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Old 08-13-2013, 04:32 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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The Browns and the Bengals have the most talent in that division. It's only a matter of time before one of those teams wins the division, and I think it will be this year.

Everyone is sleeping on Rivers. This guy was a top-3 QB not too long ago. I think he's in line for an MVP caliber season. Everyone else in that division has question marks. Can Manning stay upright and playing like an All-Pro forever? No. The Chiefs were the worst team in the NFL last year. Are they going to bounce back past .500 that quickly? Probably not. The Raiders suck.

I'm not so sold on the Cowboys being there, but I'm dead set on the Chargers being the AFC rep in the Super Bowl.
I would have no problem if you had predicted Cincinnati winning the division. They probably are the most talented team in the division (though they have the 3rd best QB). I think they will be neck-and-neck with Baltimore all year. But you said Celeveland. And they are not the most talnted team. Baltimore has them beat at receiver, quarterback, running back, and linebacker. Cleveland will be awful this year. They won't win more than 2 division games.

Rivers was never a top-3 QB. Brady, Manning, and Brees have alwasy been better than him. At best he was 4th (and I'm not saying that). They have no rushing attack, their line sucks, and their receivers blow. I suppose their defense isn't too bad. But if they even win 8 games I'll be shocked.
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Old 08-13-2013, 04:45 PM    (permalink
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Manning is playing at a high level at age 34+ and Rivers is already declining in his late 20s?

Or is it that Rivers simply had a bad year behind a bad O-Line?

How many people were saying that Manning was declining after his poor 2010 season? I know some people were.

Of course, that was on a Colts team with a bad O-Line. I see the same thing from Rivers.
drawing up particulars from two situations do not make the people in those situations the same.
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Old 08-13-2013, 04:54 PM    (permalink
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Let's compare Manning's 2010 season to the career highs for Rivers.

Manning: 4700 yards, 33 TDs, 66.3%, 91.9 rating
Rivers: 4710 yards, 34 TDs, 66.0%, 105.5

If Manning's 2010 season was considered poor, then Phillip Rivers' entire career has been abysmal.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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Manning never had a season as bad as RIvers from a stats or wins perspective. Its not that Rivers is old. He is just isn't playing that well. He has dropped off some. The OL and receivers are part of it but he also has been forcing things and playing poorly.

Ravens all and all are more talented than the Browns. Flacco >>> Weeden.
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:09 PM    (permalink
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I think the Chargers will be lucky to win 5 games
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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The Texans and Ravens dropoffs you have are really steep. I have a hard time seeing either of those teams being a middle of the pack or below team.
With the Texans they left a poor feeling towards them to conclude last season, especially following a hot start. I get the sense, and I can't really quantify why, but I feel we're going to see more of a early tenure Kubiak team where they underachieve compared to the talent they have.

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18 is a pretty harsh drop off for the Ravens. I'm not arguing at top 5 spot but we are clearly better than some of those teams above them.

The NFCW is a very talented division. Anyone of those teams could win against each other. I don't personally have faith in Palmer or Bradford so I see those two as the bottom two teams probably. Just because your team is more talented or better this year doesn't mean you will win more games.
The Ravens' offense worries me following the injury of Pitta added to the departure of Boldin. Flacco proved himself during the playoff run but he has had two of his most reliable targets taken away and dancing star Jacoby Jones is their second best receiver. The defense is also in a big transition from a personnel and leadership end, and for a team that barely got into the playoffs last year, I don't see an improvement on their 10 regular season wins.

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I think the Chargers will be lucky to win 5 games
I think the Chargers have a legit shot at picking in the Top 3 of the 2014 draft. If it wasn't for an absolutely terrible Raiders team in the same division, the first overall pick may be a real possibility.
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:54 PM    (permalink
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I would have no problem if you had predicted Cincinnati winning the division. They probably are the most talented team in the division (though they have the 3rd best QB). I think they will be neck-and-neck with Baltimore all year. But you said Celeveland. And they are not the most talnted team. Baltimore has them beat at receiver, quarterback, running back, and linebacker. Cleveland will be awful this year. They won't win more than 2 division games.
Baltimore has the Browns beat at wide reciever? Torrey Smith is good, the rest of their WRs are "meh". I'd actually take what the Browns have - they have more raw physical talent at WR.

RB is the least important position in the NFL and whether someone has a good RB or not doesn't really have a dramatic impact on the win-loss record. But to be fair, Trent Richardson is hardly a scrub and you could make the argument that he's better than Ray Rice at this point because Rice has lke 10,000 miles on his tires.

The Ravens have better linebackers than the Browns? Since when? You do know that Ray Lewis is retired, right? Dumervil and Suggs are good players, and *were* great players, but both are a bit past their peak now. The Ravens ILBs are non-descript. I'd take what the Browns have at LB over the next 3 years in a heart-beat.


