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Old 04-17-2013, 01:26 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
By any measure Jay Cutler was a first round talent and deserved to be selected among the top 32 picks. He's so far beyond a 'marginal' starter.
My dude Colt McCoy is a marginal starter. Christian Ponder is a marginal starter.
Jay Cutler was the 27th ranked QB in DVOA last year according to footballoutsiders.com. He was the 20th ranked QB in ESPN's QBR rating. He was really bad last year and he hasn't been all that good at all the past three years in Chicago. If it wasn't for their elite, top-3 defense in 2010, Cutler would not have played a single playoff game in his career at any point so far.

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And to be accurate, you said you wouldn't draft ANY sub 60% passer in college. I'm the one who made the distinction between career versus single season completion percentage.
No, I would not draft a sub 60% passer if he was a sub 60% passer in his entire college career. Players grow and develop. A QB could easily pass for less than 60% in one of his earlier years and then develop into a 64% passer later and even out his career completion %.

You may have misunderstood me when I said that, but I'm telling you right now that my opinion is that a QB should be a 60% passer over the course of his college career. I don't fixate on individual seasons.

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Matt Ryan was a 59% passer his senior year at BC.

That 60% threshold isn't totally arbitrary, but it's not really much different than 59% or 58%.
There's not one statistic you can isolate as a definitive predictor for NFL success.
Actually, there is. If you look at the history of QBs, the vast majority of the successful ones pass for more than 60% completion in college over the course of their careers.

Many QBs who *do* pass for > 60% completion in college don't go onto success in the NFL, but it's almost *guaranteed* that you won't succeed in the NFL if you are a sub 60% completion passer.

The bar is set at 60% for success. History bears this out. You may not be successful even if you have that, but you *surely* won't be successful if you *don't* have it.


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Scouting prospects is both analytical and intuitive. Most of us watch prospects with a blend of both methods. I'm just less of a numbers guy for most prospects, beyond basic measurements of their overall production in college and general athleticism.

When anyone argues 'x stat' is the holy grail for a specific position and is a failsafe predictor of NFL success, it rubs me the wrong way.
There are definitely intuitive aspects of evaluating prospects, and subjective analysis comes into play as well.

However, there are statistical and objective measurements that should serve as baselines for certain positions.

Would you ever take a chance on a cornerback who ran a 4.8 or slower 40? The chances of that cornerback being successful in the NFL is practically zero, even if he had elite intangibles, elite work ethic, elite tackling ability, and elite size. Speed is just such a critical component of the CB play that there is a certain prerequisite of having *some* speed. Obviously you do not need 4.4 40 speed, but you can't be slower than around 4.8, even if you play Cover-2.

Similarly, QBs need to have at least a baseline accuracy just to compete in the NFL. It's like 40 time for CBs. There are many other factors that go into success at the position beyond the completion percentage (factors that explain why Colt McCoy, for example, sucks), but 60% completion percentage should be your baseline before you begin considering anything else. If he can't complete passes with a modicum of accuracy in college when passing windows are wide open, then how will he ever do that in the NFL? He won't.
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Old 04-17-2013, 01:27 AM    (permalink
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Find me stats from their college careers. Post me a link to this.

Joe Montana, 52% for his career. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...montana-1.html

Brett Favre, 52.4% for his career. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...t-favre-1.html

Dan Marino, 57.6% for his career. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...-marino-1.html

I only did it because that is a hilarious demand to make on the internet.
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Old 04-17-2013, 01:31 AM    (permalink
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Joe Montana also played in a different era. You can't look at those stats in the same light.

Prior to the 90s, college teams had completely close passing games that were based more around the run game and the long bomb.

The WCO that Montana played in the NFL was completely different from the offense he ran at Notre Dame.


In today's college environment, however, the passing game is much more open, and the spread rules. The spread offense contributes to huge completion % figures, and anyone with a sub 60% completion should be red-flagged in the modern environment, whereas in the older environment it would not have been the same criteria.
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Old 04-17-2013, 01:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Joe Montana also played in a different era. You can't look at those stats in the same light.

Prior to the 90s, college teams had completely close passing games that were based more around the run game and the long bomb.

The WCO that Montana played in the NFL was completely different from the offense he ran at Notre Dame.


In today's college environment, however, the passing game is much more open, and the spread rules. The spread offense contributes to huge completion % figures, and anyone with a sub 60% completion should be red-flagged in the modern environment, whereas in the older environment it would not have been the same criteria.
Do you think every college team runs the same offense? Completion percentage is not to quarterbacks what the 40 is to wide receivers. There is not a statistical metric which can definitively tell you how accurate a quarterback is.
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Old 04-17-2013, 02:11 AM    (permalink
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AcheTen, you said, "If you look at the history of QBs, the vast majority of the successful ones pass for more than 60% completion in college over the course of their careers. "

History is a long time relatively speaking in the NFL. Marino never completed 60% of his passes in college either.

The difference between the pro game now compared to the 1980s and earlier is the number of intermediate and shorter routes, dumpoffs and screens present in today's game.
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Old 04-17-2013, 05:25 AM    (permalink
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5 pages and no Sheldon Richardson mention... I am the biggest Mizzou homer around and a huge fan of big Shel, but I cannot deny that he has some serious bust qualities. He was suspended for the Syracuse game for violating team rules. A really tight game we subsequently lost, in large part due to his absence IMO. Costing us a bowl berth in the process.

