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Old 04-16-2013, 12:51 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by NMfootball85 View Post
QB'S Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, Bray will all be busts.. They are not accurate enough for the NFL Nasssib Wilson and Glennon only averaged 60% completion for their starting Carreer Bray only averaged 58.5 with the two top WR's in college football Bray and Wilson on loosing teams... QB's do worse or the same in the NFL not Magically better.. Geno Manual 66% completion Barkley Jones 63%.. Gabbert Tannehill Weedon Locker Freeman all under 60% and are all struggling..
It's fine to question a prospect's accuracy, but it's not as cut and dry as saying player X has only thrown for 58% completions in college therefore he won't be a good pro QB.

All these guys may or may not bust, but it's more about their lack of consistency, clutch play or for some lack of top shelf physical tools that I question. Most of these guys have demonstrated the ability to throw an accurate football on all types of passes.
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Old 04-16-2013, 01:29 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
It's fine to question a prospect's accuracy, but it's not as cut and dry as saying player X has only thrown for 58% completions in college therefore he won't be a good pro QB.

All these guys may or may not bust, but it's more about their lack of consistency, clutch play or for some lack of top shelf physical tools that I question. Most of these guys have demonstrated the ability to throw an accurate football on all types of passes.
This guy is what J-Mike is for the Packers. His general agenda is to prop up Landry Jones, but he can't do it directly.

Stats, statsy, and more skewed college stats. He found a way to put Landry up with Luck at one point. Some how Landry is better than Bradford even though Bradford significantly out performed him in the same offense.
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Old 04-16-2013, 01:52 AM    (permalink
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Based on the "Trashed Hotel Room" thread posted on this same page, I'm going to have to go with Cordarelle Patterson as the #1 bust potential prospect in this class. Not only can he not run routes properly, but if the Hotel Room story is true, then he's truly a grade A moron as well.

But my list looks something like this right now:

1.) Cordarelle Patterson (aforementioned stuff)
2.) Dion Jordan (many of the reasons listed already in this thread)
3.) Ezekiel Ansah (athlete with no clue how to play, older prospect, no production in college)
4.) Barkevious Mingo (highly overrated in college, couldn't produce on a stacked team)

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Old 04-16-2013, 01:57 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
It's fine to question a prospect's accuracy, but it's not as cut and dry as saying player X has only thrown for 58% completions in college therefore he won't be a good pro QB.

All these guys may or may not bust, but it's more about their lack of consistency, clutch play or for some lack of top shelf physical tools that I question. Most of these guys have demonstrated the ability to throw an accurate football on all types of passes.
There is a baseline level of college accuracy that is simply a prerequisite for being an NFL quarterback, however.

It's similar to the baseline level of athleticism required to play other positions. It's like the 40 time for DBs. you can have all the instincts, smarts, and ball skills in the world, but if you run slower than a 4.8 40, your chances of being an NFL starting DB are almost zero. You don't have to run a 4.4 40, but you can't be slower than 4.8 or so.

For quarterbacks, 60% completion rating in college is like the 4.7/4.8 40 time that is the bare minimum for NFL starting DB competency.

If you look at the history of the NFL, quarterbacks with sub-60% completion ratings in college basically NEVER turn into competent NFL starters. It's extremely rare.

I would never, ever draft a quarterback higher than the 5th round if he had a sub-60% completion rating in college.

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Old 04-16-2013, 02:26 AM    (permalink
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I might be crazy but I don't see Dion Jordan as a DE. I see him as 4-3 WLB. Just think of him in a Tampa 2 as a WLB. With his size and speed. Dropping into zone with his arms and 6 foot 7 frame. The guy can run down anyone in the run game. Just needs to be covered up a little bit.

I think Jordan is closer to being a 90 plus tackles 5 sacks and 3 picks a year WLB than a 10 plus sack DE right now.
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Old 04-16-2013, 02:30 AM    (permalink
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When I see Jordan I think of Julian Peterson
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Old 04-16-2013, 02:49 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
There is a baseline level of college accuracy that is simply a prerequisite for being an NFL quarterback, however.

It's similar to the baseline level of athleticism required to play other positions. It's like the 40 time for DBs. you can have all the instincts, smarts, and ball skills in the world, but if you run slower than a 4.8 40, your chances of being an NFL starting DB are almost zero. You don't have to run a 4.4 40, but you can't be slower than 4.8 or so.

For quarterbacks, 60% completion rating in college is like the 4.7/4.8 40 time that is the bare minimum for NFL starting DB competency.

