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Old 04-04-2013, 01:17 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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It's not only about the deep ball with him though. Go back and watch the playoff game. And look at the gameplan against Dalton.

He can't throw deep or the intermediate out. So the defense clogged the middle of the field and basically dared him to throw that intermediate out all game long. He couldn't do it.

You saw the results. He was atrocious. Then combine that with his misses on the deep patterns and it just makes for a severely limited qb.

Remember, mediocre means average. That's the definition of mediocre. Dalton will never be anything more than mediocre bc of his limitations. He handicaps the playbook. That's why his best success is when the run game is giving the defense a heavy dose. Bc he needs the PA pass to open up those windows so his floaters can get there without being intercepted.

He has been improving his arm strength, but not by much. He needs to display a significant improvement in that area in order to prevent his limitations from restricting his ability.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Dalton is nowhere near mediocre.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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Greg Cossell made a great point about limited quarterbacks that largely goes unnoticed:

A lot of times you can't judge them on the throws they make, you have to judge them on the throws they didn't make. And the only way to know that is by looking at the all 22. Qbs with weak arms often times look like they superficially made the right decision or it was someone else's fault that they took the sack etc, but that's not the case all the time. A lot of times they have someone open, but they don't trust their arm to deliver the throw, and they don't make it.

So you'll see an efficient safe throw being made, you'll see a high completion % and low turnover rate (sometimes depending on his trigger finger) and think he's doing a good job.

When that's not necessarily the case. Alex Smith is the poster boy for this.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Btw, I love how the rebuttle is simply "nah uh!"

Excellent. It's like my basketball trolling in reverse for football.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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Here is Dalton throwing the deep ball in college.

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Old 04-04-2013, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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It's much more about decision makings and trusting his reads. His arm strength will improve. He needs to stop locking on AJ. Just go look at the Bengals game last year...he was so easy to read for the DBs.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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I'm not concerned really about the deep ball. The deep ball is not a measure of arm strength. The intermediate out, the ability to stick it btw 2 defenders with velocity in the middle of the field 18 yards down the field, a skinny post 18 yards down the field btw 2 defenders, those are the arm strength throws. The throws that require velocity.

The deep ball is not a measure of arm strength. It's a measure of accuracy. Big difference.

He can eventually improve his deep ball. But I question if he'll ever be able to make the intermediate out.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Greg Cossell made a great point about limited quarterbacks that largely goes unnoticed:

A lot of times you can't judge them on the throws they make, you have to judge them on the throws they didn't make. And the only way to know that is by looking at the all 22. Qbs with weak arms often times look like they superficially made the right decision or it was someone else's fault that they took the sack etc, but that's not the case all the time. A lot of times they have someone open, but they don't trust their arm to deliver the throw, and they don't make it.

So you'll see an efficient safe throw being made, you'll see a high completion % and low turnover rate (sometimes depending on his trigger finger) and think he's doing a good job.

When that's not necessarily the case. Alex Smith is the poster boy for this.
I think you're really overvaluing arm strength. Jeff Garcia and Joe Montana didn't have great arms here in San Francisco, but one was a great player and the other was a good player. Chad Pennington's arm wasn't great with the Jets, but he was still a good quarterback as well when he was healthy. We've seen guys with elite arms just not go anywhere really. Jeff George for instance. Aaron Brooks. If it's not clicking upstairs, your arm talent isn't going to save your career.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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Dalton is mediocre. He's a grandma in the driver's seat of a Ferrari.
One of the best analogies I've ever read.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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I do agree that he needs to improve his velocity. I don't think he's so far away from the 10-15 area when we talk of starting QBs.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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That is all true. He does need to make better decisions, and make his progressions faster. And he can improve as a result.

I just question if he'll ever be able to improve enough to overcome his limitations. Maybe I'm being harsh, but I'm highly skeptical. I hope he proves me wrong, as I like Cinncy, but I just don't see it.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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I think you're really overvaluing arm strength. Jeff Garcia and Joe Montana didn't have great arms here in San Francisco, but one was a great player and the other was a good player. Chad Pennington's arm wasn't great with the Jets, but he was still a good quarterback as well when he was healthy. We've seen guys with elite arms just not go anywhere really. Jeff George for instance. Aaron Brooks. If it's not clicking upstairs, your arm talent isn't going to save your career.
Of course arm strength isn't the end all be all. But you need a certain level of arm strength to succeed, that just goes without saying.

Joe Montana btw had more arm strength than he's given credit for. It wasn't John Elway's arm, but he absolutely had a stronger arm than Dalton.

And the rest...meh? I mean Chad has always been the definition of mediocre, Garcia was never anything special. Brad Johnson was a bus driver.

