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Old 03-08-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
Brady is going to be 36 years old. It's not necessarily going to be a freak injury that keeps him out from this point forward. The Pats have been extremely fortunate that Brady hasn't been hurt besides 2008. What if Brady breaks something and misses 6 games? Do we throw away a season if Brady potentially can be healthy for the playoffs? It comes back to the point that for a Mathieu and Lester that isn't a risk worth taking. Kyle Arrington isn't an awful NB, I'd rather have him than Mathieu and no Mallett.

Again I just don't see how having no backup plan for an event that has a 15-20% likelihood of happening is worth potentially a good slot CB 2-3 years from now.
Technically it's a 7.8% chance that Brady will miss a game (less if you include the playoffs), and all of those games were the result of one injury. On the other hand, there's a 100% chance that we're going to need to cover slot receivers in any given season. I think your mistake is in assuming that Ryan Mallett is going to be good without any evidence to suggest that thus far. What can you point to over the course of his career that indicates he'll be able to win as a starter in the NFL? If that was something he'd shown any ability to do, he'd be a highly coveted player right now. We haven't even been able to get a team like Arizona or Cleveland to throw us a draft pick for him to this point, even though they're starting guys like John Skelton.
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Old 03-08-2013, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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Also, regarding Arrington, would you have paid $4 million a season in a blind auction to keep him? What about $10 million for Talib?
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:05 PM    (permalink
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Technically it's a 7.8% chance that Brady will miss a game (less if you include the playoffs), and all of those games were the result of one injury. On the other hand, there's a 100% chance that we're going to need to cover slot receivers in any given season. I think your mistake is in assuming that Ryan Mallett is going to be good without any evidence to suggest that thus far. What can you point to over the course of his career that indicates he'll be able to win as a starter in the NFL? If that was something he'd shown any ability to do, he'd be a highly coveted player right now. We haven't even been able to get a team like Arizona or Cleveland to throw us a draft pick for him to this point, even though they're starting guys like John Skelton.
Brady is 36 years old. He's far more likely to get hurt now than he has been previously. Taking the games he's missed and dividing it by the total games he could have played doesn't really tell you anything.

It all really boils down to whether you believe in Mallett or not. I think we can give him time in the pocket, and in the event of a Brady injury he'd give us enough balance in terms of being able to challenge a team vertically to contend for a playoff spot. I really don't care if the Browns or the Cardinals are willing to send us a draft pick or not for him. We are not making the playoffs with a scrap heap QB, period. QB is the most important position in sports, and we have a guy sitting on our bench who has extremely good tools to be a QB, and we have pieces in place to give him all the help he needs. You're really underselling the possibility that Brady will get injured, and if you were a manager that is a contingency that you have to plan for.

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Also, regarding Arrington, would you have paid $4 million a season in a blind auction to keep him? What about $10 million for Talib?
No I just used Arrington as an example, I probably would have chosen another veteran who I thought would fit well and wouldn't demand a ton of attention on the open market. I think DJ Moore likely would have been my target as a nickel guy who can also play spot duty at safety as well. I also would have gone after Mikell instead of Woodson my offer probably would have been for similar money which would have obtained him.

There is still plenty out there on the CB market in the mock offseason as well. The need was hardly a reason to force your hand.

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Old 03-08-2013, 03:26 PM    (permalink
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Why would I believe in Mallett right now? He hasn't done anything to warrant it aside from having a strong arm, which is hardly an indicator of success at the NFL level. New England's blown out plenty of opponents over the past two seasons and had various opportunities to let Mallett show suitors that he's the next Schaub/Kolb/Flynn in terms of trade value, but they opted not to, which tells me he's not ready to see the field. Who knows if he will ever be? I think New England would love to get a three and six for Mallett right now.
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:31 PM    (permalink
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Why would I believe in Mallett right now? He hasn't done anything to warrant it aside from having a strong arm, which is hardly an indicator of success at the NFL level. New England's blown out plenty of opponents over the past two seasons and had various opportunities to let Mallett show suitors that he's the next Schaub/Kolb/Flynn in terms of trade value, but they opted not to, which tells me he's not ready to see the field. Who knows if he will ever be? I think New England would love to get a three and six for Mallett right now.
The hardly ever let a QB not named Brady do anything. It's hardly a reason to try and judge if someone can play on this level. Just like how BB doesn't value pass rushers in the first round, won't draft linebackers, will never leave the 3-4 defense, and other things I think you're reading too much into this.
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Old 03-14-2013, 08:28 AM    (permalink
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Here's the final haul in the forum mock; ended up adding Matt Cassel, Steve E. Smith, Dan Connolly, Richard Seymour, Manny Lawson, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the third wave. I'm very happy with the result overall, let me know what you think:



