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Old 04-25-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Default Why Jordan & Mingo Have High Bust Potential

Interesting article by the foremost statistical analysis site on the net:

http://predictionmachine.com/nfl-dra...go-jordan-bust

Quote:
Every year there are a few players who seem to wow the scouting community with their blend of size, speed, power and agility. Scouts and front office executives think that their organization is the best place to mold these dynamic athletes into elite pass rushers. Unfortunately, the number of players to be developed from projects to Pro Bowlers is few and far between. For every player like Vernon Gholston, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers and Derrick Morgan, the likes of Michael Strahan, Robert Mathis, and Jared Allen were elite pass rushers in college that slipped down the draft boards. Below are two players—Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon, and Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU—that have all the measurables but lack the production. For that reason, I have them ranked lower than have most draft pundits.

Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

In 45 career games, Dion Jordan had a total of 49.5 impact plays for an average of 1.10. This ranks 19th amongst all pass rushers in this year’s draft class. Jordan failed to show up against quality competition; instead, he made a few highlight tape moments against weaker, less formidable opponents. Below is a chart that shows the teams Jordan registered a sack against last season (five in all), and the opponents’ NCAA rankings in terms of sacks allowed AND the average number of sacks these respected teams gave up per game last year.




Sacks Allowed




Rankings


Avg. # of sacks allowed per game

Fresno State


78


2.2

Tennessee Tech


FCS


2.0

Washington State


120


4.8

Arizona State


102


2.9

Avg.


106.3


3.0

The highest-ranked team is Tennessee Tech, but they play in the FCS level of college football. On average, these teams gave up close to three sacks a game last season. To put this in perspective, the National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide allowed, on average, 1.64 sacks a game last season, which ranks them 46th in the country.

Of the roughly 150 current and former elite pass rushers in the NFL that make up our Pass Rushers Report, only 28 of them had 14.5 or fewer sacks for their college careers. This accounts for only 18.6% of the players in the study. In the report, I recommended that teams focus on players who have achieved at least 18.5 career sacks in college. There are a total of 98 players who have achieved this mark, which is 65.3% of the entire collection.

Dion Jordan had 14.5 sacks throughout his college career, yet NFL scouts and media are enamored with his length and athleticism. The question I keep coming back to when I read scouting reports on Jordan is, why didn’t he showcase this speed and athletic prowess during games? Hard to imagine that a player who was ranked 85th in the conference in tackles per game at 3.67 is going to be a top ten selection. He was ranked 19th in the conference in TFL, third on his own team. Lastly, he ranked 21st in the conference in sacks at 0.42 sacks a game. Yet, when he lines up across from the likes of Joe Thomas, Russell Okung or Joe Staley, scouts believe he will have no problem getting after the quarterback?

The best outside linebacker coming from the Pac-12 isn’t Dion Jordan; it is Chase Thomas from Stanford. For his career, Thomas had 27.5 sacks, 50 TFL and nine FF. Some team is going to get a steal with Thomas, and some team is going to get a major project with Jordan.

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

Barkevious Mingo possesses a long frame, with athleticism that most scouts believe warrants a top ten selection. He outperformed most scouts’ high expectations at the NFL Combine, running a blistering 4.53 40-yard dash, and showing off a 37” vertical and 10’8” broad jump. All-in-all, an impressive physical specimen and a player who is the definition of a boom or bust pick.

Up until this point, Mingo has been able to get by just on his raw athleticism and speed. His one area of strength is using his long arms to break up passes, with his 11 PB ranking sixth amongst all draft-eligible defensive ends. His go-to pass rush move is the outside speed rush; he doesn’t possess the technique to fight through blocks nor does he have an interior power rush move.

Mingo played opposite the third-ranked defensive end pass rusher on our board, Sam Montgomery, who accumulated 19 sacks and 32.5 TFL and averaged 1.82 impacts plays per game for his career. Mingo had 15 sacks, 29 TFL and averaged 1.48 impact players per game for his career. Yet, Montgomery is graded by most scouts as a second-round selection, having played the RDE spot where he was matched up against some of the nation’s top left tackles, such as Luke Joeckel, a possible first-overall selection in this year’s draft from Texas A&M.

Against Texas A&M, Mingo was matched up against 2014 future first-round draft prospect, Jake Matthews. Matthews stonewalled him throughout the game, barely giving up any ground and moving Mingo in any direction he pleased. For all the talk about Mingo’s speed, though, his average time from snap to contact with the quarterback was a pedestrian 3.46 seconds in this game, not the elite time one would expect from a future top-ten selection. If he can’t match up against one of the best in college football, how can someone assume he can deliver in the NFL?

Mingo’s average impact plays per game ranks him 19th amongst draft eligible defensive ends. While he had a good redshirt sophomore campaign, he never quite reached the same level of production this past season, when he finished eighth on his own team with 38 tackles and fourth for TFL with seven. Not the production I would expect from a top ten selection.

