Draft Countdown Forums

Go Back   Draft Countdown Forums > Draft Countdown Forums > 2014 NFL Draft Forum

2014 NFL Draft Forum Discuss the 2014 NFL Draft

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-15-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
findthedr
Rookie
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 135
Reputation: 108942
findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- YPA is a more important stats than yards and completion percentage.
no it is not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
You really don't know that?
I know your an idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- Calling me an idiot for not being impressed with a 54-attempt, 260-yard performance? I don't care if he threw for 20 TDs, that's not good.
your an idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- I am not comparing Geno Smith to Tyler Wilson. I don't think any of these QBs are very good. I am simply evaluating Geno Smith. When I cited the other QB's YPA's in comparison I was essentially saying "he has such better stats than these weak QB prospects... but not YPA."
YPA is a worthless stat.

this site analyzed the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011.

Quote:
The correlation coefficient is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables on a scale from -1 to 1. Essentially, if two variables move in the same direction, their correlation coefficient them will be close to 1. If two variables move with each other but in opposite directions (say, the temperature outside and the amount of your heating bill), the CC will be closer to -1. If the two variables have no relationship at all, the CC will be close to zero.


an intelligent person would be able to see that YPA is not strongly correlated with winning. It is not an important statistic.

They go on to say, "On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins." They also attempt regression analysis, but the R value was ~.28 (i..e which shows their modeling is not a good fit and predictor of winning).

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
- I am not worried about the result during the 5-game losing streak. I am worried about how he performed in those games - poorly, regardless of what the D did.
have you actually watched the games?! that would be a good start. IF you dont have the time, Eric Stoner has put together every pass from the Texas Tech and Kansas State game, which reduces each game to under 12 minutes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
In a post where he calls YPA a meaningless stat... then proceeds to say a YPA near 5 is acceptable...
Let me simplify things for you. Ultimately coaches want QBs who can lead their team to victory. That is simply by scoring more points than the opponent.

A Qb can directly do that by throwing touchdowns, or indirectly do that by giving the offense an oppurtunity to score points. You may ask how they can indirectly do that, and the answer is by moving the chains.

A QB who has a 50% completion percentage means that he will likely complete 1 out of 2 chances to throw. Given 3 chances to throw, the QB sometimes completes 2 out of 3 and sometimes only 1 out of 3. That qb would require 10 Yards per completion to get a new set of downs (assuming they get no help from the running game). Most QBs dont get an oppurtunity to throw all 4 downs.

A QB who has a 67% completion percentage completes 2 of every 3 attempts on average. Thus, that qb would need only a 5 Yards per completion to get a new set of downs when given 3 oppurtunities to pass. For a college career, Geno completed 2 of every 3 passes on average.

Thus, the importance of YPA is tied with completion%. A QB with a higer completion% does not require as high a YPA. On the otherhand, a QB with a low completion% would need a high YPA to move the chains. A QB who completes 67% of his passes with minimum 5YPC would need a minimum 3.35 YPA to convert 1st downs. A QB who completes 50% of his passes with minimum 10YPC would need a minimum 5YPA to complete 1st downs.

common sense stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Points to the defense as an excuse...
Football is a team sport. You arent going to win games when your defense is giving up more points than you are scoring. A defense that is giving up 50 points per game (~7 touchdowns) would require a historic effort to overcome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
And cites a college QB rating over 100 as a good barometer of performance.
you mislead. You stated that smith was inconsistent. QB rating was an example of his consistency. Further, based on footballperspectives data, QB rating was the QB statistic that had the closest correlation with winning.