If you look at the history of the NFL, quarterbacks with sub-60% completion ratings in college basically NEVER turn into competent NFL starters. It's extremely rare.

I would never, ever draft a quarterback higher than the 5th round if he had a sub-60% completion rating in college.

Matt Stafford was a career 57% at Georgia. Jay Cutler was a career 57% passer at Vanderbilt. Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC and was only 60% for his career.
Eli Manning was a career 61% passer at Ole Miss.
Peyton Manning was a 60.2% passer his final season at Tennessee.
Russell Wilson never completed 60% of his passes until he transferred to Wisconsin.

Just because you don't throw for 75% in college doesn't mean you're not a great QB prospect.
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Old 04-16-2013, 03:09 AM    (permalink
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I think Margus Hunt will barely play in the NFL. He was terrible in the Senior Bowl and then blew up the Combine... he's an all star in shorts, complete garbage in pads. At 26 by the time he starts figuring out how to put all of his potential to use, he'll either be out of the league or start getting long in the teeth.
I absolutely agree. Hunt has not gotten a whole lot better during his time in college. Athletically he is a 1st round pick...but he reminds me of NBA teams drafting a 7 footer high because "you can't coach that size." He simply is not a very good football player. I think he is a 5th-6th rounder myself; honestly his ceiling is really high but I think the chance of him ever "getting it" and realizing his potential is extremely low. But someone is going to draft him in the top 50 picks and 3 years from now he will be part of a list of crappy players that ex-GM drafted.
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Old 04-16-2013, 03:14 AM    (permalink
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I might be crazy but I don't see Dion Jordan as a DE. I see him as 4-3 WLB. Just think of him in a Tampa 2 as a WLB. With his size and speed. Dropping into zone with his arms and 6 foot 7 frame. The guy can run down anyone in the run game. Just needs to be covered up a little bit.

I think Jordan is closer to being a 90 plus tackles 5 sacks and 3 picks a year WLB than a 10 plus sack DE right now.
I couldn't agree more. And the way TE's are tearing up the NFL these days, that ability to cover big men will be a drastically underrated skill. 5 years from now I could definitely see Jordan being a player that people talk about revolutionizing his position.
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Old 04-16-2013, 04:31 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
It's fine to question a prospect's accuracy, but it's not as cut and dry as saying player X has only thrown for 58% completions in college therefore he won't be a good pro QB.

All these guys may or may not bust, but it's more about their lack of consistency, clutch play or for some lack of top shelf physical tools that I question. Most of these guys have demonstrated the ability to throw an accurate football on all types of passes.
IMO you cant teach accuracy and it wont improve.. The NFl is harder than college.. Tell me one guy who couldn't throw 60% in college but threw 65% in the nfL.. Look at all of the NFL teams.. besides two of them they all had QB's with 62-68% completion rate.. If QBs are good and have all the attributes and all the tools and ability to throw accurate passes then they should be able to complete passes and gain yards and score Touchdowns and win games.. and if they are good they will complete a higher percentage of passes.. ability = performance = stats.
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Old 04-16-2013, 07:13 AM    (permalink
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IMO you cant teach accuracy and it wont improve.. The NFl is harder than college.. Tell me one guy who couldn't throw 60% in college but threw 65% in the nfL.. Look at all of the NFL teams.. besides two of them they all had QB's with 62-68% completion rate.. If QBs are good and have all the attributes and all the tools and ability to throw accurate passes then they should be able to complete passes and gain yards and score Touchdowns and win games.. and if they are good they will complete a higher percentage of passes.. ability = performance = stats.

All I'm saying is you can't look at a prospect's completion rate in college without watching his games and just assume he's not an accurate passer.
For someone to say they would never draft a college QB in the 1st round who completed less than 60% of his passes on principle is flat out wrong.
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Old 04-16-2013, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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IMO you cant teach accuracy and it wont improve.. The NFl is harder than college.. Tell me one guy who couldn't throw 60% in college but threw 65% in the nfL.. Look at all of the NFL teams.. besides two of them they all had QB's with 62-68% completion rate.. If QBs are good and have all the attributes and all the tools and ability to throw accurate passes then they should be able to complete passes and gain yards and score Touchdowns and win games.. and if they are good they will complete a higher percentage of passes.. ability = performance = stats.
I thought Jake Locker could be taught accuracy - it looked down to his footwork and it was clear he's a hard worker, so I thought he'd get it done. Still having problems - so I think it can be improved - but if it's the chief area of concern then tough sledding.
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Old 04-16-2013, 09:48 AM    (permalink
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Matt Stafford was a career 57% at Georgia. Jay Cutler was a career 57% passer at Vanderbilt. Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC and was only 60% for his career.
Eli Manning was a career 61% passer at Ole Miss.
Peyton Manning was a 60.2% passer his final season at Tennessee.
Russell Wilson never completed 60% of his passes until he transferred to Wisconsin.