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Rivers was never a top-3 QB. Brady, Manning, and Brees have alwasy been better than him. At best he was 4th (and I'm not saying that). They have no rushing attack, their line sucks, and their receivers blow. I suppose their defense isn't too bad. But if they even win 8 games I'll be shocked.
Again, rushing attack doesnt' really matter. Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011 with the lowest ranked rushing attack in football that year and the Packers did basically the same in 2010. The Chargers WRs are a question mark, yes, but that's not the end of the world. The OLine isn't as terrible as you think it is, especially with the rookie they got in the 2013 draft.
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Old 08-13-2013, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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Baltimore has the Browns beat at wide reciever? Torrey Smith is good, the rest of their WRs are "meh". I'd actually take what the Browns have - they have more raw physical talent at WR.
Maybe the Browns are better at receiver. Outside of the top guy, neither team is all that appetizing at the position. But Flacco's huge advantage over Weeden makes the overall passing game of Baltimore far better than Cleveland. Baltimore's running game is better as is their defense, So how exactly are the Browns a better team?
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 08-13-2013, 07:00 PM    (permalink
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You can argue certain parts of the Browns are better but the Ravens are a stronger team overall. Not 3 years from now, but right now. Suggs and Doom are still one of the top passrushing duos.

The defense will be much better.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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I think this is a make or break year for Rivers, but when talking about when he was good let's look at what he had around him

A first ballot HOFer at RB
A top level starting RB as a backup
One of the best TEs of all time (when healthy which he was then)
A deep WR corps
A monstrous o-line

Plus a pretty damn good defense. You had Williams, Casillas and Olshansky on the line. Phillips at OLB, a roided up Merriman at OLB (who at this stage many thought was better than Ware), Cromartie etc

I'm not surprised he did well in that team, in fact you could be critical and say he didn't do enough
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Old 08-14-2013, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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I think this is a make or break year for Rivers, but when talking about when he was good let's look at what he had around him

A first ballot HOFer at RB
A top level starting RB as a backup
One of the best TEs of all time (when healthy which he was then)
A deep WR corps
A monstrous o-line

Plus a pretty damn good defense. You had Williams, Casillas and Olshansky on the line. Phillips at OLB, a roided up Merriman at OLB (who at this stage many thought was better than Ware), Cromartie etc

I'm not surprised he did well in that team, in fact you could be critical and say he didn't do enough
Those were pretty damn good offenses too. I mean they scored 27-30 points a game during that time frame, and Rivers was averaging 8.5 ypa. I wouldn't say they underperformed at all from an offensive execution standpoint. They didn't fare as well as they could have in the playoffs, but all the blame can't fall on Rivers. They're horrible now, and Rivers needs to learn how to make more with less, but he was awesome during the time where the talent was there.
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Old 08-14-2013, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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AFC East:
New England 10-6
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
NY Jets 6-10

AFC North:
Baltimore 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Pittsburgh 8-8
Cleveland 7-9

AFC South
Houston 13-3
Indianapolis 6-10
Tennessee 6-10
Jacksonville 3-13

AFC West
Denver 12-4
San Diego 9-7
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 4-12

NFC East

AFC Playoffs:
1) Houston
2) Denver
3) New England
4) Baltimore
5) San Diego
6) Cincinnati
----------------
7) Pittsburgh
8) Miami

AFC Wildcard
(6) Cincinnati over (3) New England
(4) Baltimore over (5) San Diego

AFC Divisional Round
(1) Houston over (6) Cincinnati
(2) Denver over (4) Baltimore

AFC Champ.
(2) Denver over (1) Houston

NFC East
NY Giants 10-6
Dallas 9-7
Washington 7-9
Philadelphia 7-9

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Detroit 10-6
Minnesota 7-9
Chicago 6-10

NFC South
Atlanta 11-5
Carolina 9-7
New Orleans 8-8
Tampa Bay 7-9

NFC West
Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
Arizona 7-9

NFC
1) Green Bay
2) Atlanta
3) NY Giants
4) Seattle
5) San Francisco
6) Detroit
-----------
7) Dallas
8) Carolina

NFC Wildcard
(3) NY Giants over (6) Detroit
(5) San Francisco over (4) Seattle

NFC Divisional
(5) San Francisco over (1) Green Bay
(3) NY Giants over (2) Atlanta

NFC Championship
(5) San Francisco over (3) NY Giants

Super Bowl:
(5) San Francisco over (2) Denver
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Old 08-14-2013, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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I love how we were an average team without our HC and the worst defense ever and now we have our HC back and a new DC and the bucs and Panthers are going to finish ahead of us? Ok.
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Old 08-14-2013, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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I'd put the bears over the Vikings for the wildcard spot and I can't shake the feeling that the rams will slip past the 9ers or Seahawks for the nFC West's wildcard spot. The Vikings just seemed like a team that overachieved last year on the back of AD's insane season, I actually think he can go ape again and break 1800 yards, but I think ponder takes a step back and becomes an issue while the D doesn't hold up as well as they did last year.