He is a freak in terms of quickness and pursuit, but often lacks proper leverage and does too much guessing. Takes himself out of too many plays. Really cocky attitude at all times, needs to learn real quick that Sheldon Richardson's are not uncommon in the NFL. I root for him as I do all Mizzou draft prospects, but he worries me almost as much as Blaine Gabbert.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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Taking Ansah and it's not even close for me.

People say JPP but he DOMINATED two years of community college and then had 6.5 sacks in 6 starts. Ansah is even more raw and didn't produce at all during his tenure. His senior year was the only one with remotely passable stats (13 TFL and 4.5 sacks in 9 starts.

His potential is off the charts but his bust potential is very high as well.
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Old 04-19-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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Sam Montgomery, Ryan Nassib, Cyprien are my big 3. Two other guys I could see are Jarvis Jones and Kenny Vacarro.
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Old 04-19-2013, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Trogdor View Post
Taking Ansah and it's not even close for me.

People say JPP but he DOMINATED two years of community college and then had 6.5 sacks in 6 starts. Ansah is even more raw and didn't produce at all during his tenure. His senior year was the only one with remotely passable stats (13 TFL and 4.5 sacks in 9 starts.

His potential is off the charts but his bust potential is very high as well.
Just remember Ansah didn't play off the edge for BYU. He still has a relatively high bust factor, but his potential is a double digit sack guy.
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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1. Kenny Vaccaro
2. Jarvis Jones
3. Barkevious Mingo
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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1. Kenny Vaccaro
2. Jarvis Jones
3. Barkevious Mingo
I like the Mingo pick. He's really skinny for being 240 lbs.
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Old 04-23-2013, 09:31 PM    (permalink
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I guess I'll take Jarvis Jones. Just not confident that he has the explosiveness or athletic ability to make up for his lack of size.
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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Derek Carr
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Taylor Lewan
JaDeveon Clowney
Calvin Pryor
Blake Bortles
Anthony Barr
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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Johnny Manziel
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"If something happens, and it's the Cleveland Browns, I'm going to pour my heart out for the Dawg Pound and try to win a Super Bowl for Cleveland," he said. "I don't care if they've had 20 starting quarterbacks since 1999. I'm going to be the 21st and the guy that brought them the Super Bowl." - JFF
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:50 PM    (permalink
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But Manziel will be the funnest Browns bust in a long time.
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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History and pure numbers dictate that a good number of WRs drafted this year will not live up to the high expectations of the fan bases. There's so many young and talented WR's that every fan will think their team made a great pick when they pick a WR early and a steal when they take one mid to late rounds. I'd throw out a name or two, but I don't really have a good feeling on who it might be.
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Old 03-01-2014, 07:36 PM    (permalink
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I don't think Benjamin ends up being drafted in the 1st, but if he is, he'd be my top candidate.

Wish I was around last year to tell you guys that Patterson had one of the highest floors in the draft - because of his abilities with the ball in his hands. Even if he never develops into a decent WR, he was never going to be a bust.
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Old 03-01-2014, 07:50 PM    (permalink
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Wouldn't want to predict bust but some with stock down heading towards the draft:

Austin Sefarian Jenkins
Jace Amaro
Cyrus Kuondijo
Tiny Richardson
Jarvis Landry
Allen Robinson
Jeremy Hill
Tajh Boyd
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Old 03-01-2014, 07:50 PM    (permalink
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Watkins could bust or at least dissapoint as a top 10 pick. He's compared to Percy Harvin but he's not as good a route runner as Percy, plus he has questionable character and intelligence. He relies on his speed but he has A- speed, rather than A+ speed ala Moss.
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:08 PM    (permalink
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Watkins could bust or at least dissapoint as a top 10 pick. He's compared to Percy Harvin but he's not as good a route runner as Percy, plus he has questionable character and intelligence. He relies on his speed but he has A- speed, rather than A+ speed ala Moss.
1. Are you comparing his route-running to Harvin as a prospect? Because if you are...

2. Didn't Harvin have character concerns as well? Or am I misremembering?
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:22 PM    (permalink
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It's also worth mentioning Harvin's injury concerns. The guy weighs like 185 although he plays tough but it's hard to compare them when Watkins is 30 pounds heavier.
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Old 03-01-2014, 09:28 PM    (permalink
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Not a big Teddy B fan. Wouldn't surprise me if he was the biggest bust of Round 1.

I'm a huge fan of Johnny Football, but it wouldn't surprise me at all either if he was out of the league in a couple years.
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Old 03-01-2014, 09:46 PM    (permalink
SickwithIt1010
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Originally Posted by thebow305 View Post
Not a big Teddy B fan. Wouldn't surprise me if he was the biggest bust of Round 1.

I'm a huge fan of Johnny Football, but it wouldn't surprise me at all either if he was out of the league in a couple years.
How can you not be a fan of Teddy?

I know its personal opinion obviously, but outside of a slight frame, everything in the guy's game translates very well.
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Originally Posted by 49erNation85 View Post
I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:30 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
Wouldn't want to predict bust but some with stock down heading towards the draft:

Austin Sefarian Jenkins
Jace Amaro
Cyrus Kuondijo
Tiny Richardson
Jarvis Landry
Allen Robinson
Jeremy Hill
Tajh Boyd
I agree with this entire list, other than ASJ.
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Old 03-02-2014, 04:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SickwithIt1010 View Post
How can you not be a fan of Teddy?

I know its personal opinion obviously, but outside of a slight frame, everything in the guy's game translates very well.
He's just another Teddy hater that can't give any good reasons why they think he isn't good.
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