OFFENSE:

QB:
T. Brady - M. Cassel

RB: S. Ridley - S. Vereen - J. Demps - B. Bolden

WR: W. Welker - J. Hunter - J. Edelman - S. Smith - M. Slater

YT: R. Gronkowski - J. Ballard

FT: A. Hernandez - J. Stoneburner

LT: N. Solder - M. Zusevics

LG: L. Mankins

OC: R. Wendell - D. Connolly

RG: D. Thomas

RT: S. Vollmer - M. Cannon



DEFENSE:

LE: R. Ninkovich - S. Montgomery - M. Benard

DT: R. Seymour - A. Armstead

NT: V. Wilfork - K. Love

RE: C. Jones - J. Bequette - J. Francis

WB: J. Mayo - K. Maiava

MB: B. Spikes - D. Fletcher

SB: D. Hightower - M. Lawson

LC: D. Rodgers-Cromartie - W. Davis

FS: D. McCourty - T. Wilson

SS: C. Woodson - R. Lester - N. Ebner

SC: T. Mathieu - N. Robey

RC: A. Dennard - R. Dowling



SPECIAL TEAMS:

K: S. Gostkowski

P: Z. Mesko

LS: D. Aiken



DRAFT SELECTIONS:

1.29. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee*

2.57. (from Vikings through Texans) DE Sam Montgomery, Louisiana St.*

3.83. (from Vikings) CB Tyrann Mathieu, Louisiana St.*

3.91. CB Will Davis, Utah St.

6.190. (from Vikings) SS Robert Lester, Alabama

7.215. (from Jets) CB Nickell Robey, Southern California*

7.237. (from 49ers) TE Jake Stoneburner, Ohio St.
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Old 03-22-2013, 09:51 PM    (permalink
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I miss Rich Ohrnberger.

https://twitter.com/ohrnberger

He's so hilarious.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:37 AM    (permalink
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So I've been looking back at some of the Pats season last yea,r and I have to say Nate Solder is really an incredible player. He's the Pats best lineman by a fairly wide margin. His technique sometimes gets sloppy and he'll surrender a few ugly plays a year, but he really dominates on 95% of the snaps. His mobility is unreal, and he got a ton of clean 2nd level shots on linebackers and DB's that sprung big runs for us. He plays until the whistle which nobody besides him and Vollmer can really say. You constantly see him entering the play way down the field to make a block.

For example watch the 2 blocks he makes on the Gronk flip TD.



I definitely see what Scar and BB saw in this guy now. He's only going to get more fundamentally sound and stronger from this point on. Even now without great bulk he still gets a good 2nd surge and you see him move his guy in short yardage situations.


Now my point for bringing this all up is because I see a lot of the same qualities in Mr. Cooper from NC. I think our line with or without Vollmer is on the verge of being something special. However, I was really unsatisfied with our guard play last season, as Mankins and Connolly were our 2 worst players on the line last year. As we try and incorporate Vereen, Demps (fingers crossed), and whoever else more into our offense I think adding another killer athletic lineman could really start to wear down other teams over the course of the game. We already play at a fast tempo, and having lineman who can get square hits on linebackers and 2nd level defenders will really just compound that for us. Plus the potential for screen passes with Solder, Cooper, and Gronk out front is just unfair.

Some may call trading up for a guard a luxury for a team with several spots that need improvement, and few draft picks to do it, but picking interior lineman in the late first has typically been a good investment for teams. Cooper is a special athlete, and so far we've been successful recently going big for special athletes (Gronk, Jones, Solder, Hernandez, McCourty, and Hightower). With Cooper and Vollmer back we'd create an absolute advantage on the O-Line, and with a stable of young runningbacks and an old QB that is a good thing to have.

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Old 03-24-2013, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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Cool. That's a good analysis there cmarq. And now with the reported signing of Vollmer the line is looking pretty good, especially on the outside. While the OL isn't one of the top needs any more, in my opinion, if they could get a stud OG or even OC, then that would make the offense even better no matter who the WR's are.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see OL drafted early. Personally I'd rather they go all out on receivers, db's and pass rushers. But I couldn't argue with it if they did go OL.

One other thing comes to mind. The Pats still retain the rights to Waters. I have no idea if he's still interested in coming back to play for his home town team the Texans. But if he is, it could be a good time for the Pats to trade his rights and just get an extra pick in the draft for depth or for moving around the board.
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Old 03-24-2013, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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Vollmer rawr

4 year deal!
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Old 03-24-2013, 02:16 PM    (permalink
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Very good news on Vollmer.

