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Old 03-22-2013, 01:20 PM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Originally Posted by nobodyinparticular View Post
I guess I missed the memo that 11+ sacks per year in a 3-year start to a career was poor. And this argument also entirely fails to take into consideration Merriman's juicing, and his injuries.

But when Graham is hurt for a season and doesn't produce it should be explained away and it doesn't count.
In one sentence you talk about taking into consideration Merrimans' injuries, and then in the next you question how it applies to Graham?
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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If he played 0-tech or 5-tech in college, then he shouldn't be drafted in the top-15 as a pass rusher. He should be evaluated as a 0-tech/5-tech. Period.

Why don't we start asking if Cordarelle Patterson can play blocking-TE? Or if Xavier Rhodes can play 4-3 WLB?
I think we broke AcheTen.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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I guess I missed the memo that 11+ sacks per year in a 3-year start to a career was poor. And this argument also entirely fails to take into consideration Merriman's juicing, and his injuries.

But when Graham is hurt for a season and doesn't produce it should be explained away and it doesn't count.

Boy, you're just all spun around aren't you? That's what happens when you try to take statistics and arguments and spin them to fit your paradigm.
Oh no, you were supposed to edit out JPPs 2011 stats. They no longer matter to Achy Breaky, just ask him.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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Hey genius, his HEAD COACH said he wants him down for 285 normal weight of 275. Do you question his own HC??

Secondly, Graham's 2011 injury season does not weigh in the discussion whatsoever. The only person talking about it is you. You act like I said "Graham didn't do anything in 2011."

Third, where the HELL are you getting that he was a better player? Because of a criteria you defined, which was rush attempt % that lead to sacks or hurries? First of all, Graham didn't even START for his own team! JPP had over 20 more tackles. He can stop the run, a fact we know you don't like to talk about. Oh, and he had 17.5 sacks the previous year. I guess that's ancient history.
Pass rush productivity is a highly respected stat created by Profootballfocus.com which measures a pass rushers' impact OUTSIDE of just sacks. Hits, hurries, and pressures in general contribute to a defense's effectiveness just as much, if not more, than sacks in many cases.

Oh, and JPP stopping the run? He's alright. But remember that the Giants were one of the worst defensive lines at stopping the run last year.

We already discussed this: 2011 is an outlier for both players because of a high number of pressures turned into sacks (Pierre Paul) and injury (Graham).


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What is so hypocritical of you is that your entire argument comes down to what Graham MIGHT do in 2013, which brings the discussion away from production and right back to potential. Congratulations, you fail.
Actually I'm talking about how Graham has been a better player than JPP on a per-snap basis for every season so far except the one in which he was injured and didn't have a chance to play. I'm using this information to make future extrapolations to bolster a previous argument.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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If he played 0-tech or 5-tech in college, then he shouldn't be drafted in the top-15 as a pass rusher. He should be evaluated as a 0-tech/5-tech. Period.

Why don't we start asking if Cordarelle Patterson can play blocking-TE? Or if Xavier Rhodes can play 4-3 WLB?
But he will be, and Patterson will be playing WR, and Rhodes will be playing CB, and you can watch it all unfold from Never Ever Land.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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In one sentence you talk about taking into consideration Merrimans' injuries, and then in the next you question how it applies to Graham?
Hahaha!!! YOU were the one who first did that! YOU brought up Graham's injuries and yet you fail to take Merriman's injuries into account when considering why his career is already over. YOU are the one taking out of both sides of your mouth on the injury issue.

THAT is exactly what I was pointing out. I'm glad you see the hypocrisy in it. Because you are the one guilty of it.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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If he played 0-tech or 5-tech in college, then he shouldn't be drafted in the top-15 as a pass rusher. He should be evaluated as a 0-tech/5-tech. Period.

Why don't we start asking if Cordarelle Patterson can play blocking-TE? Or if Xavier Rhodes can play 4-3 WLB?
You're right. And we should evaluate Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates as power forwards, Nnamdi Asomugha only as a FS, Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware as DEs, Brian Urlacher as a safety and Jason Peters as a TE.

