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Old 03-21-2013, 01:58 AM    (permalink
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I don't think you'll see player get more than 20 mill per season. Now the NFL contracts have so much junk running in them. But if they play out the whole contract 20 seems like the top a team will go. Until the cap gets to 135-140ish then 23-25 mill will be the new 20 mill.
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Old 03-21-2013, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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One of two things will happen in the NFL shortly. Either:

- They will need to raise the cap limit to accommodate these monster QB deals and simultaneously have enough spending money to field a competitive team around these QBs

or

- Teams that find a way to establish a solid passing / running offense without paying their QB monster bucks (i.e. find a capable younger starter that's locked into a rookie contract a la Russell Wilson & Colin Caepernick OR find a borderline top-10 QB that doesn't demand a top contract and build elite team around him) will have a huge advantage over the teams that devote 25+% of their salary cap to their QB.
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Old 03-21-2013, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
One of two things will happen in the NFL shortly. Either:

- They will need to raise the cap limit to accommodate these monster QB deals and simultaneously have enough spending money to field a competitive team around these QBs

or

- Teams that find a way to establish a solid passing / running offense without paying their QB monster bucks (i.e. find a capable younger starter that's locked into a rookie contract a la Russell Wilson & Colin Caepernick OR find a borderline top-10 QB that doesn't demand a top contract and build elite team around him) will have a huge advantage over the teams that devote 25+% of their salary cap to their QB.

You end up with who you have though. Nobody is going to draft a QB saying "I hope this guy is good, but not too good so we don't have to pay him". I don't care if the cap doesn't move up 1 penny for the next 5 years. All 32 teams would love to have a QB as good as Rodgers and pay him 25 million a year happily. Of course you don't have as much money to work with, but I don't think anyone would trade Rodgers in for cap space.


Sure it's nice to have a guy like Russell Wilson on that contract, but your window to win on that contract is short lived and it's not often a young QB in their first few years wins a SB. So while a team like Seattle has a nice advantage in cap space, it's only for a few years and after that they have to plan for it like any other team with a top tier QB.
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Old 03-21-2013, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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You end up with who you have though. Nobody is going to draft a QB saying "I hope this guy is good, but not too good so we don't have to pay him". I don't care if the cap doesn't move up 1 penny for the next 5 years. All 32 teams would love to have a QB as good as Rodgers and pay him 25 million a year happily. Of course you don't have as much money to work with, but I don't think anyone would trade Rodgers in for cap space.


Sure it's nice to have a guy like Russell Wilson on that contract, but your window to win on that contract is short lived and it's not often a young QB in their first few years wins a SB. So while a team like Seattle has a nice advantage in cap space, it's only for a few years and after that they have to plan for it like any other team with a top tier QB.

Or they can run an offense in which the QB is an athletic guy that can make simple reads downfield in a system that is predicated upon the QB as a runner, and this system would then make the QB as interchangeable a piece as the RB or the WR.

I have a theory that the read option does just that, and that Wilson and Kaepernick are no more special than any of the other athletic strong-armed guys that came out of college in the past, and that this type of QB that can run a legit top-10 offense in the NFL (as long as it is predicated upon the read option) is basically a dime a dozen.

In this situation, once the current successful read option QB begins to demand big bucks, you offer him a smaller figure and if he doesn't accept, you simply move on to the next athletic guy that can make simple throws downfield in the read option.
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Old 03-21-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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That's quite a risk. You better hope your scouts can find someone like the # 1 QB if you let him go like that. Also, you have to hope the OC and system stays the same. If a new OC comes in and doesn't like this new fad, then you're back to square 1, where the OC feels the team lacks a franchise QB.

I agree with my dallas fan there, that you draft the best QB and pay him and you then go from there. You fill your needs via the draft and use FA as a team to fill 1 or 2 spots.
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Old 03-21-2013, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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I don't believe that for a second. We're seeing an unprecendented trend in the NFL of good passers who can also run (Arod, Luck, Cam, RG3, Wilson, Kaep) however if it were easy to replace the guys that run the option read guys like Joe Webb, Tavares Jackson, etc, would be starting quality to certain teams. The thing that makes the read option so deadly right now is that these qb's can actually beat you with their arms and just so happen to have RB like speed so oh yeah we can break a 70 yarder too so pick your poison.
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Or they can run an offense in which the QB is an athletic guy that can make simple reads downfield in a system that is predicated upon the QB as a runner, and this system would then make the QB as interchangeable a piece as the RB or the WR.