Here are the career college QB ratings of various QBs:
Cam Newton: 178.2* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Bradford: 175.6
Tebow: 170.8
Andrew Luck: 162.8
RG3: 158.9
Weeden: 157.7
Colt McCoy: 155.0
Sanchez: 153.9* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Geno Smith: 153.5
EJ Manuel: 150.7
matt Barkley: 148.7
Russell Wilson: 147.2
Kirk Cousins: 146.6
Tyler Wilson: 144.0
Collin Kapernick: 142.5
Landry Jones: 141.5
Andy Dalton: 140.7
Clausen: 137.8
Flacco: 137.4
Ryan Tannehil: 134.2
Stafford: 133.3
Blaine Gabbert: 132.6
Ryan Nassib: 132.5
Mike Glennon: 132.3
Christian Ponder: 132.1
Matt Ryan: 126.3
Freeman: 124.7
Jake Locker: 119.0

Last edited by findthedr : 04-15-2013 at 10:50 PM.
findthedr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2013, 04:07 PM    (permalink
gpngc
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MetLife, Clink x4, MetLife
Posts: 12,915
Reputation: 1712539
gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
no it is not.



I know your an idiot.
Yes YPA is a more important stat than comp. % or total yards. We'll have to agree to disagree. Or you can just attempt and fail to call me names.



Quote:
your an idiot.
And again.


Quote:
YPA is a worthless stat.
At this point in the argument we could agree to disagree.

Quote:


an intelligent person would be able to see that YPA is not strongly correlated with winning. It is not an important statistic.

They go on to say, "On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins." They also attempt regression analysis, but the R value was ~.28 (i..e which shows their modeling is not a good fit and predictor of winning).
ANY/A and NY/A are YPA stats, just more advanced because they account for picks and TDs as well...

lol

and regular YPA is still above both comp. % and passing yards so you just proved that it's more important than both of those stats...

....

Quote:
Thus, the importance of YPA is tied with completion%. A QB with a higer completion% does not require as high a YPA. On the otherhand, a QB with a low completion% would need a high YPA to move the chains. A QB who completes 67% of his passes with minimum 5YPC would need a minimum 3.35 YPA to convert 1st downs. A QB who completes 50% of his passes with minimum 10YPC would need a minimum 5YPA to complete 1st downs.

common sense stuff.
No, it is not. It takes into account incompletions. That's why it is a better and more tellilng stat than comp. %.


Quote:
you mislead. You stated that smith was inconsistent. QB rating was an example of his consistency. Further, based on footballperspectives data, QB rating was the QB statistic that had the closest correlation with winning.
No, I don't. The difference between 100 QB rating and 200 QB rating in college is a huge gap. An 100 QB rating in college is not indicative of even an average performance.

Going from a 100 to a 200 does not speak to his consistency. 100 is not good.

Quote:
Here are the career college QB ratings of various QBs:
Cam Newton: 178.2* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Bradford: 175.6
Tebow: 170.8
Andrew Luck: 162.8
RG3: 158.9
Weeden: 157.7
Colt McCoy: 155.0
Sanchez: 153.9* (only 1 full yr starting thus data skewed)
Geno Smith: 153.5
EJ Manuel: 150.7
matt Barkley: 148.7
Russell Wilson: 147.2
Kirk Cousins: 146.6
Tyler Wilson: 144.0
Collin Kapernick: 142.5
Landry Jones: 141.5
Andy Dalton: 140.7
Clausen: 137.8
Flacco: 137.4
Ryan Tannehil: 134.2
Stafford: 133.3
Blaine Gabbert: 132.6
Ryan Nassib: 132.5
Mike Glennon: 132.3
Christian Ponder: 132.1
Matt Ryan: 126.3
Freeman: 124.7
Jake Locker: 119.0
College QB rating is a completely worthless stat. You just proved it with this list.

YPA isn't.

My point is that Geno Smith's YPA is not as glowing as his total numbers and that looking at his numbers you can see inconsistency from game to game.

