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Old 03-20-2013, 10:56 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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I don't want to make a thread for all of these but here are some questions I've been mulling over.

1) How high can Tavon Austin climb? 6? He's the best slot receiver prospect... ever (in the modern sense). He's the top playmaker in the draft by far. No blemishes as a prospect. The only concern is size - and his durability has been fantastic. Plus, guys with only size as a concern (ONLY size, not size + athletic/strength deficeincies), seem to usually translate.

To add on to that - there are a bunch of teams who would love to add him picking later in round one. Could a team like SF, STL, HOU, CIN, CHI, or DAL trade up into the top 15 for him?

And a last part, could Patterson elicit a trade-up as well?

I'm not quite thinking a Julio-haul, but a similar ballsy move for a contender to move up for a top WR.

I'm looking at you, SF. And you NE. And you Houston. It worked in Atlanta, it's a matchup league, and all three need vertical WRs.

2) What's the status of Jason Peters as it relates to the Eagles taking an OT at pick No. 4? And would they do that even though LT isn't as important in Kelly's quickstrike offense? This question has many layers. Cap numbers, RT situation, and the idea that Fisher would indeed be the BPA at that slot.

In the end I don't think they value the position enough. But I'm no doctor. And I don't have the details of Peters' contract.

3) Is David Amerson really being considered as a FS by NFL teams?

He has the ability, I think. Anybody?

4) What RBs could be drafted to start (1a or 1b, most NFL teams have two starters in reality) right away? Besides Lacy, who are teams like the Rams, Bengals, Jets, Steelers, Chargers, and Packers going to target in the 2nd-3rd round. They all NEED starters (1a or 1b). Is Franklin expected to be that guy? Bell? Michael? Bernard? Etc. I've never seen so many teams with a PRESSING need at RB.

I like Bernard. I think he might be the answer. But you'd need to pair him with a big back as he's probably a 13-16 touches a game guy.

But the rest I'm iffy on which is why I actually think Eddie Lacy's value is higher than people think. There's a big demand for starting RBs this year and the supply for RBs isn't great - maybe I'm wrong - prove to me who could be a starter in this class.

In fact, the idea that RBs are easy to find is slowly being proven untrue - if they're so easy to find - where are they!? A bunch of teams simply can't find them at all.
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Old 03-20-2013, 11:09 PM    (permalink
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1.) I think the highest Tavon can climb is Jets @ 9. I have a firm belief that he is an ultra playmaker that will be able to make a difference year one since you can line him up in so many different spots. I can see the Jets pulling the trigger.

2.) I think Jason Peters will be good to go for beginning of season. The only question is WHEN we will he get injured again. Only a matter of time, or he is at least guaranteed to miss some games. In the end, healthy Peters or not, there line is still so bad that they need to get some help round 1 or 2, preferable one and grabbing one of those premier tackles even if it is for the RT spot in year 1.

3. I hope David Amerson can play FS because if not, I don't think he has a career in the NFL as a CB. What I saw this past season was absolutely disgusting as he got burned over and over to the point where you expected one long TD a game. The game vs Miami is probably the worse game tape you will ever watch on the guy. For his sake, I hope he can play FS.

4. The only back I think that can step in Day 1 and be a full bonafied starter is Lacy. I think Bernard has the ability to be a solid RB at some point but he has to go to the right team that will use him the right way his first season or 2 before he can handle full duties. 1B for ready to start day one I would give to Franklin from UCLA. I think this kid has all the tools and pretty much put UCLA on his back this past year and brought them back to a respectable program.
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Old 03-20-2013, 11:15 PM    (permalink
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1.) I think the highest Tavon can climb is Jets @ 9.
As pseudo Jets fan, I would be happy with this. I'd liken it to the BUF-Spiller situation a few years ago. My philosophy is best player and to me Austin would be that at No. 9 (I'll probably have him in my top 7ish).

However, one of the few positions the Jets have a young starter at is slot. Kerley is a good player.

A player like him wouldn't preclude ME from drafting Austin, but for the Jets, espeically with SO MANY other needs, it probably will.
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:13 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, my friend still makes fun of how fast Buffalo ran to the stage and picked Spiller that year. Literally we had our pick in @ 8 in about 15 seconds.

We were so desperate for a chance at a playmaker on offense, and even though we had Lynch (who was in full decline professionally and personally at the time) and FJax (front office still didn't want to depend on him) - they felt they could not pass up Spiller. Definitely could be the same situation with the Jets who are still looking for some sort of savior for their offense. If Stephen Hill can progress like everyone in the Jets organization is hoping, him combined with Austin can be a dangerous duo.
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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i look at amerson almost exclusively as a FS. Great size, speed, ball skills, and hitting ability but he plays so much better when the play is in front of him
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Old 03-21-2013, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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Tavon's one of the top players in the draft for me, too, so I have no problem with him going top-ten. For the running backs, I think Christine Michael can contribute right away, but for an all-around starter I'm throwing Zac Stacy out there again. He's got everything, he does everything, and I'm not sure why you don't hear about him more except that he played for Vanerbilt. I think he's going to be a starter when it's all said and done. He's a lot like Frank Gore. Might be a hair more athletic/explosive.

