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Old 06-01-2013, 11:20 AM    (permalink
stlouisfan37
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I follow a lot of player stats and, while stats do not tell the whole story, and can be more relevant with one player than another, they are necessary to a point when it comes to HOF balloting. Many people think that Kurt Warner is a lock for the Hall of Fame, but others point to the fact that he is only 30th or so in yards and touchdowns. If he had another 3 seasons worth of stats I think there would be no question.

Which brings me to my point. Ten years from now, when the voters are starting to look at the bodies of work from this era of football, the record books will look much different. Peyton Manning will pass Marino this season, and probably Favre in another 2-3 years. Brees is on pace to pass them both. Brady is closing in on 50,000 yards.

But where it gets convoluted is when you have the typical player racking up the big numbers as well. Carson Palmer is approaching 30,000 passing yards and could very well pass Fran Tarkenton before all is said and done. Tarkenton retired at #1 in nearly every statistical category. Palmer has already blown past nearly a dozen HOF quarterbacks from the modern era in terms of stats.

Someone mentioned Tony Romo. If you look at his numbers, then yes, he absolutely should have the numbers to get in. He already has blown past the likes of the great Roger Staubach and is right on the heels of a whole mess of Hall of Famers. But when you look at his body of work, and what he has done in the postseason with a very talented team - never the most talented, but very talented still - I think you will be hard-pressed to find a lot of votes in support of him making it unless he gets over the hump and comes home with a ring. With a player like Romo, whether or not he wins a Super Bowl absolutely does matter, much more than it did with Marino or Kelly.

So, while we can all sit here and say that stats don't really matter, they really do to a point. They are a tool that we use to help us separate greatness from mediocrity. When X quarterback is due for his HOF balloting and has 50,000 yards and 300 touchdowns, the stats of his peers will be used right alongside him. They will say that Tom Brady had 50,000 yards and 300 touchdowns, but so did Tony Romo. So is X quarterback more like Tom Brady or Tony Romo?
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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A lot of really good debate in this thread. The Eli elite thing is a really good one. He's clutch as all get out and will get in based off of two rings, playing in NY, his last name. Just as much as he's been clutch, he's been terrible and for some reason that goes unnoticed. And to say he out played Brady in both super bowls to me is ridiculous. He simply scored last and had A LOT of help (Tyree, Welker drop). If those two plays don't happen, Brady is a 5 time champ and 3rd to only Jesus and Tebow. You still can't take that away from him and while he's been lucky, he's also been super clutch in way too many do or die situations for it all to be luck. He has that IT gene everyone talks about. You know who else had that IT gene? Romo. I just don't get why it goes into remission in crucial games. He's Eli w/o the rings maybe a bit better statistically even but I don't think he sniffs the HOF w/o at least one ring. Big Ben is a very similar player and I think he's a lock as well and that's the difference. If Romo had a D play like these guy's D's played, he'd be in the convo as well. Manning couldn't get over the hump until his D played lights out either so that also goes to show you how much of a team effort it takes to win a SB.

No matter how good or elite any of the guys mentioned in this thread are, there's very few SB wins in the past couple of decades that didn't have a D play above or at expectation. Maybe Rodgers and Brees won despite anyone else, but all these guys for the most part had a good showing and that to me is the difference between a guy winning a championship and one not. And ultimately these guys legacy is pinned to the guys around them. Elway didn't win with a crappy team, Favre didn't, Brady hasn't, Manning didn't. The D has been the biggest deciding factor for MOST of these guys during SB wins however we have it in engrained in us that QB's rise to the occasion in these big games, and they do to an extent but they wouldn't even get that chance if the guys on the other side didn't play well enough against another really good QB in most cases to provide that opportunity.

I think if you give Ryan, Romo, or any other good QB a solid defensive effort like these other guys got, they'd deliver similar results. That's just my take on it.
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Romo chokes consistently in the big game. There's something missing in his psychological makeup that prevents him from being a special QB. Great stats, wins occasionally in spectacular fashion during the regular season, but let him play in a game to win the division or make the playoffs and he poops himself.

Last year when the SKins played the Cowboys the last game of the season to win the division, EVERY Skins fan I know believed in their hearts Romo was going to come up small. And he did. That's a thumbnail sketch of his career.

However if he ever did manage to win a SB...and be one of the main reasons the Cowboys won, I think the narrative about Romo would change.

In this scenario I think he'd have an outside shot at Canton, down the road.
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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It's just like the old adage goes - they get into the Hall if the story of the NFL can't get told without them. More often than ever, quarterbacks are the "Faces" of their franchises, so the most successful franchises will see their star quarterbacks get in at a disproportionate rate to other positions and other teams.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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Romo is a great fantasy football quarterback. But the man just wets the bed at the worst possible moment. Yes I'm aware of his 4th quarter comeback statistic, but it just seems like in that pressure cooker situation, he's almost guaranteed to screw it up.

I've been a Romo supporter for a long time but last year did it for me. I'm off the wagon.

