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Old 03-22-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Originally Posted by keylime_5 View Post
my point was the college production thing vs. potential doesn't really matter. Brandon Graham has like 8 career sacks. Pierre-Paul had a 16 sack season just a year ago. I think his conditioning was poor last year and he dropped off a bit. Aldon Smith's career thus far speaks for itself. He didn't have many sacks in college and is THE GUY that everyone is comparing Dion Jordan to. Ansah is just now learning the fundamentals of an NFL pass rusher, his physical talent is ridiculous, he just needs refinement/experience. Look at what he did in the senior bowl and what the coaches say about him after that game.
a.) Brandon Graham was injured in his rookie year and couldn't play in 2011
b.) Brandon Graham has a higher pass rushing productivity than Jason Pierre Paul when he does play
c.) It's only been three years, one of which Graham couldn't play, and the last of which he was a part-time player due to the coaching staff
d.) in the next 3+ years Graham could put up bigger/more numbers than Jason Pierre Paul based on his ability to produce so far in the sacks+hits+hurries department

What I'm saying is that it's too early to say that Jason Pierre Paul is better than Brandon Graham. I think Graham will end up being the better player when we look back 5+ years from now on their careers.

Also, Aldon Smith, again, too early. Maybe he was a product of Justin Smith's holding and Aldon Smith never breaks the 6 sack barrier ever again?
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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a.) Brandon Graham was injured in his rookie year and couldn't play in 2011
b.) Brandon Graham has a higher pass rushing productivity than Jason Pierre Paul when he does play
c.) It's only been three years, one of which Graham couldn't play, and the last of which he was a part-time player due to the coaching staff
d.) in the next 3+ years Graham could put up bigger/more numbers than Jason Pierre Paul based on his ability to produce so far in the sacks+hits+hurries department

What I'm saying is that it's too early to say that Jason Pierre Paul is better than Brandon Graham. I think Graham will end up being the better player when we look back 5+ years from now on their careers.

Also, Aldon Smith, again, too early. Maybe he was a product of Justin Smith's holding and Aldon Smith never breaks the 6 sack barrier ever again?
I believe this could be cut and pasted into a textbook as a perfect example of homerism.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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It's funny how people treat running a slow 40 as proof that Jarvis Jones will not be a good player.
I don't take any of it as proof that he won't be good. I just see a number of bad red flags, most of them are unfortunate for him. He was a stellar player in college and might be in the pros.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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I believe this could be cut and pasted into a textbook as a perfect example of homerism.
It's not even homerism, it's egotism. He doesn't want his philosophy that says "production is the only consideration" to fail. Anyone who considers Brandon Graham to be a better player than Jason Pierre-Paul deserves at the very least to have their understanding of the game of football questioned.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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a.) Brandon Graham was injured in his rookie year and couldn't play in 2011
b.) Brandon Graham has a higher pass rushing productivity than Jason Pierre Paul when he does play
c.) It's only been three years, one of which Graham couldn't play, and the last of which he was a part-time player due to the coaching staff
d.) in the next 3+ years Graham could put up bigger/more numbers than Jason Pierre Paul based on his ability to produce so far in the sacks+hits+hurries department

What I'm saying is that it's too early to say that Jason Pierre Paul is better than Brandon Graham. I think Graham will end up being the better player when we look back 5+ years from now on their careers.

Also, Aldon Smith, again, too early. Maybe he was a product of Justin Smith's holding and Aldon Smith never breaks the 6 sack barrier ever again?
I'm not going on "what ifs" I'm going on what happened. Aldon Smith had 33.5 sacks in his first two years in the league and is an athletic freak who didn't do much in college statistically...yet was taken 7th overall. I don't see anyone else putting up those kind of numbers even if they do have another all-pro on their line.

Besides all that, the premise of this argument is that Jarvis Jones should be taken above Ansah and Jordan who are much better athletes with better tools and pro upside despite the fact that Jones is small and put up terrible workout numbers even though he did produce in college.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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I believe this could be cut and pasted into a textbook as a perfect example of homerism.
I'm not even an Eagles fan...

Just remember: after the first three years of his career, Shawne Merriman was far and away the best defensive player from the 2005 draft and fans of the Cowboys were questioning why the team selected DeMarcus Ware, who had a slow start to his career, over Merriman.

Years later, Ware is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame and Merriman is long forgotten.