No conversions! You must play the same position you did in college!
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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Hahaha!!! YOU were the one who first did that! YOU brought up Graham's injuries and yet you fail to take Merriman's injuries into account when considering why his career is already over. YOU are the one taking out of both sides of your mouth on the injury issue.

THAT is exactly what I was pointing out. I'm glad you see the hypocrisy in it. Because you are the one guilty of it.
You're missing the point in all of this. Injuries are a fact of life in the NFL.

Sure, Merriman might have been a productive player if he had never been injured. Graham might have put up 14+ sacks as well in 2011 if he hadn't been injured and had played full-time.

But the fact of the matter is that injuries do happen, and you have to accept them in your evaluation of a player.

Just as I'm using injuries to explain away 2011 in Graham's case, I can use injuries to explain away post-2008 in Merriman's case, right? It's like the inverse of Graham in this case. What if we take away both injuries and Graham is clearly the better player than Pierre Paul over the first three years? What if we take away Merriman's injuries and he is as good as Ware or better up til this point?
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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Pass rush productivity is a highly respected stat created by Profootballfocus.com which measures a pass rushers' impact OUTSIDE of just sacks. Hits, hurries, and pressures in general contribute to a defense's effectiveness just as much, if not more, than sacks in many cases.

Okay, I know what it is. What you don't seem to get is that it doesn't determine a players worth in the NFL. Do you understand that? You have purposely chosen a stat that you hope lends support that Graham is a better player who by the way started six out of 16 games last year.....on a garbage defense. You couldn't be more obvious.

Oh, and JPP stopping the run? He's alright. But remember that the Giants were one of the worst defensive lines at stopping the run last year.

And you remember that the Eagles defense couldn't stop high school marching band in a Thanksgiving day parade.


We already discussed this: 2011 is an outlier for both players because of a high number of pressures turned into sacks (Pierre Paul) and injury (Graham).

Okay, glad you see it my way because I am actually the one who said that, but whatever.

Actually I'm talking about how Graham has been a better player than JPP on a per-snap basis for every season so far except the one in which he was injured and didn't have a chance to play. I'm using this information to make future extrapolations to bolster a previous argument.
Future extrapolations? Please tell me you aren't naive enough and desperate enough to actually present this as part of your argument. YOU are the one that put all your eggs in the production basket and now you are arguing against yourself. You can't extrapolate anything without completely contradicting the very foundation that your crap argument was built upon. This shows that production isn't everything.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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You're right. And we should evaluate Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates as power forwards, Nnamdi Asomugha only as a FS, Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware as DEs, Brian Urlacher as a safety and Jason Peters as a TE.

No conversions! You must play the same position you did in college!
- Using the Gonzalez/Gates examples is lazy thinking because they clearly played a specific position in college football that they played in the NFL. You can't compare basketball positions to future NFL positions because it's simply not the same sport. A basketball player could easily succeed in the NFL at a particular position. Being a good basketball player at a certain position does not preclude them from being a good football player at a different position in the same way that being a, say, a 0-tech in college should preclude someone from making an easy switch to pash rusher in the NFL.

- In the Tampa-2 system that the Bears ran under Lovie Smith which made Urlacher an excellent pro, the Middle Linebacker is actually considered to be somewhat of a deep safety. He covers the deep middle of the field by dropping back at the snap of the ball. So in effect, Urlacher was basically playing glorified FS in Chicago for all of his productive years.

- The DE / 3-4 OLB comparison is usually the exception to the rule when switching positions from college to NFL. Those players both rush the passer predominantly and are far more similar than any other two positions. There is a long history/ track record of DEs in college becoming 3-4 OLBs in the NFL and vice versa. It's a proven conversion because the position is basically identical except for the 3-4 OLBs slightly more expanded pass-coverage responsibilities, and that's basically it.

- Jason Peters is one of the extremely rare exceptions to the rule and you can't bring that up because he's an extreme outlier. TEs do not become OTs.