You disagreed with me with your point being that YPA isn't that important and that his ability to always keep his college QB rating over 100 shows that he is indeed consistent.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I care more about YPA than yards, comp. % and college QB rating.
gpngc is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2013, 04:30 PM    (permalink
findthedr
Rookie
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 135
Reputation: 108942
findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.findthedr is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

the difference between your post and mine is that you are stating your OPINION (that YPA is a meaningful stat) as FACT, and I am providing facts with corroborating links.

saying "agree to disagree" is just a cop-out since you are unable or unwilling to justify your opinions to the readers on this site.

Finally, trying to argue that YPA is somehow more meaningful than completion% or total yards is foolish. They are all weakly correlated with winning. Its like arguing whether cat poop stinks worse than dog poop or human poop....its stupid because they all stink.

Finally corellation does not infer causation.

A QB who has a high YPA might be getting those yards (and skewing his stats) from "garbage time" when his team is way behind and playing against a prevent defense. Another QB might be excellent throwing between the 20s, but poor in the red-zone (example: Kyle Orton).

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Or you can just attempt and fail to call me names.
if it looks like an idiot and posts like an idiot, it likely is an idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
College QB rating is a completely worthless stat. You just proved it with this list
how so?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
YPA isn't.
how so?

Last edited by findthedr : 04-16-2013 at 04:34 PM.
findthedr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2013, 08:20 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,103
Reputation: 143066
Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
We'll have to agree to disagree. I care more about YPA than yards, comp. % and college QB rating.
Okay, that's fine and dandy. I'd venture to say that pretty much no one agrees with that opinion. You are acting as if this is some sort of commonly accepted indicator of success when in fact it's hardly ever even discussed.
__________________
Kaepernick is this years pat white. Thin, gimmick offense and doesn't possess an nfl arm. The ncaa constantly regurgitates clones of past players and amazingly enough, tricks some people into thinking they're better than their cloned half. Kaepernick was a complete waste of a senior bowl qb spot. A better qb will come from the east/west shrine or whatever they're calling it now...count on it

- Genius
Black Bolt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2013, 09:14 PM    (permalink
TACKLE
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 10,915
Reputation: 4603369
TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.TACKLE is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I don't think I've been as outspoken on here as I'd like to be about my support for Geno.

I really think a lot of people are gonna look back and wonder why there was so much negativity surrounding Geno Smith. He's just a very well-rounded prospect who gets checkmarks in just about every area across the board. Intelligence, work ethic, ability to command an offense, arm strength, athletic ability, ball placement, pocket movement, ability to throw with pressure in his face or in a muddy pocket. Solid check marks in all those areas. Reminds me a lot of Matt Ryan as a prospect and a lot of the criticisms too except more athletic, has a better, more proven accuracy and turned the ball over far less than Ryan did coming out. Remember, a lot of people thought Ryan wasn't a value at #3 and would fall to the Ravens at 8. A lot of the justification for Ryan was his "intangibles" and "work ethic" yet people don't emphasized that with Geno but I'm not going to open that can of worms. People keep talking about how inferior this QB class (Geno) is to the top QB's last yet Geno's pretty clearly a more developed pocket passer than RG3 was coming out and a much better decision maker thank Tannehill and a more accurate passer, especially over the middle of the field.

I feel like a lot of the knocks on him are 'narratives knocks' ie. team record, stats, system, surrounding talent etc. and less focused knocks and evaluations of how his skillset projects. It's funny that people kind of took off and ran with the Cosell 'late eyes' thing as if they'd seen it all along. He does have a tendency to need to see his WR open up before he throws it but some people were acting like they knew it all along as some kind of validation for actively disliking a prospect whom they didn't have sound reasoning. The same people who knew nothing about the progressions of the offense or the reads he was asked to make who were saying he can't read defenses. That's not to say he's without flaws or areas that he needs to improve, but the good far outweighs bad.