You literally cannot judge a draft class until at least 5+ years later, and sometimes even longer than that. Especially when injuries are involved, as with Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan being injured in their second years vs. Jason Pierre Paul staying healthy so far.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by keylime_5 View Post
I'm not going on "what ifs" I'm going on what happened. Aldon Smith had 33.5 sacks in his first two years in the league and is an athletic freak who didn't do much in college statistically...yet was taken 7th overall. I don't see anyone else putting up those kind of numbers even if they do have another all-pro on their line.
What would you say if Aldon Smith or Jason Pierre Paul end up never breaking the 6 sack barrier ever again, while someone like Brandon Graham goes on to become Defensive Player of the Year within the next 4 years?

I wouldn't be shocked if their careers turn out this way at all. Graham has actually been a better pass rusher in his time on the field than Pierre Paul if you consider the "Pass Rushing Productivity" stat which measures more than just raw sacks and instead considers Sacks+Hits+Hurries PER RUSH.

Your opinion of this example of production vs potential would be alot different.

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Besides all that, the premise of this argument is that Jarvis Jones should be taken above Ansah and Jordan who are much better athletes with better tools and pro upside despite the fact that Jones is small and put up terrible workout numbers even though he did produce in college.
Production in college means more than "upside". The guys who succeed with "upside" are very rare, and the only example you can really point to is Jason Pierre Paul, who again, has not proven to be an elite player just yet, because he's basically had one good year and could end up being a one-year-wonder.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
It's not even homerism, it's egotism. He doesn't want his philosophy that says "production is the only consideration" to fail. Anyone who considers Brandon Graham to be a better player than Jason Pierre-Paul deserves at the very least to have their understanding of the game of football questioned.
Maybe you should tell Profootballfocus.com to shut their website down then, because they graded Graham as a BETTER PLAYER than Pierre Paul this past year.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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Maybe you should tell Profootballfocus.com to shut their website down then, because they graded Graham as a BETTER PLAYER than Pierre Paul this past year.
Really? I thought that they grade each player according to their opinion of how they performed on a play by play basis each SEASON. I wonder how they graded JPP a year ago? Also, I didn't know they were the ultimate authority on ranking players which all NFL GM trust as their personnel Bible. Did read the news about JPPs HC publically saying that he played too heavy this past year, or did you miss that?
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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If they never break the 6 sacks barrier again, it will likely be b/c of injuries. What ifs don't work in this argument.

-statement: "Jones > Ansah/Jordan because he got sacks in college and those two didn't"

-argument: "Pierre-Paul and Smith are two guys who were recently drafted very high but they didn't do anything in college either, but are freaks."

-counter argument: "what if......"

see, that doesn't work. Brandon Graham could very well be a great player still, but he hasn't done much yet, and there are plenty of other guys who produced in college that proved to be less than stellar athletes who busted in the pros.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by keylime_5 View Post
If they never break the 6 sacks barrier again, it will likely be b/c of injuries. What ifs don't work in this argument.

-statement: "Jones > Ansah/Jordan because he got sacks in college and those two didn't"

-argument: "Pierre-Paul and Smith are two guys who were recently drafted very high but they didn't do anything in college either, but are freaks."

-counter argument: "what if......"

see, that doesn't work. Brandon Graham could very well be a great player still, but he hasn't done much yet, and there are plenty of other guys who produced in college that proved to be less than stellar athletes who busted in the pros.
Outside of his injury-shortened year in 2011, Graham has actually been a more productive pass rusher than Pierre Paul on a per rush basis (counting hits+hurries+sacks).

Basically speaking, outside of 2011, Graham has been a better player than Pierre Paul. 2011 could literally be the outlier for both players and Graham, after their careers are over, will have far more production than Pierre Paul.

Pierre Paul might never break the 6 sack barrier again because he just isn't a good pass rusher and that 2011 season was just a fluke.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Outside of his injury-shortened year in 2011, Graham has actually been a more productive pass rusher than Pierre Paul on a per rush basis (counting hits+hurries+sacks).

Basically speaking, outside of 2011, Graham has been a better player than Pierre Paul. 2011 could literally be the outlier for both players and Graham, after their careers are over, will have far more production than Pierre Paul.

Pierre Paul might never break the 6 sack barrier again because he just isn't a good pass rusher and that 2011 season was just a fluke.
And Ladanian Tomlinson was a more productive passer than Philip Rivers on a per pass basis.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Really? I thought that they grade each player according to their opinion of how they performed on a play by play basis each SEASON. I wonder how they graded JPP a year ago? Also, I didn't know they were the ultimate authority on ranking players which all NFL GM trust as their personnel Bible. Did read the news about JPPs HC publically saying that he played too heavy this past year, or did you miss that?
Pierre Paul played too heavy last year = Graham didn't play because of torn ACL in 2011.

