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Old 04-17-2013, 02:26 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
By any measure Jay Cutler was a first round talent and deserved to be selected among the top 32 picks. He's so far beyond a 'marginal' starter.
My dude Colt McCoy is a marginal starter. Christian Ponder is a marginal starter.
Jay Cutler was the 27th ranked QB in DVOA last year according to footballoutsiders.com. He was the 20th ranked QB in ESPN's QBR rating. He was really bad last year and he hasn't been all that good at all the past three years in Chicago. If it wasn't for their elite, top-3 defense in 2010, Cutler would not have played a single playoff game in his career at any point so far.

And to be accurate, you said you wouldn't draft ANY sub 60% passer in college. I'm the one who made the distinction between career versus single season completion percentage.
No, I would not draft a sub 60% passer if he was a sub 60% passer in his entire college career. Players grow and develop. A QB could easily pass for less than 60% in one of his earlier years and then develop into a 64% passer later and even out his career completion %.

You may have misunderstood me when I said that, but I'm telling you right now that my opinion is that a QB should be a 60% passer over the course of his college career. I don't fixate on individual seasons.

Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC.

That 60% threshold isn't totally arbitrary, but it's not really much different than 59% or 58%.
There's not one statistic you can isolate as a definitive predictor for NFL success.
Actually, there is. If you look at the history of QBs, the vast majority of the successful ones pass for more than 60% completion in college over the course of their careers.

Many QBs who *do* pass for > 60% completion in college don't go onto success in the NFL, but it's almost *guaranteed* that you won't succeed in the NFL if you are a sub 60% completion passer.

The bar is set at 60% for success. History bears this out. You may not be successful even if you have that, but you *surely* won't be successful if you *don't* have it.

Scouting prospects is both analytical and intuitive. Most of us watch prospects with a blend of both methods. I'm just less of a numbers guy for most prospects, beyond basic measurements of their overall production in college and general athleticism.

When anyone argues 'x stat' is the holy grail for a specific position and is a failsafe predictor of NFL success, it rubs me the wrong way.
There are definitely intuitive aspects of evaluating prospects, and subjective analysis comes into play as well.

However, there are statistical and objective measurements that should serve as baselines for certain positions.

Would you ever take a chance on a cornerback who ran a 4.8 or slower 40? The chances of that cornerback being successful in the NFL is practically zero, even if he had elite intangibles, elite work ethic, elite tackling ability, and elite size. Speed is just such a critical component of the CB play that there is a certain prerequisite of having *some* speed. Obviously you do not need 4.4 40 speed, but you can't be slower than around 4.8, even if you play Cover-2.

Similarly, QBs need to have at least a baseline accuracy just to compete in the NFL. It's like 40 time for CBs. There are many other factors that go into success at the position beyond the completion percentage (factors that explain why Colt McCoy, for example, sucks), but 60% completion percentage should be your baseline before you begin considering anything else. If he can't complete passes with a modicum of accuracy in college when passing windows are wide open, then how will he ever do that in the NFL? He won't.
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