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Old 03-21-2013, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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I still love Austin but I don't believe he is a sure fire 1st rounder. He is strictly a slot receiver and given his size, a long career without injury is doubtful. Desean Jackson had 1st round skill but dropped to round 2 because of his size and Austin could face the same fate.

In the end, he will go late round 1 or early round 2, I seriously doubt any NFL team will risk a high 1st rounder on him based on his size alone, but a team very late in round 1 may take a shot, but I think early round 2 is far more likely. If he was bigger, he would be a top 10 talent.

Peters should be good to go and it should affect who the Eagles take in round 1. If they are confident in his health and they can afford his salary, they go elsewhere in round 1. If either his health or his salary is a question mark, then they take a LT in round 1. Only they know which scenario is reality.

Amerson probably gets drafted to play CB, North Carolina St. weren't exactly loaded witrh talent and without a solid pass rush, a CB can look bad no matter how good he is. He'll start out as a CB and only if he fails there will he be shunted to Safety.

The RB crop is pretty weak IMO with only Lacy having potentially 1st round talent and he is a huge question mark because he cannot workout. Again, IMO, the rest of the RB's look like 3rd round talent and most of the better ones will get drafted in rounds 3 or 4. There just isn't a whole lot there to be excited about.
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Old 03-21-2013, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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Love the love Austin is receiving here. Despite his size, I think he is actually one of the safest players to draft this year. I think he will succeed in the NFL and I'm excited to see him play on Sundays after watching his entire career at WVU. Ultimately, I see him going in the 20's.

I'm interested to see where all of these RB prospects end up as well. People talk about it being a weaker year for QB's in this draft, but I think the same could also be said about this RB class. I know the importance of the positions are very different but I could make a long list of RB's in this class and I wouldn't be surprised if each one broke out in some way in the NFL or completely flamed out within a few years. There is some talent, yes, but a lot more questions, IMO. Just how good is Lacy? Another product of a great O line at 'bama? Can Bernard carry a load against NFL competition? Can Lattimore come back from injury? Does Ball have too many carries in his college career to do much more in the NFL? Do guys like Michael or Dyer have the desire and drive to succeed in the NFL?
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Old 03-21-2013, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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I still love Austin but I don't believe he is a sure fire 1st rounder. He is strictly a slot receiver and given his size, a long career without injury is doubtful. Desean Jackson had 1st round skill but dropped to round 2 because of his size and Austin could face the same fate.

In the end, he will go late round 1 or early round 2, I seriously doubt any NFL team will risk a high 1st rounder on him based on his size alone, but a team very late in round 1 may take a shot, but I think early round 2 is far more likely. If he was bigger, he would be a top 10 talent.
he was never injured in college; 4 year starter and he missed a total of 4 PLAYS

he is also good at being able to find the sidelines and i never once saw him take a good clean hit in 4 years
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Old 03-21-2013, 04:50 PM    (permalink
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he was never injured in college; 4 year starter and he missed a total of 4 PLAYS

he is also good at being able to find the sidelines and i never once saw him take a good clean hit in 4 years
And he's extremely slippery and tough to get a hand on in the first place...

And DeSean dropped because he was a ******* idiot and probably interviewed horribly...
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Old 03-21-2013, 05:29 PM    (permalink
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he was never injured in college; 4 year starter and he missed a total of 4 PLAYS

he is also good at being able to find the sidelines and i never once saw him take a good clean hit in 4 years
Truth. That's what I always tell people. It's hard to get a big hit on this guy.
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Old 03-21-2013, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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he was never injured in college; 4 year starter and he missed a total of 4 PLAYS

he is also good at being able to find the sidelines and i never once saw him take a good clean hit in 4 years
I don't care how slippery he is and I love his ability, but in the NFL, a guy this small, can see his career end with one hit. This isn't college ball.
GM's will simply be reluctent to draft him in round 1 which is where his talent lies, because there will be that question mark hanging over him. I for one, won't be shocked if he lasts till early round 2.
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Old 03-21-2013, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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A career can always "end in one hit." He's built better than Ted Ginn and a host of other players who are still playing just fine.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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I doubt SF trades up for Austin. Trent Baalke is very much a needs drafter early on, he will take a player at a position he feels is their #1 need. Did it in 2010 with the OL (Davis, Iupati) and 2011 (OLB in Aldon, QB with Kaep, CB with Culliver).