I have a theory that the read option does just that, and that Wilson and Kaepernick are no more special than any of the other athletic strong-armed guys that came out of college in the past, and that this type of QB that can run a legit top-10 offense in the NFL (as long as it is predicated upon the read option) is basically a dime a dozen.

In this situation, once the current successful read option QB begins to demand big bucks, you offer him a smaller figure and if he doesn't accept, you simply move on to the next athletic guy that can make simple throws downfield in the read option.

Last edited by Guru : 03-21-2013 at 05:57 PM.
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Old 03-21-2013, 07:57 PM    (permalink
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Or they can run an offense in which the QB is an athletic guy that can make simple reads downfield in a system that is predicated upon the QB as a runner, and this system would then make the QB as interchangeable a piece as the RB or the WR.

I have a theory that the read option does just that, and that Wilson and Kaepernick are no more special than any of the other athletic strong-armed guys that came out of college in the past, and that this type of QB that can run a legit top-10 offense in the NFL (as long as it is predicated upon the read option) is basically a dime a dozen.

In this situation, once the current successful read option QB begins to demand big bucks, you offer him a smaller figure and if he doesn't accept, you simply move on to the next athletic guy that can make simple throws downfield in the read option.
The problem with that is what happens when the NFL figures out this read option offense? But I do agree with the concept. We are getting to a point where a third of the league is going to have QBs with 20 mil per contracts. This isn't sustainable for NFL franchises. In the past 13 years a QB has never been top 5 in cap number and won the Super Bowl (I don't know if eli manning is an exception) this is a telling stat. Right now we have four soon to be five of these contracts. Eventually teams are going to stand up against these or see a higher salary cap that part I 100% agree with AcheTen about. When 100 mil contracts become the norm it is almost foolish not to constantly be looking for that next QB who can be good enough to win on a rookie contract.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:53 PM    (permalink
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If anyone in the NFL deserves a massive raise it's Rodgers. But I'm interested to see how these teams with super highly-paid QBs are able to build teams around their franchise QBs.
Great point, it certainly became much harder for teams with highly paid QB's top remain competitive especially with the cap increases being basically flat for the next few years.

It looks like the window of opportunity to win championships has become much shorter.
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Old 03-21-2013, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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The problem with that is what happens when the NFL figures out this read option offense? But I do agree with the concept. We are getting to a point where a third of the league is going to have QBs with 20 mil per contracts. This isn't sustainable for NFL franchises. In the past 13 years a QB has never been top 5 in cap number and won the Super Bowl (I don't know if eli manning is an exception) this is a telling stat. Right now we have four soon to be five of these contracts. Eventually teams are going to stand up against these or see a higher salary cap that part I 100% agree with AcheTen about. When 100 mil contracts become the norm it is almost foolish not to constantly be looking for that next QB who can be good enough to win on a rookie contract.
Yeah but in the last how many years has anyone won w/o a franchise QB? Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer are the only two that come to mind, maybe Jim McMahon and Mark Rypien. Now a days it's top priority to get a franchise QB and everything else is second. Once you have a franchise QB you're basically hoping to get to the playoffs and get red hot. Since the level of play at the QB level has almost plateued it becomes more of a 'best team' scenario, and that's why I think SB's are a bit overrated when deciding elite status amongs QB's now more than ever. The gap has closed so much that luck and the rest of team is just as much of a factor in a post season run as QB play.
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Old 03-21-2013, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Yeah but in the last how many years has anyone won w/o a franchise QB?
imo, the better question is: What is the rate of franchise highly paid franchise QBs winning superbowls, vs non-highly paid franchise QBs?
For example, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco all won their superbowls while being paid comparably moderate amounts. As I recall Eli won a SB before he got paid as well as after. The best ticket to the SB is getting very good QB play on the cheap. Something that's not easy to do.
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Old 03-21-2013, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Yeah but in the last how many years has anyone won w/o a franchise QB? Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer are the only two that come to mind, maybe Jim McMahon and Mark Rypien. Now a days it's top priority to get a franchise QB and everything else is second. Once you have a franchise QB you're basically hoping to get to the playoffs and get red hot. Since the level of play at the QB level has almost plateued it becomes more of a 'best team' scenario, and that's why I think SB's are a bit overrated when deciding elite status amongs QB's now more than ever. The gap has closed so much that luck and the rest of team is just as much of a factor in a post season run as QB play.
In the last 13 years 2 non franchise QBs have won the super bowl (with the jury out on Flacco.) So ultimately the formula is simple (executing it is hard but teams should see what is happening) find a franchise QB without paying him too much. New England has shown it to work there is a reason that Tom Brady constantly restructures and gives up money its to keep a team around him capable of winning super bowls.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-21-2013, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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imo, the better question is: What is the rate of franchise highly paid franchise QBs winning superbowls, vs non-highly paid franchise QBs?
For example, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco all won their superbowls while being paid comparably moderate amounts. As I recall Eli won a SB before he got paid as well as after. The best ticket to the SB is getting very good QB play on the cheap. Something that's not easy to do.
So the big question is when your QB is holding the team hostage would it be better to let the QB walk and keep the rest of the team intact and take your chances in the draft or would you be better off paying the QB and cutting key pieces to the team. I would be really interested in seeing Manning's cap number for his most recent super bowl and then his cap number for this season. I wonder if that is something Monomach would know?