Circumstances are they way they are. Can't make excuses. At least Pierre Paul could control his weight if he chose to. Graham can't control the fact that he suffered a fluke ACL tear after his rookie season.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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It's funny how people treat running a slow 40 as proof that Jarvis Jones will not be a good player.
I don't think anyone is saying he won't be a good player just trying to justify him going at the top of the draft.

If a slow 40 means nothing what is the argument for Chase Thomas of Stanford (Georgia boy) not going higher, he was arguably the best defensive player in the Pac-12.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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What would you say if Aldon Smith or Jason Pierre Paul end up never breaking the 6 sack barrier ever again, while someone like Brandon Graham goes on to become Defensive Player of the Year within the next 4 years?

I wouldn't be shocked if their careers turn out this way at all. Graham has actually been a better pass rusher in his time on the field than Pierre Paul if you consider the "Pass Rushing Productivity" stat which measures more than just raw sacks and instead considers Sacks+Hits+Hurries PER RUSH.

Your opinion of this example of production vs potential would be alot different.



Production in college means more than "upside". The guys who succeed with "upside" are very rare, and the only example you can really point to is Jason Pierre Paul, who again, has not proven to be an elite player just yet, because he's basically had one good year and could end up being a one-year-wonder.
Hmm. So, how to the Saints routinely pull beast offensive lineman no one every heard off out of their a$$es every year? How much college production did Jimmy Graham have before he got drafted in the round? How about Richard Sherman, where does he fit in your perfect, unchallenged world of production over all? How did Jason Peters become a pro bowl LT when he was a TE in college? Surely someone had more production than Peter's NO production?

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Old 03-22-2013, 02:04 PM    (permalink
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Pierre Paul played too heavy last year = Graham didn't play because of torn ACL in 2011.

Circumstances are they way they are. Can't make excuses. At least Pierre Paul could control his weight if he chose to. Graham can't control the fact that he suffered a fluke ACL tear after his rookie season.
Which as nothing to do with who is BETTER. An in shape JPP ran circles of production around a healthy BG. But college production is everything to you because of your intense like of Landry Jones.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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And Ladanian Tomlinson was a more productive passer than Philip Rivers on a per pass basis.
Except that the sample sizes here are hugely out of whack and you know it. LT attempted 12 passes in a 9 year span. Rivers has attempted 3654 passes in a 7 year span.

Last year, Graham spent 421 snaps on defense whereas Pierre Paul spent 873 snaps on defense. Graham was limited due to the Philly 4-3 scheme's rotation of players and the DL coach's preference for Jason Babin as the starter.

However, 421 vs. 873 is a perfectly valid sample size comparison, and obviously far more valid than 12 passes in 9 years vs the volume of Rivers' pass attempts.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Has anyone else noticed that AcheTen is talking out of both sides of his mouth?

On one hand, he talks about "productivity per rush" to say that Brandon Graham was a more productive player than JPP or Aldon Smith even thou sack numbers are higher for the other 2.

On the other hand, AcheTen ignores the fact that Dion Jordan and Ezekial Ansah were not given the same opportunity to rush the passer on every play inthe way Jones was at Georgia.

So when others try to say that Jordan is more productive per rush because he was busy covering slot receivers and TEs more than half the time at Oregon, it's all about the sacks. But when others bring up JPP starting his career off better than Brandon Graham in terms of sacks, it's because Graham hasn't had enough opportunities to rush the passer.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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Which as nothing to do with who is BETTER. An in shape JPP ran circles of production around a healthy BG. But college production is everything to you because of your intense like of Landry Jones.
First of all, you don't even know if Pierre Paul was "out of shape" or it's just an excuse. Second of all, Graham was *injured* in 2011, as in he couldn't even play. If Pierre Paul had torn his ACL, he would have done absolutely nothing as well. So it's not even a valid comparison.

This past year both Graham and Pierre Paul were healthy and Graham was a better player. Simple as that. Going into the future, this trend could easiliy continue and 2011 will be seen as the outlier year.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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Has anyone else noticed that AcheTen is talking out of both sides of his mouth?

On one hand, he talks about "productivity per rush" to say that Brandon Graham was a more productive player than JPP or Aldon Smith even thou sack numbers are higher for the other 2.

On the other hand, AcheTen ignores the fact that Dion Jordan and Ezekial Ansah were not given the same opportunity to rush the passer on every play inthe way Jones was at Georgia.