It's really strange the way he's been talked about the media and draft community this year. So much negativity and dismissive attitudes about him as a legit prospect but little of it is rooted in specific reasoning or criticisms about how his game projects. It's hard to say why. Maybe he doesn't throw pretty spiral all the time, maybe he rubs people the wrong way because he's not particularly media-friendly. I'm not sure. Like I said at the beginning, I really think people are gonna look back and wonder why they were so down on him. If you're factoring in positional value, which when you're talking about QB's is silly not to, I really believe Geno can and likely will be the best player from the 2013 draft class.
__________________
TACKLE is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
hockey619
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,152
Reputation: 309042
hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.hockey619 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TACKLE View Post
It's funny that people kind of took off and ran with the Cosell 'late eyes' thing as if they'd seen it all along.
cossell is about a month behind me and few others who saw and said the same thing, which really grinds my gears. post is from 2/28

Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey619 View Post
Hes never read a defense (as evidenced by how often he forced the ball) and hes slow moving from read to read on the rare occassion he looks for a second option at all. Guys like that usually have serious issues at the next level where time is very limited. he has arm talent but teaching those parts of the mental game to someone is very difficult and takes time for the vast majority of QBs if they get it at all.
Geno needs time to sit and learn. If he does, then i think he can definitely play. he has talent, but he is sloppy with some things (footwork mostly, and its definitely not too far off could be fixed fairly quickly) and is really far behind on the mental side of the game, which is why the comparison to matt ryan is way off.

Ryan made his own checks at the line and read coverage post snap at BC. Geno has not proven that he can, he had a lot of one read looks and frequently forced the ball. Maybe thats just what he was coached to do (execute the call, strictly, just throw to who hes told to), but that would make little sense considering all reports suggest he was a film junkie.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby View Post
Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
hockey619 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 02:50 PM    (permalink
SuperPacker
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: awkward
Posts: 11,013
Reputation: 2237213
SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

chip already on the shoulder

Quote:
Eugene Geno Smith ‏@GenoSmith_12 22m
Just want to thank all those so called "experts" who say I can't be an NFL QB. Thursday will be a special day but the work has only begun
__________________



RIP themaninblack
SuperPacker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 03:02 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12,113
Reputation: 287181
Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TACKLE View Post
I don't think I've been as outspoken on here as I'd like to be about my support for Geno.

I really think a lot of people are gonna look back and wonder why there was so much negativity surrounding Geno Smith. He's just a very well-rounded prospect who gets checkmarks in just about every area across the board. Intelligence, work ethic, ability to command an offense, arm strength, athletic ability, ball placement, pocket movement, ability to throw with pressure in his face or in a muddy pocket. Solid check marks in all those areas. Reminds me a lot of Matt Ryan as a prospect and a lot of the criticisms too except more athletic, has a better, more proven accuracy and turned the ball over far less than Ryan did coming out. Remember, a lot of people thought Ryan wasn't a value at #3 and would fall to the Ravens at 8. A lot of the justification for Ryan was his "intangibles" and "work ethic" yet people don't emphasized that with Geno but I'm not going to open that can of worms. People keep talking about how inferior this QB class (Geno) is to the top QB's last yet Geno's pretty clearly a more developed pocket passer than RG3 was coming out and a much better decision maker thank Tannehill and a more accurate passer, especially over the middle of the field.

I feel like a lot of the knocks on him are 'narratives knocks' ie. team record, stats, system, surrounding talent etc. and less focused knocks and evaluations of how his skillset projects. It's funny that people kind of took off and ran with the Cosell 'late eyes' thing as if they'd seen it all along. He does have a tendency to need to see his WR open up before he throws it but some people were acting like they knew it all along as some kind of validation for actively disliking a prospect whom they didn't have sound reasoning. The same people who knew nothing about the progressions of the offense or the reads he was asked to make who were saying he can't read defenses. That's not to say he's without flaws or areas that he needs to improve, but the good far outweighs bad.