EDIT: I'm not arguing against giving Rodgers his money. Because there are three or four QBs in the league that could potentially win a Super Bowl with less than ideal talent.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.

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Old 03-22-2013, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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The 2004 contract was an average of $14m a year. But it was back-loaded since the salary cap was increasing ~$5m a year. His cap number was probably north of $17m the last 2-3 years of the contract. The Colts v Bears SB was in year 2 & Colts v Saints SB was in the 6th year of the 7 year contract.

Thinking of a QB holding a team hostage, hypothetically what if Kaepernick decides he wants to paid like a franchise QB whenever his rookie deal is up, or at least more than the 49ers think he's worth. The core of that team is strong enough to gets them to the Championship game with above average QB play. If that returner can catch the ball, & they beat the Giants two years ago, then Alex Smith is playing in the SB.

I suppose the Tom Brady situation is the ideal position to be in. But even in that situation, suppose the Ravens stumble onto Tom Brady jr. in the tail end of this draft, and realize what they have on their hands. Flacco just got $52m guaranteed. All you can really do is showcase him in the pre-season, and entertain trade offers. Assuming you can't get fair worth, you would almost have to string him along like Steve Young until releasing/trading Flacco became acceptable for the cap.
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Old 03-22-2013, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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In the last 13 years 2 non franchise QBs have won the super bowl (with the jury out on Flacco.) So ultimately the formula is simple (executing it is hard but teams should see what is happening) find a franchise QB without paying him too much. New England has shown it to work there is a reason that Tom Brady constantly restructures and gives up money its to keep a team around him capable of winning super bowls.
I always hear people say this about him, always. When the facts remain that his first contract made him one of the highest paid players in the NFL and the 2nd one made him [i]the/i] highest paid player in the NFL. Why do people always assume he was a bargain basement contract QB?
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Old 03-22-2013, 09:59 AM    (permalink
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I always hear people say this about him, always. When the facts remain that his first contract made him one of the highest paid players in the NFL and the 2nd one made him [i]the/i] highest paid player in the NFL. Why do people always assume he was a bargain basement contract QB?
ESPN told them so. Remember the initial article calling his restructuring the ultimate team sacrifice. You know despite it fully guaranteeing his contract while making him even with Drew Bree's mega-contract.

Media loves to fondle themselves to Brady and thus by trickle down he's the ultimate team player for being among the top paid QBs.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:46 PM    (permalink
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I always hear people say this about him, always. When the facts remain that his first contract made him one of the highest paid players in the NFL and the 2nd one made him [i]the/i] highest paid player in the NFL. Why do people always assume he was a bargain basement contract QB?
Because broth just went with what was being reported and did not do research. BUT, my main concept still holds true every time Brady has made the super bowl he has been outside the top 10 in salary cap.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ESPN Boston
As part of the restructure, Brady had his 2012 base salary reduced from $5.75 million to $950,000. The team then took the remaining $4.8 million, combined it with a $6 million roster bonus due to him, and gave him a $10.8 million signing bonus.