The 49ers biggest needs this offseason are DB and DL so no trade up for a WR. Probably not too smart to trade up for a S or NT either. Maybe a CB or disruptive 5 tech.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:48 PM    (permalink
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I don't care how slippery he is and I love his ability, but in the NFL, a guy this small, can see his career end with one hit. This isn't college ball.
GM's will simply be reluctent to draft him in round 1 which is where his talent lies, because there will be that question mark hanging over him. I for one, won't be shocked if he lasts till early round 2.
I hate to keep bringing up the same example as everyone else but Desean Jackson seems to be making it in the NFL just fine, and his career could easily end in 1 hit with how small his frame is compared to the other players. He avoids the big hit though with his skill set (except for when Dunta Robinson tried to take his head off).
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:57 PM    (permalink
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1. I think a trade up for Austin or Patterson only come into play if they get to 15. Nobody is trading in the top 10 for either. Of course, I could see Patterson going in the top 10 (Buffalo). Austin I don't see going any higher than 15.

2. Don't see the Eagles taking OT. I think they take Milliner or someone in the defensive front 7 if they are going to a 3-4 D.

3. I think he's a CB until proven otherwise. I'd imagine a Cover 2 base team will go after him in the 2nd, and I doubt he'd get past the Vikings, Bengals, Colts area of the 2nd round.

4. I don't think anyone in the league feels they have a "pressing" need at RB. But I do think at some point teams that have had trouble running the ball have to get a guy that's potentially a star at RB. While this is a passing league, at some point you have to be able to have the threat of running the ball with success. I think the SuperBowl teams showed how a big time RB can open up a passing game. Imagine what a big time RB could do for a team with a QB like Rodgers with his weapons at receiver.
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Old 03-21-2013, 09:28 PM    (permalink
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I hate to keep bringing up the same example as everyone else but Desean Jackson seems to be making it in the NFL just fine, and his career could easily end in 1 hit with how small his frame is compared to the other players. He avoids the big hit though with his skill set (except for when Dunta Robinson tried to take his head off).
I agree, Desean Jackson is a perfect comparison to Austin and he went round 2 for the same reason. GM's are scared to hell that these types will have very short careers. The rookie salary cap may play in Austin's favour since the $$$'s tied up in a late 1st rounder are no longer that significant but I really doubt he goes very high in round 1.
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Old 03-22-2013, 09:36 AM    (permalink
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Maybe Buffalo runs up to the stage for Austin too. That'd be an interesting offense all of a sudden. GOtta find a QB of course though.
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Old 03-22-2013, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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I doubt SF trades up for Austin. Trent Baalke is very much a needs drafter early on, he will take a player at a position he feels is their #1 need. Did it in 2010 with the OL (Davis, Iupati) and 2011 (OLB in Aldon, QB with Kaep, CB with Culliver).

The 49ers biggest needs this offseason are DB and DL so no trade up for a WR. Probably not too smart to trade up for a S or NT either. Maybe a CB or disruptive 5 tech.
He also drafted AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James at #1 and #2. I don't think he has a pattern other than following his own rules.
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Old 03-22-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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Maybe Buffalo runs up to the stage for Austin too. That'd be an interesting offense all of a sudden. GOtta find a QB of course though.
lol - always possible with Buffalo.

And I know you are a firm believer that we will be waiting for Nassib ( and i die inside)
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:19 PM    (permalink
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Hard to really use size as a prediction of durability. There are other factors more important. Warrick Dunn was much more durable than Ron Dayne was.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Hard to really use size as a prediction of durability. There are other factors more important. Warrick Dunn was much more durable than Ron Dayne was.
This is true, but generally speaking teams view frail builds as problematic for future injuries.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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This is true, but generally speaking teams view frail builds as problematic for future injuries.
Thing is, Austin's build isn't frail. It's simply compact... which actually reduces injury risk. He's strong too.

If he was 6'0" tall and weighed 174 pounds, he'd be frail.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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Whoever picks Tavon Austin early-mid in the first round is going is going to get burned hard. They're going to think they're getting the next Percy Harvin, but Percy Harvin is freakishly strong for his size--- it's honestly his greatest strength. Tavon Austin is not.
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Old 03-22-2013, 05:39 PM    (permalink
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Whoever picks Tavon Austin early-mid in the first round is going is going to get burned hard. They're going to think they're getting the next Percy Harvin, but Percy Harvin is freakishly strong for his size--- it's honestly his greatest strength. Tavon Austin is not.
I'm not sure any NFL team believes this. Fans? Maybe. I've watched him his whole career and I don't believe they compare much. Tavon Austin is Tavon Austin.
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