You need a certain level of arm strength to be a good qb in this league. You can reach a baseline level of "he won't lose us the game" with a weak arm if you are smart and make wise decisions and have great anticipation skills, but that's about it.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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Garcia was never anything special.
I don't know about that, he put up some really good years with the 49ers.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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pretty sure he had the best qb rating ever for a little while lol
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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I don't know about that, he put up some really good years with the 49ers.
How many? 2? I honestly would have to go back and actually break down his games from those years to see if it was a function of the team around him or if he really made some great throws to be honest.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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That is all true. He does need to make better decisions, and make his progressions faster. And he can improve as a result.

I just question if he'll ever be able to improve enough to overcome his limitations. Maybe I'm being harsh, but I'm highly skeptical. I hope he proves me wrong, as I like Cinncy, but I just don't see it.
I do think this year is crucial for his development but I don't think the Bengals will throw the towel on him just yet. You'd think that Gruden will have worked with him to correct his flaws and that he will be back with improved reads and much more confidence in his decisions making. I like him a lot and think he will succeed. I really hope he prove you wrong.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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We do know what Flynn is. He's a guy who couldn't even get a contract offer from his former OC who saw him for 4 years. He's a guy who regardless of his injury, lost the job to a rookie qb (who didn't start the season well).

He's a guy who we have 4 years of preseason tape on, 2 regular season games, and 4 preseason games with the Seahawks. He's a guy who is a solid decision maker, but is ultimately limited by a weak arm who can't make all the throws and thus narrows the field.

In this league, the bottom line is if you can't make all the throws, you're not a starting caliber qb. It's why Alex Smith is mediocre, it's why Dalton is mediocre, it's why Fitzpatrick is mediocre etc.

All of them have the brains, character, poise etc, but they don't have the arm. And at the end of the day, this game does come down to athleticism even at the qb position.

We know what Flynn is.
Come on. He lost the job to Russell freaking Wilson who by all accounts was as impressive as any QB in a QB battle has ever been from top to bottom... and he had an injury during preseason which gave Wilson a huge advantage.

In those 2 games of film he was amazing...

Your point about Philbin isn't a bad one. But because one coach didn't want to pay more than what Seattle did (and he loved Tanny all along) that doesn't mean the guy is worthless.

Yes, Philbin didn't acquire him. But 2 separate Green Bay GMs parted with a lot of cap space and/or draft picks to get him.

It's unfair to say we know what he is when he hasn't had a chance yet. Somehow the two Packer games are actually held against him which is pretty mind-boggling.

We know what Dalton is - he could still get better but he's got two full seasons as a starter. We don't with Flynn.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Btw, I love how the rebuttle is simply "nah uh!"

Excellent. It's like my basketball trolling in reverse for football.
I agree with you about your previous post about limited QBs, but Dalton's so close that I think he can get there and will be able to make all of the throws. It's not like Tom Brady and Drew Brees were able to do what they do now when they were first breaking in, but that arm strength was something they worked on and made themselves no longer limited by. Dalton's shown improvement in his ability to connect deep in the NFL and get the ball all over the field with enough zip, and I think he's in the process of getting out of the limited QB category.

The playoff game IMO was more an example of his youth and gingerness leading to timidity in that individual game, but if he learns from that and is more aggressive with trusting his arm when hitting all of the guys that aren't being paid attention to because of AJ, I think he can be the guy for them.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.

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Old 04-04-2013, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Wootylicous View Post
I do think this year is crucial for his development but I don't think the Bengals will throw the towel on him just yet. You'd think that Gruden will have worked with him to correct his flaws and that he will be back with improved reads and much more confidence in his decisions making. I like him a lot and think he will succeed. I really hope he prove you wrong.
I'd give him 2 more years, I think that's fair. Well...I'd definitely give him this year, and if he shows improvement then a year after that.

I hope he does too. I really do. But for him to take that next step, I think there's no question that he must improve his arm strength in any way he can. Bc the status quo is not gonna get it done.

I don't know how much you can improve arm strength though. He can muscle up his body and throw more with his base, but how much that effects your arm strength is questionable. In a clean pocket sure, but no one ever gets a pocket that's always clean. He's not gonna get to set his feet every play, nor will he get to reset his feet every play.

So it'll be interesting for sure.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:55 PM    (permalink
Wootylicous
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I think his velocity is much more important for his development. Arm strength will come with years.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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Velocity is arm strength.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:08 PM    (permalink
Wootylicous
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Velocity is much more arm speed.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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You're talking about release? I think arm speed is necessary for your release. Which is part of the equation too, you need a quick release.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:13 PM    (permalink
Wootylicous
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I believe we are talking about the same thing. Just different terms.

Arm speed for me is about quick release, increasing the speed of the ball, zip on his throws. You can have arm strength but with no velocity you throw floaters.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:16 PM    (permalink
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I am with the "Dalton is a solid QB" club.

That means above average.
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