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Old 04-24-2013, 08:47 AM    (permalink
JoeJoeBrown
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Default The Draft is a Crapshoot

Crapshoot

tl;dr = Having more picks is the best way to consistently win at the draft since you really never know whom is going to pan out.
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Old 04-24-2013, 09:37 AM    (permalink
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Correct.
And it's always like that.
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Old 04-24-2013, 10:01 AM    (permalink
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I thought it was a fantastic article, even if it wasnt a "breakthrough" of new information.

What it really comes down to is finding the right type of player for the right type of system. The consistently "good teams" seem to do this best (Thinking Ravens and Steelers as examples), but even these organizations have huge blunders over the years.

As already noted, the best way to see success is to have as many "shots" as you can at hitting the target.

For me, mixing the "wheeling-and-dealing" of Jimmie Johnson with the "Patriot Way" of usually trading back along with giving my coaching staff enough time to truly install a "system" is the only way to be "better than average" when it comes to the draft.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown View Post
Crapshoot

tl;dr = Having more picks is the best way to consistently win at the draft since you really never know whom is going to pan out.
Exactly what Jimmy Johnson said when he was running the Cowboy's draft.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown View Post
Crapshoot

tl;dr = Having more picks is the best way to consistently win at the draft since you really never know whom is going to pan out.
I didn't read this but if this is the study i think it is, its based on the previous CBA's contract values? And didn't it simply base the value of each pick by number games started/played with the team that picked them divided by the salary? Which would clearly make high draft picks worth less? Silly study if that's the one the article refers to, and not applicable today.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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I didn't read this but if this is the study i think it is, its based on the previous CBA's contract values? And didn't it simply base the value of each pick by number games started/played with the team that picked them divided by the salary? Which would clearly make high draft picks worth less? Silly study if that's the one the article refers to, and not applicable today.
Good job in coming up with a definitive response when you didn't read the article.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:36 PM    (permalink
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One cool aspect is that there may be some franchise changing players hidden in this Draft. Maybe one of these QBs will be WAY better than we had a clue he would be, ala Tom Brady and Joe Montana. Maybe there will be a defender drafted late in round 1 who really blows expectations out of the water, ala Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.
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Old 04-24-2013, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown View Post
Good job in coming up with a definitive response when you didn't read the article.
Is it not? Then I retract my statement. Every time Ive heard the 'only way to win at the draft is to obtain more picks' argument it referenced the study I referred to. I'm busy enough right now such that I cant read a long article but not busy enough to post on forums, if that makes any sense.
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Old 04-24-2013, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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Convert 2/3 of the time in the first and second rounds and 1/2 of the time in the third and fourth rounds, and you'll be fine.
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Old 04-24-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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There are more variables involved in determining how good a player will be besides where he was taken in the draft. Scheme fit, organizational stability among the coaches, player development and shrewd scouting of those x-variables most critical to success in the NFL all weigh heavily in how successful a player will be or not in the pros.

There's a randomness to the process, but it's not a total crapshoot.

You really can't afford to miss on first round picks is the take away I got from it.
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Old 04-24-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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He put into words a very intricate concept -

Quote:
Finally, it's close to impossible to extricate the gap between good scouting and good development in determining how "well" a team drafts. Do the Steelers consistently find great talent at linebacker because they draft well, or is it because they play a stable defensive style, have a great coordinator, and do an ideal job of integrating their young talent into the lineup? It's difficult to tease out because we don't get to see a player come into the league for more than one team. We'll never know what LaMarr Woodley would have turned into if he had been drafted by the Saints as opposed to the Steelers. That's the reality of sports, and it colors how we view players in hindsight.
I think that it is less that the draft is a crapshoot, and more that we may not always incorporate the coaching process at the pro-level when we as a draft-nik community initially evaluate a pick's value.
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Old 04-24-2013, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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I've thought about that a lot over the past few years because the Packers are seemingly incapable of drafting a bad WR. Have they just figured out how to scout WRs, or does the system allow them to flourish? I don't mean their offensive system, but the entire process of developing these guys. How important was the veteran leadership of Donald Driver? If Jordy Nelson had been drafted by the Raiders, would he suck?

Then again, maybe they're just on a hot streak.

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Old 04-24-2013, 02:36 PM    (permalink
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We must be really gullible then.
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Old 04-24-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by WCH View Post
I've thought about that a lot over the past few years because the Packers are seemingly incapable of drafting a bad WR. Have they just figured out how to scout WRs, or does the system allow them to flourish? I don't mean their offensive system, but the entire process of developing these guys. How important was the veteran leadership of Donald Driver? If Jordy Nelson had been drafted by the Raiders, would he suck?

Then again, maybe they're just on a hot streak.
This is another good example.

The Steelers are a good example with their LB, but frankly they seem to do well everywhere but perhaps offensive line.

So most people acknowledge the "good" drafting teams (Ravens, Steelers as my top 2 examples) and then the "bad" drafting teams (Raiders come to mind first)...so what objectively is different? Certainly a number of things, but one of the big keys is the stability of the "good" teams while the "bad" teams change schemes all the time.

Admittedly, the NFL is a win-now business and some coaches can take a roster that has failed and turn it around (Harbaugh in SF is a great example), but more importantly it is finding a solid coach and system for the players you have and then finding more players that fit your system.

If I was an owner/GM I would do my homework to get a coach, build the staff and then truly commit to give them 4 or 5 seasons (perhaps even more) to build a roster, implement their system and then develop players. Only then will I know what I have and can really build a "program."
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