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Old 04-18-2013, 12:34 AM    (permalink
NFL_Draft_Bites
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Default Advantageous to Be 2nd Rounder

Texas A&M Pass Rusher Damontre Moore is 20 Years Old. In my opinion, his Representatives have every incentive to attempt to make him a Second Round Selection, despite being considered a surefire First Rounder just a few months ago. The same mindset could be applied to other prospects, in particular Keenan Allen or David Amerson.

Scenario 1:
With the 11th Overall Pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Damontre Mooore is Selected.

Paralleling Dontari Poe's deal from 2012.

Rookie Contract: 4 Years 11.93 Million (Fully Guaranteed)

Damontre Moore posts Double digit sack seasons in X Teams 3-4 Defense in 2015 & 2016.

Team X exercises 5th Year Option (Average Salary of top 3-25 NFL Linebackers). Damontre earns 6.0 Million in 2017.

Despite attempts to reach an extension, the team seems opposed. After another Double Digit campaign in 2017, Team X Franchise Tags Moore for 2018- Salary 10.5 Million (Estimated 120% higher than 2012 FT Number for Linebackers).

Damontre's Agent appeals arguing Moore is a Defensive End but the independent arbiter sides with the team.

Looking for a longterm deal, the team is opposed & the Franchise Tag option still exists for the 2019 Season at 120% of the previous years salary (12.6 Million).

Having been a First Round Pick, Damontre Moore's salary breakdown is as follows: 7 Years 41.03 Million

2013 (21): 2.258 Million
2014 (22): 2.696 Million
2015 (23): 3.167 Million
2016 (24): 3.809 Million
2017 (25): 6.0 Million
2018 (26): 10.5 Million
2019 (27): 12.6 Million

Moore tests UFA & signs a longterm deal with another club. Over the course of his career, Moore will earn almost $ 90 million on the field.

Scenario 2:

Damontre Moore is drafted 45th Overall- Stock falls for various reasons.

Rookie Contract: 4 Years 4.67 Million

Pleasant surprise, Moore is the same premier pass rusher as Scenario 1. After 4 Years, a 24 Year old Edge Rusher is an Unrestricted Free Agent after back-to-back 10+ Sack campaigns.

The Club places the Franchise Tag on Damontre & he will earn 10.25 Million in 2017. As Damontre's Agent, you schedule a sit down with the General Manager.

Agent: 'Damontre was a pleasant surprise. He's 24 Years Old & one of the leagues premier pass rushers. I view the Franchise Tag as a placeholder. We'd like a longterm commitment.'

GM: 'Damontre has been tremendous for us & don't forget he'll be 25 just days after next year starts. But you do know NFL Clubs are permitted to use the Franchise Tag for Two consecutive years. So hypothetically, we could pay Damontre 10.25 Million in 2017 & 12.3 Million in 2018'.

Agent: I'm sure that presents your Club w/ Salary Cap issues. Damontre is committed to helping you build a winner. Let's do a 4 Year 40.0 Million deal (18.0 M Guaranteed). We'll backload it to provide you with Cap Space so you keep your job!

GM: That sounds like reasonable terms.

Breakdown: Affords the GM cap room in 2017 & locks up Damontre Moore through 2020. Will again be a UFA at 28. Per the agreement, the club relinquishes right to apply Franchise Tag when deal expires. By backloading the deal, you approach the team after Year 3 (Damontre's 27) & discuss another extension. The window on players careers is not indefinite. Opportunities to land lucrative contracts is the crux of the business.

Larry Fitzgerald created this Model. Fitz secured 3 major paydays by age 28. The 30 barrier has become near absolute. The league is getting younger. The backend of rosters are filled by UDFAs rather than veterans. It's different for marquee players. On Defense, players that impact 3rd Down will be highly paid in the pass first league. But the window expires quickly. Look at the 2013 UFAs that signed lucrative deals. The major commonality- They were all in their 20s.

The degree to which it is advantageous to be a 2nd Rounder is tangible. In scenario 1, the team has leverage with the 5th Year Option & potential to control the player for two additional years on the Franchise Tag.

In reality, the team would only apply the Franchise Tag once. This means the player is controlled for 6 Years & becomes a UFA at 27. Hitting the open market, you're going to seek a 5 Year deal & this is the players loan opportunity to cash-in on the FA Market. It's how he'll set up his family for generations & how as an Agent you'll earn the big bucks.

By being a First Rounder, securing Two Major paydays beyond the Rookie contract becomes an arduous task for an Agent. For this reason, we will see prospects under the CBA structure attempt to decrease stock & be 2nd Round Selections.

For this reason, the CBA Structure & Rookie Wage Scale is Broken. It's inherently flawed. I return to Larry Fitzgerald because he's the Model- Earned 3 MAJOR paydays prior to 28, including an over 100 Million deal last year. Currently attempting to emulate this model are Calvin Johnson, Percy Harvin & Darrelle Revis, albeit at different stages.

Expect more Positive Drugs Tests, Missed Meetings, Slow 40s, Bad Workouts, & Miserable Private Interviews. It's financially prudent to fall into Round 2. The difference financially between hypothetically 25 & 40 isn't really overwhelming. And ultimately, if you can sign a Larry Fitzgerald or Mario Williams type final contract- It's easier if you're a 2nd Round Pick.

The opposition will argue, how does X player know he'll be Stud in the league? The answer- He doesn't. But as an Agent, you are permitted to earn 3% of players total compensation. You're being incentivized to land major 2nd paydays, because you're not going to earn your living off rookie contracts on the Wage Scale. And if you want to earn the maximum amount of money, it's by negotiating a players Rookie Deal & 2 Extensions.
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