So when others try to say that Jordan is more productive per rush because he was busy covering slot receivers and TEs more than half the time at Oregon, it's all about the sacks. But when others bring up JPP starting his career off better than Brandon Graham in terms of sacks, it's because Graham hasn't had enough opportunities to rush the passer.
Well then why are we drafting Jordan/Ansah in the top-15 as Pass Rushers? If he spent the majority of his career in college covering people in space, then let's evaluate him as a pass coverage linebacker and not as a pass rusher. If I'm picking a lineman or linebacker in the top-15, I want a pass rusher and not a coverage guy.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:15 PM    (permalink
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First of all, you don't even know if Pierre Paul was "out of shape" or it's just an excuse. Second of all, Graham was *injured* in 2011, as in he couldn't even play. If Pierre Paul had torn his ACL, he would have done absolutely nothing as well. So it's not even a valid comparison.

This past year both Graham and Pierre Paul were healthy and Graham was a better player. Simple as that. Going into the future, this trend could easiliy continue and 2011 will be seen as the outlier year.
Hey genius, his HEAD COACH said he wants him down for 285 normal weight of 275. Do you question his own HC??

Secondly, Graham's 2011 injury season does not weigh in the discussion whatsoever. The only person talking about it is you. You act like I said "Graham didn't do anything in 2011."

Third, where the HELL are you getting that he was a better player? Because of a criteria you defined, which was rush attempt % that lead to sacks or hurries? First of all, Graham didn't even START for his own team! JPP had over 20 more tackles. He can stop the run, a fact we know you don't like to talk about. Oh, and he had 17.5 sacks the previous year. I guess that's ancient history.

What is so hypocritical of you is that your entire argument comes down to what Graham MIGHT do in 2013, which brings the discussion away from production and right back to potential. Congratulations, you fail.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:16 PM    (permalink
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Well then why are we drafting Jordan/Ansah in the top-15 as Pass Rushers? If he spent the majority of his career in college covering people in space, then let's evaluate him as a pass coverage linebacker and not as a pass rusher. If I'm picking a lineman or linebacker in the top-15, I want a pass rusher and not a coverage guy.
Because that's what they project to do in the NFL. This is not hard.

No NFL team is sticking Ansah at 0-tech or 5-tech like BYU did. Jordan's athleticism does lend itself to more creativity (especially coverage-wise), which is why he gets compared to Julian Peterson so often. But he's a devastating pass rusher when allowed to do that.
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Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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I'm not even an Eagles fan...

Just remember: after the first three years of his career, Shawne Merriman was far and away the best defensive player from the 2005 draft and fans of the Cowboys were questioning why the team selected DeMarcus Ware, who had a slow start to his career, over Merriman.

Years later, Ware is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame and Merriman is long forgotten.

You literally cannot judge a draft class until at least 5+ years later, and sometimes even longer than that. Especially when injuries are involved, as with Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan being injured in their second years vs. Jason Pierre Paul staying healthy so far.
I guess I missed the memo that 11+ sacks per year in a 3-year start to a career was poor. And this argument also entirely fails to take into consideration Merriman's juicing, and his injuries.

But when Graham is hurt for a season and doesn't produce it should be explained away and it doesn't count.

Boy, you're just all spun around aren't you? That's what happens when you try to take statistics and arguments and spin them to fit your paradigm.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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Well then why are we drafting Jordan/Ansah in the top-15 as Pass Rushers? If he spent the majority of his career in college covering people in space, then let's evaluate him as a pass coverage linebacker and not as a pass rusher. If I'm picking a lineman or linebacker in the top-15, I want a pass rusher and not a coverage guy.
What the hell are you talking about? We were always evaluating them as players, you were the one evaluating them in terms of pass rush numbers only. If you are joining the party, it's been a long time coming. In the case of Ansah, I specifically spoke of his ability to chase down runners and something tells me you didn't forget that.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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Because that's what they project to do in the NFL. This is not hard.

No NFL team is sticking Ansah at 0-tech or 5-tech like BYU did. Jordan's athleticism does lend itself to more creativity (especially coverage-wise), which is why he gets compared to Julian Peterson so often. But he's a devastating pass rusher when allowed to do that.
If he played 0-tech or 5-tech in college, then he shouldn't be drafted in the top-15 as a pass rusher. He should be evaluated as a 0-tech/5-tech. Period.

Why don't we start asking if Cordarelle Patterson can play blocking-TE? Or if Xavier Rhodes can play 4-3 WLB?
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