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Old 03-22-2013, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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Future extrapolations? Please tell me you aren't naive enough and desperate enough to actually present this as part of your argument. YOU are the one that put all your eggs in the production basket and now you are arguing against yourself. You can't extrapolate anything without completely contradicting the very foundation that your crap argument was built upon. This shows that production isn't everything.
I'm using current production to extrapolate future potential. Whcih is exactly what I'm doing when I say that Jarvis Jones will be the best pass rusher in this class based on current production, and that Ansah and Mingo will bust due to lack of production. Duh?
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Pass rush productivity is a highly respected stat created by Profootballfocus.com which measures a pass rushers' impact OUTSIDE of just sacks. Hits, hurries, and pressures in general contribute to a defense's effectiveness just as much, if not more, than sacks in many cases.

Oh, and JPP stopping the run? He's alright. But remember that the Giants were one of the worst defensive lines at stopping the run last year.

We already discussed this: 2011 is an outlier for both players because of a high number of pressures turned into sacks (Pierre Paul) and injury (Graham).




Actually I'm talking about how Graham has been a better player than JPP on a per-snap basis for every season so far except the one in which he was injured and didn't have a chance to play. I'm using this information to make future extrapolations to bolster a previous argument.
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You're right. And we should evaluate Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates as power forwards, Nnamdi Asomugha only as a FS, Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware as DEs, Brian Urlacher as a safety and Jason Peters as a TE.

No conversions! You must play the same position you did in college!
If Achey was the GM of the Steelers, Hines Ward would never have been drafted and Randell El would have been picked in the top ten as a QB.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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If Achey was the GM of the Steelers, Hines Ward would never have been drafted and Randell El would have been picked in the top ten as a QB.
I wouldn't have draftd Randel El as a QB any sooner than the 7th round. He wasn't a good QB prospect. And I probably wouldln't ahve drafted him as a WR either. So I miss out on Randel-El. Oh well.

And why would I not have drafted Hines Ward? I probably wouldn't ahve drafted him with a first round or even second round pick, but he had decent production in college - 144 receptions for 1,965 yards as a WR in college.
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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I'm using current production to extrapolate future potential. Whcih is exactly what I'm doing when I say that Jarvis Jones will be the best pass rusher in this class based on current production, and that Ansah and Mingo will bust due to lack of production. Duh?
DUH, they aren't continuing in college, they are all making the leap to the NFL. It simply does not work that way and that's you entire problem. Again, where are all the Texas Tech and Hawaii QBs in the NFL??? And how do you explain JPP average 11 sacks a year with his lack of production in college? The only extrapolating you need to do is to bend over and take these knowledge straps to you stubborn ass.

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Old 03-22-2013, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't have draftd Randel El as a QB any sooner than the 7th round. He wasn't a good QB prospect. And I probably wouldln't ahve drafted him as a WR either. So I miss out on Randel-El. Oh well.

And why would I not have drafted Hines Ward? I probably wouldn't ahve drafted him with a first round or even second round pick, but he had decent production in college - 144 receptions for 1,965 yards as a WR in college.
Really??? Now I am really confused. I thought it was all about production?? What, this production not good enough for you?? From Wikipedia:

He finished his college career as fifth on the all-time NCAA total yardage list, and became the first player in college football history to record 2,500 total yards for each of four consecutive years. Tallying 7,469 passing yards, 3,895 rushing yards, and 92 touchdowns running and passing for his college career...

You didn't extrapolate that??
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Old 03-22-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Jarvis Jones Given Clean Bill of Health
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Really??? Now I am really confused. I thought it was all about production?? What, this production not good enough for you?? From Wikipedia:

He finished his college career as fifth on the all-time NCAA total yardage list, and became the first player in college football history to record 2,500 total yards for each of four consecutive years. Tallying 7,469 passing yards, 3,895 rushing yards, and 92 touchdowns running and passing for his college career...

You didn't extrapolate that??
QB evaluation is entirely different from evaluation of other positions. QB is as much a mental position as a physical position, and production totals matter but physical traits and mental traits matter just as much.