Brady doesn't have his salary reduced, he just receives the money in a different form.
That's straight from ESPN. His cap hit lowers by 7.2 mill, opening up space but he still gets his money. Great move by management imo.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by falloutboy14 View Post
imo, the better question is: What is the rate of franchise highly paid franchise QBs winning superbowls, vs non-highly paid franchise QBs?
For example, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco all won their superbowls while being paid comparably moderate amounts. As I recall Eli won a SB before he got paid as well as after. The best ticket to the SB is getting very good QB play on the cheap. Something that's not easy to do.
That's a very good point however the best team doesn't always win a SB.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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Ryan Leaf isn't making $25 million per year because he's not worth that. If he was worth that, then don't you think that somebody would pay him that?

Most of you on here suffer from collective thinking. You're not willing to see things in a different way. When you do, you just call the person an idiot.
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Old 03-23-2013, 06:44 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ph90702 View Post
Ryan Leaf isn't making $25 million per year because he's not worth that. If he was worth that, then don't you think that somebody would pay him that?

Most of you on here suffer from collective thinking. You're not willing to see things in a different way. When you do, you just call the person an idiot.
Its not collective thinking. Jamarcus Russell was paid 38 Million Dollars during his tenure as Raiders QB at no point in his NFL career was he ever worth that money. They paid that money and did not get a return on the investment. Even if you include Jersey sales or whatever other factor you want to include you don't get a net gain of a single cent outside of what would have already been delivered regardless of if Jamarcus ever existed. There are dozens of examples of players never repaying the investment usually at least one on a yearly basis. Thus these players are not worth what they paid for him.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-24-2013, 09:37 AM    (permalink
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Its not collective thinking. Jamarcus Russell was paid 38 Million Dollars during his tenure as Raiders QB at no point in his NFL career was he ever worth that money. They paid that money and did not get a return on the investment. Even if you include Jersey sales or whatever other factor you want to include you don't get a net gain of a single cent outside of what would have already been delivered regardless of if Jamarcus ever existed. There are dozens of examples of players never repaying the investment usually at least one on a yearly basis. Thus these players are not worth what they paid for him.
He wouldn't have been drafted #1 overall if he wasn't worth $38 million. You're wrong once again.
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Old 03-24-2013, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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He wouldn't have been drafted #1 overall if he wasn't worth $38 million. You're wrong once again.
Are you seriously arguing this?

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Old 03-24-2013, 10:00 AM    (permalink
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He wouldn't have been drafted #1 overall if he wasn't worth $38 million. You're wrong once again.
If you are going to use "he's worth it" as a synonyms term for "that's what he got paid." then you are self referencing yourself into a totality. "Well people of SWDC that's what he got paid because that's what he got paid." brilliant.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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This read option is going to be figured out. Of the 8 teams that remained in the divisional round, only 2 teams were Read Option Offenses. And of those 2 teams, San Fransisco and Seattle, both Wilson and Kap displayed they can sit back and pick you apart and make reads. When the NFL does figure it out, they will be fine.

With Rodgers: The Packers will consistently be a playoff/super bowl contender. Ted Thompson does an excellent drafting and building throughout the draft. Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL. He elevates the play of his WRs and just picks apart defenses.
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Old 03-24-2013, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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This read option is going to be figured out. Of the 8 teams that remained in the divisional round, only 2 teams were Read Option Offenses. And of those 2 teams, San Fransisco and Seattle, both Wilson and Kap displayed they can sit back and pick you apart and make reads. When the NFL does figure it out, they will be fine.

With Rodgers: The Packers will consistently be a playoff/super bowl contender. Ted Thompson does an excellent drafting and building throughout the draft. Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL. He elevates the play of his WRs and just picks apart defenses.
The read option isn't going to be "figured out" any more than the West Coast Offense was. It's not a gimmick or a trick offense. It's a way to exploit a numbers mismatch based on personnel groupings. Those things can be adjusted to with different schemes, but defenses will always sacrifice one thing to help another in that case.
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