Just because you don't throw for 75% in college doesn't mean you're not a great QB prospect.
Eli Manning , Payton Manning and Matt Ryan are all way over 60% they are the exception not the rule now Eli this year was not over 60% and NY didn't make the playoffs.

Only 2-12 play off teams were lower than 60%
10 out of the top 13 ranked teams in completion percentage where playoff teams.. (ranged from 68.6-62.3) The only team who wasnt over 60% was baltimore who had 59.7% and 3800 yards and one of the best defenses.. The other exception was IND who had 4300 yards. 7 out of the 12 play off teams had over 4000 yards passing. . I think those two factors are big in success can you throw for over 4000 yards and score a bunch of TD's or over 62%.. This is just my opinion ..
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Old 04-16-2013, 09:56 AM    (permalink
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All I'm saying is you can't look at a prospect's completion rate in college without watching his games and just assume he's not an accurate passer.
For someone to say they would never draft a college QB in the 1st round who completed less than 60% of his passes on principle is flat out wrong.
I agree that you cant go by completion Rate alone.. you should look at YPA as well as air yards. You should break down percent of passes 0-5 yards and 5-10 15 plus and 25 plus yards if a QB throws mostly longer passes then they may be better than their rate implies.. Geno at 70% has the least number of air yards the most shorter passes and only a 40% completion in passes over 15 yards.. He racked up over 4200 yards though..
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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This guy is what J-Mike is for the Packers. His general agenda is to prop up Landry Jones, but he can't do it directly.

Stats, statsy, and more skewed college stats. He found a way to put Landry up with Luck at one point. Some how Landry is better than Bradford even though Bradford significantly out performed him in the same offense.
LOL Yes I am a local fan of Jones and defend him because but i am completely dumb founded at how a guy can complete 63% of his 2183 passes for 16467 yards for 123 Td's and a 40-11 win loss record.. setting school, conference, and national records.. and be treated like hes garbage ranked lower than guys with losing records who didnt do crap... You may not like stats, but they are performance they are making throws completing passes, moving the chains scoring TD's and winning games the whole reason you play football.. and every one has an equal opportunity to put up good ones.. Landry isnt some timmy chang who was small and went to some small school who had no competition.. He is 6'4 and played for a bcs conference.. a crappy player doesn't achieve what he did.. The Lewin Career index has had some pretty good success at predicting success in the NFL and it has Jones Ranked first..
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:47 AM    (permalink
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1) Mike Glennon. Awful pocket presence and his accuracy won't make it in the NFL.
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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No one said Landry Jones is going to bust or is a crappy player. I don't think anyone will be surprised if he develops into a solid NFL starter. But I do think he has issues with pressure in the pocket and is scared of getting hit. That's just the vibe I get from watching him.

Jones should have come out last year. He'd be the Cleveland Browns starting QB.
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Old 04-16-2013, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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A player like Tavon Austin cannot be found later in the draft. That's insane.

Austin is the best slot receiver prospect since slots have become a thing. That's where he'll play in the pros...

I don't see him as a bust candidate for any reason other than someone projecting he won't stay healthy which I think is unwise for 2 reasons:

A) Has been a durable player throughout his career (0 missed practices at WVU in 4 years with a million touches).

B) He's extremely difficult to get a clean shot on. He's slippery and creative with his moves. Someone was criticizing him saying he never got hurt because "he was never touched." Yeah. That's his game - lol. And he gets out of bounds and down when nothing's there. He's smart.
Plus, there's a difference between being a bust and not living up to your draft slot. While I would agree that Austin will be overdrafted in relating to where his production will be, especially compared a few years down the road with other WRs in this class drafted in the next few rounds, but I don't think he'll be unproductive. When I think bust, I think non-starter or out of the league in 3-4 years (Troy Williamson, Rashaun Woods), which I don't see happening with Austin.
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Old 04-16-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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LOL Yes I am a local fan of Jones and defend him because but i am completely dumb founded at how a guy can complete 63% of his 2183 passes for 16467 yards for 123 Td's and a 40-11 win loss record.. setting school, conference, and national records.. and be treated like hes garbage ranked lower than guys with losing records who didnt do crap... You may not like stats, but they are performance they are making throws completing passes, moving the chains scoring TD's and winning games the whole reason you play football.. and every one has an equal opportunity to put up good ones.. Landry isnt some timmy chang who was small and went to some small school who had no competition.. He is 6'4 and played for a bcs conference.. a crappy player doesn't achieve what he did.. The Lewin Career index has had some pretty good success at predicting success in the NFL and it has Jones Ranked first..
Graham Harrell's college stats were out of this world...but all that production didn't make him a draftable player. Jones does have a ton of experience, and that helps. But scouts can't ignore what they see on tape. And they are not always right. But they simply cannot go on production alone. If they did the SEC would certainly not rule the draft like it does.
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Old 04-16-2013, 09:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Matt Stafford was a career 57% at Georgia. Jay Cutler was a career 57% passer at Vanderbilt. Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC and was only 60% for his career.
Eli Manning was a career 61% passer at Ole Miss.
Peyton Manning was a 60.2% passer his final season at Tennessee.
Russell Wilson never completed 60% of his passes until he transferred to Wisconsin.