Whereas you can put more stock into raw numbers for positions such as pass rusher, WR, TE, etc. You have to evaluate QBs not only on their production (because it does matter - you want a high completion %, time in school, and wins) but also on their height, arm strength, and intangibles.

QB is so much different than any other position on the football field.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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Hmm, I wonder what DCers think about Jones' being given a clean bill of health and how it will affect his draft position. Let's click the thread.

Let's see, what the...

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Old 03-22-2013, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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Undersized and slow. And questionable back issues.

You guys can make that gamble, but I wouldn't. He'd be off my board. Remember Daquan Bowers.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:38 PM    (permalink
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Having that said, I can see Jones having a great career too. It's just a gamble I'm not willing to take.
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
QB evaluation is entirely different from evaluation of other positions. QB is as much a mental position as a physical position, and production totals matter but physical traits and mental traits matter just as much.

Whereas you can put more stock into raw numbers for positions such as pass rusher, WR, TE, etc. You have to evaluate QBs not only on their production (because it does matter - you want a high completion %, time in school, and wins) but also on their height, arm strength, and intangibles.

QB is so much different than any other position on the football field.
Nobody is saying production doesn't matter. Just that its a bit extreme to throw everything else out the window. Ansah is new to the game and has a higher ceiling than most. Mingo wasn't let loose like Jones. Do you doubt that Mingo would have had similar production if he played on Georgia instead, whether OLB or DE? Jones otoh has his own set of question marks. Lack of speed and explosion, possible health issues and possible work ethic issues.
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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This is starting to seem like "What if Ricky Elmore had gone to Georgia gotten SEC hype?"
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:06 PM    (permalink
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As for the whole Graham > Pierre-Paul comparison, you can't just say Graham was better than Pierre-Paul because of what is ultimately a meaningless stat provided by Pro Football Focus. I for one don't like it because it fails to take way too many things into consideration.

In the games where Brandon Graham was a starter, here are his stats, and here are the stats of JPP against those same teams. If you want to compare player productivity, then you must make the situations as similar as possible, and without taking into consideration injuries to other teams and whatnot, because quite frankly I don't want to dedicate that much time to it, here's it is:

Graham
@ Dallas (away) - 4 solo tackles, 2 assisted, 1.5 sacks,
@ Tampa Bay - 2 tackles, 0 assisted, 0 sacks
vs. Cincinnati - 4 tackles, 2 assisted, 2.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble
vs. Washington (at home) - 6 tackles, 1 assisted, 0 sacks
@ Giants - 2 tackles, 0 assisted, 0 sacks

Total: 18 tackles, 5 assisted, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble

JPP
@ Dallas (away) - 3 solo tackles, 1 assisted, 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 TD, 1 pass def.
vs. Tampa Bay - 4 tackles, 4 assisted, 1 sack
@ Cincinnati - 3 tackles, 2 assisted, 0 sacks
vs. Washington (at home) - 3 tackles, 1 assisted, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble
vs. PHI - 4 tackles, 1 assisted, 0 sacks

Total: 17 tackles, 9 assisted, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 TD, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended.

Hard to say Graham is better.

And what am I trying to prove with this? Two things.

1. Graham is not a better player than JPP right now, regardless of what PFF says. Might have been slightly more productive some games, but other than that one game vs. Cincinnati, he wasn't anything special.

2. Stats simply don't mean anything when evaluating players, because there are so many more things that can and should be taken into consideration but aren't. How talented the guy they're playing against is (different to beat Joe Thomas than it is J'Marcus Webb), if they were double teamed, how long the QB took to throw the ball (aka was it a coverage sack), did they effectively beat the blockers or did they **** up, when their moves work (aka the Freeney spin, very visible to see when he beats a guy), etc. Way too many factors are simply ignored. From what I see, they only count how many times a guy rushes, how many hurries he gets, and how many sacks he gets. That's pretty basic and simple and, in my opinion, incomplete.

And more importantly, stats can be manipulated into backing up whatever it is you want to back up.
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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Guys...don't feed the troll.
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
Jarvis Jones Given Clean Bill of Health
LOL, e.i., uninjured. Can't have it both ways, fellas.
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