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Old 04-09-2013, 09:34 AM    (permalink
Denver Bronco56
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But you can scheme around that, by minimizing the packages your MLB is covering...
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, but any scheme can do that. And that doesn't change the fact that you're masking a weakness. A duck is a duck, no matter where you put him. Anytime you have to mask a duck, you're talking about a player that can be upgraded.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:48 AM    (permalink
Denver Bronco56
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I agree if you have to mask someone then they can be upgraded, but if that person is a GREAT run stoper, and you have OLBs that can cover i have seen teams bring the OLB in on nickle situtations and take the MLB that cant cover out...

I mean not many MLBs are great cover guys
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Old 04-09-2013, 02:57 PM    (permalink
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College production gets you noticed by the pros but you have left out one important item in the process which is film work, which is seperate from production.

Film work sets up teams initial boards, the post season All Star games then add to their information base and some prospect rise or fall on those results.
Then comes the Combine/Pro Days which measures the athletic ability of each prospect, these results are then taken back to the film room to see how a prospect actually uses his skills in games and a new draft board is established and finalized.

In this process, college production gets left further and further behind but film work gets continually upgraded as more and more is known about each prospect. People tend to forget one important aspect of grading prospects, probably around 95% of pro players were workout warriors at the combine or their Pro Days, people only remember the few workout warriors who failed, they forget about the huge impact workout warriors had in the NFL.

In the final analysis, if a prospect with huge college production, fails to impress the pros with his known athletic ability, he is going to fall big time on draft boards, possibly even a round or two. Sure, there is perhaps 5% of NFL players who fall into non workout warriors group, but few GM's will put their jobs on the line drafting one very high with only a 5% chance of success.
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Old 04-09-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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But do you agree that certain drills/combine workouts are over valued.

I just find it hard to take the 40 into account, when having played football and ran track. it is far more important for explosion and relevant when looking at say the 10 and 20 yard dashes...because very few football plays other than punt and kick returns ever are that long of distance
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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Of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history (the all time greats),

90+% of them had 17 or more sacks in their college careers.
60+% of them had 28 or more sacks in their college careers.


That should tell you something about the importance of college production, at least for pass rushers.
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:14 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history (the all time greats),

90+% of them had 17 or more sacks in their college careers.
60+% of them had 28 or more sacks in their college careers.


That should tell you something about the importance of college production, at least for pass rushers.
But what percentage didn't run (40 yard dash times) in the top 1/3 of their combine?
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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But what percentage didn't run (40 yard dash times) in the top 1/3 of their combine?
Exactly!!!
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Denver Bronco56 View Post
But do you agree that certain drills/combine workouts are over valued.

I just find it hard to take the 40 into account, when having played football and ran track. it is far more important for explosion and relevant when looking at say the 10 and 20 yard dashes...because very few football plays other than punt and kick returns ever are that long of distance
The Combine's main mission is to find out how good of an athlete a prospect is, so a team can take that information back to the film room to see how he uses those skills.

Without this information, it is extremely difficult to completely gage a prospect's talent on film work alone, since in college they rarely play against another pro prospect, and even when they do, the college system they play against may not resemble a pro style in any shape or form.
Unless you know how good an athlete they are, even game film is not all that useful.

You say you ran track, if so, you should know it takes a special athlete with a really quick start, to run a 40 yard dash with any kind of success at that distance. Yes, the 10 and 20 yard times are also an extremely important indicator but that doesn't lesson the 40 yard importance.

I think the NFL has put a lot of thought into what is done at the Combine, after all, it costs them millions of dollars to do it, and I'm sure they have had tremendous imput from around the league on the the different tests that are performed there. They know their sport and what it takes to be successful in the NFL and they don't all go to the Combine to waste their time. If 40 yard times weren't that important, do you really think you'd see every scout, GM, and coach who attends the combine, using their stop watch on every athlete who runs the 40. I think it is draftniks who tend to way under value the combine in general and the 40 in particular.

Remember, that only linemen are never asked to run 40 yards during a game and even they sometimes find themselves in a position where they must do it.

You ran track, how many feet does a tenth of a second equate to, I've see reports that it can be as much as 3 feet and when you watch the film work where they compare up to 3 runners doing the 40 at the combine, you can see it doesn't take much to create separation for every tenth of a second one is slower that the other.
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:59 PM    (permalink
Denver Bronco56
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I def. agree they didnt just throw some random tests together, and i think what happens behind closed doors of all the teams is much different than what some guy on ESPN says..