Just because you don't throw for 75% in college doesn't mean you're not a great QB prospect.
Did i say 75%? I said 60% in college should be the baseline.

I think Jay Cutler is a marginal starter in the NFL and if I were a GM I wouldnt' waste a first round pick on him now or when he came out as a prospect.

Eli Manning college completion %: 60.8
Peyton Manning college completion %: 62.5
Matt Ryan college completion %: 60.0
Russell Wilson college completion %: 60.9

Looks to me like all of the good QBs in the NFL meet this 60% threshold. It's not an arbitrary number: history has proven that 60% is the magical barrier, and the higher above 60%, the better, but a QB has to at least be at 60% for his career. And the vast majority of these good QBs threw for 64%+ in their junior and/or senior years as well.


Please find me an elite NFL QB who completed less than 60% of his passes in his college career. I don't think you can. And no, Jay Cutler is not elite. And no, Matthew Stafford is not an elite QB yet as well either. It remains to be seen, but one good year throwing for 5000 yards to the best WR in the NFL is not enough for me to say that he's an elite QB.

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Old 04-17-2013, 12:37 AM    (permalink
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Joe Montana, Brett Favre, & Dan Marino were sub 60%

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Old 04-17-2013, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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Joe Montana, Brett Favre, & Dan Marino were sub 60%
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Old 04-17-2013, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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Did i say 75%? I said 60% in college should be the baseline.

I think Jay Cutler is a marginal starter in the NFL and if I were a GM I wouldnt' waste a first round pick on him now or when he came out as a prospect.

Eli Manning college completion %: 60.8
Peyton Manning college completion %: 62.5
Matt Ryan college completion %: 60.0
Russell Wilson college completion %: 60.9

Looks to me like all of the good QBs in the NFL meet this 60% threshold. It's not an arbitrary number: history has proven that 60% is the magical barrier, and the higher above 60%, the better, but a QB has to at least be at 60% for his career. And the vast majority of these good QBs threw for 64%+ in their junior and/or senior years as well.


Please find me an elite NFL QB who completed less than 60% of his passes in his college career. I don't think you can. And no, Jay Cutler is not elite. And no, Matthew Stafford is not an elite QB yet as well either. It remains to be seen, but one good year throwing for 5000 yards to the best WR in the NFL is not enough for me to say that he's an elite QB.

By any measure Jay Cutler was a first round talent and deserved to be selected among the top 32 picks. He's so far beyond a 'marginal' starter.
My dude Colt McCoy is a marginal starter. Christian Ponder is a marginal starter.

And to be accurate, you said you wouldn't draft ANY sub 60% passer in college. I'm the one who made the distinction between career versus single season completion percentage.

Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC.

That 60% threshold isn't totally arbitrary, but it's not really much different than 59% or 58%.
There's not one statistic you can isolate as a definitive predictor for NFL success.

Scouting prospects is both analytical and intuitive. Most of us watch prospects with a blend of both methods. I'm just less of a numbers guy for most prospects, beyond basic measurements of their overall production in college and general athleticism.

When anyone argues 'x stat' is the holy grail for a specific position and is a failsafe predictor of NFL success, it rubs me the wrong way.
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Old 04-17-2013, 01:11 AM    (permalink
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Sharrif Floyd. Great athlete but I don't see him living up to the hype the media is giving him. He'll be a starter, don't see the Pro Bowl level type player though....
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Old 04-17-2013, 01:17 AM    (permalink
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Joe Montana, Brett Favre, & Dan Marino were sub 60%
Find me stats from their college careers. Post me a link to this.
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