Cmarq, great post and compelling argument. Normally I view OL as a high priority and would agree, but I feel a CB behind Talib and a WR that can beat press coverage is just too high a need. :/

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Old 03-25-2013, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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So Demps wants to do track until mid season now. Um. Yeah.
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Old 03-25-2013, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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Yeah goodbye Demps pretty much.
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Old 03-25-2013, 01:48 PM    (permalink
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Yeah goodbye Demps pretty much.
Yup. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots trying to get some of their money back since he's not fulfilling his part of the deal.
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Old 03-25-2013, 06:01 PM    (permalink
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Yup. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots trying to get some of their money back since he's not fulfilling his part of the deal.
I believe all of his guaranteed money has already been paid out, and his decision shouldn't retroactively affect his contract.
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:24 PM    (permalink
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Two rounds of the "Five Rounds in Five Days" mock are complete, and here's what proshoota25 and myself have done as New England thus far:

2.33. WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon St.

This pick was acquired from the Jacksonville Jaguars along with the #135 overall selection in exchange for #29. Wheaton is a versatile receiver with elite speed, explosion, and quickness who projects as a great fit in New England's offense. He can play inside and out, carry the ball on reverses, and potentially return kicks as well. He is fast enough to burn man coverage deep, runs impressive routes, can find soft spots in zones, and possesses outstanding body control down the sidelines as well as on back-shoulder throws. He gains a lot of yards after the catch, which would also be appealing to New England. Wheaton's resemblance to Mike Wallace has been discussed at length, but he is also reminiscent of a young Deion Branch.

2.55. CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Connecticut

We ended up including the #135 pick originally received in the trade down from #29 to #33 in order to move up from #59 to #55 and secure Blidi Wreh-Wilson. A high-character player whose intelligence and intangibles make him a perfect fit psychologically in New England, Bill Belichick was in attendance at Connecticut's pro day to see Wreh-Wilson blaze a low 4.3-second 40-yard dash. He is a physical, confident corner who can play both man and zone coverages, which should translate to a starting role as an outside cornerback at the next level. Aqib Talib's character and injury histories prevented the Patriots from signing him to a long-term contract extension, so Blidi could be groomed as a younger, cheaper long-term replacement at left cornerback.
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Old 04-05-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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I'd not be unhappy with those results come draft day, although I think I would prefer Carradine/WR/CB (probably D.Rogers for WR, although I'd be happy with Wheaton.)

Mind sharing your reasoning trading out w/ Carradine available?
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Old 04-05-2013, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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I'd not be unhappy with those results come draft day, although I think I would prefer Carradine/WR/CB (probably D.Rogers for WR, although I'd be happy with Wheaton.)

Mind sharing your reasoning trading out w/ Carradine available?
The last pick is in, maybe this will help explain passing on Carradine:

3.91. DE John Simon, Ohio St.

Was coached by Urban Meyer and Mike Vrabel with the Buckeyes; really stood on tape due to his versatility and tenacity. Was asked to play defensive tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker. Recorded 14.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks last season, and was productive in 2011 as well. At 6'2" and 257 pounds, has solid bulk for a pass rusher and could potentially play at up to 270 pounds if needed. Very good intangibles, plays with a lot of power, and can bend the edge. Looks pro-ready and could directly replace Jermaine Cunningham as a left end/under tackle 'tweener; Cunningham was on the field for 487 snaps last season.
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Old 04-06-2013, 08:23 AM    (permalink
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Matt, usually I think you're pretty great at these things, but that is a putrid draft class in my brutally honest opinion. Wheaton is probably a good fit, but his talent doesn't justify a second round pick. Especially considering the talent at receiver this year. Wilson is the lone decent pick of the bunch. He has good length and athleticism, but I can't help think that the failed Darius Butler experiment has soured BB on UConn players.

John Simon is just a terrible football player. That's pretty much it.
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Old 04-06-2013, 08:32 AM    (permalink
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I have to agree with Razor.

I like Wheaton but no way should he go that early.

And I'm just not seeing what everyone sees in Wilson. Just like Razor, I don't want a repeat of Darius Butler and until UConn produces one single quality NFL player, then I would rather avoid anyone from that school before the middle rounds.. (oh, and there's something about a football player named "bleedy" that just seems wrong).