It's really strange the way he's been talked about the media and draft community this year. So much negativity and dismissive attitudes about him as a legit prospect but little of it is rooted in specific reasoning or criticisms about how his game projects. It's hard to say why. Maybe he doesn't throw pretty spiral all the time, maybe he rubs people the wrong way because he's not particularly media-friendly. I'm not sure. Like I said at the beginning, I really think people are gonna look back and wonder why they were so down on him. If you're factoring in positional value, which when you're talking about QB's is silly not to, I really believe Geno can and likely will be the best player from the 2013 draft class.
Or they are going to look back and realize a lot of the criticism was valid, namely, very poor pocket presence when under pressure, very slow in picking up his secondary receivers when under pressure, and just takes too long to release the ball when under pressure. He also has questionable leadership abilities. Yes, he has a solid arm, has decent accuracy and can hit his open receiver when everything is going well but the above suggests he will struggle at the next level.
Of course, it will all be decided on the field, not here in our analysis.
__________________
And proud of it!!!
Iamcanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,433
Reputation: 1183720
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

ALL QBs read coverages 'post snap'.(you must have meant presnap). Geno's not a robot. That's not even something you can see watching a QB play. You can only gauge the results of the play based on the defensive alignment. Either a QB made the right read or he didn't.

I don't buy that Geno is way behind on the mental aspects of the game. Unless you have intimate knowledge of WVU's playbook and what was asked of Geno by his OC, this is all speculation. If you watch the Mountaineers play enough, you see instances where Geno is calling out protections and where pressure is coming from.

I think Geno is being downgraded because he deliberately locked onto Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, and I still contend that was the smart thing to do on 90% of most pass plays.

EDIT: I'm going to blast some posters on here if Geno shows early on that he's a legit NFL QB.lol
__________________

Last edited by FUNBUNCHER : 04-23-2013 at 09:04 PM.
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12,113
Reputation: 287181
Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TACKLE

It's funny that people kind of took off and ran with the Cosell 'late eyes' thing as if they'd seen it all along.
I was a big supporter of Smith after watching his opening games of the college season, but as the season progressed, you could begin to see he really struggled when teams put pressure on him and the 'late eyes' was definitely there for everybody to see along with some other criticisms(see above).
__________________
And proud of it!!!
Iamcanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 03:11 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12,113
Reputation: 287181
Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
ALL QBs read coverages 'post snap'.(you must have meant presnap). Geno's not a robot. That's not even something you can see watching a QB play. You can only gauge the results of the play based on the defensive alignment. Either a QB made the right read or he didn't.

I don't buy that Geno is way behind on the mental aspects of the game. Unless you have intimate knowledge of WVU's playbook and what was asked of Geno by his OC, this is all speculation. If you watch the Mountaineers play enough, you see instances where Geno is calling out protections and where pressure is coming from.

I think Geno is being downgraded because he deliberated locked onto Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, and I still contend that was the smart thing to do on 90% of most pass plays.

EDIT: I'm going to blast some posters on here if Geno shows early on that he's a legit NFL QB.lol
As long as you and Tackle are willing to admit your analysis stunk if Smith is a failure, I have no problem admitting my error if I was wrong. After all, scouts and GM's get it wrong quite often, so there is room for errors in this hobby as long as you can take the criticism.
__________________
And proud of it!!!
Iamcanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 04:15 PM    (permalink
RaiderNation
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Northern California/ Bay Area
Posts: 13,729
Reputation: 488728
RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RaiderNation is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I still have no idea where to put Geno, thinking 13 to NYJ
__________________


Welcome to the Silver & Mack
"Just Win Baby"
- Al Davis
@SirStackAlot707

RaiderNation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 04:41 PM    (permalink
Unbiased
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,896
Reputation: 230879
Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Unbiased is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I hate how seriously people take the "prediction" aspect of the draft. If you predict Geno will be a bust, you guys root against him in his career and will jump all over him when he makes mistakes. No one;s going to care if you were right or wrong about him. Just enjoy the ride.
__________________
Unbiased is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2013, 06:13 PM    (permalink
y.f.s.
Rookie
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 445
Reputation: 547290
y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.y.f.s. is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cudders View Post
Regarding Genoís pocket presence, itís similar to the rest of his game. Itís inconsistent. Even against Texas, which is a tape Iíve seen levied against him often as an unmitigated disaster, I can point out a handful of snaps where he showcases some strong presence.



