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Old 04-15-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
findthedr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- YPA is a more important stats than yards and completion percentage.
no it is not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
You really don't know that?
I know your an idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- Calling me an idiot for not being impressed with a 54-attempt, 260-yard performance? I don't care if he threw for 20 TDs, that's not good.
your an idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- I am not comparing Geno Smith to Tyler Wilson. I don't think any of these QBs are very good. I am simply evaluating Geno Smith. When I cited the other QB's YPA's in comparison I was essentially saying "he has such better stats than these weak QB prospects... but not YPA."
YPA is a worthless stat.

this site analyzed the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011.

Quote:
The correlation coefficient is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables on a scale from -1 to 1. Essentially, if two variables move in the same direction, their correlation coefficient them will be close to 1. If two variables move with each other but in opposite directions (say, the temperature outside and the amount of your heating bill), the CC will be closer to -1. If the two variables have no relationship at all, the CC will be close to zero.


an intelligent person would be able to see that YPA is not strongly correlated with winning. It is not an important statistic.

They go on to say, "On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins." They also attempt regression analysis, but the R value was ~.28 (i..e which shows their modeling is not a good fit and predictor of winning).

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- I am not worried about the result during the 5-game losing streak. I am worried about how he performed in those games - poorly, regardless of what the D did.
have you actually watched the games?! that would be a good start. IF you dont have the time, Eric Stoner has put together every pass from the Texas Tech and Kansas State game, which reduces each game to under 12 minutes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
In a post where he calls YPA a meaningless stat... then proceeds to say a YPA near 5 is acceptable...
Let me simplify things for you. Ultimately coaches want QBs who can lead their team to victory. That is simply by scoring more points than the opponent.

A Qb can directly do that by throwing touchdowns, or indirectly do that by giving the offense an oppurtunity to score points. You may ask how they can indirectly do that, and the answer is by moving the chains.

A QB who has a 50% completion percentage means that he will likely complete 1 out of 2 chances to throw. Given 3 chances to throw, the QB sometimes completes 2 out of 3 and sometimes only 1 out of 3. That qb would require 10 Yards per completion to get a new set of downs (assuming they get no help from the running game). Most QBs dont get an oppurtunity to throw all 4 downs.

A QB who has a 67% completion percentage completes 2 of every 3 attempts on average. Thus, that qb would need only a 5 Yards per completion to get a new set of downs when given 3 oppurtunities to pass. For a college career, Geno completed 2 of every 3 passes on average.

Thus, the importance of YPA is tied with completion%. A QB with a higer completion% does not require as high a YPA. On the otherhand, a QB with a low completion% would need a high YPA to move the chains. A QB who completes 67% of his passes with minimum 5YPC would need a minimum 3.35 YPA to convert 1st downs. A QB who completes 50% of his passes with minimum 10YPC would need a minimum 5YPA to complete 1st downs.

common sense stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Points to the defense as an excuse...
Football is a team sport. You arent going to win games when your defense is giving up more points than you are scoring. A defense that is giving up 50 points per game (~7 touchdowns) would require a historic effort to overcome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
And cites a college QB rating over 100 as a good barometer of performance.
you mislead. You stated that smith was inconsistent. QB rating was an example of his consistency. Further, based on footballperspectives data, QB rating was the QB statistic that had the closest correlation with winning.

Here are the career college QB ratings of various QBs:
Cam Newton: 178.2* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Bradford: 175.6
Tebow: 170.8
Andrew Luck: 162.8
RG3: 158.9
Weeden: 157.7
Colt McCoy: 155.0
Sanchez: 153.9* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Geno Smith: 153.5
EJ Manuel: 150.7
matt Barkley: 148.7
Russell Wilson: 147.2
Kirk Cousins: 146.6
Tyler Wilson: 144.0
Collin Kapernick: 142.5
Landry Jones: 141.5
Andy Dalton: 140.7
Clausen: 137.8
Flacco: 137.4
Ryan Tannehil: 134.2
Stafford: 133.3
Blaine Gabbert: 132.6
Ryan Nassib: 132.5
Mike Glennon: 132.3
Christian Ponder: 132.1
Matt Ryan: 126.3
Freeman: 124.7
Jake Locker: 119.0

Last edited by findthedr : 04-15-2013 at 10:50 PM.
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