Though he is freakishly athletic, he leaves a lot to be desired. Without the strength to fight through blocks, he is a liability as a run defender. His limited production as a pass rusher also leaves me to wonder, why would someone take a chance on him in the first round? I have a mid-round grade on him, a third-rounder at best. He should be given some time to develop and learn the finer details on how to become a good pass rusher.
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Old 04-25-2013, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Jordan, Mingo, and Jones all scare me. And knowing my luck, the Jets will take the one who is the biggest bust, and the other 2 will be pro bowlers.
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Old 04-25-2013, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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I don't think there is a single pass rusher in this class without high bust potential, is there? Ansah likely has higher bust potential than both Mingo and Jordan.
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Old 04-25-2013, 11:53 AM    (permalink
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Here's my take on it...

Why Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo have high bust potential: because they're NFL draft prospects.
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Old 04-25-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nepg View Post
Here's my take on it...

Why Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo have high bust potential: because they're NFL draft prospects.
So by that logic Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel have high bust potential? You sir are a genius!
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Old 04-25-2013, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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Especially with Jordan, this doesn't show anything about where they lined up or anything of that sort, adding injury to the question (DJ had shoulder surgery, but played through a torn labrum since the ASU game), those stats are SEVERELY skewed. Dion also played with a DL that at a few points last year started 3 freshman that we're ready to start yet, including a 280lb 0T NT. Jordan played a ton of slot CB, and even some boundary CB, mostly pressing and then dropping into short zones. Chase Thomas played with MULTIPLE guy who are going to be high round draft picks on a defense that was one of the best in college football, he was the one that they let beat them, not very promising IMO. And i hate people that brought up the PBU argument for him not being good in coverage, that has nothing to do with coverage skills unless your tested 5-10 times a game, and he rarely played in man coverage.

I think Mingo's strength in being underrated because they didn't let him rush. Watch the first couple plays vs. Bama, he walks Fluker right back into the QB after getting him off balance/over extended with his speed. If you watch him closely on run plays, the only guy that i've ever seen move him off the ball just pure one on one is Fluker, whos as strong as any OL he's going to see in the NFL. My biggest problem with Mingo is that i need to see him show that he can put, and keep weight on. If he does, i think he's going to be a carbon copy of Cam Wake in the NFL.
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Old 04-25-2013, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duffman57 View Post
Especially with Jordan, this doesn't show anything about where they lined up or anything of that sort, adding injury to the question (DJ had shoulder surgery, but played through a torn labrum since the ASU game), those stats are SEVERELY skewed. Dion also played with a DL that at a few points last year started 3 freshman that we're ready to start yet, including a 280lb 0T NT. Jordan played a ton of slot CB, and even some boundary CB, mostly pressing and then dropping into short zones. Chase Thomas played with MULTIPLE guy who are going to be high round draft picks on a defense that was one of the best in college football, he was the one that they let beat them, not very promising IMO. And i hate people that brought up the PBU argument for him not being good in coverage, that has nothing to do with coverage skills unless your tested 5-10 times a game, and he rarely played in man coverage.

I think Mingo's strength in being underrated because they didn't let him rush. Watch the first couple plays vs. Bama, he walks Fluker right back into the QB after getting him off balance/over extended with his speed. If you watch him closely on run plays, the only guy that i've ever seen move him off the ball just pure one on one is Fluker, whos as strong as any OL he's going to see in the NFL. My biggest problem with Mingo is that i need to see him show that he can put, and keep weight on. If he does, i think he's going to be a carbon copy of Cam Wake in the NFL.
Wake has a WAY more rugged, powerful build that Mingo cannot replicate.
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Old 04-25-2013, 12:33 PM    (permalink
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There is no safe pass rusher in this class. I think some of them will be good but I don't feel great about any of them.

J Jones - Stenosis, willingness to work out, slow 40, bad vs. the run
D Moore - slow off the snap, supposed immaturity, bad workout numbers
Z Ansah - low production, little football experience
D Jordan - low pass rush production, played at a much lower weight
B Mingo - immaturity/betting issues, not that productive, small
B Werner - slow timed speed, may not be a fit for 3-4 teams
T Carradine - coming off injury, one year as a starter, played on a great defense and might've capitalized on lack of attention from blockers
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Old 04-25-2013, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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I love how he doesn't take into account Jordan's responsibilities. As if he was just always left to rush the passer.
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Old 04-25-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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The thing that scares me about Jordan is his lack of core strength. The guy is all arms and legs. He has no base at all. It's easy to push him around bc of that.

He's gotta do some serious serious core training. He's a little too much like Aaron Maybin, but I think he should be ok with the proper coaching and training.

That's the key for him though. If he never develops a stronger base he's gonna bust. If he does, he can be a stud.
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