At 0:10, Texas loops the DE behind the DT and lurks a LB at the LOS. The DE beats the OG inside and pushes the pocket. The DT drives the OT back toward Genoís spot. Geno steps into the throw and completes 3rd & 3 with a crashing LB draped across his chest.

At 0:31, a Texas blitz blows the right side of the line up. As Geno hits the top of his drop, three Longhorns have a shot at him. A lineman and a linebacker right in his face. He slides to the left, looks downfield, slips through a crease, and comes close to converting a 3rd & 9, leaving his kicker a manageable field goal instead of an obvious punting situation.

At 1:33, Texas crosses their DTís and gets great punch again. Their DEís also run the arc and clip the hip of the pocket. Geno steps into a collapsing line, takes some contact, leads the throw from coverage, and converts a 4th & 4 that ends up going for a touchdown after the catch.

At 7:00, a Texas DE comes clean inside the ten. His RB loops under him to engage, but Geno climbs the pocket and drops the ball in a good location and gets the go-ahead touchdown.

Those are four encouraging signs of a workable pocket presence in a game where the Mountaineer offensive line was just manhandled at the point. Their interior was abused. Their tackles didnít help much. There are some other minor pluses in there, but those are the predominant highlights. Granted, thereís some lowlights against Texas, too. So evaluating an inconsistent talent becomes an issue of context.

WHY does Geno look poor under pressure? From the few games Iíve seen, I donít think itís a chronic case of tentativeness. To me, the root of Genoís problem lies in his transitional footwork. Heís a habitual bouncer. Bouncing leaves room for an unbalanced and inconsistent base. In muddied pockets, unbalanced and inconsistent bases are bad news. It protracts a quarterbackís re-set. When the pocket is collapsing, or a rusher is pushing the quarterbackís spot, he needs to either get off of it or get rid of it. It takes a bouncer longer to do both. And I believe his struggles as a frontside-to-backside passer can sometimes exacerbate the appearance of pocket presence issues. (Which is another issue altogether. Being deficient at a skill doesnít suggest a permanent handicap per se. We canít evaluate Geno through the same prism as Andrew Luck. There are numerous explanations for his current struggles and some of them are quite justifiable. Thatís the line of questioning that teams must attack during the pre-draft interview process.)

But Geno possesses natural, quick feet. Heís capable of short steps and speed drops. It starts from the base up. Itís correctable, sure, but itís a frustrating fix that requires a large dose of patience and an unwavering work ethic. It might take thousands of reps to iron out the worst of it. Look at Aaron Rodgers. Heís got the truest feet in the NFL. He didnít have that at Cal. He worked to get it. I think there are similarities between the two as prospects. What we didnít know about Rodgers was his drive to be the absolute best and burning desire to prove his doubters wrong. Does Geno have that same makeup within him?

In the meantime, there are bridges that a coach or coordinator can build to ease the transition. I want to see Geno in a zone-read offense. (Note: Will Geno fight his coaching staff on the integration of zone-read concepts? Thatís another question that must be answered.) Not one centered on his gifts as a runner, but one that uses zone-read looks as a wrinkle of their passing game. That can slow the rush and allow Geno some time through progressions.

