Originally Posted by Iamcanadian
This is a very solid point although 150 is way too many. I've certainly heard that the difference between the #5 pick and the 25th pick is negligible and no doubt will lead to some real shockers on draft day as mockers and rumours turnout to be dead wrong, but 150 is a bit of an exaggeration IMO.
I didn't really make the point very clear.
Obviously there is a big difference between 5 and 150. But what I am saying, is that there aren't these steep precipices of talent drop off throughout the 150.
Meaning if you are looking for WRs in late round 1, you aren't going to feel compelled to take one when the WRs in late round 2 look just slightly worse. And if you are in late round 2, those available in late round 3 aren't that much worse either.
It's a very smooth and shallow slope. If you look at it from say pick 20 to pick 130 -- yeah it looks a lot different. But if you're looking at say OL and WR, you can pretty much expect a quality starter in rounds one, two or three. And possibly a guy who starts before seasons' end in round 4.
Round to round, the quality is very consistent. I don't see a lot of teams feeling like they HAVE to take their #1 need with their first or even second pick outside of maybe the top 15 players.
Take for example, if you were Tampa Bay. They need corners. There are a lot of good corners in this draft. They won't get the best one (Milliner), but they could get 2 quality starters even if they trade down to the back half of round 1. And there is a high likelihood that the second CB they take could end up being the better of the two. The quality difference is that close.
I guess an more concise way of putting it is: This talent pool feels like the second round starts at about pick 20 and goes on till about pick 150. A lot of 3rd and 4th round guys are going to be expected to produce like a normal years' 2nd round pick.
There isn't much difference between 5 and 25. There is probably less difference between 26 and 45. And then again between 46 and 75.
If you look at it in blocks of picks -- teams aren't going to be hard pressed take a non need pick because someone happened to fall. Because that falling prospect isn't THAT much more impressive than a need pick that is generically available where they pick. A first round prospect could continue to fall based on what teams need and whether they fit.