:28 AM    (permalink
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I really like Christine Michael.
The thing is with all these RBs is that injuries are so damn common.... why I would almost always rather take a RB in rds 5-7 or UFA than use a 1st or 2nd round pick on one.
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Old 02-27-2013, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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Chrstine Michael blew up the combine with his scores in alot of the tests.

Any team that gets him in the 3rd round or later might be getting a 1500+ yard rusher.
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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I don't know how they developed this formula, but I don't care put much creedence to it. Any system that has a guy who runs 4.37 considered below average, no matter what the weight, is dumb.
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Like I said in the combine thread. Christine Michael looked really good, but he overslept and missed two team interviews. So I don't think he helped his stock at all during the combine, if anything he hurt it. Just my opinion.

Sucks now though. Davis was a guy I've wanted for a long time. Viewed him as a sleeper in the 5-7 round range. Now, forget that.
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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I don't know how they developed this formula, but I don't care put much creedence to it. Any system that has a guy who runs 4.37 considered below average, no matter what the weight, is dumb.
Actually it makes alot of sense.

The NFL has a ton of great athletes. To really separate yourself, you can't just be FAST. You have to be FAST *and* BIG.

This measures the combination of FAST and BIG, and not just FAST.
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
I don't know how they developed this formula, but I don't care put much creedence to it. Any system that has a guy who runs 4.37 considered below average, no matter what the weight, is dumb.
They found a .45 correlation when using either yards, carries, or DPAR as the independent variable.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3337822

Last edited by WCH : 02-27-2013 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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Meh.

Too much statistical analysis for a position where RBs routinely outperform their measurables.
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Old 02-27-2013, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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Eddie Lacy is 118.88 in case anyone was wondering.

And this seems like a fairly weak correlation. I've seen this before, but it was mass^2/40^3 last time. Different people probably.
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Old 02-27-2013, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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I love speed score, and incidentally, I'm a big fan of Knile Davis. If you don't blindly follow it without actually watching the RB's play, it's a valuable tool.
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Old 02-27-2013, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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Anything that supports my boy Knile, I am with fully. Deep down I feel these numbers are worthless to be honest.
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Old 02-27-2013, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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What are the exceptions? What RBs have had success with poor 40 times? Big guys?

Knowshon's poor score in this was a huge red flag...
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Old 02-27-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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What are the exceptions? What RBs have had success with poor 40 times? Big guys?

Knowshon's poor score in this was a huge red flag...
Arian Foster ran a 4.7 at the Vols pro day.
Alfred Morris is a 4.6-4.7 guy. I don't really consider him a big back.
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Old 02-27-2013, 02:50 PM    (permalink
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If I remember enough of my college statistics, a correlation of r=.45 would be an r-squared=.20, meaning that "speedscore" accounts for 20% of the variance in the sample. (Somebody correct me if I've made any errors here. I'm rusty.)

So, it's not the be-all and end-all, but it certainly has value (assuming that the correlation still holds -- the original article was published 5 years ago). This shouldn't be surprising. The math just means "all else being equal, big and fast guys are better."

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Old 02-27-2013, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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It mentioned Davis holds the 2nd highest speed score of their records. Who was number 1? Adrian Peterson?
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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I always enjoy metrics like this. Some people get carried away with them, assuming that a single metric is the end-all be-all, but all it does is tell a side of the story. This formula just breaks down the straightline speed to size ratio of a runningback and gives a number accordingly. It's not a ranking of how good a runningback is because this formula doesn't factor in so many things that runningbacks do, it's simply a rating of how physically prototypical a runningback is based on just a couple of numbers: 40 time and weight.

That's why the 160-pound guy with the crazy 40 time is still below average, by the way. Being so small you might get carried away in the wind hurts you more in this formula than being able to run fast helps you. Runningbacks need to be able to take a hit, after all.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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It mentioned Davis holds the 2nd highest speed score of their records. Who was number 1? Adrian Peterson?
I think it's Mario Fannin, but don't quote me on that. Before him, I think Brandon Jacobs had the highest.

Of course, Bo Jackson supposedly had a speed score in the 150 range, and Herschel Walker was supposed in the high 130s. Who the hell knows about those alleged 40 times from the 80's.

Here's a terribly designed website with speedscores for various players:

http://40-yard-dash-times.com/speed-...ing-backs.html

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Old 02-27-2013, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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Jeez a general rule is that 4.5+ guys usually don't work out.
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Old 02-27-2013, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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All else being equal (effectiveness of O-line) a bigger and faster RB is always better than a smaller faster RB and a bigger slower RB. That's all speed score is useful for.

Different types of run plays, and certain other factors become important, such as ability to stop/start and accelerating out of a cut.

I think they should start timing some of these RB-specific drills, such as the "zig zag" cone one.
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Old 02-27-2013, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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Anybody have wizard powers to get this list from last year's class?
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Old 02-27-2013, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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I like the speed score metric, but it's pretty clear that it's not the be-all and end-all since there's lots of other things that you want to take into account that have nothing to do with the speed score (e.g. vision, balance, patience, blitz pickup, hands, character) and the speed score isn't weaker because it doesn't reflect those things, since it doesn't even try to.

The simple question is "do you want a RB who hits the guy who's trying to tackle him as hard as possible?" and the answer is "yes, yes you do." There is no context in which it's worse for a running back to be capable of delivering less of a blow to would-be-tacklers. There's two ways to hit hard: be big, or be fast. Linear Momentum is m*v and Kinetic Energy is .5m(v)^2.
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Old 02-27-2013, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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Anybody have wizard powers to get this list from last year's class?
My Google-Fu abilities are solid:

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2012...b-speed-scores

Unfortunately, that list isn't order from highest to lowest.

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Old 03-01-2013, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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I think there are some things fundamentally wrong with this formula/concept.

First, I think a better measure is mass/time, not mass/time^4

The reason is because momentum is mass*velocity, and the velocity of a player is proportional to 1/time. Momentum is an important measure for breaking tackles.

Second, most broken tackles occur close to the LOS so the 40-time is not a a good measure of time. The 20 yd shuttle or 10 yd split may be better.

Speed is still important for busting out long runs, and quickness is also an important measure for elusiveness. So the 40-time, shuttle/cone drills, and mass/time are all independent measures of a different abilities of a player.

I think the best thing to do would be to take a weighted average of each ability. Mass/time would be an important measure of momentum/break tackles, 40-time indicates pure speed, shuttle/ten yd split measures elusiveness. Similar to what is done for madden ratings
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Old 03-01-2013, 12:31 PM    (permalink
tjsunstein
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Supports Le'Veon Bell who I like a lot, but his carries in college are troublesome to most. ~660 to Lacy's ~350.
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Old 03-01-2013, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgerbacker View Post
It mentioned Davis holds the 2nd highest speed score of their records. Who was number 1? Adrian Peterson?
Mario Fannin, the best darned fourth string running back in the league.

I love how groundbreaking it all is. Good running backs tend to be fast for their size? GET OUTTA HERE!
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