He is a bit of a project, but heís got an intriguing blend of arm talent, athleticism, and reported intangibles. If those intangibles shine through, and a team uncovers his full range of limitations and feels confident their step-by-step program can knock down those barriers and unlock his potential, then heís worth a (high) first-round pick.
Winner winner.
__________________

Sig by TACKLE

Quote:
Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR
y.f.s. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 09:34 PM    (permalink
SuperPacker
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: awkward
Posts: 11,013
Reputation: 2237213
SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

for geno :(

__________________



RIP themaninblack
SuperPacker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 09:50 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12,113
Reputation: 287181
Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post

EDIT: I'm going to blast some posters on here if Geno shows early on that he's a legit NFL QB.lol
Well, your off to a bad start.
__________________
And proud of it!!!
Iamcanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 10:41 PM    (permalink
J-Mike88
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Titletown USA
Posts: 9,661
Reputation: 1435771
J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.J-Mike88 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Well, your off to a bad start.
At this point in time, nobody can judge the career of the guy of course.
But the anti-Geno folks here surely are one-up on the Geno-lovers.... and there were plenty of both in this thread.
J-Mike88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 10:44 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,433
Reputation: 1183720
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

THought there was NO CHANCE Geno didn't go in the first 32 picks. I'm still stunned over that.

I'm not going to poop on Manuel to prop up Smith, but right now I'm very confused.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 10:46 PM    (permalink
SuperPacker
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: awkward
Posts: 11,013
Reputation: 2237213
SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SuperPacker is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Geno is gonna make all these idiots pay for passing on him.
__________________



RIP themaninblack
SuperPacker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 10:55 PM    (permalink
gpngc
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MetLife, Clink x4, MetLife
Posts: 12,915
Reputation: 1712539
gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I saw this coming a mile away.

He's a very flawed prospect. It's pretty obvious.

When Jacksonville was showing interest - it was always about No. 33.
gpngc is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 11:01 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,433
Reputation: 1183720
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I saw this coming a mile away.

He's a very flawed prospect. It's pretty obvious.

When Jacksonville was showing interest - it was always about No. 33.
Except that every 'flaw' Smith has, Manuel is (much) worse.
Nothing about Manuel's game is superior to Geno's. I don't get it.

I can almost see how a team could convince themselves a prospect like Nassib/Barkley were worth taking over Smith. Not with EJ.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 11:03 PM    (permalink
gpngc
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MetLife, Clink x4, MetLife
Posts: 12,915
Reputation: 1712539
gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I was never in this thread to compare Geno Smith to the other QBs. That's not substance based. I just wanted to evaluate the prospect.

Jason LaConfora's article a few pages back was a JOKE and it's a JOKE that he was allowed to publish something as fact when it was 100% baseless speculation.
gpngc is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 11:09 PM    (permalink
WCH
Pro Bowler
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,772
Reputation: 3237824
WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I'm convinced that the "slow eyes" thing is the reason Geno is free falling. You have to process information very quickly to make it as an NFL quarterback. That's a mission critical trait.
WCH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 11:09 PM    (permalink
metafour
Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,178
Reputation: 73557
metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.metafour is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
I can almost see how a team could convince themselves a prospect like Nassib/Barkley were worth taking over Smith. Not with EJ.
Really? Manuel is the only one of the bunch that projects prototypical QB tools across the board. He is bigger than both Barkley and Nassib and has a better arm than both. I dont think its hard to see why Buffalo decided to dream on Manuel, who is big, athletic, has a good arm, has been productive, and who seems like a genuinely high character kid.
metafour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2013, 11:10 PM    (permalink
gpngc
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MetLife, Clink x4, MetLife
Posts: 12,915
Reputation: 1712539
gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.gpngc is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

WOW. CBS DELETED THIS ARTICLE. Wow.

Here's the rotoworld blurb on it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
Lol, top five? This thing is as clear as mud.

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports "there isn't any doubt about it" that West Virginia QB Geno Smith will be a top-five pick in the draft.
La Canfora adds that there's a great possibility Smith goes in the top three, and he specifically names the Jaguars at No. 2 overall. "Smith is, without a doubt, the top quarterback prospect in this draft," wrote La Canfora. "Period. No debate. ... He is the only sure-fire quarterback prospect in the top half of the first round." Although some around the league are calling the Jaguars' Geno interest a smokescreen, La Canfora believes the real smokescreen is their perceived "rallying" behind Blaine Gabbert. Despite Pro Football Weekly's scouting report, teams reportedly have zero concerns about Smith's character or work ethic.
Then here's my post in response - again, the article is now deleted.