You just KNEW he was gonna throw an INT against Washington on that last drive. How many of us said in the game discussion thread "Here comes the romoception" before it happened? It's almost too predictable.
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Old 06-07-2013, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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I dunno whether Romo is really a "choker" or just a very unlucky guy, but I do know that I feel sorry for him. The choking narrative was born with that botched field goal and there's just no reason for a starting QB to play special teams in this day and age.
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Old 06-07-2013, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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When you choke over and over and over again... you're a choker. If a "choker" exists, it's Tony Romo. The term implies that a guy is good enough to get to the big moment but can't get past it, and that pretty much defines Romo's career.
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Old 06-07-2013, 07:36 PM    (permalink
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You just KNEW he was gonna throw an INT against Washington on that last drive. How many of us said in the game discussion thread "Here comes the romoception" before it happened? It's almost too predictable.
That killed me last year too. In a game they had to have and in the most crucial time, I just had zero faith. Romo is a very good QB, but I just don't trust him with 2 minutes down one score. The winners in this league get me that lead. I trust the elite guys.

I do agree with the notion of the defense really stepping up to with though. The Saints and the Colts defense really became magic the years they won. Just creating turnovers they didn't do prior or since really. The defense really has to hold up their side because winning a super bowl is ******* hard.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:15 PM    (permalink
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Because those stats aren't phenomenal when Eli's play was, he made amazing plays and fantastic throws that gave his receivers, and only his receivers, a chance to make a fantastic play on the ball. Eli played about as awesome as a QB could be in a SB.
Yes he made a few amazing plays but that still does not mean he had a good game. Again 1 TD less then 300 in one game and 2TD 1 Int with only 255 yards is not good stats.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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Sometime i think people get WAY to caught up in the yards and stats etc...

For instance look at the NBA game last night, LeBron had a very average night...but the attention and impactful plays he made were hands down the most important reason why they won.


And in this case just because eli didnt have the 400 yards pass and 5 tds, he still made plays when his team needed them, that single handedly contributed to the Giants winning... throwing for 500 yards and losing isnt all that impressive.
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Old 06-10-2013, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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Yes he made a few amazing plays but that still does not mean he had a good game. Again 1 TD less then 300 in one game and 2TD 1 Int with only 255 yards is not good stats.

He still made more plays than Brady. So what's your point??
Eli elevated two Giants teams that weren't loaded with pro bowlers or 22 dominant starting players.

Those Giants teams just aren't SB squads without Eli.
Shanny calls dudes like Eli a 'force multiplier'. One guy whose play alone can make the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Also, sometimes playing great for a QB is simply driving your team down the field without turning the ball over, keeping possession long enough to give your defense a blow, and simply outscore the other team whether that's 45-38, or 7-3.
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Old 06-10-2013, 06:45 PM    (permalink
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Yes he made a few amazing plays but that still does not mean he had a good game. Again 1 TD less then 300 in one game and 2TD 1 Int with only 255 yards is not good stats.
That's the ******* point. The stats aren't great, even though his play was. So maybe stats really are a ******** way to measure a guy's caliber of play.
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Old 06-10-2013, 06:54 PM    (permalink
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Eli Manning bordered on terrible in SB 42. The game winning drive Eli legitimately could have thrown 3 INT's. His play to Tyree was really lucky, and his throw to Burress was the easiest read ever. He played much better in the last one, but lets not pretend like he actually played well in the first SB. He ended up winning, but he did his best to lose that game.

Note: Yes this is me still being butthurt about the loss many years later, but if you actually go back and watch that drive Eli really did everything in his power to lose that game. He wasn't exactly stellar for the rest of the game either.

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Old 06-10-2013, 09:29 PM    (permalink
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Eli Manning bordered on terrible in SB 42. The game winning drive Eli legitimately could have thrown 3 INT's. His play to Tyree was really lucky, and his throw to Burress was the easiest read ever. He played much better in the last one, but lets not pretend like he actually played well in the first SB. He ended up winning, but he did his best to lose that game.

Note: Yes this is me still being butthurt about the loss many years later, but if you actually go back and watch that drive Eli really did everything in his power to lose that game. He wasn't exactly stellar for the rest of the game either.
Have to agree. Big Ben's first SB was awful as well. I think both of them need to get another one to be locks. Either that or good play for the next 5-6 years at minimum. Longevity is probably overrated, but it still heavily factors in. Marino was unreal his first 5 years and then had 252 TDs and 172 INTs the next 12 years (21 TDs & 14 INT per year average). I think Marino was overrated a bit, but he was never really awful at any point and always carried his entire team, so nothing happened that changed people's opinions from those first 5 unreal years. Another SB or 5-6 more solid years where people's opinion of them doesn't go down, it'll be the same for Ben/Eli and they'll get in.

Brady and Peyton are locks obviously. Brees should be a sure thing with 3-4 more great years. Rodgers as well. He's on pace to have 5 or 6-1 TD/INT ratio which is insane for a career. Couple more years like that and he's in.