Meanwhile I think the bears will be better with the new coaching staff, especially if Jeffrey gets it together. Marshall, Jeffrey and the Bennett's is a nice big receiving corps if the OL can be less epically awful finally. Plus I think it was time to move on from Lovie, I'll miss seeing him call a timeout to then still challenge a play he's clearly going to lose, but ol' coach T will help Jay and that offense a lot more. And that defense will still be really good as long Briggs and Peppers are two of the best at their positions, especially with those corners punching every ball and Melton rushing up the gut.

I actually think both Russell and Kaep will have some growing pains this year and one of them will see their supporting cast regress as well, not sure which but one of those teams will open the door for the rams as long as they stay healthy. Bradford finally has an OL and some dangerous weapons to spread the ball to. That'll open up the running game and their defense looks nasty, especially if they ever let Trumaine Johnson just centerfield.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 08-14-2013, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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I mean I am biased but the Vikings are MUCH improved this year. Jennings + Patterson + Harvin lite in Jarius Wright make up for the loss of Harvin and much more. Floyd makes the D line among the best in the league. CB is no longer a weakness. AD is a one more year removed from his injury. The Vikings may have overachieved last year but this year I think the Vikes are the best team in the NFC North.
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Old 08-14-2013, 02:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
I mean I am biased but the Vikings are MUCH improved this year. Jennings + Patterson + Harvin lite in Jarius Wright make up for the loss of Harvin and much more. Floyd makes the D line among the best in the league. CB is no longer a weakness. AD is a one more year removed from his injury. The Vikings may have overachieved last year but this year I think the Vikes are the best team in the NFC North.
I do like the moves you made, but I just think Ponder takes a step back and that costs you more than the gains you've made to the receiving corps, and I do think AD will be less historically dominant, and more just really awesome. And with the offense regressing that D will have a lot more to do. Plus you just barely got in last season with AD going all-time great on everyone, Ponder playing pretty well and Lovie Smith still there to look confused on the bears' sideline. If the coaching change in Chicago gives them a competent offensive structure to work around and the OL is less historically bad that would be a huge boon to a team that was in the hunt until the very end.
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Old 08-14-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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I do like the moves you made, but I just think Ponder takes a step back and that costs you more than the gains you've made to the receiving corps, and I do think AD will be less historically dominant, and more just really awesome. And with the offense regressing that D will have a lot more to do. Plus you just barely got in last season with AD going all-time great on everyone, Ponder playing pretty well and Lovie Smith still there to look confused on the bears' sideline. If the coaching change in Chicago gives them a competent offensive structure to work around and the OL is less historically bad that would be a huge boon to a team that was in the hunt until the very end.
Ponder played well? That is news to me. He completed 7 passes over 20 yards last season, and only attempted about 125 over 10 yards. His arm is decent enough that with some better receivers, and some more attempts downfield, they might be able to open up that offense a bit, making the running game even better.
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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Ponder played well? That is news to me. He completed 7 passes over 20 yards last season, and only attempted about 125 over 10 yards. His arm is decent enough that with some better receivers, and some more attempts downfield, they might be able to open up that offense a bit, making the running game even better.
Ponder played extremely well week 17 to get Minnesota into the playoffs last year...he has had some low points but he was a major factor in their most important game
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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Ponder played extremely well week 17 to get Minnesota into the playoffs last year...he has had some low points but he was a major factor in their most important game
Oh whoops, I didn't realize he was just referring to week 17.
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Old 08-14-2013, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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I love how we were an average team without our HC and the worst defense ever and now we have our HC back and a new DC and the bucs and Panthers are going to finish ahead of us? Ok.
There's a good reason why they had the worst defense ever... there's NO talent on that team on the defensive side of the ball.

You can't fix that overnight. And is Sean Payton coming back going to help the defense? No.

And Rob Ryan is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league, to boot. He's failed everywhere he's been, and right now with the Saints he has even less talent than he had at any other stop in his checkered career.

Sure, the offense will probably be good this year, but it was good last year. If you have a wretched defense, your ceiling is 8-9 wins no matter how good your offense is.
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Old 08-14-2013, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
I mean I am biased but the Vikings are MUCH improved this year. Jennings + Patterson + Harvin lite in Jarius Wright make up for the loss of Harvin and much more. Floyd makes the D line among the best in the league. CB is no longer a weakness. AD is a one more year removed from his injury. The Vikings may have overachieved last year but this year I think the Vikes are the best team in the NFC North.
Saying stuff like "Floyd makes the D Line among the best in the league" is ridiculous.

You can't count on rookies at all to make huge impacts. A small percentage do, but the vast majority of rookies play like what they are - rookies.

Maybe Floyd will be a great player down the line, maybe not. But his addition certainly won't suddenly turn a D-Line into "one of the best in the league".

Jared Allen is still good, Kevin Williams is not as good as he was but he's still decent, but outside of that I don't see much, and again, Floyd is a rookie.
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Old 08-14-2013, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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Oh whoops, I didn't realize he was just referring to week 17.
He wasn't necessarily referring to week 17...the point I was making is Ponder came through for Minnesota when they needed him most so while he has had an underwhelming beginning to his career he has shown the ability to make big plays in crunch time
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