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View Poll Results: Who will win the NBA Championship in 2013?
Miami Heat 15 26.79%
Miami Heat 3 5.36%
Miami Heat 31 55.36%
Miami Heat 6 10.71%
Miami Heat 1 1.79%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-20-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
comahan
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Maybe you can sign JR to a one year deal then OKC will give you Westbrook for Shumpert, a few firsts, and one year of JR Smith.
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Old 05-20-2013, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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Maybe you can sign JR to a one year deal then OKC will give you Westbrook for Shumpert, a few firsts, and one year of JR Smith.
I see what you did there.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Maybe you can sign JR to a one year deal then OKC will give you Westbrook for Shumpert, a few firsts, and one year of JR Smith.
You can't see this, but I am slow clapping. Bravo sir, bravo.

Also, the Knicks roster is hilarious going into next season. Oh, it's the same roster minus JR? Yup, was hilarious this season too.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Maybe you can sign JR to a one year deal then OKC will give you Westbrook for Shumpert, a few firsts, and one year of JR Smith.
Maybe you can root for the Knicks next year, and learn what it feels like to root for a winner!

#workingonanewhashtag
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Moneyball is looking for market inefficiencies. It is finding value where others have yet to find value.

It is misused as a term by many, many news outlets as a substitute for Sabermetrics or statistical analysis.. (The same way they misuse Jihad)

Moneyball in the NBA has been limited to an increase in Corner threes and Free Throws.
Moneyball in the NBA is actually based more on high rebound guys like Reggie Evans more than anything, with more emphasis on guys that can make threes, get to the line and avoid turnovers. Offensive rebounding helps as well. Tyson Chandler actually is a perfect example of a moneyball guy at one point.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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Kenyon Martin, Birdman, they would classify as moneyball players no?
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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How would you quantify defense though? And what's this PER thing everyone keeps talking about?

Would you base defense off of steals, blocked shots, and opponent field goal % per game?

Does anyone keep that stat? An individual defender's field goal % against him?
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Kenyon Martin, Birdman, they would classify as moneyball players no?
K-Mart not at all, Birdman yes. And defense isn't very easy to quantify necessarily, there's the aggregate formula for defensive win shares that is really flawed.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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PER is Player Efficiency Rating that uses a formula to try and put all of a players contributions into one singular number. It's not without its flaws, but it's a nice tool to look at. Melo actually finished 4th in PER this year, so you might like it!
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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K-Mart not at all, Birdman yes. And defense isn't very easy to quantify necessarily, there's the aggregate formula for defensive win shares that is really flawed.
Why Birdman but not KMart? Aren't they practically the same player? Actually KMart is better if anything.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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Kenyon Martin, Birdman, they would classify as moneyball players no?
You can't really play moneyball if you have all the money.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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PER is Player Efficiency Rating that uses a formula to try and put all of a players contributions into one singular number. It's not without its flaws, but it's a nice tool to look at. Melo actually finished 4th in PER this year, so you might like it!
In theory, big men would have a biased advantage in this equation wouldn't they? Their FG % is typically higher, rebound totals higher, blocked shots etc.

So wouldn't the PER system be biased towards big men?
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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Has anyone done any analysis where they analyze the team's PER total vs the opposition's avg PER total, and see if there's a correlation in win % vs said opponent?

I'm curious to see if you can build a team off of PER totals and use that as a statistical output in determining the probable outcome of a game btw 2 teams.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:55 PM    (permalink
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Why Birdman but not KMart? Aren't they practically the same player? Actually KMart is better if anything.
Not even close. Birdman= high rebound, high block rate, efficient on offense because he limits dumb shots. K-Mart isn't good at any of those things for a big man.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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Lol at K-Mart being better than Birdman.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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Why Birdman but not KMart? Aren't they practically the same player? Actually KMart is better if anything.
When you averaged the numbers out to per 36 minutes, it's evident that Birdman is a significantly better rebounder and shot blocker. And although the career percentages are similar between the two, Martin is 37 of 94 (39%) from the free throw line over the past two seasons. Birdman also gets to the line more often. Advanced stats support these numbers.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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See this is where I have a hard time with these statistics. If you watch Martin play, you see how valuable he was. I'd argue that he's better than Birdman, he's a better defender.

Yet this PER statistic is saying he's not. It sounds misleading.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:59 PM    (permalink
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Well he's not better than Birdman so it really isn't misleading. :)
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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He's a much better defender than Birdman. His footspeed is 10x better and he's more physical.
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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See this is where I have a hard time with these statistics. If you watch Martin play, you see how valuable he was. I'd argue that he's better than Birdman, he's a better defender.

Yet this PER statistic is saying he's not. It sounds misleading.
One, I don't use PER. Two, I just said why Birdman is a moneyball player and K-Mart isn't. Three, K-Mart was way above his usual play this year.
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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In theory, big men would have a biased advantage in this equation wouldn't they? Their FG % is typically higher, rebound totals higher, blocked shots etc.

So wouldn't the PER system be biased towards big men?
True shooting percentage accounts for three pointers and free throws. Effective FG% accounts for threes being worth more than twos. I imagine PER does similar. Not sure if things such as usage are included in PER.
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
One, I don't use PER. Two, I just said why Birdman is a moneyball player and K-Mart isn't. Three, K-Mart was way above his usual play this year.
Why don't you use PER? Spreadsheets make your **** hard. Why wouldn't this one?
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:05 PM    (permalink
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Pat Riley has mastered moneyball the past 2 seasons. The first season with the big 3 - not so much.

That being said, comparing moneyball in basketball to baseball is pretty much impossible.
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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Fun fact, the top 11 all time PER seasons are from only three players: Wilt (3 times including #1 and #2), Jordan (4 times), and LeBron (4 times).
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Old 05-20-2013, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Why don't you use PER? Spreadsheets make your **** hard. Why wouldn't this one?
Because it places too much of an emphasis on rewarding players with high usage rates.
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