Quote:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/2...ed-in-top-five

Read the whole thing, it's pretty funny. It reads like someone here wrote it. Just a long-winded opinion with reasoning based on his assumptions and personal views about Smith.

Quote:
Quote:
And, for the record, teams that have done their work on Smith have no concerns about character or work ethic. It's rather ludicrous in this situation
This is the only worthwhile nugget in the whole thing, and that's where Rotoworld drew their conclusion. But the truth is JLC knows what he knows and that's it. My only reason to doubt him is that he has a history of being wrong. And "teams that have done their work on Smith" could mean two teams...
Casserly and Narwocki's sources said otherwise.

Quote:
Quote:
The Browns (6), Cardinals (7), Bills (8) and Jets (9) are both dealing with band-aid quarterbacks but don't have a long-term commitment to any passer. I'm sorry, people, that looks like a ton of demand and the most limited of supply -- one quarterback worthy of being taken in the top 10. Bluff or not, that's more than enough of a backdrop to make at least one team feel like it might have to trade up to guarantee it gets Smith.

How silly will all of these teams look if they pass on a chance to take him? It's just not happening.
This line of thinking "well they all need QBs so obviously ONE of them is bound to take him!" assumes that one of these teams actually wants to take Geno Smith in the top 10...

Quote:
Quote:
Let's keep the following in mind:

Smith is, without a doubt, the top quarterback prospect in this draft. Period. No debate. Nothing he has done between his final college game and his pro day has changed that. He is the only sure-fire quarterback prospect in the top half of the first round.
This is pure opinion. I didn't know LFC was a football analyst or scout. I thought he was a reporter. Analyst's opinions about Smith and this QB class are all over the place. JLC basically states here that every single team in the NFL has him as their No. 1 QB, which is a ridiculous assumption.
Like I said, Rotoworld is taking JLC's opinion as gospel.

Here's what Adam Schefter, who is far more reliable said on the matter:

Quote:
Quote:
"It looks more and more like he's going to go in the top 10," Schefter said. "... It's difficult to say (exactly where he'll go), but it's not difficult to discern that Geno Smith is looking more and more like a top-ten pick."
That sounds like he's heard some buzz. But he's not guaranteeing anything probably because he doesn't know for sure. Just like no one knows for sure until it happens.

JAC, PHI, and OAK have had newspaper reports that call their interest in him a smokescreen. And I still think it's entirely possible that JAC, PHI do like him... but not in the top 5... 6 is Cleveland, and they could pounce, but I can alwso see this unfolding... the how is Leinart/Rodgers/Quinn/Clausen still on the board?!... Quinn passed Miami for TED GINN?!? WTF!?! All these teams are passing on him... and then if he gets past BUF/NYJ, and the JAC/PHI interest makes sense again...

Gun to my head, Smith will go in the top ten. The rookie wage scale absolutely helps him - which is a good point JLC makes.

But here are my arguments, and they've been consistent and No. 1 is my main argument, No. 2 I just think shouldn't be completely dismissed:

1) He's not WORTH a top-ten pick - I wouldn't take him there and I'll disagree with the team that does.

2) There is still a chance, perhaps slim, he falls into the teens, 20s, or later. It's the NFL draft and I've seen it happen before. The flaws in his game are just so evident that I think most teams will see them also. The Chiefs and Cardinals already said no.

He'll probably go high. But a "report" like this doesn't seal anything. Draft night does.
Him publishing that is a joke and to all of you saying I was nuts for saying he could fall out of the top ten... crow.

Last edited by gpngc : 04-25-2013 at 11:12 PM.
gpngc is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.