BUT... i think the 10 and 20 are atleast under valued in the media and in peoples mind, because if you place player A who ran a faster 10 and 20, but player B was able to pick up speed at say 30 yards. What good does the faster 40 do if you are rarely ever getting that far. I guess i think the value and emphasis on the 40 over shorter more realistic football distances is my issue.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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But what percentage didn't run (40 yard dash times) in the top 1/3 of their combine?
Exactly my point.

I would put production in college as the #1 criteria in my evaluation, and then only consider players who met a baseline level of produciton (such as 17 college sacks for pass rushers), and after that separate them based on athleticism and intangibles (attitude, work ethic etc).
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:22 PM    (permalink
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Exactly my point.

I would put production in college as the #1 criteria in my evaluation, and then only consider players who met a baseline level of produciton (such as 17 college sacks for pass rushers), and after that separate them based on athleticism and intangibles (attitude, work ethic etc).
Just curious, if say a player that had 20 TFLs but like 8 sacks, would he not get consideration unless his measurables were amazing?

Or are you saying you on the lines of if you dont hit 17 for example then you are not on our draft board type thing?

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Old 04-10-2013, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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Just curious, if say a player that had 20 TFLs but like 8 sacks, would he not get consideration unless his measurables were amazing?

Or are you saying you on the lines of if you dont hit 17 for example then you are not on our draft board type thing?
I simply would not consider any player with less than 17 sacks as a pass rusher. I'd take them off my board.

The only exception I would make, as you mentioned, is if they had a lot of TFL in college. In some conferences, like the Big10, offenses run the ball far more often than they pass the ball. Due to this, opposing defensive linemen often do not have many opportunities to rush the passer and instead have to play the run, which, if they penetrate the backfield, results in a TFL. In those scenarios, the TFL is just as strong an indicator of pass rush talent (because they have to beat the OT/OG to get into the backfield on the run play) as a sack would be in a more pass-happy conference.

A prime example of this would be JJ Watt. He played in the Big10 in college, and didn't have more than a few sacks. However, his TFL numbers were stellar.

If they don't have at least 17 sacks, I'd want to see them put up at least, say, 30 TFL during their time in college.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:22 PM    (permalink
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How much would you factor size?

exe

Elvis Dumervil in college was AMAZING, but he fell do to his size
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Old 04-10-2013, 08:12 PM    (permalink
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Exactly my point.

I would put production in college as the #1 criteria in my evaluation, and then only consider players who met a baseline level of produciton (such as 17 college sacks for pass rushers), and after that separate them based on athleticism and intangibles (attitude, work ethic etc).
This is totally absurd, many players declare as juniors or even red shirted sophs, they may have been behind another player in their freshman and sophomore years and only got to play as a starter for one college season, especially if they play for a major college.

In your system, you would eliminate many, many NFL star players. Those stats above are not being interpreted correctly because in the last 2 seasons, the # of underclassmen declaring has increased substantially, meaning, more and more prospects will fail to meet those standards as the years go by.

Overall production might have made some sense when in the past, most players came into the draft as seniors but in today's football, they lose all meaning.
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Old 04-11-2013, 01:46 AM    (permalink
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It's fair to note that the biggest draft busts are those who have had good measurables.
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:43 PM    (permalink
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Of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history (the all time greats),

90+% of them had 17 or more sacks in their college careers.
60+% of them had 28 or more sacks in their college careers.


That should tell you something about the importance of college production, at least for pass rushers.
What happened 20,30 + years ago is often irrelevant to drafting today. Look at the pass rushers coming out the last few years. Not only JPP, but Jones,Matthews and Watt are other good examples of guys who have shown the ability to get to the QB in the NFL, even though they didn't in college.
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Old 04-12-2013, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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What happened 20,30 + years ago is often irrelevant to drafting today. Look at the pass rushers coming out the last few years. Not only JPP, but Jones,Matthews and Watt are other good examples of guys who have shown the ability to get to the QB in the NFL, even though they didn't in college.
It's too early to tell with some of these newer guys like Jason Pierre Paul. He's literally had ONE good year in the NFL so far. He could easily be one of those one-year-wonders that litter NFL history.

And regarding JJ Watt, I already explained that I would consider him a top prospect as a DT or 4-3 DE because of his high number of TFL in college playing a run-first conference like the Big Ten.

And Clay Matthews basically played 4-3 OLB in college, so it would be impossible to evaluate him fully as a pass rusher coming out of college. That kind of player you are just rolling the dice on, because he didn't even play as a pass rusher in college. Maybe I miss out on Clay Matthews every once in a while, but I'm OK with that. There aren't many players like Matthews who played one position in college and then become star pass rushers in the NFL. The only other one I can think of is Kevin Greene from Auburn who became a star 3-4 OLB in Pittsburgh.