I don't think anyone else should be in the discussion at all right now other than those 6.
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Old 06-10-2013, 09:41 PM    (permalink
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People really need to go back and re-watch SB 42.
Tyree made a great recovery on a catch that was perfectly on target which he should have caught clean in both hands.

I don't root for the Giants obviously, but just as a football player my respect for Eli went up several levels after that game.
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Old 06-11-2013, 12:25 AM    (permalink
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lol you guys need to rewatch that game.
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Old 06-11-2013, 03:02 AM    (permalink
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How could Brees not be a lock? It would be utterly ridiculous to keep him out. Freak'n Warren Moon is in.
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Old 06-11-2013, 06:36 AM    (permalink
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lol you guys need to rewatch that game.
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People really need to go back and re-watch SB 42.
Tyree made a great recovery on a catch that was perfectly on target which he should have caught clean in both hands.

I don't root for the Giants obviously, but just as a football player my respect for Eli went up several levels after that game.

Honestly you guys need to go back and rewatch that game. People remember Eli's Tyree and Burress throws, and while I give Eli all the credit in the world for escaping from that pocket neither were particularly impressive throws themselves.

The Tyree throw was basically a bad decision wrapped in extreme fortune. Yes Eli drove the ball in there accurately. However, 5 times out of 10 facing DB's with a little more range that ball is picked. You don't throw passes 30 yards down the field where nobody moves for the duration of the throw. He was really fortunate to be facing an older player like Harrison rather than a DB who could actually move. Don't try to pretend that Eli was able to read that it was Harrison either. He broke out of that cluster in the pocket, saw some white and tried to get it there. Sometimes things break your way and it's part of the game, but that throw wasn't a display of extreme skill or decision making.

The Burress catch he had a 6'5" receiver on a 5'9" CB isolated on one side of the field. He threw a fade route on a busted coverage shell, which was the right decision. Hobbs made it even easier for him by falling down, but any QB likely would have made the same decision there, and put the ball in the same spot.

However, even if we take those as good skilled plays it doesn't account for the fact that he twice threw the ball to spots where Patriots players should have picked it, and threw it into triple coverage once.

He tried to throw it to Burress in the middle of the field when he had guys on 3 sides of him.

He also tried to throw a vertical route up the left sideline which Harrison took a bad angle on, but he should have picked it.

Then was the Samuel play.

I'm not saying this because I think Eli Manning sucks, it's actually quite the opposite. However, I think SB 42 gets wrapped up in the mystique of the well deserve clutch Manning, but he actually played pretty poorly especially on that drive. The Pats didn't capitalize which is their own damn fault, but it doesn't mean that Manning didn't give them opportunities late in the game to win that game.

In terms of legacy people are rightly given credit for their accomplishments because winning a SB is a big deal regardless of how people performed in the game itself. There were 20 games for Manning in which he made plenty of plays that got them to that result. However, I think if we switched the names around to something like Matt Barkley vs. Stanford in October people here would tear that performance apart.

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Old 06-11-2013, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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When people talk about Eli playing well in those two SBs, many are including his playoff performances to even get to the SB.

I just don't have much to criticize about Eli in that SB.
Remember this was the 2nd time Eli had played the Pats that season and Belichick had recent film on him.

When you go up against what many were calling potentially the best team in modern NFL history whom many thought were going to win the SB with their eyes closed, IMO it was an even more impressive performance.

People forget this might have been the biggest upset ever in the SB.

Yes the Giants defense deserved probably most of the credit for that win, but Eli made so many drive saving plays in that game.
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Old 06-11-2013, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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Current HOF QBs in the NFL:

1st Ballot
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers (barring a career ending injury in 2013-14)

Second or Later Ballot
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
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Old 06-12-2013, 04:08 AM    (permalink
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Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Peyton
Eli
Aaron Rodgers
Big Ben

Looking to the future:
Matt Ryan
Colin Kaepernick
Andrew Luck
Matt Stafford

Unfortunately for RG3 I see injuries shortening his career. Would LOVE to be wrong. Love watching him play.
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Old 06-12-2013, 11:09 AM    (permalink
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There's no way in hell Eli isn't a first ballot hall of famer.
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Old 06-12-2013, 11:13 AM    (permalink
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There's no way in hell Eli isn't a first ballot hall of famer.
I would agree with you that he'll probably make it in on the first ballot because he's a QB, but he isn't a first ballot caliber player right now.
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Old 06-14-2013, 02:57 AM    (permalink
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There's no way in hell Eli isn't a first ballot hall of famer.
Barely ever considered a top 2 QB, only one season thrown over 30 TD's, twice has thrown over 20 ints and two seasons has nearly 2o ints. People are putting to much emphasis on Super Bowls.
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Old 06-14-2013, 04:42 AM    (permalink
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There's no way in hell Eli isn't a first ballot hall of famer.
Wait...really?
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