Finally I'm not really impressed with Simon. He's slow, has one single pass rush move and from what I've seen he gets himself out of position a lot.. and I mean A LOT. Also, as has been mentioned on this board BB generally does not draft DE's that are only 6'2. If I had to choose between Simon as a third round pick and last year's third rounder Jake Bequette, I'll take Bequette.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:43 AM    (permalink
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I have to agree with the consensus so far. Wheaton is a solid vertical threat who can contribute on a number of routes, and if you got him with the 2nd or 3rd round pick I'd be more ok with it, but he reminds me a bit too much of Bernard Berrian to be willing to spend what is essentially the equivalent of a 1st round pick on him. He's not as explosive as a guy like Desean Jackson, and he's just a pitiful blocker which is a bit of a problem for a team that likes to run stretch plays as often as we do.

Considering Carradine was available there it's hard to argue that Wheaton is an equivalent talent.

In terms of Wilson I'm not a particularly big fan. He's not a good tackler, is inconsistent in man coverage, is really raw, and doesn't play up to his size. I greatly prefer Logan Ryan there since he reminds me a lot of Alfonzo Dennard. I think with a guy like Ryan you can mix him into the rotation earlier than you could a guy like Wilson, and he gives you insurance that Kyle Arrington will not be pushed to the outside in the event of an injury to a starter. Terrence Williams, Quinton Patton, or Kyle Long would both be solid selections there as well.

In terms of the third rounder it would really depend on if you have drafted a receiver yet. Dobson would be ok as a last resort if we hadn't drafted a receiver.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-07-2013, 08:07 AM    (permalink
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Late 2nd/early 3rd.
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Old 04-07-2013, 10:47 AM    (permalink
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My 2nd official mancrush of this draft class is Stedman Bailey.

I was really hell bent against taking anyone at WR who didn't have obvious vertical abilities since that is obviously what is most our most pressing need, but Bailey really made me a believer.

In our offense our SE needs to be able to do 4 things: block, be an occasional vertical threat, be able to use the copious amounts of space available to them to beat man coverage, and be an effective redzone target. Lloyd really only did one of those things marginally well last year, but Bailey is incredible at 2 of them, solid at one of them, and was a good vertical threat in college, but his abilities in the NFL in that area are a bit of an unknown.

I know his size and 40 time are a bit troubling, but Bailey is just excellent at using the space available to him, and positions his body to create open throwing lanes. His RAC ability is solid if unspectacular, and he brings some added toughness to a receiving core that needed it last year with Hernandez and Lloyd. His blocking is really solid for a college receiver. On most of Tavon's impressive open field plays you'll see Bailey throwing a good stalk block to give him a running lane. Also there was a kickoff return against Texas where Bailey unselfishly lateraled it to Austin, and then proceeded to pancake to defenders en route to a 60 yard return. His willingness to contribute even when the ball isn't in his hands is something that is essential in this offense because although our SE is technically our #1 receiver he might be the 4th target in the passing game.

He beats the jam really well at the LOS and catches passes with authority away from his body. He adjusts to and attacks the ball when it's in the air.

He also showed that he could go out and compete with top level CB's when he was able to beat Morris Claiborne a few times in man coverage in their matchup last season.

Simply stated he gets the David Givens stamp of approval. To me Givens was the ultimate complementary target. He contributed without the ball in his hands, was able to get vertical without amazing tools, was sneaky effective in the red zone, and saved his best for the biggest games. Bailey reminds me a lot of Givens, and I think he'd be an excellent 2nd or 3rd round pick.

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Old 04-07-2013, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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not exactly sure where or why the hate for wheaton is strong on this board. the draft is about taking a prospect and projecting that particular player into your system. Wheaton, when plugged into our offense, would be a stud. He runs very good routes, is explosive coming in and out of his breaks, and has been very productive already when asked to run similar routes that New England runs. He is a beast with YAC, which we know is HUGE. Not to mention, add in the fact that you could get more creative with him, sending him deep, setting up screens and designed plays to keep a defense off balance, and you have a stud in our system. he projects so much better into our system than a Justin Hunter. I love Robert Woods as well, but Wheaton is much more explosive and will give you that vertical threat.

Also, you cannot use the argument that a mistake in "a former UConn CB" is going make BB think twice about picking. IMO, Butler and Blidi are two completely different college players. I honestly feel Blidi is more pro ready than Butler ever was. Height difference is quite different 6'1 vs 5'10. Blidi can step right into our zone and be productive. It will take time, but eventually he will be able to match up man to man with coaching (he answered speed questions with basically a 4.39 at his pro day). We have Talib/Dennard for that now. If we used this same argument with UF wide receivers, then there's no way Percy Harvin would have been a great player, right? Every prospect is different, has different question marks.
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