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Old 03-19-2013, 09:05 AM    (permalink
KaneMarko
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I think we all know where the Chiefs are going with that #1 overall pick. I'm not really even sure it's debatable anymore. Especially if what John Clayton is reporting about the Chiefs trading Albert to the Phins for a second round pick. As much as it bothers me, the pick is going to be Joeckel with maybe an outside chance of Eric Fisher.

So let's recap: The Chiefs potentially give up 2 second round picks for a QB that has, statistically, never been more than average. Cut a solid RT that was 1 year in to a 4 year deal and was only 30 years old. And are rumored to be considering sending their starting LT to the Phins for a 2nd round pick.

I'm sorry, I may be in the minority but I just don't see much improvement other than maybe in coaching and in the front office (and there's not enough evidence to prove either way at this point). Let's not forget, they elected not to re-sign Brandon Carr a couple years ago and failed to replace him with Stanford Routt, who was cut mid-season last year. Sean Smith may or may not fill that void. We'll see. Glenn Dorsey is now a 49er and was replaced with Mike Devito. And, as mentioned, they stand on the cusp, if rumors are true, of creating two SELF-INFLICTED, wholes at left and right tackle. All so we can draft Luke Joeckel.

You all will have to forgive me for not getting uber excited about all this. Time may prove me wrong but I just don't see a ton of improvement here. Sure, the Chiefs will be "better" next season. It's hard to do worse than what they did last season. But if the end-goal is to win a SB, I just don't see a lot of SB moves here. Including the drafting of Luke Joeckel. I see moves that will get them in the 6-10 to 10-6 spin cycle with maybe a 1st round exit in the playoffs at best. Again, time may prove me wrong. And I'll be happy if I am. But that's what I see right now. And if I'm right then John Dorsey and Andy Reid should be fired in 4 years.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
I remember when Aaron Curry was a sure thing and Matt Stafford had questions. We all know that obviously the best way to go at the top is pick the safest player with no questions about him at all. That always works 100% of the time. You're only allowed to draft a QB when he has absolutely no question marks at all about him, if he has anything that might make him a bust you should just take the safe player.
Obviously! That's why the top teams that are contending for Super Bowls always have a top 5 stud LT protecting their mediocre QB.

Wait, that ISN'T how it works? Well the Chiefs are in trouble..

LT is such an overrated position, especially when you have no one back there worth protecting.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:09 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
I remember when Aaron Curry was a sure thing and Matt Stafford had questions. We all know that obviously the best way to go at the top is pick the safest player with no questions about him at all. That always works 100% of the time. You're only allowed to draft a QB when he has absolutely no question marks at all about him, if he has anything that might make him a bust you should just take the safe player.
Not really arguing against me, considering Aaron Curry wasn't an OT. Also, Stafford still has questions and the Lions went 4-12 and only had 1 winning season with Stafford, he's not exactly a success yet.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:09 AM    (permalink
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Obviously! That's why the top teams that are contending for Super Bowls always have a top 5 stud LT protecting their mediocre QB.

Wait, that ISN'T how it works? Well the Chiefs are in trouble..

LT is such an overrated position, especially when you have no one back there worth protecting.
Since when are the Lions contending for Super Bowls? His example is horrendous.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:11 AM    (permalink
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You all will have to forgive me for not getting uber excited about all this. Time may prove me wrong but I just don't see a ton of improvement here. Sure, the Chiefs will be "better" next season. It's hard to do worse than what they did last season. But if the end-goal is to win a SB, I just don't see a lot of SB moves here. Including the drafting of Luke Joeckel. I see moves that will get them in the 6-10 to 10-6 spin cycle with maybe a 1st round exit in the playoffs at best. Again, time may prove me wrong. And I'll be happy if I am. But that's what I see right now. And if I'm right then John Dorsey and Andy Reid should be fired in 4 years.
There is no reason to get excited about any of it. This is essentially the same team that we had last year. Maybe better QB play, maybe better coaching, but we'll be worse along the OL than we were last year, and we really didn't add any new weapons in the passing game for our new "franchise" QB to succeed with.

They've built a mediocre, at best, team. And they got rid of two starters on the OL and used the first overall pick to do it.

In three or four years Reid and Dorsey will be fired, our big talent starters (Tamba, DJ, Flow, Bowe, etc) will be retired or retiring, and we'll still be looking for a QB who can take us anywhere.

Nothing will change.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:12 AM    (permalink
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Since when are the Lions contending for Super Bowls? His example is horrendous.
Since when are the Lions a top team?
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:17 AM    (permalink
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What if Kansas City is willing to trade Albert because they want to see what they have in the younger, cheaper Stephenson?

Then they could always take a player like Jordan Mills in the 3rd or 4th round to play right tackle.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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Top 10 picks since 2006

LT-
D'brickashaw Ferguson - good
Joe Thomas - good
Levi Brown - bust
Jake Long - good
Jason Smith - bust
Eugene Monroe - good
Andre Smith - good, at RT
Trent Williams - good
Russell Okung - good
Tyron Smith - good
Matt Kalil - good, small sample size

QB-
Vince Young - bust
Matt Leinart - bust
JaMarcus Russell - bust
Matt Ryan - good
Matt Stafford - good, in 2011 at least
Mark Sanchez - bust
Sam Bradford - jury still out
Cam Newton - good, for fantasy
Jake Locker - more bust than good so far, jury still out
Andrew Luck - good, small sample size
Robert Griffin III - good, small sample size
Ryan Tannehill - too early to tell
Blaine Gabbert - much more bust than good so far, jury still out

I really can't believe I need to defend my point like this. I think you guys have the rare cases of OTs busting in your head so you think it happens all the time, but in the past decade it's been Jason Smith, Levi Brown, and Robert Gallery and that's about it, most of them have been successful and if not a success at LT, at RT. Taking a QB is much more risky, especially one like Geno Smith.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:19 AM    (permalink
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Since when are the Lions a top team?
Thanks for further solidifying my point?
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:21 AM    (permalink
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What if Kansas City is willing to trade Albert because they want to see what they have in the younger, cheaper Stephenson?