I stand by my system. If you only draft players with 17 or more sacks in college, AND give extra weight to players with lots of TFL or 28+ sacks, then you will dramatically increase your chances of hitting on the pick. Every once in a great while you might miss out on someone, but that will be rare, and I'd rather miss out on good player 1 out of 10 times than draft a bust 7 out of 10 times.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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What about the size issue though, would you have a range of height and weight that you would want people to be for certain positions?
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Old 04-12-2013, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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What about the size issue though, would you have a range of height and weight that you would want people to be for certain positions?
The ideal height for a pass rusher is somewhere in the 6'2"-6'6" range. The ideal weight is somewhere from 260lbs to 280lbs, depending on position, as 3-4 OLBs generally need to be lighter than 4-3 DEs.

Having said that, I would not discriminate against shorter players, but I would give an edge to the taller player given similar levels of production. Elvis Dumervil and James Harrison are shorter (no more than 6'0" both) but highly productive players. Historically, there were dominant players who were no taller than 6'0" like John Randle. However, the majority of successful pass rushers throughout NFl history have typically been 6'2" or taller with long arms to get off OT blocks. Height and arm length are important for pass rushers.

Reggie White is absolutely the physical ideal for a defensive lineman. 6'4", 280-290lbs. Massive strength but also ran a 4.5 40 at that size.

I would not discriminate against a smaller player if he had a ton of college production (like a Dwight Freeney, with his tons of college sacks/TFL, or Elvis Dumervil, with tons of college sacks/TFL).

Production matters to me more than size and measureables. If I had to choose between a 6'4" 280lb guy with 18 sacks in college career and a 6'0" 260lb guy with 35 sacks in his college career, I'd probably give the edge to the 6'0" guy. But again, if the levels of production are similar - i.e. both had 20-30 sacks in college, I'll take the taller guy with longer arms.

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Old 04-12-2013, 11:53 AM    (permalink
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It's too early to tell with some of these newer guys like Jason Pierre Paul. He's literally had ONE good year in the NFL so far. He could easily be one of those one-year-wonders that litter NFL history.

And regarding JJ Watt, I already explained that I would consider him a top prospect as a DT or 4-3 DE because of his high number of TFL in college playing a run-first conference like the Big Ten.

And Clay Matthews basically played 4-3 OLB in college, so it would be impossible to evaluate him fully as a pass rusher coming out of college. That kind of player you are just rolling the dice on, because he didn't even play as a pass rusher in college. Maybe I miss out on Clay Matthews every once in a while, but I'm OK with that. There aren't many players like Matthews who played one position in college and then become star pass rushers in the NFL. The only other one I can think of is Kevin Greene from Auburn who became a star 3-4 OLB in Pittsburgh.

I stand by my system. If you only draft players with 17 or more sacks in college, AND give extra weight to players with lots of TFL or 28+ sacks, then you will dramatically increase your chances of hitting on the pick. Every once in a great while you might miss out on someone, but that will be rare, and I'd rather miss out on good player 1 out of 10 times than draft a bust 7 out of 10 times.
Argues that sacks are overrated in one thread, in the next thread he wouldn't pick someone unless they have x number of sacks. AcheTen logic at its finest.

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Old 04-12-2013, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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" Reggie White is absolutely the physical ideal for a defensive lineman. 6'4", 280-290lbs. Massive strength but also ran a 4.5 40 at that size. "

Where do people get this from??
Reggie White ran a 4.6 at his first Eagles TC when he weighed at the time......just under 270#. Back when he was just a 43 DE.
He's still the prototype for his position even as he got bigger and stronger, but people talk like he came into the NFL weighing 285-290#.
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Old 04-12-2013, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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Argues that stats are overrated in one thread, in the next thread he wouldn't pick someone unless they have x number of sacks. AcheTen logic at its finest.
Where did I argue that stats are overrated?

Can you point me to this post that I made instead of just putting words into my mouth or quoting me out of context?
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Old 04-12-2013, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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Where did I argue that stats are overrated?

Can you point me to this post that I made instead of just putting words into my mouth or quoting me out of context?
I meant to say sacks, and it was in the context of your idiotic Brandon Graham-JPP argument.

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Old 04-12-2013, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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I meant to say sacks, and it was in the context of your idiotic Brandon Graham-JPP argument.
And nothing that I said about either Graham or Pierre Paul disputes or contradicts my stance on the topic being discussed in this thread.
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