Then they could always take a player like Jordan Mills in the 3rd or 4th round to play right tackle.
Yeah but then this whole thing comes back full circle with who is actually worthy of a top 5 pick. And I don't want to start that debate over again.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:21 AM    (permalink
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I also have not seen anyone defend the Chiefs for the Alex Smith trade, or cutting Eric Winston. At least I have not. I am simply defending the fact that the Chiefs should take Joeckel and not Geno Smith. That is it. I thought they gave up way too much for Smith, and should not have cut Winston, for the record.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:24 AM    (permalink
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I also have not seen anyone defend the Chiefs for the Alex Smith trade, or cutting Eric Winston. At least I have not. I am simply defending the fact that the Chiefs should take Joeckel and not Geno Smith. That is it. I thought they gave up way too much for Smith, and should not have cut Winston, for the record.
They have no choice now, they have to take Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher. Especially if the Albert trade rumors are true.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:28 AM    (permalink
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Not really arguing against me, considering Aaron Curry wasn't an OT. Also, Stafford still has questions and the Lions went 4-12 and only had 1 winning season with Stafford, he's not exactly a success yet.
OT or not, your arguing to go safe against the most important position in football because that guy has questions. If Curry was in this class you would be arguing to take him by your logic. Taking the safe player does nothing for you.


And since you obviously missed the point, please enlighten me on who was the correct pick for Detroit then if Stafford wasn't? Nobody said taking a QB instantly means playoffs. That's like saying Calvin Johnson wouldn't be worth the #1 overall pick this year because the Lions still suck. Come on...
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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OT or not, your arguing to go safe against the most important position in football because that guy has questions. If Curry was in this class you would be arguing to take him by your logic. Taking the safe player does nothing for you.


And since you obviously missed the point, please enlighten me on who was the correct pick for Detroit then if Stafford wasn't? Nobody said taking a QB instantly means playoffs. That's like saying Calvin Johnson wouldn't be worth the #1 overall pick this year because the Lions still suck. Come on...
Who was the consensus BPA for the 2009 draft? Pretty sure most people had Stafford #1 so no I'd be arguing to take Stafford because he was the BPA. I've always been BPA 1st and foremost, unless BPA is a QB and you have 20mil a year spent on a QB and can't take that position.

My main argument for taking Joeckel is that he is the consensus #1 prospect. Not that he has a lower chance to bust. The fact that he is more of a sure thing than Geno was just in response to what someone else said.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:35 AM    (permalink
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Don't get me wrong, I agree what the Chiefs are potentially doing is dumb but generally QB's bust 50% of the time while OT's bust around 30% of the time.
Ultimately everything comes down to winning.

Almost 50% of 1st round QBs have contributed to a winning team.

For LTs, that number is 21%.

Just as examples Jake Long, Branden Albert, Joe Thomas were all first round left tackles. look at the win-loss record of their teams during their tenure. On the flipside, you have teams with good qbs like Brady, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers that are winning without first round LTs.

winning is all that matters.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:36 AM    (permalink
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I just flat-out don't think that a LT is worth the #1 overall pick anymore. I believe that the marginal utility of the position has fallen off considerably in the past 10 years, as teams have become more clever in their blitz packages and started moving their best pass rushers around.

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Old 03-19-2013, 09:38 AM    (permalink
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Ultimately everything comes down to winning.

Almost 50% of 1st round QBs have contributed to a winning team.

For LTs, that number is 21%.

Just as examples Jake Long, Branden Albert, Joe Thomas were all first round left tackles. look at the win-loss record of their teams during their tenure. On the flipside, you have teams with good qbs like Brady, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers that are winning without first round LTs.

winning is all that matters.
What if there are no Mannings, Bradys, or Rodgers in the draft class though? You do realize that there are more drafts without super bowl winning QBs than there are with right?

Not for nothing but the Vikings went from 5-11 to 10-6 and in the playoffs last year, who was their 1st round pick?
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:40 AM    (permalink
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What if there are no Mannings, Bradys, or Rodgers in the draft class though? You do realize that there are more drafts without super bowl winning QBs than there are with right?

Not for nothing but the Vikings went from 5-11 to 10-6 and in the playoffs last year, who was their 1st round pick?
Christian Ponder, in 2011.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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Christian Ponder, in 2011.
Wrong. Matt Kalil in 2012. They got worse when they picked Ponder genius.

They did well because of a 2000 yard rusher, which has nothing to do with Ponder and everything to do with AP and what part of the team that blocks? I know what its called... oh that's right offensive line.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:42 AM    (permalink
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Adrian Peterson ?
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:43 AM    (permalink
vidae
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Adrian Peterson ?
No, it's all about the LT!
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:44 AM    (permalink
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Adrian Peterson ?
Was on the team and only missed 1 game because of injury when they went 5-11
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:44 AM    (permalink
Robcards
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No, it's all about the LT!
I'm just refuting the point that drafting a LT with the top 5 pick won't help your team win. It clearly did for the Vikings
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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Matt Kalil was a great pass protector. Not a good run blocker.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:49 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
pretty sure it was a guy no one thought should've been a first round qb. weird, right?

oh, you meant their LAST first round pick.
They degressed to 4-12 when they picked Ponder. They improved to 10-6 from 4-12 when they picked Kalil.
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